National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

000
FLUS42 KJAX 241508 AAA
HWOJAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-251030-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
1005 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER...

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. REFER
TO THE CURRENT RIVER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF A JACKSONVILLE
TO GAINESVILLE LINE. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO OCALA LATE TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED
ONE INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF A SAINT AUGUSTINE TO OCALA LINE.

AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE
VISIBILITY MAY BE LOCALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$

ARS/SEC

000
FXUS62 KJAX 241921
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
221 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

...INCREASING RAINS ACROSS SE HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND WED...

.SYNOPSIS...S EXTENSION OF E PLAINS UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DIG
OVER THE W GOMEX. THIS IS PRODUCING A BALL OF TSTMS OVER THAT AREA
WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE N GOMEX AND THE
LOCAL COUNTY WARNING AREA. REMAINDER OF GULF AREA HAS DESTABILIZED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS..WITH SOME EVEN MOVING INLAND
OVER THE SW PORTION OF OUR AREA IN MARION COUNTY. BENEATH THE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...RATHER SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR 60 OVER SE GA TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR S ZONES.

.SHORT TERM...MODELS IN BETTER AND BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
PROGRESSION OF RAINFALL TONIGHT AND WED. NAM AND GFS NOW DEVELOP
CLOSED SFC LOW OVER THE E GOMEX MIDDAY WED BEFORE A DEEPER LOW
FORMS OFF OUR ATLANTIC COAST LATE WED. PRECIP FIELDS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS WELL...ALTHO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES REMAIN
IN THE GFS...PARTICULARLY E OF THE CENTRAL FL COAST. LOOKS LIKE
HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FOCUS FROM OUR SW ZONES ACROSS EXTREME NE FL
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THRU A GOOD DEAL OF THE DAY ON WED
BEFORE THE ATLANTIC LOW DEEPENS AND DRAGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW. MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE GENERATED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT BUT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE A FACTOR OVER THE SE ZONES. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1 INCH OVER THE SE 1/3 OF OUR
AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN TSTM ACTIVITY. WILL MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE WED MORNING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SOME HEAVY RAINS EVEN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING WED AFTERNOON OVER THE SAME AREAS.

THE OTHER IMPACT FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS OVER OUR SE ZONES. THE NAM BRINGS A MARGINAL SEVERE
WIND THREAT INTO OUR EXTREME SE ZONES DURING THE DAY WED WHILE THE
GFS HINTS AT SOME ROTATING STORMS IN THE SAME AREA. WILL LET THIS
MORNINGS UPDATED HWO RIDE FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS GET MORE
SPECIFIC IF NEEDED. THANKS TO TAE/TBW/MLB FOR COORDINATION.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP FOG
FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE OR WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST
INDICATED PATCHY FOG AREA-WIDE. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND THE COOLER NAM MOS
FOR WED DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND. IF ANYTHING...THE NEXT FRONT MAY MOVE MORE QUICKLY THRU
THE AREA. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU DURING THE
DAY MON WITH A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.
GFS HAS MARGINAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE DUE TO
LIMITED DURATION OF RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BE SO DYNAMIC...MAY STILL BE A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDS IN LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE VERY SLOW TO
LIFT AND WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AND RAIN DEVELOPING
TONIGHT...WILL BE A VERY CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS. FOR NOW HAVE
BROAD-BRUSHED A BRIEF VISIT TO MVFR CIGS BTWN 20-02Z BEFORE CONDS
DETERIORATE BACK INTO IFR CONDS WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AFTER
02Z...THEN HAVE TRENDED EVEN FURTHER INTO LIFR CIGS IN MODERATE
RAIN AFTER THE 06Z/08Z TIME FRAME THROUGH 18Z ON WED. GUIDANCE WAS
VERY LOW WITH CEILINGS AT 100-200 FEET AFTER 02Z TONIGHT...AND MY
FORECAST WAS A BIT CLOSER TO THE 300-500 FT RANGE FOR NOW. LEFT
ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF SET FOR NOW...BUT KGNV HAS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE JUST NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN STATIC
ACRS MOST OF THE WATERS AS LONG AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOESN`T PULL
TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST ON THE FRONT ON WED AND WILL KICK WINDS BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN SPEED TO SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS WED NIGHT AND THU...THEN WITH STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP IN NORTHWEST FLOW THU NIGHT AND
FRI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS WILL DEVELOP AT THE LEAST OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND VERY CLOSE ACRS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS...STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY HEADLINES. WINDS TO DECREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND FAIRLY QUICKLY TO SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN
ON NORTHWEST WINDS NORTHEAST FLORIDA ZONES MAY SEE MIN RH DIP TO
AROUND 35% WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH BUT APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL FOR ANY MENTION OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACRS NORTHEAST FLORIDA MAY SEE 3-5 HR DURATION OF
CRITICAL RHS WITH DRY AIR OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  64  43  66 /  30  30   0   0
SSI  56  63  49  67 /  60  70   0   0
JAX  57  64  47  69 /  70  80  10   0
SGJ  62  67  53  70 /  70  80  20   0
GNV  60  67  48  68 /  70  80  10   0
OCF  62  69  50  70 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

CARROLL/HESS/PRESNALL

000
NWUS52 KJAX 231623
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1123 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE WEIRSDALE         28.99N 81.89W
11/22/2009                   MARION             FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED A FEW POWERLINES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES
            ALONG 156TH PLACE ROAD IN WEIRSDALE. TIME IS ESTIMATED
            AND BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.


&&

$$

JHESS



000
NWUS52 KJAX 231617
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1117 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W WAYNESVILLE         31.22N 81.85W
11/22/2009                   BRANTLEY           GA   UTILITY COMPANY

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS BLEW DOWN TREES ONTO POWER LINES.
            POWER HAD TO BE RESTORED TO AREAS ALONG AND NEAR HIGHWAY
            82 AND STATE ROAD 110 ACROSS EASTERN BRANTLEY AND WESTERN
            GLYNN COUNTIES BY THE OKEFENOKEE RURAL ELECTRIC
            MEMBERSHIP CORPORATION. THE TIME OF THE EVENT WAS BASED
            ON DOPPLER RADAR.


&&

$$

AENYEDI

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241742
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N22W 6N37W 6N41W 7N57W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 39W FROM
4N TO 13N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-16N BETWEEN
25W-39W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS N-NW OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 22N42W TO 10N47W AND IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC FURTHER
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT SKIRTS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST
FROM GALVESTON TO CORPUS CHRISTI. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM CORPUS CHRISTI S THROUGH BROWNSVILLE TO 23N97W. MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 92W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS ALONG 96W. ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...A
STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM NEAR
MELBOURNE TO SARASOTA AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N85W 26N90W TO
24N93W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N
BETWEEN 83W-94W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE GULF E OF 92W AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS...STRONG NLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST TO FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 18N BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AS STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS CONVERGE ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 13N
BETWEEN 76W-85W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S
OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W AND CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N74W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
MELBOURNE. THE FRONT LACKS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 72W EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N72W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS
COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR
OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. ONE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 36N66W TO 31N58W
AND IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED ALONG 31N
BETWEEN 54W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 53W-62W. THE SECOND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 48W N OF 25N AND SUPPORTS A
1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW ALONG 30N50W TO THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 31N54W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SW FROM THE 1012 MB LOW TO 26N50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
42W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS NEAR 33N17W TO 20N45W.

$$
HUFFMAN

000
ACUS01 KWNS 241953
SWODY1
SPC AC 241952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...IA/IL AND S TX AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
/EVENING WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MO/IA
CLOSED LOW BEFORE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.  FARTHER S...THE TRAILING
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND WILL PASS
DEEP S TX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  IN THE MEANTIME... SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN
THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

...CENTRAL/S FL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM INVOF A STALLED FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  OVERNIGHT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS WILL INCREASE SOME AS A SPEED MAX IN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET...AND A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT...MOVE OVER THE GULF AND APPROACH THE W COAST OF FL EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN ONE OR MORE OF THE GULF CLUSTERS...AND
MORE DISCRETE CELLS IN THE MODIFYING AIR MASS ALONG THE FL E COAST.
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY
MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

..THOMPSON.. 11/24/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/

...CNTRL/S FL...
SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INVOF AND S OF
WEAK W-E FRONT LOCATED E/W CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...WHERE SBCAPE WILL
APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG.  RELATIVELY WEAK LOW TO
MID LVL SHEAR AND MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR
THREAT TODAY.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY MOVE INTO/DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED AS WIND FIELD/WAA
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID/HIGH LEVEL GULF IMPULSE.
COUPLED WITH BACKED LOW-LVL FLOW...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW DISCRETE OR
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS.  THESE COULD POSE A LOW CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
AN ISOLD TORNADO EARLY WED.

000
ACUS02 KWNS 241620
SWODY2
SPC AC 241619

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MO/IA WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT NEWD
OVER NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN AB/SK DIGS
SEWD AND EVOLVES INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW OVER IL/IND BY EARLY
THURSDAY.  THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A
RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WITH NO APPRECIABLE RISK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL
DURING THE DAY AS A WEAK SRN STREAM WAVE CROSSES THE PENINSULA AND
INTERACTS WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL.

...CENTRAL/S FL DURING THE DAY...
A SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX NOW MOVING FROM NE MEXICO TO THE WRN GULF
WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.  A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID
LEVEL WAVE AND WARM ADVECTION N OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF.  A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE AND MOVE
EWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
WILL BE RATHER MODEST OVER FL GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AN INCREASE
IN LOW-MID LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED/ORGANIZED STORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  STILL...THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INFLUENCE OF
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SUGGEST THAT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ARE MOST APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.

..THOMPSON.. 11/24/2009

000
ACUS03 KWNS 240715
SWODY3
SPC AC 240714

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...SYNOPSIS/FCST...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT UPR FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON
THANKSGIVING...FEATURING A HIGH-AMPLITUDE POLAR JET AND MODERATELY
ACTIVE SRN STREAM.  THE DEEP COLD TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE ERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY WILL MIGRATE TO THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A FRESH CP AIR MASS WILL PENETRATE S OF
CUBA AND DEEP INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR S FL/FL STRAITS
EARLY ON THURSDAY...BUT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY.

MEANWHILE...A NEW UPR TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN THE PAC NW EARLY ON
THANKSGIVING AND THEN PROGRESS INLAND BY EARLY FRIDAY.  SYSTEM WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD MID-LVL TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 30 DEG C AND
SPORADIC TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME
ACROSS CSTL ORE/WA DURING THE DAY.

FINALLY...A SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE SEEMS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NRN MEXICO AND ROTATE NEWD TOWARD THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
TYPICAL STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND MOISTENING OVER THE MEXICAN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW TSTMS THANKSGIVING DAY...A FEW OF
WHICH MAY DEVELOP/MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VLY OF SWRN TX THURSDAY
NIGHT.

..RACY.. 11/24/2009

000
ACUS11 KWNS 200128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200128
TXZ000-200300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S TX AND THE LOWER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200128Z - 200300Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING EPISODIC SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT.  A WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING
OVER THE LOWER TX COAST WITHIN STRENGTHENING WWA REGIME ASSOCIATED
WITH MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W.  AS OF 0117Z...CRP
RADAR DATA INDICATED A STORM EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER CORPUS CHRISTI BAY ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF A LARGER COMPLEX OF
STORMS.  AS MENTIONED IN 01Z OUTLOOK...AIR MASS IS RATHER MOIST
WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVERNIGHT WITH MLCAPE OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

LATEST TRENDS IN CRP VWP DO INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WHICH IS RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION.  AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. IT APPEARS
THAT A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED
BY THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...AND THUS A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..MEAD.. 11/20/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   27279724 27169817 27929850 28849834 29249781 29279712
            29069644 28529609 27759650 27279724

000
FNUS52 KJAX 241907
FWFJAX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
207 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND TRACKS INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE FLORIDA PORTION TONIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WHILE ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY AND END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ON TAP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE WEEKEND AS WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH AND DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 15 MPH OVER THE WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS OVER 15 MPH ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.

DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL CLOSE TO CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND MARGINAL RED FLAG EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM
OUT CLOSE TO CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL BUT WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND DURATIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY RED FLAG EVENTS.

GAZ153-154-165-166-251000-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
207 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     60           70           0            0
WEATHER TYPE          SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE
TEMP                  53           63           45           68
RH (%)                100          79           100          39
20FT WND MPH (AM)                  N  8 G15                  NW  8 G15
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  3        N  8 G16     NW  4        W 13 G18
PRECIP DURATION       5            5
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.22         0.24         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            2            1            1
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300          1800         300          3400
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NE  7        N 21         NW 12        W 21
DISPERSION INDEX      3            26           3            64
MAX LVORI             10                        9

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$

FLZ024-025-033-038-251000-
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-
207 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        MCLEAR
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           80           10           0
WEATHER TYPE          SHOWERS      TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE
TEMP                  56           68           47           70
RH (%)                100          81           100          38
20FT WND MPH (AM)                  N  8 G16                  NW  8 G15
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  5        N 10 G18     N  6         NW 12 G17
PRECIP DURATION       6            7            1
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 AM
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.28         0.49         0.02         0.00
LAL                   2            2            1            1
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300          1800         300          3700
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NE  9        N 20         NW 14        NW 20
DISPERSION INDEX      5            29           7            60
MAX LVORI             10                        9

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND
15 MPH.

$$

FLZ031-032-036-037-040-251000-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-MARION-
207 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       CLOUDY       PCLDY        MCLEAR
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           80           10           0
WEATHER TYPE          TSTMS        TSTMS        SHOWERS      NONE
TEMP                  58           68           48           69
RH (%)                100          78           100          38
20FT WND MPH (AM)                  N  7                      NW  7
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  5        N 10 G15     N  5         NW 11 G16
PRECIP DURATION       6            7            1
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   1 AM
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.32         0.53         0.02         0.00
LAL                   2            2            1            1
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300          1700         400          3700
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NE  7        N 17         NW  9        NW 17
DISPERSION INDEX      4            25           5            57
MAX LVORI             9                         9

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$

FLZ020>023-030-035-251000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-GILCHRIST-
207 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     70           60           0            0
WEATHER TYPE          SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE
TEMP                  55           65           43           68
RH (%)                100          71           100          35
20FT WND MPH (AM)                  N  7                      NW  7
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  3        N  7         N  4         NW 11 G16
PRECIP DURATION       6            6
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   7 PM
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.26         0.17         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300          1500         300          3400
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NE  6        N 15         NW  7        NW 18
DISPERSION INDEX      2            23           3            61
MAX LVORI             10                        9

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.

$$

GAZ132>136-149>152-162>164-251000-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
207 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU

CLOUD COVER           CLOUDY       MCLDY        MCLEAR       MCLEAR
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           40           0            0
WEATHER TYPE          SHOWERS      SHOWERS      NONE         NONE
TEMP                  51           63           43           67
RH (%)                100          68           100          37
20FT WND MPH (AM)                  N  5                      NW  7
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  2        N  6         NW  2        W 12 G17
PRECIP DURATION       2            1
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         CONTINUING
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   1 PM
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.12         0.09         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300          1800         300          3400
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   NE  5        N 14         NW  6        NW 21
DISPERSION INDEX      2            20           3            61
MAX LVORI             10                        9

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.

$$

000
FNUS72 KJAX 241550
SMFJAX

NORTHEAST FLORIDA DISPERSION FORECAST UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1050 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

FLZ020>023-030-031-035-036-242000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-
1050 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

                      TONIGHT

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  3
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   E  6
DISPERSION INDEX      2
MAX LVORI             10

$$

FLZ032-037-242000-
CLAY-PUTNAM-
1050 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

                      TONIGHT

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  5
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   E  6
DISPERSION INDEX      3
MAX LVORI             10

$$

FLZ040-242000-
MARION-
1050 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

                      TONIGHT

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  5
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   E  7
DISPERSION INDEX      4
MAX LVORI             9

$$

FLZ024-025-242000-
NASSAU-DUVAL-
1050 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

                      TONIGHT

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  5
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   E  6
DISPERSION INDEX      2
MAX LVORI             10

$$

FLZ033-038-242000-
ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-
1050 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

                      TONIGHT

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY
20FT WND MPH (PM)     NE  6
MIXING HEIGHT(FT-AGL) 300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   E  9
DISPERSION INDEX      4
MAX LVORI             10

$$

000
FZUS52 KJAX 241908
CWFJAX

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL
OUT TO 60 NM

AMZ400-250400-
SYNOPSIS FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 60 NM-
230 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND TRACKS INTO THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND AS WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH.

$$

AMZ450-452-454-250400-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
230 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
INLAND WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...
THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...NORTH WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. INLAND WATERS
A MODERATE CHOP. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
INLAND WATERS CHOPPY.
.FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.
.SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND
WATERS A LIGHT CHOP.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. INLAND WATERS SMOOTH.

$$

AMZ470-472-474-250400-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
230 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...NORTH WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6
FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 25 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.
.FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 20 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
.SATURDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2
FEET.

$$

000
FZUS52 KJAX 240857
SRFJAX

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-242100-
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE...
ST AUGUSTINE...PALM COAST...BRUNSWICK...ST MARYS
357 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: LOW. RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ARE
LIKELY TO BE WEAK BUT MAY POSE A DANGER TO POOR SWIMMERS.
HOWEVER...THEY ARE STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT IN THE VICINITY
OF JETTIES...INLETS...AND PIERS. KNOW HOW TO SWIM AND HEED THE
ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL.

WIND: NORTHEAST 10 MPH.

SURF: BREAKERS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FEET.

WATER TEMPERATURE: AROUND 70 DEGREES.

UV INDEX: 2...IN THE LOW RANGE.

OUTLOOK: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

$$

DEESE

000
FZUS72 KJAX 231146
MWSJAX

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
646 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

AMZ450-452-454-231515-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
646 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

THROUGH 10 AM...AREAS OF FOG...SOME OF IT DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES OF
LESS THAN 1 NM...WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS. MARINE INTERESTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION AND
FIX THEIR POSITION ELECTRONICALLY OR BY BEARINGS WHEN ENCOUNTERING
DENSE FOG. KEEP A LOOKOUT FOR OTHER VESSELS...BUOYS AND BREAKWATERS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

$$

ARS

000
FGUS52 KALR 241513
RVFJAX
RIVER FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA GA
FORECASTS INCLUDE FUTURE RAINFALL IN 6 HOUR INCREMENTS
1007 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
:

:    FORECAST ISSUED BY GA- ALTAMAHA FORECASTER
:
:*************************************************************************
:CHARLOTTE - Altamaha River
:FLOOD STAGE  15.0     ACTION STAGE  13.0
:
:LATEST STAGE    16.84 FT AT 945 AM EST ON 1124
:FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND 6PM ON 11/25/2009
.ER CHRG1    1124 E DC200911241007/DH13/HGIFF/DIH6
:24HR QPF APPLIED    7AM        1PM        7PM        1AM
.E1 :1124:              /      16.8/      16.5/      16.1
.E2 :1125:   /      15.7/      15.3/      14.9/      14.6
.E3 :1126:   /      14.3/      14.0/      13.7/      13.5
.E4 :1127:   /      13.2/      13.0/      12.8/      12.7
.E5 :1128:   /      12.5/      12.3/      12.2/      12.1
.E6 :1129:   /      12.0
:6HR QPF VALUES  0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00
:*************************************************************************
:BAXLEY - Altamaha River
:FLOOD STAGE  74.5     ACTION STAGE  72.5
:
:LATEST STAGE    78.26 FT AT 945 AM EST ON 1124
:FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND 11AM ON 11/29/2009
.ER BAXG1    1124 E DC200911241007/DH13/HGIFF/DIH6
:24HR QPF APPLIED    7AM        1PM        7PM        1AM
.E1 :1124:              /      78.1/      78.0/      77.8
.E2 :1125:   /      77.6/      77.3/      77.0/      76.8
.E3 :1126:   /      76.6/      76.3/      76.1/      75.9
.E4 :1127:   /      75.7/      75.5/      75.4/      75.2
.E5 :1128:   /      75.1/      75.0/      74.8/      74.7
.E6 :1129:   /      74.6
:6HR QPF VALUES  0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00
:*************************************************************************
:DOCTORTOWN - Altamaha River
:FLOOD STAGE  14.0     ACTION STAGE  12.0
:
:LATEST STAGE    11.86 FT AT 900 AM EST ON 1124
.AR : CREST : DCTG1 1126 E DC200911241007/DH19/HGIFFX        12.2
.ER DCTG1    1124 E DC200911241007/DH13/HGIFF/DIH6
:24HR QPF APPLIED    7AM        1PM        7PM        1AM
.E1 :1124:              /      11.9/      12.0/      12.0
.E2 :1125:   /      12.1/      12.1/      12.1/      12.1
.E3 :1126:   /      12.2/      12.2/      12.2/      12.2
.E4 :1127:   /      12.2/      12.1/      12.1/      12.1
.E5 :1128:   /      12.0/      12.0/      12.0/      11.9
.E6 :1129:   /      11.9
:6HR QPF VALUES  0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00
:*************************************************************************
:WAYCROSS - Satilla River
:FLOOD STAGE  16.0     ACTION STAGE  14.0
:
:LATEST STAGE     4.74 FT AT 945 AM EST ON 1124
.ER AYSG1    1124 E DC200911241007/DH13/HGIFF/DIH6
:24HR QPF APPLIED    7AM        1PM        7PM        1AM
.E1 :1124:              /       4.8/       4.8/       4.8
.E2 :1125:   /       4.8/       4.7/       4.7/       4.7
.E3 :1126:   /       4.7/       4.7/       4.7/       4.7
.E4 :1127:   /       4.7/       4.7/       4.7/       4.7
.E5 :1128:   /       4.7/       4.7/       4.7/       4.7
.E6 :1129:   /       4.7
:6HR QPF VALUES  0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00
:***********************************************************************
:COMMENT
:
:
:
.AR ALR 1124 E Dt200911241007/YIDRZ   12: cm
:
:...END OF MESSAGE...

$$