ZCZC MKCSWOMCD ALL;334,0996 338,0968 318,0968 314,0996;
ACUS3 KMKC 231032
MKC MCD 231032

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR PTNS W-CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...

TSTM CMPLX CONTAINING A BOW ECHO HAS DVLPD JUST AHD OF LEADING EDGE
OF STGST LOW/MID LVL FORCING ASSOCD WITH EJECTING ERN NM TROF. 
CNVTN IS NOT SFC-BASED NOR ASSOCD WITH DISTINCT SFC FTR...BUT IS
BEING SUSTAINED BY MRGL INSTBY AND CNVGNC IN AN ELEVATED INFLOW
LYR.  BOW IS MOVG ENEWD 30 KT ACRS NOLAN CNTY AND WL CROSS PTNS
TAYLOR/JONES/ CALLAHAN/SHACKELFORD CNTYS IN NEXT 1-2 HRS.

MODIFIED FCST SNDGS AND VAD PROFILES SHOW STG VEERING AND SPD SHEAR
IN LOWEST 1-2 KM.  THESE SNDGS INDC STMS ARE ROOTED IN 800-850 MB
LYR...ABV STGST LOW LVL SHEAR.  THIS LEAVES THEM LARGELY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...AND AVBL LOW-MID
LVL SHEAR THAT IS ZERO OR EVEN SLGTLY NEG.  CONSIDERING LOW ESTD
CAPE -- AOB 500 J/KG -- AND DEPTH/STRENGTH OF RELATIVELY STBL BNDRY
LYR...PTNL FOR DMGG DOWNDRAFTS OF THE NATURE NORMALLY ASSOCD WITH
BOW ECHOES IS LOW.  STILL...A FEW GUSTS NR SVR LIMITS MAY OCCUR IN
AFOREMENTIONED CNTYS BEFORE BOW WKNS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/23/97