FXUS64 KHGX 040846 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 346 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2001 KHGX RADAR IS STILL DOWN. AWAITING ADDITIONAL TEST EQUIPMENT AND PARTS. OTHER RADARS NEARBY TO UTILIZE INCLUDE KEWX...KGRK...KLCH... KCRP...KFTW...KSHV...AND KPOE. THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO STAY OVER SE TX THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THE MAIN FEATURE BY MID WEEK. THE CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER AS WELL BY SENDING OUT A FEW WAVES OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE MODELS WERE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING OUT ALL THE LITTLE NUANCES. FELT IT BEST TO LOOK AT THE MAIN FEATURES FOR GUIDANCE AND TRY TO IGNORE THE SMALL DIVERGENT DETAILED SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT NO LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS EXPECTED FOR HELP IN ENHANCING ANY CONVECTION (THOUGH SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED ALONG THE COAST WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT SURFACE WINDS COMING OFF THE GULF). WITH THAT SAID...THE GENERAL TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE 00Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSES AND THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS OF A GOOD INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. SCATTERED POPS LOOK IN ORDER ALONG THE LOWER COAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE UPPER COAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY AND TUESDAY. FOR THE LATTER PERIODS THE MODELS WERE GIVING EVIDENCE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SE TX BY DEVELOPING A DEEP LAYER OF NORTHWEST WINDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD GET HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE VICINITY OF THE CAP TO THE WEST. THE FWC SHOWS A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM IN THE EAST AND WILL GO HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE THERE EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. ALL IN ALL...PERSISTENCE LOOKS GOOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WINDS AND SEAS WERE IN THE CAUTION CRITERIA. PL-40 30 .HGX...SCEC GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS. SCEC 00 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL. CLL BB 095/075 095/074 093 212 IAH EE 092/074 092/074 091 525 GLS EE 086/077 086/077 086 535 ===================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 041432 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 930 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2001 KHGX RADAR IS STILL DOWN. AWAITING ADDITIONAL PARTS AND TEST EQUIPMENT. EL TECH INDCS IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE BACK UP UNTIL AT LEAST TMRW. VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. LCH SOUNDING MUCH MOISTER VERSUS 24 HRS AGO WITH A CAPE OVR 5000. LOW LVLS ARE VERY MOIST WHILE A BIT OF A DRY PUNCH EXISTS IN THE MID LVLS. DISCUSSION FROM SPC INDCS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS. WILL MENTION SVR IN THE XTRM SE ZONES. ONLY SPOTTY ACTIVITY OFSHR AND IN THE SE ATTM. EXPECT THIS TO INCR IN COVERAGE NEXT FEW HRS AS SFC HTG INCRS. AREA OF WIDESPREAD RW/TRW IN THE GULF E OF THE WEAK H5 LOW WELL S OF HERE TAKING A SLOW TREK NWD. ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON LOCATION. ASSUMING ITS SOLN IS CORRECT...BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ARRIVES AT THE COASTAL DOORSTEP LATE TNGT AND EARLY TUE. PW VALUES FCST NEAR 2 INCHES AT GLS. IT REMAINS AOA 2 INCHES THRU EARLY WED. COULD BE A WET TUE AND WED FOR HOU AND PTS S AND E. WILL HOLD OFF ANY CHGS IN POPS UNTIL AFTN PKG. FIRST PERIOD NUMBERS LOOK OK FOR NOW. TEMPS RUNNING A LTL AHD OF MOS IN SPOTS. CURR MAXES HAVE THIS IN MIND...SO NO BIG CHGS TO TEMPS EXPECTED. DEWPT AT PSX IS 80 RIGHT NOW. LADIES AND GENTLEMEN...WELCOME TO SUMMER IN TEXAS. 46/37/DH .HGX...SCEC GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS. SCEC 00 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL. PRELIMS... CLL BB 095/075 095/074 093 212 IAH EE 092/074 092/074 091 525 GLS EE 086/077 086/077 086 535 ===================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 041826 AAA AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 125 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2001 THINGS HAVE SCOURED OUT NICELY COAST BEHIND FIRST BATCH OF CONVECTION. THINK THE SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THAT AND THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF WILL KEEP THINGS DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL BRIGHTEN UP FCST A BIT...ESPECIALLY COAST. REGULAR AFD ARND 200 PM. 46/37/DH ===================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 041939 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 240 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2001 RADAR DOWN UNTIL AT LEAST TMRW. SORRY FOR THE INCONVENIENCE...PROBS ARE APPARENTLY EXTENSIVE. WILL KEEP YOU UPDATED VIA AFD AND FTM'S. ETA AND AVN HAVE SWAPPED SOLNS VERSUS 24 HRS AGO. ETA NOW FURTHER W WITH WEAK H5 CIRCULATION THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY N INTO SETX TMRW AND TMRW NGT. MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THINGS AND IS IN A ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH NGM POPS. MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE NGM IS MOISTER. AVN DRIVES MOST EVERYTHING INTO LA. PW VALUES AOA 2 INCHES BY MORNING SE ZONES. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LIFT AHD OF UPPER LOW SHD GIVE SERN AREAS A GOOD SHOT AT RW/TRW. SLOW MOVEMENT SHD KEEP RAINS GOING INTO TUE NGT. THE SIG STUFF SHD SHIFT INTO NE ZONES BY WED. WILL USE CAT/LKLY POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA TUE AND TUE NGT...WITH 50S UP AT CLL. WILL TAPER POPS OFF WED AND WED NGT AS SYSTEM EXITS REGION. 46/37/DH .KHGX...SCA 20-60 NM GULF WATERS. SCEC ELSW. PRELIMS... CLL EE 074/086 072/089 072 155 IAH TW 074/086 073/089 073 488 GLS TW 077/084 076/085 076 599 ===================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 050141 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 841 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2001 FOR THOSE OFFICES THAT DON'T HAVE OUR FTM ALARMED - THE KHGX RADAR CAME BACK ON LINE AT 2117Z AFTER REPLACEMENT OF MODULATOR AND TRIGGER AMP - AND HOPEFULLY WILL REMAIN STABLE. THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE IN THE 18Z ETA & AVN RUNS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIP. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ETA AS FAR AS EXTENSIVE WIDESPREAD PRECIP GOES BUT PROBABLY A TAD FAST BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA TOO FAR INLAND TONIGHT. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, AVN TAKES BROAD 500 MB LOW ON A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AND HENCE FAVORS HIGHER POPS OVER EXTREME SE TX AND MOST OF LA AND LOWER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FOR TUE, TUE NIGHT AND WED. HOWEVER, THE ETA IS STILL FAVORED FOR TRACKING A LITTLE CLOSER TO "WHAT'S OUT THERE" IN THE 12Z AND 18Z INITIALIZATIONS, SO WILL LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RUN PRETTY MUCH WITH THE ETA TREND, BUT BACK OFF A LITTLE FOR POPS OVER INLAND AREAS TONIGHT AND ISSUE 9 PM UPDATE FOR THIS AND TO CHANGE 1ST PERIOD WORDING FOR TIME OF ONSET OF PRECIP. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES PLANNED. MARINE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY NEAR SHORE BUT SEAS STILL RUNNING 5 TO 8 FEET AND GRADIENTS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN A BIT LATER ON, SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT SCAS AND SCECS IN PLACE. 38/36/BT .KHGX...SCA 20-60 NM GULF WATERS. SCEC ELSW. ===================================================================== FXUS64 KHGX 050437 AFDHOU SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1135 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2001 WILL HAVE AN UPDATE TO ZONES SHORTLY FOR CONVECTION WHICH IS SURVIVING LANDFALL OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL COUNTIES. ALSO LOOKS LIKE PRIOR FORECAST WAS ONTRACK FOR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE 00Z RUNS HAD NO BIG NEWS IN THE SHORT TERM, AND STILL PREFER THE ETA WHICH IS KEEPING THE 7H-5H CYCLONE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN IN EARLIER RUN. AT ANY RATE, CONVECTION NOW CROSSING ACROSS THE 60NM OFFSHORE LINE, AND BEING DRIVEN NORTH AT 20-25 KTS BY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW, SO SHOULD REACH THE BEACH AROUND 3 AM LATEST. AND AS MENTIONED, ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY MAKING A LITTLE HEADWAY INLAND OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL COUNTIES, WHILE I HAVE THE HIGHER POPS AIMED JUST TO THE EAST. SO JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS, BUT WILL BE OUT IN A FEW MINUTES. 38 .KHGX...SCA 20-60 NM GULF WATERS. SCEC ELSW. =====================================================================