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National Weather Service Forecast OfficeHouston/Galveston, Texas | |||||
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Weather Forecast for
By Lance Wood Considering southeast Texas is currently experiencing a moderate to severe drought, many are interested in the region's weather for the upcoming year. Long range forecasting (beyond one month) centers on the state of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation cycle and its known link to weather patterns affecting southeast Texas. El Nino is named after the Christ child (in Spanish) because of its December occurrence off the coast of Peru, where abnormally warm sea surface temperatures signal the beginnings of warm anomalies over a much larger area (the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific). La Nina is the opposite phenomenon, referring to cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific. The Southern Oscillation, consists of an east-west atmospheric pressure see-saw that directly affects tropical weather around the globe. Both El Nino/La Nina and swings of the Southern Oscillation typically occur in conjunction. The current state of the cycle is one of cold episode conditions, or La Nina. Cold sea surface temperatures have persisted since August 1998 making this La Nina the longest period of cold episode conditions since the mid 1980s. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting La Nina conditions to continue through the spring and into the summer. Near neutral conditions are expected during the second half of the year as La Nina diminishes. The result of this forecast for southeast Texas is near normal temperatures this spring followed by above normal temperatures during the summer and early fall. During the remainder of the year, temperatures are expected to be near normal. Unfortunately, rainfall amounts are expected to be below normal through the spring, with drought conditions continuing. Near normal rainfall is predicted this summer, when we normally receive less rainfall, and for the remainder of the year. The La Nina/El Nino condition also affects hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. The Colorado State hurricane forecast team, headed by Dr. William Gray, issued their first forecast for the 2000 season last December. They are expecting slightly above average hurricane activity, but less active than the recent years of 1995, 1996, 1998 and 1999. The forecast is for 11 named storms (avg. = 9), 7 hurricanes (avg. = 6), and 3 intense hurricanes (avg. = 2). As a reference, last year there were 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 of which were intense (category 3,4,5). Their forecast will be updated on April 7. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center will issue a hurricane activity forecast in May. 
2000 Houston Boat Show By Brian Kyle The 2000 Houston International Boat Show was held at the Astrohall and Astroarena from January 7th through January 16th. Over 170,000 people attended the 10 day event, and similar to previous years, this was a great opportunity for the Houston staff to meet with the marine community as they passed by the NWS booth. Positive comments regarding the NWS marine forecasts were received from most of those that stopped by to chat. One gentleman even stopped by to thank the staff because of a special "marine warning that saved not only my life, but my family's as well." Numerous people also commented how much they liked the digital NOAA Weather Radio voice. It is always good for our forecasters to hear your feedback - it shows that the products we issue are used and are an important tool for local mariners. A variety of handouts were available to the public. The most popular brochures included those about hurricanes, severe weather, safe boating, and tide tables for January and February. Those not able to attend this years show are also encouraged to provide feedback regarding our local marine program by e-mailing brian.kyle@noaa.gov 
Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop May 10, 2000 Work is already underway planning this year's annual Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop. The theme of this year's workshop will be "1900 STORM: CAN IT HAPPEN AGAIN?"The workshop will take place on May 10th at the Pasadena Convention Center beginning at 8:00 AM. This year's workshop is again being sponsored by the East Harris County Manufacturers Association (EHCMA). We will be looking at what would realistically happen in 2000 if a storm similar to the 1900 Storm would make landfall along the upper Texas coast. We will look at how the changes in the landscape will affect the impact of the storm and of course the enormous growth in the population. In addition, we will discuss the continuing improvement in forecasting these storms but emphasize, the major difficulties in forecasting the impact a particular storm will have. This year we are also planning on having two breakout sessions to educate people on what they can do to protect the physical structures along the coast whether it be a home...small business or a large Petro-Chemical Plant along the ship channel. Please mark your calenders so you can attend this important workshop. It is open to everyone and there is no charge due to the great sponsorship we continue to have. 
2000 Gulf Coast Hurricane Awareness Tourand the NOAA P-3 Aircraft May 2, 2000 On May 2nd the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) 2000 Gulf Coast Hurricane Awareness Tour will be in Galveston Texas. NOAA's P-3 research aircraft will be at Galveston Scholes Field for tours by the public along with school children from around the area. Hurricane experts from the National Hurricane Center will be available during the day to brief Emergency Management Officials on Hurricane Forecasting. These same experts will also be available during the day for media interviews. On the evening of May 2nd the annual Galveston Town Meeting will be held at the Moody Gardens Convention Center. This meeting will focus on the 1900 Storm and how Galveston will cope with a similar storm in 2000. Additional information about the Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop, the 2000 Gulf Coast Hurricane Awareness Tour and the Galveston Town Meeting will be sent in a special Storm Signals in mid April. You may also call the Houston/Galveston NWS Office at 281-337-5074 for further details. 
SKYWARN 2000 It is not too late to schedule your Skywarn Meeting to prepare for the severe weather season this Spring. Just pick up the phone and contact Gene Hafele at 281-337-5074 x223 to schedule your class today. Programs can be scheduled during the evening or during the day to maximize your attendance. What is Skywarn? Skywarn is a program sponsored by your National Weather Service Office in conjunction with your local Emergency Management Organization. It is a group of trained volunteers that watch the skies during severe weather and relay reports back to the local Emergency Management Official, the local law enforcement agency, and /or the National Weather Service. These volunteers provide valuable information to their local community and to the National Weather Service which helps improve the warning program, thus possibly saving lives and reducing property damage in the community. This year's Skywarn program will emphasize the dangers of heavy rain and the eventual floods and flash floods produced by these rains. Floods and flash floods continue to be the number one producer of weather related deaths. With your help we will try to identify flash flood prone areas and also develop a better rainfall reporting network. 
Southeast Texas Severe Weather Awareness Week March 5 - 11, 2000 Governor George Bush has proclaimed the week of March 5-11 as Severe Weather Awareness Week for the state of Texas. In an official memorandum, he reminded Texans of the devastation and loss of life in the May 1999 tornado outbreak in Oklahoma, and the fact that no part of Texas is immune to severe weather. During Severe Weather Awareness Week, the National Weather Service in coordination with the Texas Division of Emergency Management and the Insurance Information Institute will highlight various aspects of severe weather through press releases and Public Information Statements. Newspapers, broadcast media, safety organizations and other local government officials are encouraged to work with their communities to disseminate severe weather awareness information to prepare them for the upcoming severe weather season. During each day of Severe Weather Awareness Week, special releases will be made by the National Weather Service to further emphasize important information about severe weather and the National Weather Service's job in warning the public.
The Spring Storm Season Often in Southeast Texas, the most active season for severe weather is the collection of spring months of March, April, and May. With warm, moist air returning from the Gulf of Mexico and active frontal systems from the north and west, the Upper Texas Coast and Southeast Texas often experience numerous showers and thunderstorms. There are mainly two big weather phenomena during the spring-thunderstorms and tornadoes. Tornadoes are associated with thunderstorms, but not every thunderstorm is capable of producing a tornado. However thunderstorms can still produce significant damage without the presence of tornadoes. By definition, a thunderstorm produces lightning which is the number two weather related killer in the United States. The number one killer is flash floods which are also associated with thunderstorms. Despite the popularity, or notoriety, of hurricane and tornadoes, the two main weather related killers can occur on a frequent basis. There are ways to help reduce the chances of suffering injury or damage during thunderstorms. The best defense for spring thunderstorms is preparation. Try to keep updated to forecasts that might suggest severe weather. There are several signs that suggest a thunderstorm approaching. Thunder is often the best warning signal. Temperature changes and breezy winds also offer a clue to approaching weather. If you can hear thunder or feel cool breezes, you are close enough to the thunderstorm to be affected. If at all possible, take shelter in a sturdy building away from windows. Use phones only in case of an emergency. If a shelter is not available, find a hard top automobile and keep the windows up. A common myth about automobiles is that the rubber tires insulate the car. This is false as lightning can still strike the vehicle. But the vehicle will provide significantly more protection than the open ground. Stay away from towers, hills, and tall trees as objects protruding into the air are the ones most likely to be struck. The only time to move to higher ground is if flood waters have been seen or reported in your area. If at the lake or on the coast, get off and away from water. If caught in the open ground, find a low spot in the terrain away from trees and fences. Squat low to the ground and lean on the balls of your feet. As lightning strikes the ground, it often spreads in several directions and can strike any object in the vicinity. By eliminating the area of ground that your are in contact with, you minimize your chance of being struck. If at all possible, stay informed by listening to advisories from commercial radio and television or to the National Weather Service weather radio. With proper information and preparation, you can reduce the damage of severe thunderstorms to you, your family, and your property. Tornadoes offer different problems, but many safety rules from thunderstorms apply. The best defense is again preparation. Practice tornado drills so that all members of the family or employees of business know the appropriate locations of tornado shelters. Don't panic. Move to an interior room away from windows. If at all possible cover yourself with blankets, pillows, or other soft objects. If driving, find a suitable low spot on the ground as quick as possible and abandon your vehicle. Do not try to outrun a tornado. If you reside in a mobile home, leave and find appropriate shelter as mobile homes offer little, if any, protection from tornadoes. Stay informed with the changing weather conditions. By following these basic rules one can minimize the risk, and thus the damage, posed by the variety of spring severe weather over Southeast Texas. DEFINITIONS: Tornado Watch - Conditions are favorable for the development of tornadoes (tornadoes are possible in the area). Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms (severe thunderstorms are possible in the area). Tornado Warning - Tornadoes are imminent or are occurring in the area. Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Severe thunderstorms are imminent or are occurring in the area.
Coop Corner
By Don Oettinger As of this writing, the January forms have been received from ALL 50 of our Coop sites! Congratulations and thanks for your cooperation! It has been a long time since we have received 100% of our data. Timely receipt of weather data is very helpful for the folks at the National Climatic Data Center who publish, and make available to the public, data from over 3,000 Cooperative Observer sites nationwide. There is a fairly large supply of WS Form B-91 booklets in the Weather Service supply system. All of these booklets have "19__" printed in the upper left hand corner of the station information block. The next printing will be "Y2K compliant" but, in the meantime, we will have to use our supply of the older booklets. Either write over the 19 or cross it out and put "2000" in its place. Your data will not be mistaken as having been recorded in the year 1900! Congratulations to Mr. Melton West of Dacus and T.C. Koester of Houston Heights. They recently received ten and fifteen year awards respectively. They've done a great job for the Coop program. Ms. Lillie Fry, of the Houston Barker station, has received the Benjamin Franklin Award. This award was created to recognize observers who have 55 years of service as Cooperative Observers. The Benjamin Franklin award is brand new, its creation was authorized in late 1999. Ms. Fry's is the first or second to be awarded in the entire nation. Congratulations! I would like to remind sites that have a Fischer-Porter recording raingage to please try to change the tape monthly, on or about the first of the month. Also, it is very important to put your station name, number, and the data and time on the tape at the beginning and end, whenever you remove it. Without a reference for the beginning and ending times, the data is useless. Rainfall data is published in 15 minute increments from these tapes and it is important that the National Climatic Data Center knows when the rain occurred. Thanks for your timely and accurate data. Remember, if you have a question or a problem, please call us. Either Tom, Bill, or Don will be able to help.
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