ZCZC MKCSWODY2 000
ACUS2 KMKC 221808
MKC AC 221805

2ND DAY CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH98O.

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE TX AND MUCH
OF SOUTHERN LA.  THE MDT RISK AREA IS LOCATED TO THE RIGHT OF A
LINE FROM GLS 25 S LFK 15 ENE POE 30 W MCB GPT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX
45 SE BWD 35 N ABI 25 SW CSM 30 NE ADM 15 SW ELD 35 N MCB
25 WSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CRP 35 W JCT
30 E AMA 30 SE DDC SLN 25 S TOP JLN 15 SSW FYV HOT 25 NE JAN
15 S CEW.

LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN MID/UPR LVL LOW OVER SRN AZ ATTM.  THIS
FEATURE IS PROGD TO MOVE INTO SRN NM/W TX BY 23/12Z.  THIS SHRTWV
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS VLY AND WEAKENS DURG THE DAY 2
PD.  SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER MID MS VLY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST CST
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CAN STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES SEWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY END OF PD.

SLY WINDS....WHICH SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACRS PTNS OF W TX INTO
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AT BEGINNING OF PD...WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO GULF
CST STATES AND OH VALLEY RGN.  E-W ORIENTED COLD FRONT OVER GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE ONTO THE TX/LA CST DURG WED AFTN AND THEN MOVE NWD
DURG REMAINDER OF PD.

ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACRS SERN TX/SRN LA
DURG DAY 2 PD.  AS A RESULT...AMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSTBL. 
MODELS INDICATE SLY LLJ TO 45 KT WILL BE IN PLACE ACRS E TX INTO
MID MS VLY WITH SWLY 500 MB WINDS TO 55 KT.  THIS WIND PROFILE
SHOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STG TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND STG WINDS ALOFT INDICATE WIND DAMAGE/ISOLD
TORNADOES ARE PSBL ACRS THE MDT RISK AREA.

BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS AS
MODELS AND CURRENT THINKING SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER SERN TX DURG THU AFTN AND THEN MOVE EWD INVOF WARM
FRONT.  IF THIS CONVECTION ACTUALLY DEVELOPS...THIS SHOULD LIMIT
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE MID-LVL THERMAL TROF WILL EXTEND FM
TX PANHANDLE INTO S TX BY THU EVENING.  AMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
UNSTBL WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.  UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPR LVL LOW SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS OVER W TX DURG THU MORNING WITH THE THREAT DEVELOPING EWD
DURG DAY.  PROGD SOUNDGS FM SLGT RISK AREA INDICATE WBZ HGTS WILL
BE QUITE LOW SUGGESTING LRG HAIL MAY BE PSBL FROM SOME OF THE
STRONGER STMS. 

..HOVIS.. 10/22/97