FXUS64 KHGX 090758 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2001 ...A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLiiSON REMNANTS A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MACHINE! 4-6 INCHES/HOUR RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OVER HOUSTON METRO AREA W/LARGE SWATH OF TRAINING VERY HEAVY RAINSHOWERS EXTENDING SW TO BRAZORIA COUNTY. A BAD NIGHT INDEED. IF THIS KEEPS UP (ALREADY THE 4TH NIGHT IN A ROW)...SOME AREAS MAY VERY WELL APPROACH THE ANNUAL RAINFALL QUOTA. HIGH PW VALUES >2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AT LEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN REGIONS. MODELS SUGGEST SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL LOW (REMNANTS OF ALLISON) AND SHOULD BE JUST S OF GLS BY 24 HOURS. CONFLUENT FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS SUGGEST STRONGEST UVM WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO COASTAL WATERS BY SUNDAY. BOTH AVN AND ETA SHOWS CONTINUING DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER REGION NEXT 24-36 HRS. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF CWFA. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO NW GULF SUNDAY NIGHT... POPS SHOULD DRAMATICALLY LOWER ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MESO-ETA PROGGED SURFACE WINDS AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN. SURFACE FEATURES HAS BEEN INITIALIZED WELL OVER OUR REGION BY THIS MODEL W/SURFACE LOW OVER SW ZONES AT 09/06Z. MARINE AREA WILL HAVE CAUTION TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS AS SURFACE WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. CONTINUED STRONG WINDS DUE ACROSS GALVESTON BAYS WILL WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NO FLAGS FOR MATAGORDA BAY. NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST. 37/41 .HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA GALVESTON BAY. SCEC COASTAL WATERS. PRELIMS... CLL TT 083/071 088/072 088 954 IAH TT 083/072 086/072 086 +96 GLS TT 084/075 084/075 084 ++7 ====================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 091524 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1022 AM SAT JUN 9 2001 SEVERE FLOODING CONTINUES AFTER 28 INCHES FALLS IN HARRIS COUNTY. LARGE CORRIDOR OF 12-25 INCHES FROM SOUTHEAST HOUSTON TO NEAR TOMBALL TO NORTHEAST MONTGOMERY COUNTY. RECORD FLOODING OCCURRING ON SOME OF THE BAYOUS IN HARRIS COUNTY. I-10 LOOKS LIKE A BAYOU WITH SEMI TRACTOR TRAILER TOPS SCATTERED ABOUT. AVAILABLE PRODUCT: USP 18 HR END HOUR 1300 PRODUCT TIME 1254Z. ...A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LL CIRCULATION CENTER IN MATAGORDA COUNTY NNE OF PSX...BUT HAS A LESS DISCRETE CENTER THAN YDAY. MCV ROTATING THROUGH THE FEEDER BAND NEAR WINNIE AND BPT. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL OVER HARDIN AND PERHAPS POLK AND TYLER COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING. MODELS TAKE THE LL CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF...12Z ETA CREEPS IT OFFSHORE BEFORE OOZ SUN...IT MAY GO OFFSHORE BEFORE 21Z. THEN EAST WITH THE CIRCULATION...THIS COULD VERY WELL GIVE US ONE MORE EVENING AND NIGHT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. MODEL THEN TAKES THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BACK TOWARDS LA. STEERING WINDS ARE VERY WEAK AND MOTION BEYOND 24 HOURS COULD BE A CRAP SHOOT. WINDS AT GLS 1602OG25KT WITH MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A CLEAR SLOT OVER THE COAST IN BRAZORIA COUNTY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY HELP TO GET CONVECTION GOING...WHICH IT HAS ALREADY DONE NEAR THE CENTER OVER MATAGORDA AND BRAZORIA COUNTY AS IT IS POISED TO GO OFFSHORE! FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING IN ZONES. ANY CHANGES WILL BE MINOR. WILL ALTER THE CWF TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST THEN EAST WINDS WITH SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL HOIST THE SCA FOR ALL ZONES. 45/42/47/31/48/36 .HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA ALL. PRELIMS... CLL TT 081/071 088/072 088 954 IAH TT 083/072 086/072 086 +96 GLS TT 084/075 084/075 084 ++7 ====================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 091950 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2001 ...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 15 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE... SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS STILL UNDER AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE SURFACE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BRAZORIA-MATAGORDA COUNTY LINE. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND FOLLOW THE TPC PRODUCTS AND DISCUSSIONS CONCERNING POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF ALLISON. MORE IMPORTANTLY AT THE MOMENT IS THE CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN FIRING DURING THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (WITH STEADILY COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND INCREASING LIGHTNING STRIKES) STRETCHES FROM WINNIE TO PASADENA TO FRIENDSWOOD To PEARLAND TO NEAR NEEDVILLE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THE SURFACE SETTING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUATION AND EXPANSION OF THESE STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE SAME AREA. AS A RESULT...SERIOUS FLOODING HAS LIKELY BEGUN AGAIN! WILL CALL FOR 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AVERAGES WITH SOME 10 TO 15 INCH TOTALS...OR MORE...LIKELY BY TOMORROW MORNING! DUE TO POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF ALLISON...EXTREME RAINFALL RUNOFF INTO GALVESTON BAY AND THE UPPER COAST...AND ABOVE NORMAL TIDES... WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GALVESTON BAY. RAINS BEYOND TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON THE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF ALLISON. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR GRADUALLY DECREASING POPS AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST. 42/47/48/43/TF/KM .HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GALVESTON BAY. SCA GULF WATERS. PRELIMS... CLL TE 071/088 072/089 072 541 IAH TT 072/086 072/086 072 962 GLS TT 075/084 075/084 075 +73 ====================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 100131 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 830 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2001 A WELCOME BREAK IN THE ACTION AT THE MOMENT. HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM NOW-OVR THE GULF S OF FREEPORT. PRES FALLS NOTED ALONG THE COAST FROM GLS EWD...WITH BEST DROPS NOTED OVR LA. IF IT SHD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TNGT...HVY RAIN COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK INLAND. MESOETA HINTS AT REINTENSIFICATION OF PRECIP TWD MORNING...WITH THE BEST QPF OVR THE GULF. TROPICAL SYSTEMS ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO PRODUCE HEAVIER MORE CONCENTRATED RAINS LATE AT NIGHT VERSUS THE DAY AND WE ARE IN THE FAVORED NE QUAD OF THIS SYSTEM. AM INCLINED TO KEEP THE WATCH IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH RAIN IS FALLING AT THE MOMENT. NOTING SOME NW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY OVR GALVESTON BAY. WILL DO SOME RE-ADJUSTING TO ZFP WORDING...BUT CONT CHC OF HVY PRECIP LATE TNGT. MID SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE WATCH AREA AFTER THE OOZ MODELS ARE COMPLETE. PNSHOU ISSUED EARLIER THIS EVENING HIGHLIGHTING SOME OF THE PRECIP AMTS OVR THE LAST 5 DAYS. .HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GALVESTON BAY. SCA GULF WATERS. PRELIMS... CLL TE 071/088 072/089 072 541 IAH TT 072/086 072/086 072 862 GLS TT 075/084 075/084 075 973 =========================================================================