ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 230546
MKC AC 230543

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR PTNS OF SE TX AND SRN LA. THE
MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PSX 35 N VCT 20
SSW TPL 40 E ACT 40 NW POE 20 SE HEZ 20 W GPT 20 ESE BVE.

SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S VCT SAT 50 E JCT 10 SSE BWD 20 NNE
MWL 30 WNW TXK 20 W GLH 25 W TCL 25 ENE CKL 15 N TOI 15 W AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRP DRT 50 E
FST 35 S LBB AMA 35 WNW END 20 SSE JLN 15 NE JBR 45 WNW CHA 25 E
RMG 35 SE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE FLG 45 NW GCN
30 W MLF 15 NE ENV 20 SW PIH 25 N JAC 20 SSE COD 40 N CPR 20 ENE
LAR 15 NNE COS 30 S RTN ABQ 50 SSW GUP 35 NE FLG.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
LATE EVE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE UPR LVL LOW CENTERED
OVR SERN NM...AND A SECOND STG SHRTWV TROF MOVG INLAND ALG WRN
OREGON. AT THE SFC...A CDFNT EXTDD FM CNTRL PARTS OF THE FL PEN WWD
ACRS THE CNTRL GULF...AND BCMS NEARLY STNRY AS IT TRAILS WWD TO NR
BRO. A COMPLEX OF TSTMS CONTS MOVG EWD ACRS WRN PTNS OF TX AHD OF
THE UPR LOW IN NM.

...GULF CST RGN...
PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX
EPISODE OVR PTNS OF THE NRN GULF CST RGN. NM LOW/TROF WL CONT TO
MOV EWD ACRS CNTRL TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY BY THE END OF THE FCST
PD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPCD TO DVLP ACRS PARTS OF NW TX
DURG THE FIRST HALF OF THE PD. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE WRM FNT OVR S
TX SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NWD ACRS SE TX/SWRN LA. THIS WOULD ALLOW
LOW LVL MSTR AND INSTBY TO RETURN INTO THE OTLK AREA. ETA FCST
SNDGS FOR THE AFTN AND ERY EVE HRS SUG A MDTLY TO VRY UNSTBL AMS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVR THE AREA WITH CAPE VALUES 1000 TO 3000 J/KG.

AS THE UPR SYS MOV ACRS TX...A MDTLY STG LLJ IS EXPCD TO DVLP AND
MOV INTO THE AREA. ETA FCST SNDGS SUG STGLY VEERING PROFILES WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 30 TO 50 KT RANGE IN THE SFC TO H7 LVL. ALTHOUGH H5
WNDS WL WEAKEN SLGTLY TMW AFTN...THE RESULTANT SFC TO H5 LYR WNDS
SHOULD STILL BE FVRBL FOR SUPERCELL/TORNADO DVLPMT WITH SOME OF
THESE STMS...ESP OVR SERN TX AND SRN LA. TSTM ACTVTY CURRENTLY IN
W TX WL CONT TO MOV INTO CNTRL TX THIS MRNG...PSBLY INTERSECTING
THE WRM FNT AS IT LIFTS NWD ACRS CNTRL AND ERN TX. OTR TSTM DVLPMT
IS LKLY ALG AND S OF THE FNT THRU THE CNTRL GULF CST RGN. SINCE THE
WRM SECTOR IS NOT EXPCD TO LIFT VRY FAR NWD...SVR CVNTN SHOULD RMN
CONFINED TO THE THE GULF CST RGN. 

A PUBLIC SVR WX OTLK /AFOS PRODUCT PWOMKC/ WIBIS BTWN 09Z AND 10Z.

...GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...GRT BASIN/CNTRL RCKYS...
NXT SHRTWV TROF...CURRENTLY MOVG INLAND ACRS WA/OREGON...WL CONT TO
MOV SEWD ACRS THE NW INTO THE GRT BASIN AREA BY THE END OF THE PD.
H5 PROGS SUG MID LVL TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE -25 TO -30 DEG C RANGE
WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME SFC HEATING...WL
PRODUCE VRY STEEP LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...SOME TSTMS WITH
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ARE PSBL...ESP OVR THE MOUNTAINS.
 
..REHBEIN.. 10/23/97