FXUS64 KHGX 080840 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 337 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2001 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ALLISON'S REMNANTS AROUND MADISONVILLE/KURTEN AREA AT 2 AM...DRIFTING WSW. PROJECTIONS OF THE MOTION ARE TO TAKE IT SSW TOWARD LA GRANGE-BELLVILLE AREA AROUND NOON AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AT THE VICTORIA AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE MOVING IT TOO QUICK. PW CURRENTLY RUNNING 1.90-2.0 INCHES VIA GPS AT GLS. SFC DWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND AROUND 77 ON THE COAST. FEEDER BAND DEVELOPING FROM NEAR SARGENT TO FREEPORT TO TEXAS CITY TO ANAHUAC AND THEN INTO THE MASSIVE BAND OVER TYLER/HARDIN/JASPER...RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2.2-3.5"/HR. WE EVEN HAD ONE STORM OVER CHAMBERS COUNTY POP A 60 VIL WITH A VERY PRONOUNCED WER. COASTAL COUNTY STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO GO SEVERE THIS MORNING...PULSE TYPE...MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO THREAT. WIDESPREAD RAINS CLOSER TO THE CORE SHOULD BE A REPEAT TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING FA INTO THE DEEP MOIST AXIS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TAP OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE TRAVERSING WEST AND SHOULD END UP POINTED RIGHT AT SETX. PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL BE EXTREME TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND COASTAL FA. WILL CONTINUE THE FFA THROUGH TONIGHT AND AM VERY CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTREME RAINFALLS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AND LOOK OUT SATURDAY! JUST TO REITERATE THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE/RECORD SETTING TOTALS! AVN HINTS THAT THE 1000-700MB CIRCULATION COULD GET BACK OUT OVER THE WATER NEAR MATAGORDA/MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY NIGHT?...I SURE HOPE NOT! MARINE...NO FLAGS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT SWELLS. EAST WINDS DEVELOPING MAY LEAD TO SOME MARGINAL TIDAL RISES. SPS ISSUED EARLIER WITH A RAINFALL SUMMARY AT THE MAJOR AIRPORT SITES SINCE ALLISONS INCEPTION. 45/37/40/48/T .KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. PRELIMS... CLL TT 082/072 082/071 085 ++8 IAH TT 082/073 082/072 084 9+9 GLS TT 084/075 084/075 084 ++9 ==================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 081443 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 945 AM CDT FRI JUN 8 2001 THE CENTER OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON IS NOW OVER BRENHAM. RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAINS NOW EAST OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. STRONGEST INFLOW OFF THE GULF THIS MORNING IS BRINGING EXTREMELY HEAVY AND PERSISTENT RAINS INTO EXTREME EAST TEXAS AND THE STATE OF LOUISIANA...AND MORE HEAVY RAIN THAT EXTENDS WELL SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF IS HEADED FOR THAT AREA. IT'S GOING TO BE A ROUGH DAY TO OUR EAST. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT SENT OUT THIS MORNING SHOWED RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO NEARLY 9 INCHES...AND A LOT OF THIS FELL OVERNIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING KICKING IN...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST AT RISK TODAY IS A CORRIDOR FROM WHARTON TO FORT BEND TO HARRIS TO MONTGOMERY COUNTIES WHERE THE SUN IS CURRENTLY SHINING. WILL DO SOME WORDING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ZONES TO REFLECT EXPECTED AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH TOTALS. BUT WHERE TRAINING DEVELOPS...WE COULD STILL VERY EASILY GET TOTALS IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE AGAIN. NEXT BIG ROUND OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS LOOK TO DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE ROTATION CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND INFLOW OFF THE GULF INCREASES. DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL...THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS NO WHERE NEAR FROM BEING OVER! 42/35/39/43/DH/30 .KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. PRELIMS... CLL TT 082/072 082/071 085 6+8 IAH TT 082/073 082/072 084 6+9 GLS TT 084/075 084/075 084 6+9 ==================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 082042 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 252 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2001 A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON REMAINS OVER THE BRENHAM AREA. WITHIN THE LAST HOUR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO LINE UP ALONG 1-45 IN NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO COOL-AND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ON THE INCREASE WITH THESE STORMS TOO. A MORE SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS (WITH COOLING TOPS TOO) CONTINUES TO THE NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER FROM AROUND SOMERVILLE TO ROANS PRAIRIE. THIS COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF THE EXPECTED EVENTUAL FORMATION OF A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BEGIN TO TRAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND LEAD TO THE INCREASING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODELS STRONGLY POINT TOWARD THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AND A CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SET UP TO THE NORTH OF THE HOUSTON AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE RAINFALL. IT IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO GET A GOOD FEEL AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT BY TOMORROW MORNING WE'LL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN SPOTS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND 5 INCHES AND APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 10 INCHES IN ISOLATED SPOTS. THESE NUMBERS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EVEN GREATER THAN 10 INCHES BEFORE THE NIGHT ENDS. OUR HEAVY RAINS SINCE TUESDAY HAVE LEFT GROUNDS VERY WET...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE MORE FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH POP FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN DECREASE TO A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS APPEAR TO BE THE TIME FRAME FOR THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RAINS AND FLOODS. 42/35/39/DH .HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION 0-60 NM WATERS. PRELIMS... CLL TT 071/082 071/082 071 +95 IAH TT 072/084 072/085 072 +97 GLS TT 075/084 075/084 075 +97 =================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 090117 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 810 PM CDT FRI JUN 8 2001 ...A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED IN 9 PM UPDATE... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON, STILL PROBABLY EASIEST TO TRACK WITH THE RUC 700MB CIRCULATION, CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE REGION WITH HEAVY RAINS. AT 7 PM, THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED ROUGHLY BETWEEN COLUMBUS AND SEALY, AND CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE ELLIPTICAL WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST AXIS. SEVERAL FACTORS ARE COMBINING TO FOCUS PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE AND NORTHEAST END OF THIS CIRCULATION, ONE ITEM BEING THE STRONGER BAROCLINICITY AT THE NORTHERN END WHERE THERE IS STILL A COOL CORE AT 700 MB, THE OTHER BEING THE SIMILAR ELLIPTICAL STRETCHING OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH EAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEING MET BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW FROM FREEPORT TO BEAUMONT. THIS IS PROVIDING A NEARLY STATIC SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WHICH CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE FROM PALACIOS TO PEARLAND, AND THIS CONVECTION IS SWEEPING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT THE UPPER CIRCULATION TRACKING WITH THE 700 MB FLOW. THIS IS CAUSING HEAVY RAINS TO TRAIN OVER PARTS OF FORT BEND, BRAZORIA, HARRIS, MONTGOMERY, AND WALKER COUNTIES. INCIDENTALLY, THE CURRENT RUC VALUES OF 1000MB MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE (-50) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 700 MB CYCLONE CENTER ARE THE HIGHEST I HAVE SEEN IN THE 4 DAYS I'VE WORKED THIS SYSTEM, AND CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE AGGRESSIVELY IN THIS REGION, COMPOUNDING THE ALREADY-ONGOING FLASH FLOOD SITUATION. AND THE FOREGOING MAINLY ADDRESSES THE ISSUE OF THE *HEAVY* RAINS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, PRECIPITATION OF SOME SORT WAS ACTIVE IN ALL 23 COUNTIES AT 730 PM. AS YOU MAY HAVE GUESSED FROM THE FOREGOING, WILL BE KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA, AND EXPECT IT WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY IF NOT BEYOND. SO MUCH FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM. WITH THE SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER ELLIPTICAL CIRCULATION AND CONTINUED ELONGATION OF THE SURFACE LOW, THE RESULT SATURDAY SHOULD BE A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BEAUMONT TO PALACIOS, WITH DECREASING STEERING FLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE UPPER LEVELS, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A (CONTINUING) HEAVY RAIN EVENT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. ON SATURDAY, THIS AXIS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO LIBERTY, SLIPPING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY, HOPEFULLY DRAGGING HEAVIEST PRECIP OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STILL, THE MUCH OF THE REGION IS IN FOR SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT TERM. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, UPPER CYCLONE SHOULD FILL A FEW METERS, BECOME AN OPEN WAVE, AND SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF, DECREASING PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR A MUCH-SOAKED SOUTHEAST TEXAS. STILL, WILL LEAVE THE CURRENTLY HIGH POP FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY, AND NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST. 38/36/30/41/35/48 .HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT TO RETAIN SCEC 0-60 NM WATERS. PRELIMS... CLL TT 071/082 071/082 071 +95 IAH TT 072/084 072/085 072 +97 GLS TT 075/084 075/084 075 +97