FXUS64 KHGX 050833 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001 AN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT SE TX THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER TX COAST. MODELS HAVE NOT DONE TOO WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AVN AND ETA. FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS QPF AND STRENGTH OF THE STORMS. REPORTS FROM GALVESTON BAY OVER THE PAST HOUR INDICATE GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 40 KNOTS. THE AREA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. RAINFALL MAY BE ANOTHER PROBLEM...THOUGH THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE ON THE WATER VAPOR INDICATES THE BEST RAINFALL WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TO COVER THESE TWO POSSIBILITIES...WILL ISSUE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. BEYOND THE SECOND PERIOD THINGS GET A BIT FUZZIER. BELIEVE THE AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY...YET HOW MUCH SO REMAINS TO BE SEEN. SLOWING IT DOWN FROM WHAT THE MODELS SUGGEST POINTS TO ANOTHER DAY OF CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR THE EXTENDED THE AVN WAS DEFINITELY PLAYING A DIFFERENT TUNE THAN 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER EAST PUTTING THE AREA IN THE SUBSIDENCE ZONE. THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED IN THE AREA BY THURSDAY WILL PLAY A FACTOR ALSO. PL-40 45 .KHGX...SCA GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS. SCA 00 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL. PRELIMS... CLL TT 089/072 089/072 090 555 IAH TT 086/074 088/073 089 887 GLS TT 084/076 084/076 085 998 ======================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 051455 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 955 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001 "THE BLOB" CONTINUES TO GATHER STEAM OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING. PIECES OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BREAKING OFF AND MOVING INLAND. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING NORTH. LATEST ETA AND MESOETA DEVELOPING A WEAK SFC CIRCULATION AND TAKING IT N INTO MATAGORDA BAY EARLY WED. WINDS ALREADY WELL INTO SCA RANGE SW OFSHR ZONES. UPDATE ISSUED EARLIER. SEEMS PRUDENT TO ISSUE AN FFA FOR PARTS OF THE AREA GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY OFSHR. QPF FOLKS HAVE UPDATED THEIR OTLK AND INDC 5+" PSBL S AND E ZONES BY MORNING. HIGH POPS LOOK GOOD. WILL BE UPPING WINDS COASTAL ZONES. TRAJECTORY AND STRENGTH OF WINDS COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING PROBS LATE TNGT AND WED. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT ISSUE THIS AFTN. TEMPS LOWERED JUST A HAIR DUE TO PRECIP AND CLDS. NEW ZFP OUT ARND 1030 OR SO. .KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU WED ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM NORMANGEE TO SWEENY. SCA ALL MARINE ZONES. PRELIMS... CLL TT 087/072 089/072 090 555 IAH TT 084/074 088/073 089 ++7 GLS TT 083/076 084/076 085 ++8 ======================================================================= FXUS64 KHGX 051944 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001 THE TROPICAL SEASON IS UNDERWAY...AND WE HAVE THE MISFORTUNE OF HAVING TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST ONE...ALLISON. HPC GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM INLAND ACRS OUR SE COAST THIS EVENING. MAX WINDS AT PRESENT 50G60KT. QPF AMTS 5 INCHES PLUS AHD OF STORM. WON'T GO ON FOR PAGES DISCUSSING PARTICULARS...SEE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND OUR HLS'S. BEHIND ALLISON...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST. A LTL HEATING ON AN ATMOSPHERE WITH PW VALUES AOA 2" SHD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTION TMRW INTO TMRW NGT. WILL BE USING HIGH POPS RANGING FROM 50 NW TO CAT SE. MOISTURE REMAINS NEARLY AS HIGH INTO THU. ETA SHOWS SOME IMPRESSIVE UVV VALUES SRN ZONES. SO ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS LOOKS QUITE POSSIBLE THU. EFP LEFT UNCHANGED. MRF SHOWS LOWER MOISTURE LVLS BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR ISOLD CONVECTION EACH DAY. RDG A LTL TOO FAR WEST FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CAP WILL KEEP US COMPLETELY DRY EACH DAY. .KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU WED ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM NORMANGEE TO SWEENY. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SARGENT EWD. HIGH WIND WARNING MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO CO TNGT. PRELIMS... CLL TT 071/085 071/085 071 566 IAH TT 073/085 073/085 073 887 GLS TT 075/083 075/083 076 887 ======================================================================= FXUS64 KHGX 060147 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 845 PM CDT TUE JUN 5 2001 AS PER LAST TPC BULLETIN... THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF ALLISON IS NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND 60 MILES SSW OF GALVESTON, BUT APPARENTLY DRIFTING SLOWLY N AND LOSING A LITTLE STRENGTH AT 830 PM. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR NEXT TPC DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. ANYWAY, LATEST POSITION ALMOST AS EASY TO PIN DOWN BASED ON BUOY/SFC OBS VS. RADAR, AS THERE IS ALMOST NO CONVECTION ACTUALLY AROUND THE STORM CENTER. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS STILL GIVEN BY TPC AS 60KT, BUT THESE MAGNITUDES MUST BE VERY TIGHT TO ACTUAL CENTER... AS STRONGEST OBSERVED WINDS ALONG UPPER COAST ARE JUST AT OR BELOW MINIMUM TS STRENGTH. MOST OF THE HEAVIER WEATHER IS WELL TO NORTH, EAST, AND SOUTHEAST OF STORM CENTER. FOR MORE PARTICULARS...SEE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND OUR HLS'S. WILL WAIT FOR NEXT TPC TO UPDATE ZONES, SO UPDATE WILL BE A LITTLE AFTER 9 PM, BUT BIGGEST CHANGE WILL LIKELY TO BE TO DROP HIGH WIND WARNING FOR INLAND COUNTIES WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AND RAISE POPS FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS HEAVY RAIN AREA MOVES NORTH. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE LIKELY TO BE HANDLING THE INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW WELL, BUT INDICATE A TREND OF THE SURFACE CENTER TO PROBABLY MEANDER INLAND BY MIDNIGHT WITH A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY. AT ANY RATE, DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE WINDS WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA INLAND. BIGGEST PROBLEM IN VERY SHORT TERM REMAINS TORRENTIAL RAINS. HAVE HAD IN EXCESS OF 10" OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS TODAY, MANY RECEIVING 6" OR MORE IN THE 6 HOURS ENDING AROUND 7 PM. THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP APPEARS TO BE CLOCKING AROUND NORTHERN AXIS OF MID LEVEL (700MB) CIRCULATION WHICH IS WELL NORTH OF THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE T.S. CENTER. HENCE WILL KEEP CURRENT CONFIG OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THE MOMENT. AS FOR WHAT FOLLOWS BEHIND ALLISON, PRESUMING LANDFALL TONIGHT AND JUST DEALING WITH A PRECIP ENGINE OVER THE CWA, STILL APPEARS THAT PRECIP MAY CENTER NORTH AND EAST OF MID LEVEL LOW. ETA SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DISTRIBUTION, IF NOT THE MAGNITUDE, OF THE PRECIP, AND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS MOST OF CWA, TAPERING OFF GRADUALLY FROM SW IN 2ND AND 3RD PERIODS. PLANNING NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED. .KHGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU WED ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM NORMANGEE TO SWEENY. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SARGENT EWD. PRELIMS... CLL TT 071/085 071/085 071 776 IAH TT 073/085 073/085 073 887 GLS TT 075/083 075/083 076 887 ====================================================================