PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
722 AM CST MON DEC 10 2007

...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY...
...RECORD WARMTH LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...

A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY
BUT THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN UNSEASONABLY WARM SINCE SEPTEMBER...ALMOST RECORD
BREAKING FOR THE LENGTH AND INTENSITY.

IT IS NOT DEJA VU BUT JUST LIKE OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER...
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH HAVE BEEN
UNSEASONABLY WARM. FOR WHATEVER REASON...TEMPERATURES DURING THE
FIRST TEN DAYS OF EACH OF THE LAST THREE MONTHS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN
5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE SECOND HALF OF EACH MONTH HAS
TRENDED COOLER BUT EACH MONTH HAS ENDED WARMER THAN NORMAL.

SOUTHEAST TEXAS ENDURED A GREAT DEAL OF RAIN OVER THE SUMMER WITH
RAIN OCCURRING ALMOST DAILY IN JUNE AND JULY. THE RAIN BROUGHT
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
THINGS CHANGED SHORTLY AFTER TROPICAL STORM ERIN MADE LANDFALL.
SINCE AUGUST 17TH...MOTHER NATURE SEEMED TO HAVE TURNED THE
SPRINKLERS OFF AND THE THERMOSTAT UP. MONTHLY TEMPERATURES HAVE
AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL SINCE AUGUST.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE PERIOD SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER
HAS AVERAGED 72.9 DEGREES. THIS IS THE 13TH WARMEST SEP-NOV IN
RECORDED HISTORY. THE TOP FIVE WARMEST SEP-NOV ARE LISTED BELOW:

               1931 - 74.9
               1927 - 74.3
               1933 - 73.6
               2004 - 73.6
               1900 - 73.5

DECEMBER HAS ALSO BEEN VERY WARM. THE LAST TWO DAYS (8TH AND 9TH)
HAVE BEEN VERY WARM WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING ESTABLISHED
AT INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. THE EIGHTH AND NINTH HAVE AVERAGED AN
UNBELIEVABLE 23 AND 21 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL RESPECTIVELY.
THROUGH DECEMBER 9TH...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH HAS
BEEN 64.0 DEGREES. THE NORMAL VALUE FOR DECEMBER (THROUGH THE 9TH)
IS 56.8 DEGREES. BY PROJECTING NORMAL TEMPERATURE VALUES THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL DROP FROM 64.0
DEGREES TO 61.0 DEGREES STILL WELL ABOVE THE TYPICAL DECEMBER
MONTHLY AVERAGE (53.7 DEGREES).

IF WE ADD THIS NEW DECEMBER VALUE TO OBTAIN A FOUR MONTH AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR SEP-DEC...THE NEW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE VALUE
INCREASES TO 69.9 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE THE THIRD WARMEST SEP-DEC
IN RECORDED HISTORY. ONLY THE YEARS OF 1933 AND 1931 WERE WARMER
(71.3 AND 70.2 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY). HERE ARE A FEW OTHER
SCENARIOS: IF THE DECEMBER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS 62.3
DEGREES...THE SEP-DEC PERIOD WOULD BE THE SECOND WARMEST IN
RECORDED HISTORY. IT APPEARS THE WARMEST SEP-DEC IS OUT OF REACH
BUT THAT WOULD REQUIRE AN AVERAGE DECEMBER TEMPERATURE OF 66.8
DEGREES. THE CURRENT THIRD WARMEST SEP-DEC WAS 69.7 DEGREES AND
OCCURRED IN 1967. THE AVERAGE DECEMBER TEMPERATURE WOULD HAVE TO
DROP TO 60.0 DEGREES FOR SEP-DEC 2007 TO TIE THAT VALUE.

LONG RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS TEXAS. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER. LOOKING WAY
AHEAD TOWARD CHRISTMAS...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS FAVOR A WET
AND WARM HOLIDAY.

$$