ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 221435
MKC AC 221435

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 221500Z - 231200Z

NO SVR TSTMS FCST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW GBN 50 NW GBN
25 NW PRC 45 E GCN 35 SW FMN 30 N LVS DHT 30 NW CSM 25 WSW OKC
25 SSW ADM CLL 30 ENE CRP 25 ENE BRO.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...SRN ROCKIES...
CLOSED UPR LOW...WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACRS SRN AZ THRU EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE PHASING WITH NRN
STREAM AND MOVING INTO NM AFTER 00Z. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES
NEAR 1000 J/KG ACRS SRN AZ AND EXPECT INCREASING INSTBY TO SPREAD
OVR NM AS UPWARD MOTION IN ADVANCE OF LOW STEEPENS LAPSE RATES.
WITH UPWARD MOTION VIA TROF DYNAMICS AND HIGH TERRAIN...EXPECT A
FEW TSTMS ACRS AZ/NM THRU THE PD.

...WRN/CNTRL TX...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE THIS MORN OVR SRN TX WITH
MORNING CAPES ALREADY NEAR 1200 J/KG. WEAK UPR VORT MAX FCST TO
MOVE ACRS NERN MEX INTO SRN TX THIS AFTN ACTING TO SUPPORT A FEW
TSTMS NEAR COASTAL AREAS.

TONIGHT...MAIN UPR TROF FCST TO MOVE ACRS SRN ROCKIES WITH 110 KT
UPR STREAK IN SRN STREAM ADVANCING INTO N CNTRL MEX. FALLING
PRESSURE IN LOW LVLS WILL INDUCE 35 TO 45 KT LOW LVL JET THRU
WRN/CNTRL TX AFTER 00Z WITH STRONG THETA E ADVECTION. DEEP FORCING
EXPECTED AS DYNAMICS OF UPR TROF/JET STREAK COINCIDE WITH LOW LVL
WARM ADVECTION. DESPITE WEAK INSTBY...STRONG FORCING AND MARKED
WIND SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG MAINLY ELEVATED
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG LOW LVL JET AXIS.

..ROGASH.. 10/22/97