FXUS64 KHGX 100803 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 255 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2001 SURFACE LOW (REMNANTS OF ALLISON) JUST N OF BUOY 019. BUOY 019 INDICATED ONE MB RISE LAST SEVEN HOURS. MSAS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM BUOY 19 TO HIGH ISLAND. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING OVER SE BRAZORIA AND GALVESTON ISLAND WHILE INCREASING NEAR HIGH ISLAND SE TO OFFSHORE. QUIET CONVECTION-WISE INLAND ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. KHGX VWP STILL INDICATE DEEP EASTERLY FETCH. EXPECT GRADUAL DRYING TREND W/PW VALUES DECREASING TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT MOVING REMNANTS OF ALLISON TOWARDS S. LOUISIANA W/IN NEXT 24 HRS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELD FOLLOWS THIS TREND MOVING EASTWARD FROM OUR REGION. WILL CONTINUE FFA FOR SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF CWFA TODAY WITH EMPHASIS ON COASTAL ZONES MAINLY GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THIS MAY BE DROPPED IF DRYING TREND ACCCELERATES (W/NE FLOW BECOMING MORE DOMINANT W/IN 1OKFT OF SFC). COASTAL FLOOD STILL A THREAT FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF GLS BAY HENCE WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY. BAY AND COASTAL SENSORS STILL INDICATE SCA CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMING WEEK WILL SEE A TYPICAL SUMMER SITUATION W/PW VALUES NEAR NORMAL AND LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILING. SEA BREEZE WILL BE HERE AGAIN PROBABLY INITIATING SOME CONVECTION. .HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SE 2/3 OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GALVESTON BAY. SCA GALVESTON BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH ISLAND. 37/45/BT PRELIMS... CLL EB 088/072 090/072 092 312 IAH TB 086/072 088/072 091 522 GLS TB 084/076 085/076 086 732 ====================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 101527 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1025 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2001 BROAD CIRCULATION THROUGH MID LEVELS ELONGATED A BIT FROM MATAGORDA EASTNORTHEAST JUST OFF THE COAST. SURFACE CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF BOY035. EVIDENCE OF MCV ON BACK SIDE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OFF TO EAST. STILL HIGH PWS OVER MOST OF CWA (1.75 TO 2.0) WHICH SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES IF DEEPER CONVECTION GETS GOING. MINIMAL FOCUS AND TREND TOWARD UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE INHIBITING FACTORS. ALTHOUGH LOW PROBABILITY... STILL FEEL SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND NORTH SIDE OF CIRCULATION. GIVEN HIGH STREAM FLOWS AND OVERSATURATED SOILS EVEN RELATIVELY SMALL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE RENEWED FLASH FLOODING. WILL LEAVE FFA UP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN CFW AS TIDE LEVELS IN GALVESTON BAY WILL RUN HIGH DUE TO FRESH WATER RUNOFF AND REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING OF SFC LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH. RIVER FLOODING PROGRESSING AS FORECAST. .HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SE 2/3 OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GALVESTON BAY. SCA COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH ISLAND. 30/47/48 ====================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 102025 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 300 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2001 MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING CARRIED TO EAST IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WHILE LOW LEVEL CENTER NOT MOVING MUCH OFFSHORE SOUTH OF GALVESTON. POPCORN LOOKING SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE COAST TO INLAND AS FAR AS CONROE. SO FAR ONLY SHALLOW DEVELOPMENT TO THE CONVECTION AND LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. VWPS AND SFC OBS SHOW ALL MOISTURE SOURCE FROM OVERLAND AND THAT DEEP GULF INFLOW STAYING WELL EAST INTO LA. BELIEVE WE CAN END THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE. TIDES ARE HOLDING AROUND 1/2 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND WITH NORTH WIND AND NO INDICATIONS OF LOW STRENGTHENING WILL DROP THE CWF. ALTHOUGH SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WILL STILL HAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MONDAY. EVEN IF SFC LOW MOVES AWAY...SHOULD SEE DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED SHOWERS PLUS AN ACTIVE SEABREEZE. BY THEN HOWEVER...PWS SHOULD HAVE DROPPED SOME MORE AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL MINIMAL. SOUTH WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER TOMORROW AS WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS LOW IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS MAINTAIN WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH THE WEEK. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACCORDINGLY. .HGX...SCEC COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO HIGH ISLAND. 30/47/48 PRELIMS... CLL BB 073/091 073/092 075 121 IAH BB 073/089 073/090 074 232 GLS BB 078/086 078/087 078 232 ====================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 110140 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 840 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2001 ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION LEFT AT THIS HOUR. WONDERING IF OUR RADAR MIGHT BE ABLE TO GO INTO CLR AIR MODE LATER TNGT. ITD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE 5/30. CHECK OUT OUR STORM TOTAL PRECIP BEFORE IT GETS CLRD OUT. MAX VALUE...41.1". MOP UP OPERATIONS CONT LOCALLY. RIVER/FLOOD STATEMENTS BEING TYPED NOW AND WILL BE OUT THIS EVENING. BAYOUS RECEDING...WHILE LARGER RIVER SYSTEMS ARE RISING. REMNANTS OF ALLISON AFFECTING LA NOW AND MOVG E. WILL REMOVE FIRST PERIOD POPS WHERE CONVECTION IS NO LONGER A THREAT. WILL ALSO STICK IN SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN LGT WINDS..CLRG SKIES AND A MOIST GRND. .HGX...NONE. 46/41/48/36 PRELIMS... CLL BB 072/091 073/092 075 -21 IAH BB 073/089 073/090 074 132 GLS BB 078/086 078/087 078 132 ======================================================================