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National Weather Service Forecast OfficeHouston/Galveston, Texas | |||||
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The category is defined by the above wind speeds. The surge heights are estimates as other factors such as size of the storm, direction of movement and speed of movement will also determine how high the storm surge might be. The 1900 storm was rated a Category 4. Only two Category 5 hurricanes struck the United States in the last century, one in the Florida Keys in 1935 and Hurricane Camille in Mississippi in 1969. The Indianola, Texas storm of 1886 was probably a Category 5 storm. Direct hits in the Houston/Galveston area include the 1900 and 1915 storms as Category 4 and 1909 and Alicia (1983) as Category 3. The hurricane is defined by its winds. The force exerted by the wind is related to the square of the wind speed, so a doubling of the wind speed increases the force exerted by a factor of 4; a tripling of wind speed by a factor of 9. Thus the relatively small increase of wind for each category results in much higher damage potential. In a Category 1 storm there is minimal damage from wind to buildings, mobile homes and RVs being the exception. With a Category 2 storm, some roofing, window and door damage begins. Category 3 storms begin to produce widespread damage to windows and roofs. At Category 4 and 5 levels you begin to see total failure of residential buildings and some commercial structures. While defined by wind, the greatest potential for catastrophe in our area is the storm surge produced by the winds. As a hurricane approaches, water is forced up first over the shallow continental shelf then over the land. The reason for such wide area of innundation on risk area maps is the very gradual slope of land, starting with the continental shelf extending out over 100 miles in the Gulf. The elevations of land inland through the Clear Lake City area are mostly 20 feet or less. Moreover, since 1900, the land elevation in the Bay area communities has lowered some 6 to 8 feet. This has major implications in that much of the land that did not flood in the 1900 storm would now flood if a similar storm happened in 2000. Most of the area south of Ellington Field and east of the Gulf Freeway are in the potential surge zone. Over 600,000 people live within the 5 risk zones. It has been my experience over the past 8 hurricane seasons talking to residents that many, if not most, are unaware that their property is in the hurricane surge zone, especially for Category 3 and greater storms. This is not surprising since there has been no recent hurricane directly hitting here to cause such a surge. What has changed since 1900? It is important to note that although significant improvements have been made in forecasting hurricanes, there is still around 100 mile error in 24 hour track forecasts and several hundred mile error at 72 hours. Also, much less skill exists in forecasting the intensity of hurricanes. There is frequently no skill in forecasting the rapid intensification that some hurricanes (Bret, 1999 and Opal, 1995, for example) undergo. Communication of warning and forecast information has vastly improved, even since Hurricane Alicia. The ability to send high quality images of radar and satellite, the growth of 24 hour news and weather (e.g. CNN and The Weather Channel), and the rapid growth of the Internet allows us to be better informed during a hurricane threat. Another major change over the last century is the tremendous growth in population in the hurricane risk areas. In 1900, most Bay Area communities numbered their populations in the 100s or less. Even in 1961, when Carla struck the area, the population was less than 1/4 what it is today. Now it has been 17 years since Alicia. Growth, combined with the highly transient nature of our population, means that a significant percentage of the population has never experienced a major hurricane. The number 1 action that saves lives from the threat of a major hurricane is evacuation from the areas subject to surge. In 1900, no such evacuations were planned. For a Category 4 or 5 hurricane, over 600,000 people must leave. Experience in Florida and the Carolinas shows than many more people not in the surge zones will also evacuate. Possibly 1 million people will try to evacuate should a storm like the 1900 storm approach. Can a 1900 Storm Catastrophe happen in 2000? All the ingredients for catastrophe exist today. One element in the recipe for catastrophe in 2000 is the potential for a poor forecast of a storm that eventually hit a densely populated area, such as the Houston/Galveston area. The communication element in the recipe for catastrophe in 2000 is tied to the quality of the information. If conflicting i nformation or consistently inaccurate information is delivered, the wrong decisions could be made concerning an approaching hurricane. A largely "hurricane inexperienced" population is another ingredient in the recipe for catastrophe in 2000. Because of our location, most will leave through the city of Houston. It is estimated that more than 24 hours is needed to fully evacuate the risk areas. That means the decision to evacuate will be made certainly before a hurricane warning is issued and probably before the watch. The need to make the evacuation decision so far in advance when much uncertainty in the forecast exists is a major ingredient in the recipe for catastrophe. Experience elsewhere shows 10 to 30% won't go - that equates to 100-300,000 people for a category 4 or 5. The key to avoiding such a catastrophe is community wide preparedness.This includes individuals such as you and I. If you do nothing else, learn whether and when to evacuate, then when told to do so, leave!! A decision to evacuate for a major storm is made when the storm is still 36 hours from landfall. The probability of a direct hit at that time is on the order of 20%. If you were unfortunate enough to go through five such evacuations, for four of them you would come home to no damages whatsoever. The reason we ask you to do this is to avoid the one storm that direct hits the area and prevent what happened 100 years ago on September 8, 1900. 
The Houston Chapter of the AMS will have their next meeting on September 8 at the Ocean Grill Restaurant on the Sea Wall in Galveston. The meeting is being held to commemorate the 1900 Storm. We will have several speakers who are very knowledgeable on the subject giving short presentations. The meeting will last from 5pm to 7pm. The cost of the meeting including your meal is $25. All tickets must be purchased in advance from a Houston Chapter of the AMS. Further information on this meeting and the local chapter can be found at their new website http://www.houstonams.org. 
2000 Starts Out Dry... ...But Rains Return In Spring By Charles Roeseler The year 2000 started out the way 1999 ended...DRY! Most of Southeast Texas reported below normal rainfall for January, February and March. Only the extreme northern part of the region reported above normal rainfall in January. Below normal rainfall began in August of 1999 and continued through the fall and winter months finally coming to an end this spring. Rainfall totals approached normal levels in April and most stations reported above normal rainfall in May. The August through March period was the driest period ever recorded for the Houston area. Only 10.90 inches of rain fell at Houston's Intercontinental Airport during this time period. The previous driest period occurred back in 1917-18 when 11.42 inches of rain fell. Normal rainfall for the August through March period is 26.06 inches. The College Station area did not fare much better. Rainfall for the August through March period totaled 11.67 inches. This was the third driest period in that areas recorded weather history. The driest period occurred in 1924-25 when a paltry 8.66 inches of rain fell. In 1916-17, rainfall totaled 11.27 inches. Normal rainfall for this time period is 24.93 inches. The Galveston area fared much better than most locations in Southeast Texas. The August through March rainfall was 19.89 inches. Normal rainfall for this time period is 27.86 inches. Other sites across Southeast Texas suffered a similar fate. Inland areas remained parched while coastal areas received somewhat adequate rainfall. Temperatures have been well above normal so far in 2000. Locations across Southeast Texas have averaged between 4 and 5 degrees above normal for the period defined as January through June. The average monthly temperature for February for the Houston area was the 7th warmest in recorded history. Galveston is off to it's warmest start in the last 50 years with an average temperature of 70.5 degrees. The previous warmest start to the year for Galveston occurred just last year when the average temperature was 70.2 degrees. The following chart will list average temperatures and rainfall for Houston, Galveston and College Station for the first six months of the year.
The May rainfall total of 12.35 inches at Houston makes May 2000 the 7th wettest in recorded history. Liberty reported a 24 hour rainfall record on May 19-20 when a nearly stationary thunderstorm dropped an incredible 19.1 inches of rain. This 24 hour total contributed to a new May monthly record rainfall of 25.26 inches. The previous May record rainfall was 18.10 inches and occurred in 1907. Although May was rather wet, June finished dry and July started out dry and very warm. If conditions don't change, most of Southeast Texas will suffer from extreme drought conditions by early August. Looking ahead, temperatures in July, August and September look to be near or just slightly above normal. Rainfall in those months will be near to a little below normal. There was a change in the climate message beginning July 1, 2000. There will not be any changes to the issuance time or site locations. The change in the format of the climate message is an effort to standardize the message nationally. All weather service offices will now issue the same climate product. Additional information which will be added to the message include quarterly heating and cooling degree day data, quarterly rainfall and snowfall data and relative humidity data. There will not be any changes to the issuance time or site locations.
Hurricane Season 2000
By Josh Lichter The 2000 Atlantic Hurricane Season began on June 1st. Based on records that date back to 1886, a tropical storm or hurricane forms in June in the Atlantic basin (Atlantic Ocean, Carribean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) on an average of once every other year. During June 2000, two tropical depressions formed with neither reaching tropical storm strength. Tropical Depression #1 formed on June 7th in the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The system was unable to strengthen mainly due to strong upper level winds which sheared the system apart. The depression was declared dissipated on the 8th near the same location of its development. Tropical Depression #2 formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean on about the 23rd just west of the coast of Africa. It moved westward for a couple of days and dissipated on the 25th (most likely due to the cool sea temperatures) in the central tropical Atlantic. Through the start of August, we have yet to see the first named system of the year. The following list contains the Atlantic basin storms for the 2000 season:
Is Your Community or County Storm Ready? By Gene Hafele Many laws and regulations help local emergency managers deal with hazardous material spills, search and rescue operations, and medical crisis but there are few guidelines dealing with hazardous weather operations. Recognizing this need, the National Weather Service designed StormReady to help cities, counties, and towns implement procedures to reduce the potential for disastrous, weather-related consequences. Ninety percent of all presidentially declared disasters are weather related. Through the StormReady program, NOAA's National Weather Service gives communities the skills and education needed to survive severe weather - before and during the event. StormReady helps community leaders and emergency managers strengthen their local hazardous weather operations. StormReady Does Not Mean Storm Proof! StormReady communities are better prepared to save lives from the onslaught of severe weather through better planning, education and awareness. Communities have fewer fatalities and property damage if they plan before dangerous weather arrives. No community is storm proof, but StormReady can help communities save lives. How Can My Community Become StormReady? The entire community - from the mayor and the emergency managers, to business leaders and civic groups - can take the lead on becoming StormReady. The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service forecast office will work with communities to complete an application and review process. To be recognized as StormReady, a community must:
How Can I Learn More About StormReady? For more information about StormReady, visit the StormReady Web site at: or contact Gene Hafele, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office at 281-337-5074 x223 or email at gene.hafele@noaa.gov. 
The Severe Weather of 2000 by Matt Moreland With severe drought conditions from 1999 carrying over through early spring of 2000, the first half of the year has proven much less active than the first half of 1999. Still, bouts of severe weather became more common during the latter part of the spring this year with very active weather and above normal rainfall during April and May. Interestingly, both 1999 and 2000 reverted back to a typical pattern of active severe weather during the latter part of the spring, as compared to active winter and early spring severe weather months that were experienced during much of the 1990s.
Significant Severe Weather Events for Southeast Texas January through June 2000: January was an extremely benign weather month in southeast Texas. The only significant event of the month occurred on the 27th when a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for light freezing rain and sleet over Houston and Trinity counties, and strong thunderstorms affected the coastal waters. A downburst wind gust produced damage to roofs, cars, and windows at the courthouse in Angleton on February 7th. A severe storm hit Houston County on February 18th, causing large hail in Grapeland. Strong storms moved across southeast Texas during the early morning hours of February 23rd , producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. March 10th brought the first major severe weather event of the year to southeast Texas. A strong cold front moved across southeast Texas producing several large supercells in the northwest counties. A tornado tracked 21 miles from near Harmony to just north of Clay in Burleson County, with significant tree damage along the entire path of the tornado. As the storm struck the Pin Oak subdivision on FM 1361, several trailers, including a double-wide, were destroyed. Portion of the roof was torn off of a ranch house on the south side of the highway, with several outbuildings destroyed on the property. Damage reached F3 intensity in this area with the damage swath reaching to a half mile wide. A total of 7 homes were destroyed and another 10 severely damaged in the area near FM 1361. Burleson County was also hit by baseball sized hail earlier in the evening with significant crop damage. Around the same time, an F0 tornado hit Bedias in Grimes County with trees downed. Reports of baseball sized hail were noted in Montgomery, Harris, Waller, and Washington Counties. The storms eventually weakened as they approached the coast late in the evening. Other storms affected the northern counties of southeast Texas on March 16th and 18th producing large hail in Burleson and Houston Counties. A squall line roared through the eastern counties of southeast Texas on March 26th with trees and power lines downed in Madisonville, Crockett, Lovelady, Trinity, and across San Jacinto County. Golfball sized hail was observed in Riverside in Walker County with dime sized hail in Liberty County. The second major severe weather event of the year occurred during the predawn hours of April 2nd when a major complex of storms pushed across southeast Texas. A strong downburst wind gust hit the Province Square subdivision near Hockley, destroying 2 homes and damaging 20 others. A barn was also destroyed with livestock injured and trees uprooted. Hail up to 2 inches in diameter was observed. The storms produced hail from quarter size to golf ball size in several locations over the southern half of southeast Texas. Flash flooding occurred in Conroe and over northwest Houston. Additional thunderstorms developed on the afternoon of the 2nd with large hail reported near Clute, Winnie, and Galveston and wind damage in League City. A supercell developed over Chambers County early on the 3rd producing a tornado 12 miles southwest of Anahuac and downing power lines and dumping large hail across the county. On the evening of April 7th, a squall line moved across southeast Texas. A strong cell in the line produced hail from dime size to golfball size in Madison, Trinity, Polk, Montgomery, and San Jacinto counties, and in Tomball and Kingwood in Harris County. Another round of storms affected the southern half of southeast Texas early morning on April 12th with power poles and trees downed in Glen Flora in Wharton County, and in the Bay City and Rosenberg areas. Minor street flooding was reported in the Houston and Galveston areas. After the 12th, quiet weather dominated the rest of April. Typical for late spring in southeast Texas, May was a very active severe weather month. The first five days of the month were dominated by severe weather. On the evening of the May 1st and early morning of the 2nd, a large complex of severe storms swept across southeast Texas leading to the worst severe weather event of the year so far. Burleson County was battered again with strong winds downing numerous trees and power lines across the county and tearing portion of the roof off Caldwell Middle School, and hail destroying 12,000 acres of crops. Hail of golf ball to baseball size pummeled the Conroe area producing over $10 million worth of damage. Over 1000 cars were severely damaged with roof damage to a church, furniture store, and carports. Winds gusting between 70 and 80 mph downed numerous trees and power lines over northern Harris County leaving 300,000 residents without power. Hail and high winds destroyed 12,000 acres of crops from Wallis to Fairchilds in Fort Bend County. Numerous trees and signs were blown down in the Richmond/Rosenberg area, and a trailer was overturned and a carport destroyed in the El Lobo subdivision in Wharton County. Downburst winds struck Clover Field in Pearland destroying several trailers, airplane hangars, a helicopter, and many small airplanes. A large awning and billboard were damaged near Pearland with a barn damaged in Iowa Colony. Lightning ignited a fire at an oil tank in Manvel. In Galveston County, strong winds downed power lines and street signs in League City with an injury reported. Several small planes and the NOAA P-3 research aircraft were damaged at Scholes Field in Galveston. Late afternoon on May 3rd, a severe storm developed over the west side of Houston producing hail of dime to quarter size in the Galleria area, downing a tree on a house on Danbury Street, and damaging a billboard at I-10 and Silber. On May 4th, a squall line swept across southeast Texas. Golfball sized hail occurred across much of southern and eastern Washington County, in the Spring and Cy-Fair areas in Harris County, near Hempstead in Waller County, near Frelsburg in Colorado County, and near Crabbs Prairie in Walker County. Dime to quarter sized hail was reported in Liberty, Montgomery, Burleson, Grimes, Austin, and Harris Counties. Trees were downed on cars in Houston, Caldwell and the New Caney area. Flash flooding occurred on US 59 in Shepherd, with extensive flooding in Magnolia in Montgomery County, in southern Grimes County, and in Washington County. Another round of severe storms hit the northern counties of southeast Texas on May 5th. Large hail and wind damage occurred in North Zulch and Madisonville while golfball sized hail fell north of Crabbs Prairie. A line of strong storms moved across the central part of southeast Texas on May 12th with trees downed in Bryan and between Navasota and Anderson, and dime sized hail north of Conroe. On the evening of May 19th, a stalled front combined with abundant tropical moisture to produce major flash flooding in northern Waller, northern Harris, Liberty, and Chambers counties. Liberty County was by far the hardest hit by a nearly stationary severe thunderstorm. A co-op observer in Liberty reported 19.1 inches of rain, with an amazing 18.3 inches falling in only 5 hours. Over half the streets in Liberty and Dayton were covered with 1 to 2 feet of water. Water reached 18 feet high on the SH 321 underpass in Dayton. Emergency crews rescued 60 to 80 people stranded in the flood waters. At least 262 homes and 42 businesses were damaged by flood waters countywide. An F0 tornado occurred 6 miles south of Dayton with trees damaged. Strong winds downed trees and power lines several times during the evening in the Liberty and Dayton areas.
Billion Dollar U.S. Weather Disasters
1. Hurricane Floyd September 1999. Large category 2 hurricane makes landfall in eastern NC, causing 10-20 inch rains in 2 days, with severe flooding in NC and some flooding in SC, VA, MD, PA,NY, NJ, DE, RI, CT, MA, NH, and VT; preliminary estimates of at least $6.0 billion damage/costs; 77 deaths. 2. Eastern Drought/Heat Wave Summer 1999. Very dry summer and high temperatures, mainly in eastern U.S., with extensive agricultural losses; over $1.0 billion damage/costs; estimated 256 deaths. 3. Oklahoma-Kansas Tornadoes May 1999. Outbreak of F4-F5 tornadoes hit the states of Oklahoma and Kansas, along with Texas and Tennessee, Oklahoma City area hardest hit; at least $1.0 billion damage/costs; 55 deaths. 4. Arkansas-Tennessee Tornadoes January 1999. Two outbreaks of tornadoes in 6-day period strike Arkansas and Tennessee; approximately $1.3 billion damage/costs; 17 deaths. 5. Texas Flooding October-November 1998. Severe flooding in southeast Texas from 2 heavy rain events, with 10-20 inch rainfall totals; approximately $1.0 billion damage/costs; 31 deaths. 6. Hurricane Georges September 1998. Category 2 hurricane strikes Puerto Rico, Florida Keys, and Gulf coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida panhandle, 15-30 inch 2-day rain totals in parts of AL/FL; estimated $5.9 billion damage/costs; 16 deaths. 7. Hurricane Bonnie August 1998. Category 3 hurricane strikes eastern North Carolina and Virginia, extensive agricultural damage due to winds and flooding, with 10-inch rains in 2 days in some locations; approximately $1.0 billion damage/costs; 3 deaths. 8. Southern Drought/Heat Wave Summer 1998. Severe drought and heat wave from Texas/Oklahoma eastward to the Carolinas; $6.0-$9.0 billion damage/costs to agriculture and ranching; at least 200 deaths. 9. Minnesota Severe Storms/Hail May 1998. Very damaging severe thunderstorms with large hail over wide areas of Minnesota; over $1.5 billion damage/costs; 1 death. 10. Southeast Severe Weather Winter-Spring 1998. Tornadoes and flooding related to El Nino in southeastern states; over $1.0 billion damage/costs; at least 132 deaths. 
Heat Safety Rules About 175 people die in this country every year due to excessive heat. When the Heat Index gets above 90 then it is time to take some precautions:>
Know These Heat Disorder Symptoms
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