FXUS64 KHGX 070848 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 348 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2001 THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION "ALLISON" WERE CENTERED NEAR OR OVER HOUSTON COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. THE STORM HAS APPEARED TO BE DRIFTING SOUTH...THEN WEST SINCE MIDNIGHT. MODERATE RAINFALL AROUND THE LOW CENTER WAS AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS FURTHER SOUTH. THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONCERNS THE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THE MOVEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW. ALSO...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN REFLECTING BOTH TROPICAL AND COLD CORE LOW CHARACTERISTICS. CURRENTLY A CORE RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...THE GENERAL TREND DOES LOOK TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS BOTH THE ETA AND AVN SUGGEST. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SYSTEM WAS DRY SLOTTED VERY WELL AND THERE APPEARED TO BE TWO MOISTURE AXES OVER THE GULF. ONE WAS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE OTHER FROM THE YUCATAN...BOTH STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO LA AND EVENTUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY INTO ALLISON. WOULD EXPECT THAT AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD THESE AXES WILL MOVE OVER SE TX OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS OUTSIDE THE LOW CENTER...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS. OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK IN ORDER FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...LIKELY IN THE LATTER PERIODS. WILL REISSUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIDES SHOULD THUS RISE TO A FOOT OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. SEAS AND WINDS WERE CURRENTLY CAUSING ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER GALVESTON BAY AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS. PL-40 45 .KHGX...FFA EASTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. SCA GALVESTON BAY. SCA 00 TO 20 HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT. SCA 20 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL. SCEC MATAGORDA BAY. SCEC 00 TO 20 FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL. PRELIMS... CLL TT 086/072 086/071 088 866 IAH TT 085/073 085/073 087 766 GLS TT 085/075 084/075 084 665 ======================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 071312 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 812 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2001 UPDATE... WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT SITUATION. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. PREV DISC... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION "ALLISON" WERE CENTERED NEAR OR OVER HOUSTON COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. THE STORM HAS APPEARED TO BE DRIFTING SOUTH...THEN WEST SINCE MIDNIGHT. MODERATE RAINFALL AROUND THE LOW CENTER WAS AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS FURTHER SOUTH. THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONCERNS THE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. WE ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THE MOVEMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW. ALSO...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN REFLECTING BOTH TROPICAL AND COLD CORE LOW CHARACTERISTICS. CURRENTLY A CORE RAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...THE GENERAL TREND DOES LOOK TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS BOTH THE ETA AND AVN SUGGEST. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SYSTEM WAS DRY SLOTTED VERY WELL AND THERE APPEARED TO BE TWO MOISTURE AXES OVER THE GULF. ONE WAS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE OTHER FROM THE YUCATAN...BOTH STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO LA AND EVENTUALLY WORKING THEIR WAY INTO ALLISON. WOULD EXPECT THAT AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD THESE AXES WILL MOVE OVER SE TX OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE HIGH PW/S AND THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS OUTSIDE THE LOW CENTER...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS. OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK IN ORDER FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...LIKELY IN THE LATTER PERIODS. WILL REISSUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY...MAINLY WHERE THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIDES SHOULD THUS RISE TO A FOOT OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. SEAS AND WINDS WERE CURRENTLY CAUSING ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER GALVESTON BAY AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS. PL-40 45 .KHGX...FFA EASTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. SCA GALVESTON BAY. SCA 00 TO 20 HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT. SCA 20 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL. SCEC MATAGORDA BAY. SCEC 00 TO 20 FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL. PRELIMS... CLL TT 086/072 086/071 088 866 IAH TT 085/073 085/073 087 766 GLS TT 085/075 084/075 084 665 ======================================================================= FXUS64 KHGX 071458 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 958 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2001 AT THIS TIME THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON WERE LOCATED OVER HOUSTON COUNTY AT THE SURFACE AND MID LEVELS. THE IR AND WATER VAPOR INDICATED THERE WAS LESS DRY AIR ENTRAINED IN THE SYSTEM THAN EIGHT HOURS AGO...HOWEVER THE DRY SIDE OF THE STORM WAS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONTINUES TO BE THE AMOUNT AND EXTENT OF RAINFALL. RAINBANDS CURRENTLY AROUND THE LOW WERE BEGINNING TO MOVE IN A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AS OPPOSED TO TRAINING IN A WEST TO EAST MANNER FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. AM STILL CONCERNED THAT NEW BANDS WILL FORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AROUND THE LOW AND THAT THESE WILL TRAIN OVER COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. ALTHOUGH AM STILL NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THE SPECIFICS OF THE MODEL DATA...THE ETA CONTINUES TO SOUTHWARD TREND OF THE LOW...MOVING IT PAST THE CLL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD KEEP THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A CATEGORICAL POP SITUATION. THE DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE TX COAST MAY CAUSE A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND UPDATE THE FORECAST TO TAKE OUT THE MORNING REFERENCES. WILL ALSO CHANGE THE COASTAL ADVISORIES SO THAT THE SCA IS OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE ZONES AND SCEC OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. PL-40 45 .KHGX...FFA EASTERN TWO THIRD COUNTIES. SCA GALVESTON BAY. SCA 00 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT. SCEC 00 TO 60 NM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL. SCEC MATAGORDA BAY. ======================================================================= FXUS64 KHGX 072007 CCA AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...REMOVED CAUTION FOR BAYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 144 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2001 THE REMNANTS OF ALLISON WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SERIOUS AND DANGEROUS WEATHER PLAYER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON INTO THE WEEKEND. RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IN HOUSTON COUNTY WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE COLLEGE STATION AREA LATER TODAY. RAINS CONTINUE AROUND THE CENTER AND ARE FALLING OVER SATURATED GROUND. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS WHARTON AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ... PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE UNDER THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS. MODELS ATTEMPT TO BULLSEYE THE AREA (ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL REGIONS WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED SINCE ALLISON MADE LANDFALL) WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINS LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT CURRENT RADAR PICTURES SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM CLEVELAND TO THE WOODLANDS TO KATY. VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...BUT AS CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TODRIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF THE HOUSTON AREA...BEST INFLOW OFF THE GULF (WHICH HAS BEEN IN LOUISIANA AND HAS CAUSED HEAVY RAIN AND SERIOUS FLOODING THERE) WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS RECEIVED UP TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WHEN ALLISON MADE LANDFALL ON TUESDAY...AND OTHER AREAS GOT ANOTHER 5 TO 11 INCHES THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF 5 TO 10 INCH RAINFALL EVENTS AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS! THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. 42/35/43/39/DH .KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCEC ALL WATERS. PRELIMS... CLL TT 072/082 072/082 072 42877 IAH TT 073/082 073/082 072 42877 GLS TT 075/084 075/084 075 42877 ==================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 080118 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...REMOVED CAUTION FOR BAYS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 815 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2001 ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN 9 PM UPDATE... THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL REMAINS OF T.D. ALLISON WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. MOST RECENT CONSENSUS BASED MAINLY ON RADAR, SATELLITE & RUC - IS THAT THE 700 MB CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO BECOME DISTENDED WITH A NE-SW AXIS. IF THIS IS SO, AND THE LATEST RUC AND ETA FORECASTS PAN OUT, THIS MAY RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OR INTENSIFICATION OF PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS 700MB CYCLONE AXIS, MEANING (FOR TONIGHT) MAINLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA TO SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY, INCLUDING METRO HOUSTON. AND AS HAS BEEN WELL COVERED IN THE NEWS, MUCH OF THE HOUSTON AREA HAS BEEN THOROUGHLY DRENCHED DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS ALREADY. HOWEVER, THIS DOESN'T CALL FOR MUCH IF ANY CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST, SINCE ENTIRE CWA IS UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH - IT JUST MEANS WE MAY GET INTO A FLASH FLOOD WARNING SITUATION A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED, POSSIBLY BETWEEN 9 PM & MIDNIGHT. AND AS FAR AS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES, SINCE LARGE AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CONTINUE TO ORBIT ABOUT THE 700MB CIRCULATION, IMPOSSIBLE TO RULE OUT ANY AREA IN THE CWA AS NOT AT RISK, ALTHOUGH THE STRIP OF COUNTIES ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE YET TO REALLY RECEIVE COPIOUS RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT TREND OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TO SLIP GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING THEM INTO THE ACT YET. ELSE, NOT MUCH CHANGED IN THE 18Z RUNS REGARDING THE QUASI-STATIONARY NATURE OF THE REMAINS OF THE T.D. AND IN PARTICULAR THE MID & UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS, WHICH MAY PRESENT A PRECIP PROBLEM INTO NEXT WEEK. 38/36/30/48 .KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCEC 0-60 NM WATERS. PRELIMS... CLL TT 072/082 072/082 072 877 IAH TT 073/082 073/082 072 877 GLS TT 075/084 075/084 075 877 ====================================================================