SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
215 AM CDT THU OCT 23 1997

AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W...SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS
BETWEEN MDLS.  NGM SHUNTS MSTR EAST OF AREA AND BEST DYNAMICS
NORTH.  ETA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AVN KEEP MSTR ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND PLACE MOST IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS OVER SE TX-W LA AREA. 
HAVE LEANED TOWARD ETA SOLN TODAY.  PW'S FCST TO APPROACH 1.8
INCHES...TREMENDOUS OMEGA VALUES...AND APPROACHING SPEED MAX AT 20H
ALL POINT TO A SVR WX EVENT ACROSS SE TX (SEE SPC OUTLOOK AREA
SWODY1 FOR DETAILS).  TIMING OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT STILL LOOKS LIKE AS
EARLY AS LATE MORNING AND EXITING EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING
HOURS.  AS ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A SQUALL LINE WL
DEVELOP AND RACE EAST...PRIMARY THREAT WL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND
TORNADOES AS IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 300 AND
400 ARE FCST.  HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS WET BULB ZERO IS UNDER 9K AT LCH
AND FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 11K. TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS DEPENDENT ON
WHERE WARM FRONT LIES THIS AFTERNOON.  AT 06Z...WARM FRONT IS ON ITS
WAY NORTH...CRP T IS 72FAND TD IS 70 AND EXPECT TROPICAL AIR TO BE IN
PLACE BY 18Z (UNABLE TO OBTAIN MARINE DATA).  WILL UPDATE SPSHOU
AFTER ZONES ARE ISSUED (ALSO SEE PWOMKC BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z)

EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK TONIGHT AS WINDS AT ALL LEVELS BECOME WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL DRY SE TX OUT.  MDLS FCST 30 TO 40 POPS FOR FRI
BUT JUST DON'T SEE IT.  SW WINDS WL KEEP MSTR LEVELS LOW AND SKY COND
MO SUNNY.  HAVE LEANED TOWARD HIGH MOS TEMPS FOR FRI DUE TO
EXPECTED SUNSHINE.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON SAT...AVN KEEPS WINDS SOUTHWEST SO ATTM THINK MSTR WILL BE
LIMITED AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LOW.  DECREASING THICKNESS
VALUES WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE THAT TEMPS WL COOL OFF SAT/SUN.

PRELIMS...
CLL E/B U/B 073/060 085/061 7-00 - 2ND PD DECREASING CLOUDS
NE  E/B U/B 072/059 083/059 9400
IAH E/B U/B 075/060 085/060 8300
GLS E/B U/B 075/065 082/065 6200

FOR NE-IAH-GLS...2ND PD EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA
                 DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT

ALL ZONES 3RD PD...MOSTLY SUNNY

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