ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 181501
MKC AC 181501

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 181500Z - 191200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0431...VALID TIL 1600Z
REF WW NUMBER 0432...VALID TIL 1600Z
REF WW NUMBER 0433...VALID TIL 1600Z
REF WW NUMBER 0434...VALID TIL 1800Z
REF WW NUMBER 0435...VALID TIL 1800Z
REF WW NUMBER 0436...VALID TIL 1900Z
REF WW NUMBER 0437...VALID TIL 2100Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR PTNS OF KY..TN..NRN AL..NRN
GA..NRN SC..NC..VA..AND SRN WV. AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
ILM CAE GAD TUP DYR PAH EVV HTS WAL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS
45 N HOU 20 E SHV 35 NW HOT SGF 15 SSW 3OI 30 N PIA FWA CLE BFD
ISP ...CONT... 15 SE SAV TOI BTR 35 ESE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S LRD 20 SW CLL
20 NW GGG 15 NNW FYV 25 SSE TOP 40 N FNB 30 ESE FOD MSN 25 NNW MTC
BUF 40 W GFL PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE ABQ 15 W E03
IGM 45 SSE BIH 50 NNW SAC 35 SE LMT 40 E BNO 30 W MSO 45 W GTF
40 ENE GTF 40 SW GGW 45 WSW RAP 45 WSW SNY 30 E DEN PUB RTN
35 SSE ABQ.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
14Z SFC MAP SHOWS LOW PRES IN CNTRL MO WITH UNSTBL AMS OVER SERN
PART OF THE STATE. UPR LOW WILL MOVE THRU MO AND THEN WEAKEN TNGT
OVER IL AND IND. EXPANDED SLGT RISK AREA A LTL TO THE NW TO ACCOUNT
FOR HAIL THRT NEAR THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTBY IN THE
WARM SECTOR EXPC ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SRN END OF THE COOL AMS
TO RESULT IN SUF ELEVATED INSTBY TO MAINTAIN A HAIL THRT N OF THE
BNDRY AS THE ENTIRE SYS LIFTS TO THE NE.

FURTHER E...A LINE OF TSTMS WITH DMG WINDS CONTS EWD THRU W VA. AMS
ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC IS UNSTBL WITH 14Z SFC BASED CAPE FROM 1000
J/KG ACRS CNTRL VA TO ARND 2500 J/KG IN ERN NC. H8 CHART SHOWS AXIS
OF LLJ FROM NERN AR THRU WRN KY AND WRN TN AND EXTENDING E THRU MD.
STG THERMAL AND MSTR ADVTN WILL MAINTAIN RISK OF LINE OF TSTMS WITH
DMG WINDS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. LINE MAY BUILD SWD THRU THE
CAROLINAS WHERE INSTBY WILL BE VERY HIGH THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...
PSBL SEA BREEZE CNVGNC GIVEN HOT TEMPS INLAND COULD RESULT IN SVR
TSTM INITIATION IN ERN NC THIS AFTN WHERE MID LVL WLY FLOW OF 40
KTS WILL PROVIDE FVRBL SHEAR.

WILL MAINTAIN MDT RISK AREA TO THE W ACRS WRN KY/WRN TN EVEN THOUGH
INITIAL LINE HAS GENERALLY PASSED TO THE E. AMS WILL CONT VERY
UNSTBL IN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN APCH OF UPR SHRTWV TO THE NW THE
LOW LVL SLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO INCRS IN THE WARM AMS...CONTRIBUTING
TO LOW LVL CNVCNG WHICH IS EXPCD TO RESULT IN RE-INITIATION AHD OF
THE CDFNT IN AN AREA OF FVRBL WIND FIELDS ALF.
 
..BAKER.. 05/18/95

...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
H5 THERMAL TROF OVR NWRN U.S. MOVG SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN MT BY LATE
THIS AFTN. ISOLD TSTMS AGAIN EXPCD OVR CNTRL/NRN INTRMTRGN INTO
PTNS OF NRN RCKYS AS AMS CONTS MRGLLY UNSTBL.   
 
..GRANT.. 05/18/95

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