FXUS64 KHGX 110734 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 235 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2001 INTERESTING FCST NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STG UPR LVL TROF WILL SWING THROUGH THE ERN PART OF TX LATE TDA AND THIS EVENING. AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED THE THE ENVIRONMENT IT HAS TO WORK WITH...IF THE ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT. HELICITIES HOLD BLO 100...AND CAPES MAX OUT THIS MORNING AROUND 1500. JET PSN HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN A RR QUAD REGION THIS MORNING...THEN POSITIONS ITSELF OVERHEAD DRG THE AFTN...LEAVING ONLY THE SWRN ZONES IN THE FAVORED AREA. GIVEN DAY ONE OTLK AND THE FACT THAT SVR IS ALREADY MENTIONED IN ZFP...WILL LEAVE IT IN. THINK THE EVENT UPCOMING ON FRI NGT WILL BE MORE IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER. CAPES ARE HIGHER...WET BULB ZEROES ARE LOWER...AND THE UPR LVL DYNAMICS ARE STRONGER. LATEST SPC DAY TWO OTLK AGREES...AND HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A MDT RISK. AT THE SFC...LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER NRN AND CTRL ZONES TDA THEN WASH OUT. MOISTURE LVLS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH FCST PW VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN SPOTS TDA. MOS AND FAN SPLASHING 80+ POPS OVER A LARGE PTN OF THE REGION. WILL GO CAT POPS ALL BUT SW. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TAPER OFF TNGT INTO FRI...THEN SECOND ROUND WILL AFFECT AREA FRI NGT. MOS POPS 4TH PERIOD DON'T PICK UP ON THIS. WILL GO LKLY NUMBERS 4TH PERIOD...EXCEPT 50 SW. DRYING BEHIND SECOND FNT MOVES IN QUICKLY BY SAT. MIGHT GO AHD AND YANK POPS FOR SAT N PTNS. AVN HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING NRN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY BY 12Z SAT...AND NEW 60 HR ETA AGREES. FCST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH MIDWEEK LOOKS QUITE NICE AFT FROPA. BOTH CLL AND IAH GOT TO 88 DEGS YESTERDAY. THINK ENOUGH SUN MIGHT PEEK THROUGH NW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO EXCEED MOS FCST TDA. OTRW NUMBERS LOOK OK. MARINE SIDE RELATIVELY BENIGN UNTIL 2ND FROPA. NO FLAGS. .HGX...NONE. 46/41/48 PRELIMS... CLL TE 083/066 088/060 078 833 IAH TE 084/068 087/065 080 833 GLS TE 083/075 083/072 081 843 (SW POPS 533) ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHGX 111405 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 905 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2001 MINI-SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS SERN TX. TV COVERAGE EARLIER CLEARLY SHOWED A ROTATING WALL CLOUD AND FUNNEL WITH ONE STORM. RADAR SIGNATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE INCONCLUSIVE. HOWEVER...STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE NNE (010-030 DEGREES) AND TWO-GATE VELOCITY COUPLETS SEEM TO BE THE BEST PREDICTORS. UPDATED THE ZONES FORECASTS TO ADD THE TORNADO WATCH. .HGX...NONE. 31/47/38/42/WT PRELIMS... CLL TE 083/066 088/060 078 833 IAH TE 084/068 087/065 080 833 GLS TE 083/075 083/072 081 843 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHGX 111711 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1210 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2001 THE MCS IS THROUGH MOST OF SERN TX...THUS ENDING THE TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA AND THE SWRN ZONES ARE STILL UNDER THE FAVORABLE RRQ OF THE JET STREAK AND THAT AREA HAS NOT HAD CONVECTION YET TODAY. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE TORNADO WATCH...LOWER POPS AND REMOVE SEVERE WORDING EXCEPT FOR THE SWRN ZONES...AND ADJUST TEMPS/WINDS PER DEPARTING MCS AND THE APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. .HGX...NONE. 31/47/38/42/WT UPDATE PRELIMS... CLL TE 078/066 088/060 078 333 LOWERED POPS/TEMPS TODAY IAH TE 080/068 087/065 080 433 DITTO GLS TE 080/075 083/072 081 443 DITTO SW 543 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHGX 111935 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 235 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2001 KHGX SHOWS NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA ACROSS SERN TX. THERE WERE TWO CONFIRMED TORNADO REPORTS EARLIER...ALONG WITH SOME WIND DAMAGE AND MINOR FLOODING...LSR OUT SHORTLY. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS A MAJOR SEVERE OUTBREAK FOR SERN TX FROM MIDDAY FRI THROUGH MIDDAY SAT. THE 12Z NCEP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION LIKELY DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES OR MODEL PARAMETERIZATIONS. BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. PREFER THE AVN OVERALL...MAV/FWC TEMPS BOTH HAVE PROBLEMS FOR CERTAIN PERIODS...WILL GO WITH TREND/PERSISTENCE AS NECESSARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS EVOLVE AS SUCH...WEAK TO MODERATE 0-6KM SHEAR...MODERATE CAPE...AND LOW 0-3KM SRH FRI MORNING TO MIDDAY. MODERATE SHEAR...HIGH CAPE...MODERATE SRH FRI AFT/EVE. HIGH LINEAR SHEAR...MODERATE CAPE...MODERATE SRH FRI NIGHT/SAT AM. AGREE WHOLEHEARTEDLY WITH SPC DAY 2 MODERATE RISK. OVERALL EXPECT MAIN MODES OF ISOLD SUPERCELLS LATE FRI AM/AFT AS WARM BOUNDARY PUSHES NORTH AND SEA BREEZE PROVIDE FORCING GENERALLY EAST OF US 59. MAIN SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE FROM WNW TO ESE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LESSER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL PULSE-TYPE SEVERE HAIL ON SAT AS MOIST AIR IS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UNDER COLD CORE UPPER LOW. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT. DRY FORECAST FROM SAT PM THROUGH NEXT THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE CNTRL STATES. SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY SWELL AND EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE COULD PUSH ACTUAL WATER LEVELS TO NEAR 4 FEET OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING FOR EXTREMELY LOW LYING ROADS AND OTHER SPOTS. NO OTHER MARINE FLAGS TONIGHT...BUT SCA FRI NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. .HGX...NONE. 31/47 PRELIMS... CLL TW 066/084 060/074 050 34+ IAH TW 068/085 065/075 054 34+ GLS TW 071/082 068/073 062 44+ ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHGX 120157 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 854 PM CDT THU OCT 11 2001 DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE FROM NEAR CRP TO 40 NM SOUTH OF HIGH ISLAND. VWP INDICATES VERY SHALLOW COOL AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. SURFACE WINDS INLAND WERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WITH MID 60 TO AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS. EXPECT THE COASTAL AIRMASS TO ERODE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE NEXT VERY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE PIKE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD START TO CRANK UP TOWARD MORNING AND SHOULD BE STIFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT SO WILL UPDATE ZONES TO CONTINUE MENTION OF POPS OVERNIGHT. FOG A DECENT BET AS WELL. THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. .HGX...NONE. 45/41/39 UPDATED PRELIMS... CLL TW 066/084 060/074 050 34+ IAH TW 068/085 065/075 054 34+ GLS TW 071/082 068/073 062 34+