ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 231425
MKC AC 231425

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 231500Z - 241200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0755...VALID TIL 2000Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACRS PARTS OF
SERN TX...CNTRL/SRN LA...AND EXTRM SWRN MS...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
FROM PSX AUS TPL GGG HEZ MCB BVE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 S VCT SAT BWD FTW PRX GWO TCL TOI PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CRP DRT MAF
LBB AMA HUT FNB SZL MKL HSV AUO AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PGA U24 OWY PDT EPH
3TH COD CPR CYS COS RTN ABQ GUP PGA.

...PTNL FOR SGFNT SVR WX EVENT IS DVLPG ACRS ERN TX AND LA TDA...

IMPRESSIVE MID LVL VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVR W TX IS FCST TO TRACK EWD
ACRS TX AND INTO AR/LA THIS PD...WITH VRY STG UPR WIND FIELDS DVLPG
THRUOUT THIS AREA.   LOW LVL WINDS HAVE ALSO INCRD DRAMATICALLY
OVNGT...WITH PROFILERS/VWPS INDCG SLY LOW LVL WINDS AOA 40 KT.
RESULTING SHEAR PROFILES APPR FAVORABLE FOR SGFNT SVR WX EVENT ACRS
SERN TX AND CNTRL/SRN LA THIS AFTN/TNGT.

LTST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED WRMFNT LIFTING NWD ALG THE TX
GULF COAST.  THIS FRONT SHUD XTND FROM CNTRL TX INTO SRN LA BY
EVE...AND MAY BE AS FAR N AS SRN AR BY FRI MORN.  AMS S OF FRONT IS
MOIST WITH DWPNTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S.  MORN SNDGS ALSO INDC STEEP
LAPSE RATES ACRS THIS AREA.  IF BREAKS IN CLDS ALLOW AFTN HTG...
CAPE VALUES COULD RANGE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG FROM THE HOU AREA INTO
CNTRL/SRN LA.

ISOLD SVR TSTMS NOW OCCURRING NR SAT WILL TRACK NEWD INTO NERN TX
THRU THE MORN/ERY AFTN.  OTR STORMS WILL LIKELY DVLP BY ERY AFTN
ACRS THE CNTRL/NRN TX GULF COAST AND TRACK NEWD INTO LA.  DEGREE OF
INSTBY AND VRY FAVORABLE SHEAR/STORM-RELATIVE PROFILES SUG PTNL FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...ESPCLY ALG AND S OF SFC WRMFNT DURG THE
AFTN/EVE.  BOW ECHOES/DMGG WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR THRUOUT RISK AREAS
THIS PD.

A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /AFOS MKCPWOMKC/ WILL BE ISSUED BFR
16Z.

..HART.. 10/23/97