DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
530 PM CDT THU OCT 7 2010
...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...
...DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER...
SYNOPSIS...
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS BROUGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE LAST WEEK HAVE DIPPED
BELOW 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE AREA HAS BEEN WITHOUT RAIN FOR
THE LAST TEN DAYS AND WILL LIKELY GO ANOTHER FOUR DAYS WITHOUT
MEASUREABLE RAINFALL. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS VARIED
GREATLY IN 2010 WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE REGION. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS WERE GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A BRENHAM TO HOUSTON TO FREEPORT LINE. THROUGH OCTOBER 7
2010...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS
PALACIOS WITH 47.15 INCHES. THE DRIEST SPOT IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS
THE HUNTSVILLE ASOS WITH 18.64 INCHES. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE
HUNTSVILLE CO-OP SITE RECORDED 27.29 INCHES OF RAIN BUT EVEN THE
HIGHER TOTAL IS ALMOST 20 INCHES LOWER THAN THE PALACIOS TOTAL. ALSO
NOTE THE DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. PALACIOS IS OVER 12 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR WHILE LIVINGSTON IS AN EVEN 15 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR. THAT IS QUITE A DISPARITY IN RAINFALL OVER A
RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCE. GALVESTON COUNTY ALSO SHOWS QUITE AN
ANOMALY AS SCHOLES FIELD REPORTED ONLY 24 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE
YEAR...WHILE THE CO-OP SITE AT THE GALVESTON COAST GUARD STATION
(EAST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND) HAS RECEIVED OVER 32 INCHES AND THE
NWS OFFICE IN NORTHERN GALVESTON COUNTY HAS RECEIVED OVER 42 INCHES
OF RAIN FOR THE YEAR. FREEPORT AND ANGLETON SHOW A SIMILAR DISPARITY
WITH FREEPORT RECEIVING ABOUT 26 INCHES OF RAIN AND ANGLETON
RECEIVED CLOSE TO 49 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS YEAR.
HERE ARE THE YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TOTALS (INCHES) FOR SOME OF OUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS...SECONDARY CLIMATE STATIONS AND CO-OP
VOLUNTEER STATIONS:
YEAR-TO-DATE RAINFALL (THROUGH OCT 6)
SITE TOTAL NORMAL DEP
ALVIN 37.75 33.91 +3.84
ANAHUAC 36.99 42.38 -5.39
ANGLETON CO-OP 49.36 45.03 +4.33
ANGLETON ASOS 41.59
BAYTOWN 36.12 40.80 -4.68
BELLVILLE 25.25 30.78 -5.53
BRENHAM 29.30 33.14 -3.84
CLEVELAND 34.77 40.41 -5.64
COL STATION 26.07 29.88 -3.81
COLUMBUS 30.52 33.36 -3.64
CONROE CO-OP 24.59 36.36 -11.77
CONROE ASOS 25.94
CROCKETT 32.66 35.04 -2.38
DANEVANG 43.80 35.07 +8.73
FREEPORT 26.74 39.39 -12.65
GALVESTON CO-OP 32.15
GALVESTON ASOS 24.00 34.03 -10.03
HOU HEIGHTS 44.78 41.62 +3.16
HOU HOBBY APRT 36.35 41.46 -5.11
HOU BUSH APRT 36.95 36.36 +0.59
HOU WESTBURY 37.08 38.45 -1.37
HUNTSVILLE 27.29 36.10 -8.81
HUNTSVILLE ASOS 18.64
LIVINGSTON 24.15 39.15 -15.00
MADISONVILLE 23.64 32.86 -9.22
MATAGORDA 45.98 34.19 +11.79
NEW CANEY 31.88 39.70 -7.82
NWSO HGX 42.31 42.30 -0.01
PALACIOS 47.15 34.92 +12.23
RICHMOND 43.88 35.89 +7.99
SOMERVILLE 24.31 28.24 -3.93
SUGARLAND ASOS 45.96 38.27 +7.69
TOMBALL 25.07
WASH ST PARK 28.51 31.15 -2.64
WHARTON 36.78 34.40 +2.38
A STRONG LA NINA PHASE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WINTER. THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN USUALLY BRINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR MASS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THIS TIME A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE. NORMAL RAINFALL IN OCTOBER IS TYPICALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 5
INCHES WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS SOUTH OF I-10.
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS ABNORMALLY DRY. IT ALSO SHOWS THAT THE MODERATE
TO SEVERE DROUGHT OVER LOUISIANA EDGING WESTWARD AND IS NOW IMPINGING
ON THE PINEY WOODS. THE RECENT INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER EAST TEXAS. IF THE DRY AIR MASS
LINGERS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...THE
DROUGHT MONITOR WILL LIKELY EXPAND SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FURTHER
WEST. AS OF OCTOBER 7 2010...LIBERTY...SAN JACINTO..POLK AND PARTS
OF TRINITY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES WERE CLASSIFIED AS D-0 OR ABNORMALLY
DRY.
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS
BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:
D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS
A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING
A WATER EMERGENCY.
D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD WATER
SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.
D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER
SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.
D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS OR
WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.
D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
WATER DEFICITS.
FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX.S OR FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
THE REGION REMAINED DRY AND STOCK PONDS WERE RECEDING. PREPARATIONS
FOR WINTER PASTURES CONTINUED BUT MOST PRODUCERS WERE HOLDING OFF
PLANTING UNTIL RAINS RETURN. LIVESTOCK WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD
CONDITION.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU (ALL LOWER CASE).
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
RIVER LEVELS HAVE REMAINED NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE REGION AND
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAS HELPED TO
RECHARGE AREA RESERVOIRS.
WATERSHED CAPACITY
LAKE LIVINGSTON 100 PERCENT
LAKE CONROE 94.2 PERCENT
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE 90.4 PERCENT
LAKE HOUSTON 100 PERCENT
LAKE SOMERVILLE 92.1 PERCENT
LAKE TEXANA 96.6 PERCENT
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
GROUND FUELS ARE DRYING QUICKLY AND 100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
PERCENTAGES WERE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF EAST TEXAS. 1000
HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE WAS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF EAST
TEXAS. AS OF OCTOBER 7 2010...THE DAILY FIRE MAP INDICATED A
MODERATE RISK OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SUMMER ARE BECOMING A DISTANT MEMORY
AS DRY AUTUMN WEATHER CONTINUES. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES HAVE
INCREASED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THIS RECENT DRY SPELL
LINGERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP KEEP MODERATE KBDI VALUES
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN DAYS. VALUES BETWEEN 700 AND 800
ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THE VALUES LISTED BELOW ARE
EXPECTED TO WORSEN (INCREASE) OVER THE NEXT 14 DAYS. BELOW IS A
TABLE WITH KBDI VALUES (10/07/2010):
600-700 500-600 400-500 300-400 200-300
HOUSTON BRAZOS AUSTIN BRAZORIA GALVESTON
MADISON BURLESON FORT BEND COLORADO JACKSON
SAN JACINTO CHAMBERS HARRIS MATAGORDA
TRINITY GRIMES WALLER WHARTON
WALKER LIBERTY
MONTGOMERY
POLK
WASHINGTON
(SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/
KBDI_DAILY/ KBDICOUNTY.PNG).
RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS...
ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON OCTOBER 7 2010...
(HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG)...A BURN BAN IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
SAN JACINTO
RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY
AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGIN. PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO ISOLATED WILDFIRES SO CAMPERS...
HUNTERS AND OTHER OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WITH CAMP
FIRES AND FIREARMS. WELDERS SHOULD ALSO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE
PERFORMING THEIR DUTIES.FINALLY...MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DISCARD
LIGHTED CIGARETTES FROM THEIR VEHICLES.
OUTLOOK...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. IF LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT...MUCH OF THE REGION COULD
REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH OCTOBER 21ST...AND PERHAPS A BIT
LONGER. THE LONG RANGE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED ON
OCTOBER 7TH AND THIS CHART SHOWED DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTENSIFYING
OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...GENERALLY EAST OF A MADISONVILLE TO
HOUSTON TO GALVESTON LINE.
$$
CR
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