DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1012 AM CST THU MAR 3 2011

                 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

         ...NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION STILL ENDURING
                     EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS...

           ...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST TWO WEEKS OF FEBRUARY HAVE BEEN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY.
THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS VERY DRY WITH MOST OF THE CLIMATE
SITES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS REPORTING LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN FOR
THE MONTH. COLLEGE STATION REPORTED IT`S TENTH DRIEST FEBRUARY ON
RECORD. HOUSTON RECORDED IT`S EIGHT DRIEST FEBRAURY...HOUSTON HOBBY
AIRPORT RECORDED IT`S SECOND DRIEST FEBRUARY. GALVESTON...WITH
RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1875...HAD IT`S 13TH DRIEST FEBRUARY.

DRY CONDITIONS INTENSIFIED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE FALL
WITH A BRIEF RESPITE FROM DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST WEEK OF
DECEMBER AND THE FIRST THREE WEEKS OF JANUARY. DROUGHT CONDITIONS
HAVE INTENSIFIED RECENTLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE
LAST WEEK OF JANUARY AND PERSISTING THROUGH FEBRUARY. HERE ARE SOME
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE LAST SEVEN MONTHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS:

LOCATION      AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB     TOTAL

BELLVILLE     1.31  3.22  0.00  1.28  0.98  2.75  0.76    10.30
NORMALS       3.10  3.53  3.70  3.76  3.16  3.33  2.48    23.06
DEPARTURE    -1.79 -0.31 -3.70 -2.48 -2.18 -0.58 -1.72   -12.76

BRENHAM       0.59  6.24  0.03  1.42  1.28  4.15  0.81    14.52
NORMALS       3.14  4.83  4.48  4.17  3.29  3.41  2.78    26.10
DEPARTURE    -2.55 +1.41 -4.45 -2.75 -2.01 +0.74 -1.97   -11.58

COL STATION   0.33  5.81    T   0.90  0.81  2.99  0.61    11.45
NORMALS       2.63  3.91  4.22  3.18  3.23  3.32  2.38    22.87
DEPARTURE    -2.30 +1.90 -4.22 -2.28 -2.42 -0.33 -1.77   -11.42

COLUMBUS      0.23  5.09  0.00  2.59  1.30  3.51  0.64    13.36
NORMALS       3.07  3.92  4.16  3.99  3.21  3.61  2.84    24.80
DEPARTURE    -2.84 +1.17 -4.16 -1.40 -1.91 -0.10 -2.20   -11.44

CONROE        1.79  2.83    T   5.33  1.49  4.04  0.61    16.09
NORMALS       3.73  4.46  4.70  4.79  4.37  4.21  2.97    29.23
DEPARTURE    -1.94 -1.63 -4.70 +0.54 -2.88 -0.17 -2.36   -13.14

CROCKETT      3.33  2.80  0.85  3.43  1.12  5.29  0.70    17.52
NORMALS       2.81  4.12  4.22  3.93  4.02  4.00  3.10    26.20
DEPARTURE    +0.52 -1.32 -3.37 -0.50 -2.90 +1.29 -2.40   - 8.68

DANEVANG      3.96  7.04  0.00  2.40  4.28  3.62  0.37    22.01
NORMALS       3.83  5.62  4.56  3.68  3.08  3.23  2.67    26.67
DEPARTURE    +0.13 +1.42 -4.56 -1.28 +1.20 +0.39 -2.30   - 4.66

HOU HOBBY     1.40  6.63  0.07  4.75  5.84  4.10  0.34    23.13
NORMALS       4.54  5.62  5.26  4.54  3.78  4.25  3.01    31.00
DEPARTURE    -3.14 +1.01 -5.19 +0.21 +2.06 -0.15 -2.67   - 7.87

HOU IAH       1.02  4.81  0.02  2.71  3.04  5.05  0.69    17.34
NORMALS       3.83  4.33  4.50  4.19  3.69  3.68  2.98    27.20
DEPARTURE    -2.81 +0.48 -4.48 -1.48 -0.65 +1.37 -2.29   - 9.90

HUNTSVILLE    0.18  2.58  0.58  2.01  1.23  3.62  0.37    10.57
NORMALS       3.69  4.73  4.32  4.87  4.10  4.28  3.14    29.13
DEPARTURE    -3.51 -2.15 -3.74 -2.86 -2.87 -0.66 -2.77   -18.56

LIVINGSTON    0.44  3.33  0.14  3.23  1.38  3.73  0.89    13.14
NORMALS       3.41  4.73  3.82  4.76  4.92  4.64  3.47    29.75
DEPARTURE    -2.97 -1.40 -3.68 -1.53 -3.54 -0.91 -2.58   -16.61

KATY          2.32  3.66  0.00  2.01  1.73  4.76  0.05    14.53
NORMALS       3.09  4.45  4.00  4.41  3.67  3.34  2.59    25.55
DEPARTURE    -0.77 -0.79 -4.00 -2.40 -1.94 +1.42 -2.54   -11.02


MADISONVILLE  0.18  4.68  0.21  1.05  1.09  2.89  0.81    10.91
NORMALS       2.95  4.20  4.41  4.01  3.62  3.81  2.83    25.83
DEPARTURE    -2.77 +0.48 -4.20 -2.96 -2.53 -0.92 -2.02   -14.92

MIDWAY        3.88  2.27  0.19  1.18  2.36  5.80  NA      15.68
NORMALS       2.14  4.32  4.17  4.08  3.82  2.92  2.81
DEPARTURE    +1.74 -2.05 -3.98 -2.90 -1.46 +2.88

NEW CANEY     0.82  4.93  0.00  6.18  2.71  6.42  0.96     22.02
NORMALS       3.14  4.84  4.57  4.83  4.40  4.22  3.31     29.31
DEPARTURE    -2.32 +0.09 -4.57 +1.35 -1.69 +2.20 -2.35    - 7.29

SOMERVILLE    0.44  3.73  0.03  0.88  0.80  2.77  0.41      9.06
NORMALS       2.43  3.59  4.33  3.63  3.14  2.93  2.53     22.58
DEPARTURE    -1.99 +0.14 -4.30 -2.75 -2.34 -0.16 -2.12    -13.52


TOMBALL       0.70  3.10    T   3.28  1.00  2.52  0.30     10.90
NORMALS       3.73  4.75  4.02  5.11  3.89  3.85  3.33     28.68
DEPARTURE    -3.03 -1.65 -4.02 -1.83 -2.89 -1.33 -3.03    -17.78

W COLUMBIA    3.84 10.74  0.00  3.02  1.58  4.22  NA       23.40

THESE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE BELOW NORMAL AND MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE SUFFERING 5 TO 15 INCH RAINFALL DEFICITS SINCE
AUGUST 1ST OF LAST YEAR. THE LAST SEVEN MONTHS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY
DRY OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. COLLEGE STATION AND
LAKE SOMERVILLE ENDURED LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN FOUR OUT OF THE
LAST FIVE MONTHS AND FIVE OUT OF THE LAST SEVEN.

AS OF MARCH 1ST 2011...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWED MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN EXTREME DROUGHT OR D-3. DESPITE
THE RECENT DRY SPELL...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION IS ENDURING
ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF COUNTIES AND THEIR RESPECTIVE CLASSIFICATION AS
DESIGNATED BY THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AS OF FEBRUARY 15TH:


       D-3            D-2          D-1           D-0
     EXTREME        SEVERE       MODERATE    ABNORMALLY
     DROUGHT        DROUGHT      DROUGHT         DRY

     BRAZOS         AUSTIN       BRAZORIA     JACKSON
     BURLESON       COLORADO     CHAMBERS
     GRIMES         MONTGOMERY   FORT BEND
     HOUSTON        SAN JACINTO  GALVESTON
     MADISON        WALLER       HARRIS
     POLK                        LIBERTY
     TRINITY                     MATAGORDA
     WALKER                      WHARTON
     WASHINGTON

                 U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS


BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:

D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS
   A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING
   A WATER EMERGENCY.

D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD WATER
   SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.

D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER
   SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS
   OR WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
   WATER DEFICITS.


FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX.S OR FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY SINCE OCTOBER 2008. THE OVERALL TREND
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS WILL BE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH SPRING AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS SUMMER.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS WERE LOW. ROW CROP PRODUCERS BEGAN PLANTING
CORN...SORGHUM AND SUNFLOWERS. WINTER WHEAT LOOKED GOOD IN MOST
AREAS. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS WERE SUPPLEMENTING CATTLE WITH HAY AND
PROTEIN. LIVESTOCK PONDS WERE LOW. WARM SEASONAL GRASSES HAVE
EMERGED DUE TO THE WARM WEATHER.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU (ALL LOWER CASE).

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE WAS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OVER MOST OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH PARTS OF EASTERN HARRIS...GALVESTON AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN 1000
HOUR DEAD FUEL WAS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEST OF A LIVINGSTON TO MONT
BELVIEU TO PALACIOS LINE AND LESS THAN 18 PERCENT WEST OF A
MADISONVILLE TO BRENHAM LINE. THE DAILY FIRE MAP AND FIVE DAY
AVERAGES SHOW A MODERATE RISK FOR FIRE DANGER ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A HIGH RISK OVER PARTS OF JACKSON...WHARTON AND
COLORADO COUNTIES.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MEAGER RAINFALL HAS HELPED TO
RAISE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. VALUES
BETWEEN 700 AND 800 ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THERE ARE
NO COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A KBDI VALUE OVER 600. THE 8 TO
14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK SHOWS CONDITIONS TO REMAIN WARM AND DRY
SO THE KBDI VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE MONTH. BELOW IS A TABLE WITH KBDI VALUES (3/02/2011):

        500-600       400-500       300-400       200-300

        AUSTIN        COLORADO      BRAZORIA      CHAMBERS
        BRAZOS        HOUSTON       FORT BEND
        BURLESON      JACKSON       HARRIS
        GRIMES        MONTGOMERY    LIBERTY
        MADISON       TRINITY       MATAGORDA
        WASHINGTON    WALKER        POLK
                      WALLER        SAN JACINTO
                                    TRINITY

(SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/
KBDI_DAILY/ KBDICOUNTY.PNG).

RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS...

BURN BANS ARE MAKING A STRONG COMEBACK DUE TO DRY GROUND FUELS. DRY GROUND
FUELS COUPLED WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 17 DAYS AGO...ONLY
SIX COUNTIES HAD ISSUED BURN BANS...BUT AS OF MARCH 3RD...13
COUNTIES NOW HAVE A BURN BAN IN EFFCT.

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON MARCH 3 2011...
(HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/ DECBAN.PNG)...A BURN BAN IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...GRIMES...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND
WHARTON.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY
AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGIN.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL AND AREA RESERVOIRS LOCATED IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION HAVE BEGUN TO DROP.

     WATERSHED                   CAPACITY

LAKE LIVINGSTON                100.0 PERCENT
LAKE CONROE                     93.2 PERCENT
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE             97.8 PERCENT
LAKE HOUSTON                   100.0 PERCENT
LAKE SOMERVILLE                 86.3 PERCENT
LAKE TEXANA                     78.3 PERCENT

WATER RESTRICTIONS...NONE AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL BE FAST
MOVING SO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND BRING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE 9TH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON THE 9TH WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH SOME HALF INCH TOTALS NEAR THE COAST.

THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK ISSUED MARCH 3 2011 VALID FOR THE
PERIOD OF MARCH...APRIL AND MAY SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
OR POSSIBLY INTENSIFY.

THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON OR AROUND MARCH 10 2011.

$$

CR


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