DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
843 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010


                 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

               ...DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST
                       FOR ANOTHER 5 DAYS...

SYNOPSIS...
A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BROUGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINED DRY. THE
LAST WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS ON
SEPTEMBER 26. RAINFALL DEFICITS CONTINUE TO GROW...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. DESPITE SOME RECENT RAIN...THE
ASOS AT HUNTSVILLE REMAINS THE DRIEST LOCATION IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...WHILE PALACIOS REMAINS THE WETTEST LOCATION. LIVINGSTON IS
ALMOST 16 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AND CONROE IS ALMOST 13 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR. A SHORT LIVED WARM SPELL COUPLED WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS HAS INCREASED THE THREAT FOR WILD FIRES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.

HERE ARE THE YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TOTALS (INCHES) FOR SOME OF OUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS...SECONDARY CLIMATE STATIONS AND CO-OP
VOLUNTEER STATIONS:

                YEAR-TO-DATE RAINFALL (THROUGH OCT 13)

SITE            TOTAL   NORMAL   DEP

ALVIN           37.75   34.96   +2.79
ANAHUAC         37.29   43.33   -6.04
ANGLETON CO-OP  49.36   45.89   +3.47
ANGLETON ASOS   41.59
BAYTOWN         36.12   42.06   -5.94
BELLVILLE       25.25   31.60   -6.35
BRENHAM         29.30   34.17   -4.87
CLEVELAND       34.77   41.60   -6.83
COL STATION     26.07   30.86   -4.79
COLUMBUS        30.52   34.27   -4.55
CONROE CO-OP    24.59   37.41  -12.82
CONROE ASOS     25.94
CROCKETT        33.29   36.02   -2.73
DANEVANG        43.80   36.14   +7.66
FREEPORT        26.74   40.48  -13.74
GALVESTON CO-OP 32.15
GALVESTON ASOS  24.05   34.85  -10.80
HOU HEIGHTS     44.78   42.48   +2.30
HOU HOBBY APRT  36.35   42.67   -6.32
HOU BUSH APRT   36.95   37.41   -0.46
HOU WESTBURY    37.08   39.21   -2.13
HUNTSVILLE      27.39   37.05   -9.66
HUNTSVILLE ASOS 19.22
LIVINGSTON      24.16   39.99  -15.83
MADISONVILLE    23.85   33.85  -10.00
MATAGORDA       45.98   34.94  +11.04
NEW CANEY       31.88   40.74   -8.86
NWSO HGX        42.53   43.49   -0.96
PALACIOS        47.15   35.99  +11.16
RICHMOND        43.88   36.80   +7.08
SOMERVILLE      24.31   28.24   -3.93
SUGARLAND ASOS  45.96   39.18   +6.78
TOMBALL         25.07
WASH ST PARK    28.51   32.13   -3.62
WHARTON         36.78   35.40   +1.38

A STRONG LA NINA PHASE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WINTER. THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN USUALLY BRINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR MASS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. NORMAL RAINFALL IN
OCTOBER IS TYPICALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS
SOUTH OF I-10.

AS OF OCTOBER 14 2010...THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...GENERALLY AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF A WELLBORN TO NEW WAVERLY TO MONT BELVIEU TO WINNIE LINE AS
ABNORMALLY DRY OR D-0. A CLUSTER OF STORMS BROUGHT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PINEY WOODS AND PARTS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THAT AREA IS STILL VERY DRY BUT THE RECENT RAINS
HELPED MODIFY SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
HEAVIER RAIN DANCED JUST TO THE EAST LEAVING CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS VERY DRY.

                U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS


BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:

D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS
   A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING
   A WATER EMERGENCY.

D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD WATER
   SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.

D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER
   SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS OR
   WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
   WATER DEFICITS.


FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX.S OR FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUED. PONDS AND WATER TANKS WERE LOW. LIVESTOCK
PRODUCERS HAD BEGUN TO SUPPLY HAY AND OTHER FEED TO CATTLE. WINTER
PLANTING HAS BEEN PUT ON HOLD UNTIL SUBSTANTIAL RAIN DEVELOPS. FALL
GRASSES ARE DROUGHT STRESSED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU (ALL LOWER CASE).

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
RIVER LEVELS HAVE REMAINED NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE REGION AND
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAS HELPED TO
RECHARGE AREA RESERVOIRS.

     WATERSHED                   CAPACITY

LAKE LIVINGSTON                100.0 PERCENT
LAKE CONROE                     93.7 PERCENT
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE             89.6 PERCENT
LAKE HOUSTON                    98.8 PERCENT
LAKE SOMERVILLE                 91.2 PERCENT
LAKE TEXANA                     95.2 PERCENT

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
GROUND FUELS ARE DRYING QUICKLY AND 100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
PERCENTAGES WERE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF EAST TEXAS. 1000
HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE WAS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF EAST
TEXAS. AS OF OCTOBER 15 2010...THE DAILY FIRE MAP INDICATED A
MODERATE RISK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A BRENHAM TO FREEPORT LINE.

KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES HAVE INCREASED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AS THIS RECENT DRY SPELL LINGERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HELP KEEP MODERATE KBDI VALUES IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN
DAYS. VALUES BETWEEN 700 AND 800 ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS. THE VALUES LISTED BELOW ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN (INCREASE)
OVER THE NEXT 14 DAYS. BELOW IS A TABLE WITH KBDI VALUES
(10/14/2010):

      600-700         500-600       400-500     300-400     200-300

     HOUSTON          BURLESON      COLORADO    GALVESTON   MATAGORDA
     TRINITY          WASHINGTON    FORT BEND   WHARTON
     POLK             AUSTIN        BRAZORIA    JACKSON
     MADISON          WALLER
     BRAZOS           CHAMBERS
     GRIMES           HARRIS
     WALKER
     SAN JACINTO
     MONTGOMERY
     LIBERTY

(SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/
KBDI_DAILY/ KBDICOUNTY.PNG).

RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS...
COUNTY BURN BAN DECLARATIONS HAVE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST
WEEK. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON OCTOBER 15
2010...(HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG)...A BURN BAN IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

HOUSTON...TRINITY...SAN JACINTO...LIBERTY...CHAMBERS...WALKER...
MADISON...POLK...WALLER AND AUSTIN.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY
AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGIN. PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO ISOLATED WILDFIRES SO CAMPERS...
HUNTERS AND OTHER OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WITH CAMP
FIRES AND FIREARMS. WELDERS SHOULD ALSO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE
PERFORMING THEIR DUTIES.FINALLY...MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DISCARD
LIGHTED CIGARETTES FROM THEIR VEHICLES.

OUTLOOK...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS TO RETURN TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS MID WEEK BUT THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DEEPENS. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE LONG RANGE SEASONAL DROUGHT
OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED ON OCTOBER 7TH AND THIS CHART SHOWED DROUGHT
CONDITIONS INTENSIFYING OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...GENERALLY
EAST OF A MADISONVILLE TO HOUSTON TO GALVESTON LINE.

$$

CR

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