FXUS64 KHGX 060840 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 340 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2001 CURRENT SITUATION INVOLVES THE REMNANTS OF ALLISON. THE STORM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AND WILL REISSUE THE MAIN PRODUCTS AT THE NORMAL TIMES TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE...INCLUDING THE LAST HLS FOR THE SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM AND AM NOT CONFIDENT OF THE SPECIFICS OF THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST PROBLEM CONCERNS THE EFFECTS OF THE DYING SYSTEM...MAINLY THE EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS CAUGHT UP IN THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IT LOOKS TO CONTINUE BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES INTO DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE AVN AND MRF THEN HINTING THAT THE RIDGE TO THE WEST MAY PUSH A BIT EASTWARD. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF THIS SCENARIO...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE RAIN FORECAST WORDING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED FORECAST AS IS. NOW CONCERNING THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM. CURRENTLY THE GRADIENT WINDS WERE STRONGEST ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAD REDEVELOPED NORTH OF HOUSTON AND WAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE CORE RAIN EVENT WAS CURRENTLY. WOULD EXPECT THIS RAIN AREA TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN REDEVELOPING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER CORE RAIN EVENT TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. COMBINING THESE FACTS WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE...RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD IN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT. .KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NORMANGEE TO SWEENY. SCA 00 TO 20 NM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT. SCA 20 TO 20 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL. PRELIMS... CLL TT 087/072 086/071 086 777 IAH TT 083/072 084/072 084 787 GLS TT 080/075 081/076 081 787 ======================================================================= FXUS64 KHGX 060842 COR AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 340 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2001 CURRENT SITUATION INVOLVES THE REMNANTS OF ALLISON. THE STORM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AND WILL REISSUE THE MAIN PRODUCTS AT THE NORMAL TIMES TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE...INCLUDING THE LAST HLS FOR THE SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM AND AM NOT CONFIDENT OF THE SPECIFICS OF THEIR SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST PROBLEM CONCERNS THE EFFECTS OF THE DYING SYSTEM...MAINLY THE EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS CAUGHT UP IN THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IT LOOKS TO CONTINUE BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES INTO DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE AVN AND MRF THEN HINTING THAT THE RIDGE TO THE WEST MAY PUSH A BIT EASTWARD. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT OF THIS SCENARIO...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE RAIN FORECAST WORDING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED FORECAST AS IS. NOW CONCERNING THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM. CURRENTLY THE GRADIENT WINDS WERE STRONGEST ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAD REDEVELOPED NORTH OF HOUSTON AND WAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL WINDS LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHERE THE CORE RAIN EVENT WAS CURRENTLY. WOULD EXPECT THIS RAIN AREA TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN REDEVELOPING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...MAINLY IN RAIN BANDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AM EXPECTING ANOTHER CORE RAIN EVENT TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE AREA...DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. COMBINING THESE FACTS WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE...RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD IN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT. PL-40 45/38 .KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NORMANGEE TO SWEENY. SCA 00 TO 20 NM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT. SCA 20 TO 20 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL. PRELIMS... CLL TT 087/072 086/071 086 777 IAH TT 083/072 084/072 084 787 GLS TT 080/075 081/076 081 787 ======================================================================= FXUS64 KHGX 061445 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 945 AM CDT WED JUN 6 2001 WE HAD BEEN COMPLAINING LATELY THAT WE NEEDED MORE RAIN. THE LAST 24 HOURS SHD KEEP US HAPPY FOR AWHILE. CIRCULATION CENTER FROM REMNANTS OF ALLISON NEAR LAKE LIVINGSTON THIS MORNING. ALL MODELS INDC THIS WILL MEANDER ARND THE CWA INTO AT LEAST THU GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT UNSETTLED LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. STG SUBSIDENCE ON THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW KEEPING THINGS CLR IN THE SW ZONES ATTM. WILL AT LEAST BRIGHTEN SKY COVER TO P/SUN...BUT KEEP IN CHC RW/TRW GIVEN INSTAB AND CRP PW OF 1.5". SHV AND LCH PW VALUES HIER...OVR 2". HI POPS E AND N LOOK GOOD. GIVEN SATURATED CONDS... CONVECTION THAT FORMS AND DUMPS HVY RAIN COULD QUICKLY PRODUCE RUNOFF PROBS ONCE AGAIN. WILL KEEP FFA GOING. MINOR TOUCHUPS TO TEMPS AND WINDS. NEW ZFP ARND 1030. .KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NORMANGEE TO SWEENY. SCEC GULF WATERS 0-60 NM. PRELIMS... CLL TT 087/072 086/071 086 777 IAH TT 083/072 084/072 084 787 GLS TT 080/075 081/076 081 687 (SW 344) ======================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 061957 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 255 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2001 CENTER OF OLD ALLISON TAKING HER SWEET TIME MOSEYING ARND THE XTRM NE PTN OF THE FA THIS AFTN. NONE OF THE MODELS MOVE IT VERY FAR OVERNIGHT. ETA HAS THE BIGGEST SHIFT AND SHOWS THE CENTER NEAR TYR BY MORNING. ALL OF THE MODELS LOOKED A LTL TOO FAR S WHEN VERIFYING AT 18Z. BIG ISSUE THIS AFTN IS WHAT TO DO WITH FFA IN PLACE. MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA HAS BEEN RAIN FREE TDA EXCEPT THE NE PTN. AMTS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN HEAVY. SUBSIDENCE KILLED PRECIP OVR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA SINCE MOST OF THE CWA WAS IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. WILL THIS PERSIST OVERNIGHT? WILL IT MAINTAIN A TROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC AND "BREATHE IN" AND INTENSIFY PRECIP WISE TNGT? GIVEN THAT IT IS INLAND AND COLD CORE...THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY. AM LEANING AT PRESENT TOWARD YANKING THE WATCH...BUT MENTIONING IN THE CANCELLING FFS THAT IT MAY BE REHOISTED IF HVY RAIN BECOMES A THREAT AGAIN. ETA/MESOETA INDC SOME VERT MOTION SETTING BACK UP TWD MORNING SRN PTNS. QPF WITH THIS SHOWS ABOUT 1/3" IN 6 HRS BY 12Z. THIS WOULD NOT POSE A FF THREAT EVEN WITH SATURATED CONDS. BUT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE...YOU HAVE TO TAKE MODEL QPF PREDICTIONS WITH A LARGE DOSE OF SKEPTICISM. THINK WE SHD BE ABLE TO FIRE UP SOME CONVECTION TMRW. PW VALUES FCST NEAR 2" STILL AND WE DESTABILIZE NICELY. CAPPING SHD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH H5 LOW STILL SPINNING OVR NRN SXNS OF THE FA. ALLISON CENTER REMNANTS BECOME HARDER TO FIND...LOOKS MORE LIKE A TROF. ETA QPF OUTPUT IS HEAVIEST N AND E OF WHATS LEFT OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH WOULD BE LARGELY OUT OF THE CWA IF CORRECT. NGM BULLSEYE IS NW OF THE CWA AS IT DRIFTS THE OLD CENTER SW TO A PSN BTWN VCT AND AUS. AVN HAS IT N OF BPT. SO AS THE BOOKIES WOULD SAY..."PICK EM". ETA DEVELOPS QUITE A SWATH OF PRECIP OVR SRN HALF OF CWA LATE THU NGT. NGM PICKS UP ON THIS INTENSIFICATION TOO...BUT OVR THE HILL COUNTRY. IF SFC TROF SETS UP NEAR THE COAST...COULD BE IN FOR ANOTHER INCREASED CHC OF HVY PRECIP BY THEN. IN SUMMARY...WILL BE MAINTAIN HI CHC TO LOW LKLY POPS OVR A LARGE PTN OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI. LOWEST NUMBERS SW. WIND FCST WILL BE A NIGHTMARE DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL SOLNS AND PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW. LUCKILY...SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO HIGH. MOISTURE TO HOLD IN OVR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY S. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME MENTION IN THE EFP. SIDE NOTE...BRENHAM AWOS SITE HAS BEEN RUNNING WARM LATELY ON ITS DAYTIME TEMPS. USE WITH CAUTION. 46/42/48/DH .KHGX...NONE. PRELIMS... CLL TT 071/086 071/086 071 566 IAH TT 072/086 073/085 073 466 GLS TT 076/084 076/084 076 356 ====================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 062044 AAA AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 255 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2001 HOUSTON COUNTY OEM REPORTS MINOR FLOODING STILL ONGOING DUE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN SWIRLING ARND ALLISON. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP FFA UP FOR COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE LIVINGSTON. -------------------------------------------------- OLD DISC... CENTER OF OLD ALLISON TAKING HER SWEET TIME MOSEYING ARND THE XTRM NE PTN OF THE FA THIS AFTN. NONE OF THE MODELS MOVE IT VERY FAR OVERNIGHT. ETA HAS THE BIGGEST SHIFT AND SHOWS THE CENTER NEAR TYR BY MORNING. ALL OF THE MODELS LOOKED A LTL TOO FAR S WHEN VERIFYING AT 18Z. BIG ISSUE THIS AFTN IS WHAT TO DO WITH FFA IN PLACE. MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA HAS BEEN RAIN FREE TDA EXCEPT THE NE PTN. AMTS THERE HAVE NOT BEEN HEAVY. SUBSIDENCE KILLED PRECIP OVR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA SINCE MOST OF THE CWA WAS IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. WILL THIS PERSIST OVERNIGHT? WILL IT MAINTAIN A TROPICAL CHARACTERISTIC AND "BREATHE IN" AND INTENSIFY PRECIP WISE TNGT? GIVEN THAT IT IS INLAND AND COLD CORE...THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY. AM LEANING AT PRESENT TOWARD YANKING THE WATCH...BUT MENTIONING IN THE CANCELLING FFS THAT IT MAY BE REHOISTED IF HVY RAIN BECOMES A THREAT AGAIN. ETA/MESOETA INDC SOME VERT MOTION SETTING BACK UP TWD MORNING SRN PTNS. QPF WITH THIS SHOWS ABOUT 1/3" IN 6 HRS BY 12Z. THIS WOULD NOT POSE A FF THREAT EVEN WITH SATURATED CONDS. BUT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE...YOU HAVE TO TAKE MODEL QPF PREDICTIONS WITH A LARGE DOSE OF SKEPTICISM. THINK WE SHD BE ABLE TO FIRE UP SOME CONVECTION TMRW. PW VALUES FCST NEAR 2" STILL AND WE DESTABILIZE NICELY. CAPPING SHD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH H5 LOW STILL SPINNING OVR NRN SXNS OF THE FA. ALLISON CENTER REMNANTS BECOME HARDER TO FIND...LOOKS MORE LIKE A TROF. ETA QPF OUTPUT IS HEAVIEST N AND E OF WHATS LEFT OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH WOULD BE LARGELY OUT OF THE CWA IF CORRECT. NGM BULLSEYE IS NW OF THE CWA AS IT DRIFTS THE OLD CENTER SW TO A PSN BTWN VCT AND AUS. AVN HAS IT N OF BPT. SO AS THE BOOKIES WOULD SAY..."PICK EM". ETA DEVELOPS QUITE A SWATH OF PRECIP OVR SRN HALF OF CWA LATE THU NGT. NGM PICKS UP ON THIS INTENSIFICATION TOO...BUT OVR THE HILL COUNTRY. IF SFC TROF SETS UP NEAR THE COAST...COULD BE IN FOR ANOTHER INCREASED CHC OF HVY PRECIP BY THEN. IN SUMMARY...WILL BE MAINTAIN HI CHC TO LOW LKLY POPS OVR A LARGE PTN OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI. LOWEST NUMBERS SW. WIND FCST WILL BE A NIGHTMARE DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL SOLNS AND PROXIMITY OF SFC LOW. LUCKILY...SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO HIGH. MOISTURE TO HOLD IN OVR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY S. SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME MENTION IN THE EFP. SIDE NOTE...BRENHAM AWOS SITE HAS BEEN RUNNING WARM LATELY ON ITS DAYTIME TEMPS. USE WITH CAUTION. 46/42/48/DH .KHGX...FFA NE ZONES TNGT. PRELIMS... CLL TT 071/086 071/086 071 566 IAH TT 072/086 073/085 073 466 GLS TT 076/084 076/084 076 356 ===================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 070140 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 825 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2001 WILL HAVE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES IN 9 PM UPDATE. LATEST NFD DISCUSSION OF T.D. ALLISON HAS STORM BECOMING STATIONARY OVER SE TX... AS MODELS HAVE PREDICTED FOR SOME TIME. PROBLEM BEING THAT THE MODELS ARE UNABLE TO BE AS ARTICULATE AS WE WOULD LIKE WITH THE WANDERING LOW EITHER AT THE SURFACE OR ALOFT. AS FOR THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM, IT HAS FAITHFULLY TRACKED WITH THE 700 MB CIRCULATION FOR THE PAST 30 HOURS WHILE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN OF LITTLE OR NO CONSEQUENCE, BUT MODELS SHOW AS MUCH VARIANCE WITH 700 MB CIRCULATION AS ANYTHING ELSE, THE ONLY CONSTANT BEING THE QUASI-STATIONARY NATURE OF THE FORECASTS. THE 18Z RUNS ADDED NOTHING OF IMPORT TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, AND THE FACT THAT THE LITTLE BIT OF CONVERGENCE SET UP BY THE SEABREEZE AND THE WEAK CIRCULATION AROUND THE T.D. WAS SUFFICIENT TO FIRE UP A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM JUST E OF HOUSTON TO WEST OF FORT POLK REINFORCES THE ARGUMENT FOR THE EASE WITH WHICH CONVECTION MAY FIRE ON THURSDAY WHEN UPPER SUBSIDENCE ON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SIDES OF UPPER CIRCULATION WILL NOT BE AS MUCH AN ISSUE AS TODAY. AND OF COURSE, FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, ALL THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALSO ANTICIPATES REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP TOMORROW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE MODELS IN THESE LATITUDES IN SUMMER - WELL IT'S ALMOST SUMMER - AND WITH THESE WEAK CIRCULATIONS IN PARTICULAR, HARD TO FORECAST TIMING, INTENSITY, OR EXTENT WITH ANY PRECISION - JUST THE CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL HAPPEN BECAUSE THE CONDITIONS ARE ALL RIPE EVEN IF THE MODELS ALL TURN OUT... IN VARYING DEGREES... TO BE WRONG. AND UNFORTUNATELY, NOT MUCH TO BE GAINED BY MERE OLD FASHIONED HAND ANALYSIS AND LOOKING AT LAST 12 HOURS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GOING BY EXTRAPOLATION, SINCE SYSTEM IS ALREADY NEARLY STATIONARY. AS SUCH, THUNDERSTORMS, SOME CARRYING NEARLY 1"/HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COUNTIES UNDER THE CURRENT FFA AND AM INCLINED TO RETAIN THE CURRENT FFA IN PLACE TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTES, THIS SYSTEM IS COLD CORE AT 700 MB, AND THOUGH IT DOES NOT SHOW A DEFINITIVE THERMAL CORE IN MODELS AT 500 MB DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH 500 MB CIRCULATION, 500 MB TEMPS OVER E TX ARE COOLER THAN THOSE E-W-N. STILL, WILL WAIT AND SEE IF CONVECTION IS INCLINED TO TAKE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND AFTER SUNSET BEFORE CONSIDERING TERMINATING OR RECONFIGURING THE CURRENT FFA. 38/36/BT .KHGX...FFA NE ZONES TNGT. PRELIMS... CLL TT 071/086 071/086 071 566 IAH TT 072/086 073/085 073 466 GLS TT 076/084 076/084 076 356 ======================================================================