DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
746 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010

                 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

        ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAINFALL
HAS BEEN SCARCE AND NONE OF THE PRIMARY OR SECONDARY CLIMATE SITES
RECEIVED RAIN IN THE LAST SEVEN DAYS. THE LAST SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO
FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OCCURRED ON SEPTEMBER 21ST WHICH IS
ABOUT A MONTH AGO. HERE ARE THE FIVE DRIEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD FOR
THE FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES:

            IAH          HOU          CLL          GLS

        TRACE 1934   TRACE 1978    0.00 1952    TRACE 1952
         0.01 1963   TRACE 1952    0.05 1948    TRACE 1889
         0.01 1944    0.05 1961    0.11 1924     0.03 1924
         0.02 1952    0.29 1934    0.14 1921     0.05 1987
         0.03 1889    0.30 1963    0.15 1944     0.05 1963

         0.00 2010    0.00 2010    0.00 2010     0.05 2010

A STRONG LA NINA PHASE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WINTER. THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN USUALLY BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL. THIS LA NINA PHASE IS FORECAST TO BE ONE OF THE STRONGER
EVENTS ON RECORD. OTHER YEARS WITH STRONG LA NINA SIGNALS ARE 1916...
1917...1955...1975 AND 1999. BELOW ARE TABLES WITH THE RAINFALL
DURING THE WINTER MONTHS FOR THOSE LA NINA EPISODES:

                           HOUSTON

YEAR      OCT     NOV     DEC     JAN     FEB     MAR     YEAR

1916/17   1.05    2.31    3.68    1.29    1.56    0.65    35.85
1917/18   0.32    0.93    1.19    0.96    1.69    3.25    17.66#
1955/56   0.71    1.36    1.90    3.19    1.80    1.23    41.08
1975/76   5.62    2.08    3.61    1.39    0.38    1.53    50.97
1999/00   0.56    1.53    2.20    1.25    2.32    1.35    28.04

NORMAL    4.50    4.19    3.69    3.68    2.98    3.36

                            GALVESTON

YEAR      OCT     NOV     DEC     JAN     FEB     MAR     YEAR

1916/17   0.99    2.16    0.79    2.21    2.51    0.91    30.86
1917/18   1.49    0.97    1.00    0.54    1.11    1.65    21.43*
1955/56   2.68    0.51    2.41    2.44    1.87    1.14    34.09
1975/76   4.83    4.56    3.96    3.41    1.07    1.39    42.06
1999/00   3.00    1.59    5.81    1.74    1.71    1.92    33.61

NORMAL    3.49    3.64    3.53    4.08    2.61    2.76

                           COLLEGE STATION

YEAR      OCT     NOV     DEC     JAN     FEB     MAR     YEAR

1916/17   1.55    1.91    0.49    1.90    2.37    0.55    28.83
1917/18   0.22    0.93    0.24    1.87    4.51    0.50    16.66#
1955/56   0.37    0.85    1.53    3.15    3.37    1.34    25.08
1975/76   3.88    1.01    1.11    1.18    1.17    3.66    38.00
1999/00   1.58    1.09    1.54    3.14    0.91    2.57    24.62

NORMAL    4.22    3.18    3.23    3.32    2.38    2.84

# DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD
* 2ND DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD
  YEARLY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1916...1917...1955...1975 AND 1999

AS OF OCTOBER 20TH 2010...RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM THE 30 YEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS EXCEEDED 11 INCHES AT GALVESTON...OR 11.51
INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE YEAR. HOBBY AIRPORT IS NOW 7.51 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE YEAR AND COLLEGE STATION IS 5.77 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL.

SITE    YTD RAIN    30 YEAR AVG RAIN    DEPARTURE

IAH      36.95         38.41             -1.46
HOU      36.35         43.86             -7.51
GLS      24.05         35.56            -11.51
CLL      26.07         31.84             -5.77

RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION HAS BEEN SKEWED A BIT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN
FOR THESE CLIMATE SITES FELL IN JUST TWO MONTHS. HOU (HOBBY)
RECEIVED 19.40 INCHES OF RAIN IN JULY AND SEPTEMBER OR 53 PERCENT OF
THE 2010 TOTAL IN JUST THOSE TWO MONTHS. CLL (COLLEGE STATION)
RECEIVED 13.05 INCHES OF RAIN IN JUNE AND SEPTEMBER OR ROUGHLY 50.1
PERCENT OF IT`S 2010 TOTAL. IAH (INTERCONTINENTAL) RECEIVED 17.73
INCHES OF RAIN IN JULY AND SEPTEMBER WHICH IS 48 PERCENT OF THE 2010
TOTAL. GALVESTON RECEIVED 38 PERCENT (9.36 INCHES) OF IT`S 2010
TOTAL IN JULY AND SEPTEMBER.

AS OF OCTOBER 21 2010...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...GENERALLY AREAS NORTHEAST
OF A BRENHAM TO RICHMOND TO FREEPORT LINE AS ABNORMALLY DRY OR D-0.
RIDGING ALOFT SHUNTED MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES DON`T LOOK TO IMPROVE MUCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS MAY DETERIORATE
FURTHER AND COULD BE CLASSIFIED AS D-1 BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

                U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS


BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:

D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS
   A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING
   A WATER EMERGENCY.

D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD WATER
   SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.

D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER
   SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS OR
   WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
   WATER DEFICITS.


FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX.S OR FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUED. PONDS AND WATER TANKS WERE LOW AND
CONTINUED TO RECEDE. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS HAD BEGUN TO SUPPLY HAY
AND OTHER FEED TO CATTLE. WINTER PLANTING HAS BEEN PUT ON HOLD UNTIL
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN DEVELOPS. FALL GRASSES ARE DROUGHT STRESSED.
TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS LOW. SOYBEAN AND COTTON HARVESTS DREW TO A
CLOSE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU (ALL LOWER CASE).

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
RAINFALL OVER NORTH TEXAS HAS DIMINISHED AND RIVER LEVELS HAVE BEGUN TO
DROP. AREA RESERVOIRS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO DROP AND CAPACITY HAS
FALLEN BELOW 90 PERCENT AT HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE AND LAKE LIVINGSTON.
AREA RESERVOIRS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

     WATERSHED                   CAPACITY

LAKE LIVINGSTON                 89.9 PERCENT
LAKE CONROE                     93.3 PERCENT
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE             88.9 PERCENT
LAKE HOUSTON                    98.0 PERCENT
LAKE SOMERVILLE                 90.6 PERCENT
LAKE TEXANA                     94.2 PERCENT

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
GROUND FUELS ARE DRY AND 100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE PERCENTAGES WERE
LESS THAN 25 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF EAST TEXAS. AS OF OCTOBER 20
2010...THE DAILY FIRE MAP INDICATED A MODERATE RISK OVER THE MOST OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES HAVE INCREASED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AS THIS RECENT DRY SPELL LINGERS. CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MORE
CRITICAL WITH TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. VALUES
BETWEEN 700 AND 800 ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THE VALUES
LISTED BELOW ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN (INCREASE) OVER THE NEXT 14
DAYS. BELOW IS A TABLE WITH KBDI VALUES (10/20/2010):

      600-700         500-600       400-500     300-400

      BRAZOS          AUSTIN        COLORADO    JACKSON
      BURLESON        BRAZORIA      WHARTON     MATAGORDA
      WASHINGTON      CHAMBERS                  GALVESTON
      MONTGOMERY      FORT BEND
      HOUSTON         HARRIS
      MADISON         WALLER
      GRIMES
      WALKER
      SAN JACINTO
      TRINITY
      POLK
      LIBERTY



(SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/
KBDI_DAILY/ KBDICOUNTY.PNG).

RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS...
COUNTY BURN BAN DECLARATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON OCTOBER
20 2010...(HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG)...A BURN BAN
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

HOUSTON...TRINITY...SAN JACINTO...LIBERTY...CHAMBERS...WALKER...
MADISON...POLK...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND AUSTIN.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY
AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGIN. PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO ISOLATED WILDFIRES SO CAMPERS...
HUNTERS AND OTHER OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WITH CAMP
FIRES AND FIREARMS. WELDERS SHOULD ALSO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE
PERFORMING THEIR DUTIES.FINALLY...MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DISCARD
LIGHTED CIGARETTES FROM THEIR VEHICLES.

OUTLOOK...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTH TEXAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. THIS
FEATURE COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF A
BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON LINE. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. LATER NEXT WEEK...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
WITH CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF NEXT THURSDAYS
FRONT.

THE LONG RANGE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID OCTOBER 21 THROUGH
JANUARY 21 WAS UPDATED AND THIS CHART SHOWED DROUGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OR INTENSIFYING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST
AND EAST TEXAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LAREDO TO VICTORIA TO PORT
ARTHUR LINE.

$$

CR

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