DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
710 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011

                ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

         ...NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION STILL ENDURING
                     EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS...

          ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPAND SOUTHWARD...

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE KEPT WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. NONE OF THE PRIMARY OR
SECONDARY CLIMATE SITES REPORTED RAIN OVER THE LAST TEN DAYS.
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE LAST SEVEN WEEKS. SINCE FEBRUARY
1ST...IAH HAS RECEIVED ONLY 1.28 INCHES OF RAIN...CLL HAS RECEIVED
1.29 INCHES...HOU HAS RECEIVED 1.12 INCHES AND GLS RECEIVED 3.34
INCHES.

           HERE ARE THE FIVE DRIEST FEB 1- MARCH 24:

       CITY OF      HOUSTON      COLLEGE        GALVESTON
       HOUSTON      HOBBY        STATION

    0.03 - 1916   0.85 - 1954    0.03 - 1916    0.14 - 1916
    0.90 - 1954   1.12 - 2011    0.41 - 1943    0.25 - 1925
    1.25 - 2011   1.17 - 1996    0.54 - 1996    0.67 - 1954
    1.28 - 1996   1.58 - 1962    0.55 - 1972    0.80 - 2006
    1.46 - 1925   1.74 - 2006    0.61 - 1974    0.95 - 1976
                                 1.29 - 2011

HERE ARE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE LAST FIVE MONTHS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS:

LOCATION      OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB     TOTAL  PERCENT
                                                     OF NORMAL

BELLVILLE     0.00  1.28  0.98  2.75  0.76    5.77
NORMALS       3.70  3.76  3.16  3.33  2.48   16.43
DEPARTURE    -3.70 -2.48 -2.18 -0.58 -1.72  -10.66   35.1

BRENHAM       0.03  1.42  1.28  4.15  0.81    7.69
NORMALS       4.48  4.17  3.29  3.41  2.78   18.13
DEPARTURE    -4.45 -2.75 -2.01 +0.74 -1.97  -10.44   42.4

COL STATION     T   0.90  0.81  2.99  0.61    5.31
NORMALS       4.22  3.18  3.23  3.32  2.38   16.33
DEPARTURE    -4.22 -2.28 -2.42 -0.33 -1.77  -11.02   32.5

COLUMBUS      0.00  2.59  1.30  3.51  0.64    8.04
NORMALS       4.16  3.99  3.21  3.61  2.84   17.81
DEPARTURE    -4.16 -1.40 -1.91 -0.10 -2.20   -9.77   45.1

CONROE          T   5.33  1.49  4.04  0.61   11.47
NORMALS       4.70  4.79  4.37  4.21  2.97   21.04
DEPARTURE    -4.70 +0.54 -2.88 -0.17 -2.36   -9.57   54.5

CROCKETT      0.85  3.43  1.12  5.29  0.70   11.39
NORMALS       4.22  3.93  4.02  4.00  3.10   19.27
DEPARTURE    -3.37 -0.50 -2.90 +1.29 -2.40   -7.88   59.1

DANEVANG      0.00  2.40  4.28  3.62  0.37   10.67
NORMALS       4.56  3.68  3.08  3.23  2.67   17.22
DEPARTURE    -4.56 -1.28 +1.20 +0.39 -2.30   -6.55   62.0

GALVESTON     1.37  6.90  2.13  3.86  0.67   14.93
NORMALS       3.49  3.64  3.53  4.08  2.61   17.35
DEPARTURE    -2.12 +3.26 -1.40 -0.22 -1.94   -2.42   86.1

FREEPORT      0.03  3.86  1.75  4.21  0.84   10.69
NORMALS       4.52  4.42  3.51  4.29  2.84   19.58
DEPARTURE    -4.49 -0.56 -1.76 -0.08 -2.00   -8.89   54.6

HOU HOBBY     0.07  4.75  5.84  4.10  0.34   15.10
NORMALS       5.26  4.54  3.78  4.25  3.01   20.84
DEPARTURE    -5.19 +0.21 +2.06 -0.15 -2.67   -5.74   72.5

HOU IAH       0.02  2.71  3.04  5.05  0.69   11.46
NORMALS       4.50  4.19  3.69  3.68  2.98   19.04
DEPARTURE    -4.48 -1.48 -0.65 +1.37 -2.29   -7.58   60.2

HUNTSVILLE    0.58  2.01  1.23  3.62  0.37    7.81
NORMALS       4.32  4.87  4.10  4.28  3.14   20.71
DEPARTURE    -3.74 -2.86 -2.87 -0.66 -2.77  -12.90   37.7

LIVINGSTON    0.14  3.23  1.38  3.73  0.89    9.37
NORMALS       3.82  4.76  4.92  4.64  3.47   21.61
DEPARTURE    -3.68 -1.53 -3.54 -0.91 -2.58  -12.24   43.4

KATY          0.00  2.01  1.73  4.76  0.05    8.55
NORMALS       4.00  4.41  3.67  3.34  2.59   18.01
DEPARTURE    -4.00 -2.40 -1.94 +1.42 -2.54   -9.46   47.5

MADISONVILLE  0.21  1.05  1.09  2.89  0.81    6.05
NORMALS       4.41  4.01  3.62  3.81  2.83   18.68
DEPARTURE    -4.20 -2.96 -2.53 -0.92 -2.02  -12.63   32.4

MATAGORDA     0.05  2.85  1.66  3.42  0.61    8.59
NORMALS       3.72  4.19  2.57  3.63  2.81   16.92
DEPARTURE    -3.67 -1.34 -0.91 -0.21 -2.20   -8.33   50.8

MIDWAY        0.19  1.18  2.36  5.80  NA      9.53
NORMALS       4.17  4.08  3.82  2.92  2.81   17.80
DEPARTURE    -3.98 -2.90 -1.46 +2.88  NA

NEW CANEY     0.00  6.18  2.71  6.42  0.96   16.27
NORMALS       4.57  4.83  4.40  4.22  3.31   21.33
DEPARTURE    -4.57 +1.35 -1.69 +2.20 -2.35   -5.06   76.3

SOMERVILLE    0.03  0.88  0.80  2.77  0.41    4.89
NORMALS       4.33  3.63  3.14  2.93  2.53   16.56
DEPARTURE    -4.30 -2.75 -2.34 -0.16 -2.12  -11.67

TOMBALL         T   3.28  1.00  2.52  0.30    7.10
NORMALS       4.02  5.11  3.89  3.85  3.33   20.18
DEPARTURE    -4.02 -1.83 -2.89 -1.33 -3.03  -13.08   35.2

WASH ST PARK  0.00  1.17  1.29  3.76  0.66    6.88
NORMALS       4.38  3.68  3.30  3.54  2.74   17.64
DEPARTURE    -4.38 -2.51 -2.01 +0.22 -2.08  -10.76   39.0

W COLUMBIA    0.00  3.02  1.58  4.22  0.75    9.57

HERE ARE SOME MARCH RAINFALL TOTALS (THROUGH MARCH 24TH) AND THE
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

LOCATION       MARCH     DEP

ANAHUAC        1.12    -1.46
BELLVILLE      0.84    -1.46
BRENHAM        0.80    -1.43
COL STATION    0.68    -1.52
COLUMBUS       0.38    -1.85
CONROE         0.34    -1.89
CROCKETT       0.31    -2.33
DANEVANG       0.05    -2.11
FREEPORT       0.79    -1.45
GALVESTON      2.66    +0.55
HOU HOBBY      0.78    -1.64
HOU IAH        0.56    -2.03
HUNTSVILLE     0.07    -2.51
LIVINGSTON     0.84    -2.20
KATY           1.23    -0.82
MADISONVILLE   0.95    -1.59
MATAGORDA      0.15    -1.83
NEW CANEY      0.64    -2.44
PALACIOS       0.68    -1.46
RICHMOND       0.69    -1.67
SUGARLAND      1.40    -1.07
SOMERVILLE     0.06    -1.96
TOMBALL        0.91    -1.48
WASH ST PARK   0.89    -1.54

THE DRY PERIOD FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE AUTUMN OF
2010 AS A STRONG LA NINA PHASE DEVELOPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A BRIEF
WINDOW WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING LATE DECEMBER AND EARLY
JANUARY...THE OVERALL TREND SINCE OCTOBER HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.
COLLEGE STATION HAS RECEIVED ONLY 5.99 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE OCTOBER
1ST OR 32.3 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE NORMAL RAINFALL AT COLLEGE
STATION FOR OCTOBER 1 THROUGH MARCH 24 IS 18.53 INCHES.

                     DRIEST OCTOBER 1 - MARCH 24

           COLLEGE         CITY OF              HOUSTON
           STATION         HOUSTON (IAH)        HOBBY

          4.70 - 1951      7.24 - 1918          10.20 - 2006
          5.99 - 2011      9.17 - 2000          10.45 - 1956
          6.47 - 1925      9.21 - 1951          10.82 - 1951
          7.56 - 1967      9.66 - 1909          11.08 - 2009
          7.72 - 2009     10.17 - 1895          11.36 - 2000
                          12.07 - 2011 (15TH)   15.88 - 2011 (13TH)

THE LAST TIME THE HOUSTON AREA RECEIVED A SOAKING RAIN...DEFINED FOR
THIS STATEMENT AS A CALENDAR DAY WITH AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE OCCURRED ON
JANUARY 24TH. BELOW ARE DATES WITH THE LAST TIME THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCURRED DURING A CALENDAR DAY AT THE PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES:

SITE       2.00 OR MORE     1.00 OR MORE    0.50 OR MORE

IAH        SEP  7 2010      JAN 24 2011     JAN 24 2011
HOU        JAN 24 2011      JAN 24 2011     MAR 14 2011
CLL        SEP  7 2010      JAN  9 2011     JAN  9 2011
GLS        MAR  5 2011      MAR  5 2011     MAR  5 2011

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO WARM QUITE A BIT AS WELL. REMEMBER HOW
COLD THE FIRST 14 DAYS OF FEBRUARY WERE? THE SECOND HALF OF THE
MONTH WAS VERY WARM AND THE THERMOSTAT HAS BEEN STUCK ON HIGH EVER
SINCE. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SINCE FEBRUARY 15TH HAS BEEN THE
WARMEST ON RECORD FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON...HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT
AND COLLEGE STATION. GALVESTON HAS ENDURED IT`S FIFTH WARMEST PERIOD
ON RECORD.

HERE ARE THE FIVE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOUR PRIMARY
CLIMATE SITES FROM FEBRUARY 15TH THROUGH MARCH 24TH:

          CITY OF       HOUSTON      COLLEGE      GALVESTON
          HOUSTON       HOBBY        STATION

          66.7 2011     67.9 2011    66.5 2011    67.9 1907
          65.7 1921     66.3 2000    64.8 1904    66.9 1882
          65.4 1918     65.6 1972    64.6 1916    65.4 1972
          65.3 1916     64.7 1986    64.4 1982    64.8 1887
          65.2 1925     64.7 1974    64.2 1972    64.7 2011

AS OF MARCH 22ND 2011...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWED MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN EXTREME DROUGHT OR D-3. SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED SOUTH AND NOW COVER MUCH OF THE
REGION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND WEST OF OF U.S. HIGHWAY 59.

BELOW IS A LIST OF COUNTIES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE CLASSIFICATION AS
DESIGNATED BY THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS OF MARCH 22ND:

                 D-3           D-2           D-1

               EXTREME        SEVERE       MODERATE
               DROUGHT        DROUGHT      DROUGHT

               AUSTIN         COLORADO     BRAZORIA
               BRAZOS         LIBERTY      CHAMBERS
               BURLESON       MONTGOMERY   FORT BEND
               GRIMES         WALLER       GALVESTON
               HOUSTON        WALKER       HARRIS
               MADISON                     JACKSON
               POLK                        MATAGORDA
               SAN JACINTO
               TRINITY
               WALKER
               WASHINGTON


                 U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS


BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:

D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS
   A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING
   A WATER EMERGENCY.

D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD WATER
   SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.

D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER
   SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS
   OR WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
   WATER DEFICITS.


FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX.S OR FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY SINCE OCTOBER 2008. THE LAST SIX
WEEKS HAVE BEEN VERY DRY AND LONG RANGE OUTLOOK INDICATES DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MAY. THE 6 TO 10 DAY
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY DOES SHOW SOME PROMISE OF INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF MARCH. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AND THIS TREND WILL EXTEND
INTO EARLY SUMMER.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LOW. PONDS AND STOCK TANK WATER LEVELS
BEGAN TO DROP. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS WERE SUPPLEMENTING CATTLE WITH
HAY AND PROTEIN. WINTER PASTURES LOOKED GOOD BUT SHOWED LITTLE
GROWTH. RICE FARMERS WERE PLANTING...USING NO-TILL DRILLS TO LIMIT
WIND BLOWN EROSION.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU (ALL LOWER CASE).

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WAS LESS CRITICALLY DRY...LESS THAN 3 PERCENT
NORTHWEST OF A LIVINGSTON TO THE WOODLANDS TO COLLEGE STATION LINE.
100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WAS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT NORTHEAST A FREEPORT
TO COLUMBUS LINE. THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN 1000 HOUR DEAD FUEL WAS
LESS THAN 18 PERCENT WEST OF A CLEVELAND TO WHARTON TO EDNA LINE AND
LESS THAN 16 PERCENT WEST OF A CROCKETT TO HUNTSVILLE TO BRENHAM
LINE. THE DAILY FIRE MAP AND FIVE DAY AVERAGES SHOW A MODERATE TO HIGH
RISK FOR FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LESS THAN NORMAL RAINFALL HAS
HELPED TO RAISE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
VALUES BETWEEN 700 AND 800 ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THE
KBDI VALUES IN BURLESON COUNTY NOW EXCEED 600. BELOW IS A TABLE WITH
KBDI VALUES (3/25/2011):

     600-700       500-600       500-400       400-300     300-200

     BRAZOS        AUSTIN        BRAZORIA      FORT BEND   CHAMBERS
     BURLESON      COLORADO      LIBERTY       HARRIS
                   GRIMES        MATAGORDA
                   HOUSTON       MONTGOMERY
                   JACKSON       POLK
                   MADISON       SAN JACINTO
                   TRINITY       WALLER
                   WALKER        WHARTON
                   WASHINGTON

(SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/
KBDI_DAILY/ KBDICOUNTY.PNG).

RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS...

BURN BANS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE STATE AND 177 COUNTIES HAVE ISSUED
BURN BANS. LOCALLY...OVER HALF THE COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
HAVE ISSUED BURN BANS. TRINITY COUNTY HAS REISSUED A BURN BAN.
WALLER COUNTY DROPPED ITS BURN BAN DESPITE NO RAIN IN THE LAST TEN
DAYS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. A 400 ACRE WILDFIRE
OCCURRED IN SAN JACINTO COUNTY ON MARCH 20-21.

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON MARCH 25TH 2011...
(HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/ DECBAN.PNG)...A BURN BAN IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...GRIMES...JACKSON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON AND
WHARTON.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY
AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGIN.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL AND AREA RESERVOIRS LOCATED IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION HAVE BEGUN TO DROP.

     WATERSHED                   CAPACITY

LAKE LIVINGSTON                100.0 PERCENT
LAKE CONROE                     93.0 PERCENT
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE             97.8 PERCENT
LAKE HOUSTON                   100.0 PERCENT
LAKE SOMERVILLE                 84.8 PERCENT
LAKE TEXANA                     74.5 PERCENT

WATER RESTRICTIONS...NONE AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THIS
FEATURE WILL IMPINGE ON SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHUNTING WEATHER MAKERS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN THROUGH MARCH 29TH.
LONG RANGE MODELS DO OFFER SOME HOPE OF RAIN MARCH 30-31. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP MOISTURE COULD GIVE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN. IF LONG RANGE MODELS VERIFY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.

THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK ISSUED MARCH 17 2011 VALID FOR THE
PERIOD OF MARCH...APRIL AND MAY SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
OR INTENSIFY.

THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR AROUND MARCH 30 2011.

$$

CR

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