ZCZC MKCSWODY2 000 ACUS2 KMKC 220744 MKC AC 220744 2ND DAY SEVERE TSTM OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH98O. GEN TSTMS NOT INCLUDED. VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU AFTN AND THU NGT ACRS MUCH OF ERN TX AND WRN LA. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX VCT 20 SW CLL 50 WSW TYR 35 NW TYR 25 SSW TXK 45 ESE SHV 40 ESE POE 15 SW 7R4. SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CRP 25 ESE COT 20 NW SAT 20 S BWD 45 NNE ABI 30 W LTS 40 NW ADM 35 SE PGO 15 SW GLH MEI 15 SSE MOB. POTENT SVR WX EPISODE CUD BE SETTING UP ACRS PTNS OF ERN TX AND WRN LA THU AFTN AND THU NGT. LRG RDG SETS UP OVR THE PAC WHICH ENHNCS STG NNWLY JET ACRS THE NWRN U.S. AND MEAN TROFFING ACRS THE CNTRL STATES. SWRN U.S. TROF EXPCD TO MOV EWD INTO THE S CNTRL U.S. DURG THE PD PHASING WITH DVLPMT OF CNTRL U.S. TROF. THE INCRG AMPLITUDE OF THE WRN U.S. UPR PATTERN IS WHAT PLAYS A KEY ROLE IN INCRG LO LVL FLO ACRS THE WRN GLFMEX NWD ACRS ERN TX AFT 23/12Z. LO LVL JET OF 40-50 KT IS FCST ACRS CNTRL AND ERN TX TWD THE MID MS VLY RGN BY 24/00Z. MEANWHILE...EJECTING POSLY TILTED SWRN U.S. TROF WILL MOV INTO CNTRL TX ACCOMPANIED BY 60-70 KT MID LVL JET ACRS S CNTRL TX INTO NWRN LA. THIS CREATES STG VERT SHEAR PROFILE ACRS ERN TX INTO WRN LA BY THU AFTN/EVE. SFC DWPNTS ARE EXPCD TO BE IN THE UPR 60S TO ARND 70 ACRS SERN TX INTO WRN LA BY EVE WITH A SFC DRYLN FEATURE EXTDG FM NR CDS SWD NR MFE BY 00Z. THIS DRYLN FEATURE MAY BE STGR THAN INDCD ON THE MDLS BY USING SFC DWPNT ANALYSIS AS STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST BHND/ALG THE SFC TROF/DRYLN. STG MID LVL DRY AIR INTRUSION IS FCST TO ADVN ENEWD ACRS CNTRL INTO NERN TX WHICH WILL ENHNC UVVS IN THE MOIST SECTOR S OF A WRM FNTL BNDRY EXTDG FM NR THE RED RIVER VLY OF OK/TX SEWD TWDS SERN LA. AMS S OF THE BNDRY IS FCST TO BE MDTLY UNSTBL WITH LIFTED INDICES BTWN -4 AND -6. MAX CAPE VALUES BY AFTN ARE EXPCD TO BE BTWN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACRS PTNS OF SERN TX INTO SWRN LA. SVR TSTMS ARE EXPCD TO DVLP AHD OF THE SFC DRYLN AS FEATURE MOVS INTO MDTLY UNSTBL AMS WITH STG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND MID LVL DIFFLUENCE ENHNCG UVVS. EXPC AT THIS JUNCTURE THAT ACTVTY WILL BE ORIENTED IN A STG LINE ECHO PATTERN WITH EMBDD BOW ECHOES GIVEN STG WLY TYPE FLO OF THE SRN BRANCH. BUT...STG MID LVL DIFFLUENCE AND VERT SHEAR WUD ALSO LEND CREDENCE TO ISOLD TORNADOES OCRG ACRS PTNS OF ERN TX INTO WRN LA. SVR TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPCD ACRS AREAS OF THE RED RVR VLY OF TX/OK NR SFC LO ESEWD ALG THE WRM FNTL BNDRY WHERE WRM AIR ADVCTN WILL ENHNC UVVS FOR DMGG WNDS AND LRG HAIL. ..MCCARTHY.. 10/22/97