FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
130 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2005


...FINAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   RIVER, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, AND MUCH OF
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

                      
STREAMFLOW DATA PROVIDED BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND 
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS. 
 
   
INTRODUCTION...

THIS IS THE FINAL OF TWO SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI. 
THIS OUTLOOK INCLUDES CURRENT RIVER AND LAKE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. ALSO, THE OVERALL 
FLOOD POTENTIAL OF EACH RIVER BASIN WILL BE ASSESSED.  THE OUTLOOK 
ALSO INCLUDES A SPRING PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA.


ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL WAS ABOVE NORMAL IN FEBRUARY OVER SOUTH AND 
EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI, SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR 
NORMAL OVER THESE AREAS.  NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS 
PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WELL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION 
IS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST 
ARKANSAS WHERE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


RAINFALL OUTLOOK...

LIGHT RAINFALL IS FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MODERATE RAINFALL IS 
FORECAST JUST BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND.  CURRENT LONGER RANGE WEATHER 
MODELS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL EARLY IN THE WEEK OF THE 20TH OF 
MARCH. 

THE 90 DAY SEASONAL RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF MARCH,
APRIL, AND MAY CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST 
LOUISIANA, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI.
ELSEWHERE, NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.


RIVER...STREAM...AND LAKE CONDITIONS...

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN...
SO FAR THIS WINTER, SNOWFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE UPPER 
MISSISSIPPI AND UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN NEAR TO 
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 2 TO 
16 INCHES ACROSS EXTREME UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 
VALLEY AND 1 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE GENERALLY 0.5 TO  2.5 INCHES 
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND 0.25 TO  1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE 
UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
  
AFTER A SIGNIFICANT JANUARY CREST AT LEVELS NOT REACHED SINCE 1997 AND
A SECONDARY RISE IN FEBRUARY, THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS CURRENTLY 
EXPERIENCING MINOR TO MODERATE FALLS.  AT THIS TIME, NO FLOODING IS 
OCCURRING AND NONE IS FORECAST FROM ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ. 

STREAMFLOWS ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS RANGE FROM 
74% OF NORMAL AT CAIRO TO 137% AT NATCHEZ...SEE THE CHART BELOW FOR 
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOWING PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS: 
  
                                  02/17  3/10   
                      THEBES IL    283%   77%   
                       CAIRO IL    142%   74%   
                     MEMPHIS TN    107%   80%   
                      HELENA AR    107%  119%   
               ARKANSAS CITY AR    120%  100%   
                   VICKSBURG MS    151%  120%   
                     NATCHEZ MS    175%  137%   
           RED RIVER LANDING LA    174%  134%   
                 BATON ROUGE LA    145%  124%   
                 NEW ORLEANS LA    135%  113%   
  
BASED ON OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS, EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, 
AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL/SNOWMELT PATTERNS, THE FLOOD POTENTIAL 
HAS DECREASED TO AVERAGE ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 
ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ. THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CRESTS WILL DEPEND 
ON THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF  ANY UPSTREAM ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW 
COVER AND RESULTANT SNOWMELT; COUPLED, WITH THE FREQUENCY, 
INTENSITY, AND EXTENT OF SPRING RAINS.  


OUACHITA/BLACK RIVER BASINS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST 
ARKANSAS...
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE 
LOWER OUACHITA BASIN IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. 
NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE OUACHITA/BLACK TRIBUTARIES IN 
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. STREAMFLOWS ARE BELOW 
SEASONAL NORMALS ALONG THE TENSAS, BOEUF, BAYOU MACON, AND THE BLACK 
RIVER MAINSTEM. OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE 
GIVEN BELOW:

                                       2/17  3/10
BLACK RIVER                  ACME LA   118%   58%

BASED ON OBSERVED SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS, 
AND AN ABOVE NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERN, AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD 
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.  

YAZOO AND BIG BLACK BASINS IN MISSISSIPPI... 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR 
THE YAZOO AND BIG BLACK BASINS IN MISSISSIPPI. NO FLOODING IS 
OCCURRING OR FORECAST TO OCCUR.  STREAMFLOWS ARE RUNNING BELOW 
SEASONAL NORMALS.  OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN 
BELOW.

                                       2/17  3/10
YAZOO RIVER              GREENWOOD MS  105%   89%
BIG BLACK RIVER               WEST MS  100%   38%
BIG BLACK RIVER             BOVINA MS  100%   72%


PERCENT OF AVAILABLE FLOOD CONTROL STORAGES IN THE YAZOO FLOOD 
CONTROL STRUCTURES:
 
                                       2/17  3/10
ARKABUTLA RESERVOIR                    97%    99%
SARDIS RESERVOIR                       78%    75%
ENID RESERVOIR                         75%    75%
GRENADA RESERVOIR                      73%    80%


BASED ON OBSERVED FLOWS, CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE, AND ABOVE NORMAL 
SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS, THE FLOOD POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED TO 
AVERAGE FOR BOTH THE YAZOO AND BIG BLACK BASINS. 
   

PEARL BASIN IN MISSISSIPPI...
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE 
UPPER PEARL RIVER BASIN AFTER RECENT RAINFALL AND AT SEASONAL 
NORMALS ACROSS THE LOWER PEARL RIVER BASIN. NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY 
OCCURRING. OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS ON THE PEARL RIVER ARE RUNNING BELOW
NORMAL EXCEPT AROUND THE JACKSON AREA WHERE STREAMFLOWS ARE ABOVE 
NORMAL. SOME OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                      2/17  3/10
PEARL RIVER              CARTHAGE MS  105%   61%
PEARL RIVER               JACKSON MS  123%  128%
PEARL RIVER             MONTICELLO MS 181%   69%


BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS, AND 
NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS, THE FLOOD POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED
TO AVERAGE FOR THE UPPER AND LOWER PEARL RIVER BASIN.
 

PASCAGOULA BASIN IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...  
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE 
PASCAGOULA BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MERIDIAN AREA WHERE SOIL 
MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. NO FLOODING IS 
OCCURRING AND OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR OR 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS 
ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                      2/17  3/10
LEAF RIVER                COLLINS MS  110%  122%
LEAF RIVER            HATTIESBURG MS  118%   70%
CHICKASAWHAY RIVER     ENTERPRISE MS  119%  110% 
BLACK CREEK              BROOKLYN MS   63%   38%
 
BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS, AND 
NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS, THE FLOOD POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED 
TO AVERAGE FOR THE PASCAGOULA RIVER BASIN. 
  
HOMOCHITTO AND BAYOU PIERRE BASINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE AT SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN 
MISSISSIPPI. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS ARE 
CURRENTLY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. THE OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL 
STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW:

                                      2/17  3/10
BAYOU PIERRE                WILLOWS MS  90%  27%
HOMOCHITTO                  ROSETTA MS 116%  46%
 
BASED ON CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS, AND 
NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS, THE FLOOD POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED 
TO AVERAGE FOR THE HOMOCHITTO AND BAYOU PIERRE BASINS IN 
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI. 

THE IS IS THE FINAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK SCHEDULED FOR 
2005. 

$$