ZCZC MKCSWODY2 000
ACUS2 KMKC 230756
MKC AC 230755

2ND DAY SEVERE TSTM OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH98O.
GEN TSTMS NOT INCLUDED.

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S LCH 15 NE ESF 30 ESE ELD HOT FSM 25 S UMN 20 ENE CGI 20 S CKV
35 NE HSV 15 SE ANB 30 SSE CSG 25 NW SAV 35 NNW CHS FAY RWI
25 NE ECG ...CONT... 35 NNW DAB 25 W CTY.

UPR LOW...CURRENTLY OVR NM...WILL DEAMPLIFY TMW AS IT LIFTS NEWD FM
THE CNTRL GULF CST TO THE MID-ATLC REGION. MEANWHILE...A MUCH
STRONGER TROF WILL DEVELOP OVR THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES AS UPR SYS
NOW OVR THE PAC NW DIVES SEWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF
MDT-STG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT FM THE SRN PLAINS THRU THE TN VALLEY AND
GULF COAST REGION.

...SRN AL/NRN FL/SRN GA/COASTAL CAROLINAS...
STG/SVR TSTMS...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A SQLN OR CNVTV
CLUSTER...WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVR PTNS OF SRN AL AND THE WRN FL
PNHDL AT THE START OF THE FCST PD. ALTHOUGH THE UPR TROF WILL BE
WEAKENING DURG THE DAY...LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL RMN
FAVORABLE FOR THE CNVTV SYS TO REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES EWD
INVOF WRMFNT INTO SRN GA/N FL. GIVEN THE XPCD LINEAR NATURE OF THE
CNVTN...PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE FM DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER... 
FCST WIND PROFILES SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR...
CONTRIBUTING TO STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES AOA 400. THIS ALG WITH
FVRBL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW FIELDS SUGGEST THAT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND ISOLD TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCR. NWD EXTENT OF SVR THREAT IN GA
WILL BE LIMITED BY WEDGE OF COLD AIR ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS.

ETA MODEL SUGGESTS THAT A COASTAL FRONT MAY BACK ONSHR INTO THE ERN
CAROLINAS DURG THE AFTN ALLOWING FOR SOME AMS RECOVERY. ALTHOUGH IT
IS UNCERTAIN ATTM WHETHER THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCR...GIVEN THE WKNG
UPR SUPPORT AND THE ETA BIAS OF DESTABILIZING COASTAL AREAS TOO
MUCH IN THE COOL SEASON...FCST WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR SVR TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THUS HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE AREA
IN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK. 

...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST...
ALTHOUGH THE LEAD SHRTWV AND ASSOCD LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE
MOVING WELL E OF THE AREA TMW...A BROAD AREA OF STG WSW FLOW ALOFT
AND FAVORABLE DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF UPR TROF DEVELOPING OVR THE ROCKIES. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES ASSOCD WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVR THE
LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS ACRS THE LWR MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MDT-HIGH INSTBY DURG THE AFTN
WITH SFC-BASED CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG XPCD. SFC TROF EXTENDING 
ACRS AR/LA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CNVTV DVLPMT LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BNDRY ACRS MS/AL PROVIDING AN ADDNL
FOCUS. AREAL COVERAGE OF CNVTN MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPR
SUPPORT AND ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL CNVGNC. HOWEVER...POTENT AMS
STRUCTURE AND STG VERT SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. 

..VESCIO.. 10/23/97