DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
740 AM CDT MON NOV 1 2010
...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SYNOPSIS...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAINFALL
HAS BEEN SCARCE AND MOST OF THE PRIMARY OR SECONDARY CLIMATE SITES
HAVE RECEIVED VERY LITTLE RAIN IN THE LAST FIVE WEEKS. THE LAST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OCCURRED ON
SEPTEMBER 21ST.
HERE ARE THE FIVE DRIEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD FOR THE FOUR PRIMARY
CLIMATE SITES:
IAH HOU CLL GLS
TRACE 1934 TRACE 1978 0.00 1952 TRACE 1952
0.01 1963 TRACE 1952 TRACE 2010 TRACE 1889
0.01 1944 0.05 1961 0.05 1948 0.03 1924
0.02 2010 0.07 2010 0.11 1924 0.05 1987
0.02 1952 0.29 1934 0.14 1921 0.05 1963
OCTOBER 2010 RANKED IN THE TOP 5 DRIEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD FOR
HOUSTON/IAH...HOUSTON/HOU...AND COLLEGE STATION. FOR
GALVESTON...OCTOBER 2010 RANKED AS THE 7TH DRIEST ON RECORD (0.11
INCH).
A STRONG LA NINA PHASE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WINTER. THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN USUALLY BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL. THIS LA NINA PHASE IS FORECAST TO BE ONE OF THE STRONGER
EVENTS ON RECORD. OTHER YEARS WITH STRONG LA NINA SIGNALS ARE 1916...
1917...1955...1975 AND 1999. BELOW ARE TABLES WITH THE RAINFALL
DURING THE WINTER MONTHS FOR THOSE LA NINA EPISODES:
HOUSTON
YEAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR YEAR
1916/17 1.05 2.31 3.68 1.29 1.56 0.65 35.85
1917/18 0.32 0.93 1.19 0.96 1.69 3.25 17.66#
1955/56 0.71 1.36 1.90 3.19 1.80 1.23 41.08
1975/76 5.62 2.08 3.61 1.39 0.38 1.53 50.97
1999/00 0.56 1.53 2.20 1.25 2.32 1.35 28.04
NORMAL 4.50 4.19 3.69 3.68 2.98 3.36
GALVESTON
YEAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR YEAR
1916/17 0.99 2.16 0.79 2.21 2.51 0.91 30.86
1917/18 1.49 0.97 1.00 0.54 1.11 1.65 21.43*
1955/56 2.68 0.51 2.41 2.44 1.87 1.14 34.09
1975/76 4.83 4.56 3.96 3.41 1.07 1.39 42.06
1999/00 3.00 1.59 5.81 1.74 1.71 1.92 33.61
NORMAL 3.49 3.64 3.53 4.08 2.61 2.76
COLLEGE STATION
YEAR OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR YEAR
1916/17 1.55 1.91 0.49 1.90 2.37 0.55 28.83
1917/18 0.22 0.93 0.24 1.87 4.51 0.50 16.66#
1955/56 0.37 0.85 1.53 3.15 3.37 1.34 25.08
1975/76 3.88 1.01 1.11 1.18 1.17 3.66 38.00
1999/00 1.58 1.09 1.54 3.14 0.91 2.57 24.62
NORMAL 4.22 3.18 3.23 3.32 2.38 2.84
# DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD
* 2ND DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD
YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1916...1917...1955...1975 AND 1999
AS OF OCTOBER 31ST 2010...RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM THE 30 YEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS EXCEEDED 12 INCHES AT GALVESTON...AND 9
INCHES AT HOUSTON HOBBY. ALL FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE YEAR.
SITE YTD RAIN 30 YEAR AVG RAIN DEPARTURE
IAH 36.97 39.96 -2.99
HOU 36.42 45.64 -9.22
GLS 24.11 36.67 -12.56
CLL 26.07 33.26 -7.19
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS BEEN SKEWED A BIT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
FOR THESE CLIMATE SITES FELL IN JUST TWO MONTHS. HOU (HOBBY)
RECEIVED 19.40 INCHES OF RAIN IN JULY AND SEPTEMBER OR 53 PERCENT OF
THE 2010 TOTAL IN JUST THOSE TWO MONTHS. CLL (COLLEGE STATION)
RECEIVED 13.05 INCHES OF RAIN IN JUNE AND SEPTEMBER OR ROUGHLY 50.1
PERCENT OF IT`S 2010 TOTAL. IAH (INTERCONTINENTAL) RECEIVED 17.73
INCHES OF RAIN IN JULY AND SEPTEMBER WHICH IS 48 PERCENT OF THE 2010
TOTAL. GALVESTON RECEIVED 38 PERCENT (9.36 INCHES) OF IT`S 2010
TOTAL IN JULY AND SEPTEMBER.
AS OF OCTOBER 26 2010...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THE BULK OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THAT AREA GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A CALDWELL TO
BRENHAM TO RICHMOND TO FREEPORT LINE...AS IN MODERATE DROUGHT OR
D-1. MOST OF THE REST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS ABNORMALLY DRY OR
D-0...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF JACKSON AND MATAGORDA
COUNTIES.
RIDGING ALOFT SHUNTED MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. THE GOOD NEWS
IS A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
ALLEVIATE THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS
BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:
D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS
A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING
A WATER EMERGENCY.
D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD WATER
SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.
D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER
SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.
D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS OR
WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.
D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
WATER DEFICITS.
FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX.S OR FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUED. STOCK PONDS AND CREEKS CONTINUED TO
RECEDE. PRODUCERS STRUGGLED TO FIND HAY TO BUY. PASTURE CONDITIONS
CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE IN FAIR CONDITION...BUT
BEGINNING TO DECLINE. IN SOME AREAS...RANCHERS WERE PLANTING WINTER
PASTURES WHILE OTHERS HELD OUT FOR RAIN. LIVESTOCK WERE IN FAIR
CONDITION...BUT WORSENING. MANY BEGAN TO FEED HAY FROM LOW
STOCKS...BUT STILL AT A MINIMAL LEVEL.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU (ALL LOWER CASE).
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
AREA RESERVOIRS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO DROP AND CAPACITY HAS FALLEN AT
ALL THE AREA RESERVOIRS EXCEPT FOR LAKE LIVINGSTON.
WATERSHED CAPACITY
LAKE LIVINGSTON 100.0 PERCENT
LAKE CONROE 92.4 PERCENT
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE 87.7 PERCENT
LAKE HOUSTON 94.9 PERCENT
LAKE SOMERVILLE 89.2 PERCENT
LAKE TEXANA 91.8 PERCENT
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
GROUND FUELS ARE DRY AND 100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE PERCENTAGES HAVE
REACHED THE EXTREMELY DRY (LESS THAN 3 PERCENT) CATEGORY TO THE EAST
OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION TO SUGAR LAND TO FREEPORT. TO THE
WEST OF THIS LINE...100 HR FUEL MOISTURE PERCENTAGES WERE IN THE
CRITICALLY DRY CATEGORY (4 TO 15 PERCENT). AS OF OCTOBER 31
2010...THE DAILY FIRE DANGER MAP SHOWED A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES HAVE INCREASED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AS THIS RECENT DRY SPELL LINGERS. CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MORE
CRITICAL WITH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. VALUES
BETWEEN 700 AND 800 ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THE VALUES
LISTED BELOW ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN (INCREASE) OVER THE NEXT 14 DAYS.
BELOW IS A TABLE WITH KBDI VALUES (10/31/2010):
700-800 600-700 500-600 400-500
SAN JACINTO BRAZOS AUSTIN GALVESTON
BURLESON BRAZORIA JACKSON
CHAMBERS COLORADO MATAGORDA
GRIMES FORT BEND WHARTON
HARRIS
HOUSTON
LIBERTY
MADISON
MONTGOMERY
POLK
TRINITY
WALKER
WALLER
WASHINGTON
(SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/
KBDI_DAILY/ KBDICOUNTY.PNG).
RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS...
COUNTY BURN BAN DECLARATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON OCTOBER 30
2010...(HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG)...A BURN BAN IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
AUSTIN...CHAMBERS...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALLER...WALKER...
AND WASHINGTON.
RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY
AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGIN. PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO ISOLATED WILDFIRES SO CAMPERS...
HUNTERS AND OTHER OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WITH CAMP
FIRES AND FIREARMS. WELDERS SHOULD ALSO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE
PERFORMING THEIR DUTIES.FINALLY...MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DISCARD
LIGHTED CIGARETTES FROM THEIR VEHICLES.
OUTLOOK...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE AREA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE RAINFALL EXPECTED
THIS WEEK IS NOT EXPECTED TO END THE OVERALL DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THE LONG RANGE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID OCTOBER 31 THROUGH
JANUARY 31 WAS UPDATED AND THIS CHART SHOWED DROUGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OR INTENSIFYING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST
AND EAST TEXAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LAREDO TO VICTORIA TO PORT
ARTHUR LINE.
$$
MM
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