DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1230 PM CDT FRI DEC 3 2010

                 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

        ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
                        OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...
OCTOBER 2010 WAS ONE OF THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. RAIN RETURNED IN NOVEMBER WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND AROUND GALVESTON BAY. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL
DURING NOVEMBER...MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVED LESS THAN THE NORMAL
VALUE EXPECTED DURING THE MONTH. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENED NORTH
OF A COLUMBUS TO LIVINGSTON LINE DUE TO THE LIGHTER THAN NORMAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THAT PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DURING
OCTOBER...MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS DID NOT RECEIVE A
DROP OF RAIN. NOVEMBER STARTED OUT A BIT BETTER WITH RAIN COVERING
THE ENTIRE REGION ON NOVEMBER 2ND. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
DURING NOVEMBER OCCURRED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
LEAGUE CITY WITH A TOTAL OF 7.66 INCHES. THE DRIEST LOCATION IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING NOVEMBER WAS IN MADISONVILLE WITH A PALTRY
0.70 INCHES OF RAIN. MADISONVILLE HAS RECEIVED ONLY 3.67 INCHES OF
RAIN SINCE AUGUST 1ST. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE...GALVESTON
RECEIVED 4.10 INCHES OF RAIN ON NOVEMBER 2ND.

A STRONG LA NINA PHASE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WINTER. THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN USUALLY BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL. THIS LA NINA PHASE IS FORECAST TO BE ONE OF THE STRONGER
EVENTS ON RECORD. OTHER YEARS WITH STRONG LA NINA SIGNALS ARE 1916...
1917...1955...1975 AND 1999. BELOW ARE TABLES WITH THE RAINFALL
DURING THE WINTER MONTHS FOR THOSE LA NINA EPISODES:

                           HOUSTON

YEAR      OCT     NOV     DEC     JAN     FEB     MAR     YEAR

1916/17   1.05    2.31    3.68    1.29    1.56    0.65    35.85
1917/18   0.32    0.93    1.19    0.96    1.69    3.25    17.66#
1955/56   0.71    1.36    1.90    3.19    1.80    1.23    41.08
1975/76   5.62    2.08    3.61    1.39    0.38    1.53    50.97
1999/00   0.56    1.53    2.20    1.25    2.32    1.35    28.04

NORMAL    4.50    4.19    3.69    3.68    2.98    3.36

                            GALVESTON

YEAR      OCT     NOV     DEC     JAN     FEB     MAR     YEAR

1916/17   0.99    2.16    0.79    2.21    2.51    0.91    30.86
1917/18   1.49    0.97    1.00    0.54    1.11    1.65    21.43*
1955/56   2.68    0.51    2.41    2.44    1.87    1.14    34.09
1975/76   4.83    4.56    3.96    3.41    1.07    1.39    42.06
1999/00   3.00    1.59    5.81    1.74    1.71    1.92    33.61

NORMAL    3.49    3.64    3.53    4.08    2.61    2.76

                           COLLEGE STATION

YEAR      OCT     NOV     DEC     JAN     FEB     MAR     YEAR

1916/17   1.55    1.91    0.49    1.90    2.37    0.55    28.83
1917/18   0.22    0.93    0.24    1.87    4.51    0.50    16.66#
1955/56   0.37    0.85    1.53    3.15    3.37    1.34    25.08
1975/76   3.88    1.01    1.11    1.18    1.17    3.66    38.00
1999/00   1.58    1.09    1.54    3.14    0.91    2.57    24.62

NORMAL    4.22    3.18    3.23    3.32    2.38    2.84

# DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD
* 2ND DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD
  YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1916...1917...1955...1975 AND 1999

AS OF DECEMBER 2ND 2010...RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM THE 30 YEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ARE APPROACHING TEN INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ALL FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE RUNNING BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR.

SITE    YTD RAIN    30 YEAR AVG RAIN    DEPARTURE

IAH      39.68         44.41             -4.73
HOU      41.18         50.44             -9.26
GLS      31.01         40.55             -9.54
CLL      26.97         36.64             -9.67


AS OF DECEMBER 1 2010...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THE BULK OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THAT AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO NEW
WAVERLY TO TRINITY TO COLDSPRING LINE...IN SEVERE DROUGHT OR D-2.
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IS IN
MODERATE DROUGHT OR D-1...AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES ARE CLASSIFIED AS
D-0 OR ABNORMALLY DRY.

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES BROUGHT SEVERAL COLD FRONTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
MOISTURE WAS PLENTIFUL WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM ON NOVEMBER 2ND BUT
SUBSEQUENT FRONTS WERE MOISTURE STARVED AND CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
RAINFALL TOTALS WERE MEASURED DURING THE LAST THREE WEEKS OF
NOVEMBER.

HERE ARE SOME FOUR MONTH RAINFALL TOTALS FOR COMMUNITIES LOCATED IN
DROUGHT AREAS DESIGNATED AS D-2:

COMMUNITY       AUG     SEP     OCT     NOV     TOTAL     DEP

BELLVILLE       1.31    3.25    0.00    1.28    5.84    -8.25
BRENHAM         0.59    6.24    0.03    1.42    8.28    -8.34
COL STATION     0.33    5.81    TRACE   0.90    7.04    -6.90
CROCKETT        3.33    2.80    0.85    3.43   10.41    -4.67
HUNTSVILLE      0.18    2.58    0.58    2.01    5.35   -12.26
MADISONVILLE    0.18    2.58    0.21    0.70    3.67   -11.90
WASH ST PARK    0.73    4.69    0.00    1.17    6.59    -8.33

HUNTSVILLE IS OVER 20 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE YEAR AND
MADISONVILLE IS ALMOST 15 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR 2010.


                U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS


BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:

D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS
   A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING
   A WATER EMERGENCY.

D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD WATER
   SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.

D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER
   SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS OR
   WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
   WATER DEFICITS.

FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX.S OR FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUED. STOCK PONDS AND CREEKS CONTINUED TO
RECEDE. BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. RANGELAND
AND PASTURES WERE IN FAIR CONDITION...BUT BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF
STRESS. THE LACK OF SOIL MOISTURE HAS DELAYED PLANTING OF WINTER
FORAGES. LIVESTOCK WERE IN FAIR CONDITION...BUT SUPPLEMENTAL
FEEDING HAS BEGUN DUE TO THE DECLINING QUANTITY OF GRAZING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU (ALL LOWER CASE).

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
AREA RESERVOIRS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO DROP AND CAPACITY HAS FALLEN AT
ALL THE AREA RESERVOIRS EXCEPT FOR LAKE LIVINGSTON.

     WATERSHED                   CAPACITY

LAKE LIVINGSTON                100.0 PERCENT
LAKE CONROE                     92.6 PERCENT
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE             89.6 PERCENT
LAKE HOUSTON                   100.0 PERCENT
LAKE SOMERVILLE                 86.8 PERCENT
LAKE TEXANA                     86.1 PERCENT

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
GROUND FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY AND 100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE PERCENTAGES
HAVE BECOME VERY DRY AGAIN. 100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE IS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT WEST OF A BRENHAM TO HUNTSVILLE LINE AND LESS THAN 25
PERCENT WEST OF A COLUMBUS TO TRINITY LINE. 1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
IS GENERALLY GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
1000 HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WEST OF A
COLUMBUS TO HUNTSVILLE LINE. AS OF DECEMBER 2 2010...THE FIVE DAY
AVERAGE FIRE DANGER MAP SHOWED A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES HAVE INCREASED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. VALUES BETWEEN 700 AND 800 ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS. THE VALUES LISTED BELOW ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN (INCREASE)
OVER THE NEXT 14 DAYS. BELOW IS A TABLE WITH KBDI VALUES
(12/02/2010):

          600-700       500-600       400-500

          HOUSTON       POLK          HARRIS
          TRINITY       SAN JACINTO   CHAMBERS
          MADISON       LIBERTY       BRAZORIA
          WALKER        MONTGOMERY    WHARTON
          GRIMES        WALLER        MATAGORDA
          BRAZOS        FORT BEND     JACKSON
          BURLESON
          WASHINGTON
          AUSTIN


(SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/
KBDI_DAILY/ KBDICOUNTY.PNG).

RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS...
COUNTY BURN BAN DECLARATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON DECEMBER
2 2010...(HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG)...A BURN
BAN IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

AUSTIN...BRAZOS...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GRIMES...MADISON...
TRINITY...WALLER AND WASHINGTON.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY
AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGIN. PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO ISOLATED WILDFIRES SO CAMPERS...
HUNTERS AND OTHER OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WITH CAMP
FIRES AND FIREARMS. WELDERS SHOULD ALSO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE
PERFORMING THEIR DUTIES.FINALLY...MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DISCARD
LIGHTED CIGARETTES FROM THEIR VEHICLES.

OUTLOOK...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL FLATTEN AND ALLOW A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT TUESDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL AMPLIFY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL BRING COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS LEADING TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT
IS ALSO A DRY PATTERN AS A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS BRING
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION AND DON`T ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS LOOK DRY AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH DECEMBER 14 2010.

THE LONG RANGE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID DECEMBER 2 THROUGH
FEBRUARY 28 WAS UPDATED AND THIS CHART SHOWED DROUGHT CONDITIONS
INTENSIFYING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS
THAT AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER WILL SUFFER DROUGHT CONDITIONS THIS WINTER. WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ALREADY 10 TO 20 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL FOR 2010...THIS DEVELOPING DROUGHT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FIRE
DANGER ISSUES AND ADVERSELY AFFECT AGRICULTURE AND RANCHERS.

$$

CR

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