DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
530 PM CDT THU OCT 7 2010

                 ...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

               ...DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST
                   THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER...

SYNOPSIS...
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS HAS BROUGHT COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER THE LAST WEEK HAVE DIPPED
BELOW 25 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. THE AREA HAS BEEN WITHOUT RAIN FOR
THE LAST TEN DAYS AND WILL LIKELY GO ANOTHER FOUR DAYS WITHOUT
MEASUREABLE RAINFALL. RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS VARIED
GREATLY IN 2010 WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE REGION. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS WERE GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A BRENHAM TO HOUSTON TO FREEPORT LINE. THROUGH OCTOBER 7
2010...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS
PALACIOS WITH 47.15 INCHES. THE DRIEST SPOT IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS WAS
THE HUNTSVILLE ASOS WITH 18.64 INCHES. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE
HUNTSVILLE CO-OP SITE RECORDED 27.29 INCHES OF RAIN BUT EVEN THE
HIGHER TOTAL IS ALMOST 20 INCHES LOWER THAN THE PALACIOS TOTAL. ALSO
NOTE THE DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. PALACIOS IS OVER 12 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR WHILE LIVINGSTON IS AN EVEN 15 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR. THAT IS QUITE A DISPARITY IN RAINFALL OVER A
RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCE. GALVESTON COUNTY ALSO SHOWS QUITE AN
ANOMALY AS SCHOLES FIELD REPORTED ONLY 24 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE
YEAR...WHILE THE CO-OP SITE AT THE GALVESTON COAST GUARD STATION
(EAST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND) HAS RECEIVED OVER 32 INCHES AND THE
NWS OFFICE IN NORTHERN GALVESTON COUNTY HAS RECEIVED OVER 42 INCHES
OF RAIN FOR THE YEAR. FREEPORT AND ANGLETON SHOW A SIMILAR DISPARITY
WITH FREEPORT RECEIVING ABOUT 26 INCHES OF RAIN AND ANGLETON
RECEIVED CLOSE TO 49 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS YEAR.

HERE ARE THE YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL TOTALS (INCHES) FOR SOME OF OUR
PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS...SECONDARY CLIMATE STATIONS AND CO-OP
VOLUNTEER STATIONS:

                YEAR-TO-DATE RAINFALL (THROUGH OCT 6)

SITE            TOTAL   NORMAL   DEP

ALVIN           37.75   33.91   +3.84
ANAHUAC         36.99   42.38   -5.39
ANGLETON CO-OP  49.36   45.03   +4.33
ANGLETON ASOS   41.59
BAYTOWN         36.12   40.80   -4.68
BELLVILLE       25.25   30.78   -5.53
BRENHAM         29.30   33.14   -3.84
CLEVELAND       34.77   40.41   -5.64
COL STATION     26.07   29.88   -3.81
COLUMBUS        30.52   33.36   -3.64
CONROE CO-OP    24.59   36.36  -11.77
CONROE ASOS     25.94
CROCKETT        32.66   35.04   -2.38
DANEVANG        43.80   35.07   +8.73
FREEPORT        26.74   39.39  -12.65
GALVESTON CO-OP 32.15
GALVESTON ASOS  24.00   34.03  -10.03
HOU HEIGHTS     44.78   41.62   +3.16
HOU HOBBY APRT  36.35   41.46   -5.11
HOU BUSH APRT   36.95   36.36   +0.59
HOU WESTBURY    37.08   38.45   -1.37
HUNTSVILLE      27.29   36.10   -8.81
HUNTSVILLE ASOS 18.64
LIVINGSTON      24.15   39.15  -15.00
MADISONVILLE    23.64   32.86   -9.22
MATAGORDA       45.98   34.19  +11.79
NEW CANEY       31.88   39.70   -7.82
NWSO HGX        42.31   42.30   -0.01
PALACIOS        47.15   34.92  +12.23
RICHMOND        43.88   35.89   +7.99
SOMERVILLE      24.31   28.24   -3.93
SUGARLAND ASOS  45.96   38.27   +7.69
TOMBALL         25.07
WASH ST PARK    28.51   31.15   -2.64
WHARTON         36.78   34.40   +2.38

A STRONG LA NINA PHASE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WINTER. THIS TYPE OF
WEATHER PATTERN USUALLY BRINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR MASS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AT THIS TIME A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE. NORMAL RAINFALL IN OCTOBER IS TYPICALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 5
INCHES WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS SOUTH OF I-10.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS ABNORMALLY DRY. IT ALSO SHOWS THAT THE MODERATE
TO SEVERE DROUGHT OVER LOUISIANA EDGING WESTWARD AND IS NOW IMPINGING
ON THE PINEY WOODS. THE RECENT INTRUSION OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER EAST TEXAS. IF THE DRY AIR MASS
LINGERS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...THE
DROUGHT MONITOR WILL LIKELY EXPAND SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FURTHER
WEST. AS OF OCTOBER 7 2010...LIBERTY...SAN JACINTO..POLK AND PARTS
OF TRINITY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES WERE CLASSIFIED AS D-0 OR ABNORMALLY
DRY.

                U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS


BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:

D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS
   A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING
   A WATER EMERGENCY.

D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD WATER
   SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.

D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER
   SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS OR
   WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR
   WATER DEFICITS.


FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION...SEE EITHER (ALL LINKS IN LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX.S OR FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY SEE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE REGION REMAINED DRY AND STOCK PONDS WERE RECEDING. PREPARATIONS
FOR WINTER PASTURES CONTINUED BUT MOST PRODUCERS WERE HOLDING OFF
PLANTING UNTIL RAINS RETURN. LIVESTOCK WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD
CONDITION.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU (ALL LOWER CASE).

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
RIVER LEVELS HAVE REMAINED NEAR NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE REGION AND
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS HAS HELPED TO
RECHARGE AREA RESERVOIRS.

     WATERSHED                   CAPACITY

LAKE LIVINGSTON                  100 PERCENT
LAKE CONROE                     94.2 PERCENT
HOUSTON COUNTY LAKE             90.4 PERCENT
LAKE HOUSTON                     100 PERCENT
LAKE SOMERVILLE                 92.1 PERCENT
LAKE TEXANA                     96.6 PERCENT

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
GROUND FUELS ARE DRYING QUICKLY AND 100 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
PERCENTAGES WERE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF EAST TEXAS. 1000
HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE WAS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF EAST
TEXAS. AS OF OCTOBER 7 2010...THE DAILY FIRE MAP INDICATED A
MODERATE RISK OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SUMMER ARE BECOMING A DISTANT MEMORY
AS DRY AUTUMN WEATHER CONTINUES. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES HAVE
INCREASED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THIS RECENT DRY SPELL
LINGERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP KEEP MODERATE KBDI VALUES
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN DAYS. VALUES BETWEEN 700 AND 800
ARE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THE VALUES LISTED BELOW ARE
EXPECTED TO WORSEN (INCREASE) OVER THE NEXT 14 DAYS. BELOW IS A
TABLE WITH KBDI VALUES (10/07/2010):

      600-700         500-600       400-500     300-400     200-300

      HOUSTON         BRAZOS        AUSTIN      BRAZORIA    GALVESTON
      MADISON         BURLESON      FORT BEND   COLORADO    JACKSON
      SAN JACINTO     CHAMBERS      HARRIS                  MATAGORDA
      TRINITY         GRIMES        WALLER                  WHARTON
      WALKER          LIBERTY
                      MONTGOMERY
                      POLK
                      WASHINGTON

(SEE THE LINK...ALL LOWER CASE HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/
KBDI_DAILY/ KBDICOUNTY.PNG).

RESTRICTIONS/ACTIONS...
ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE ON OCTOBER 7 2010...
(HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG)...A BURN BAN IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

SAN JACINTO

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS QUICKLY
AVAILABLE IF AN UNWANTED FIRE OR SMOLDERING BEGIN. PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS WILL BECOME VULNERABLE TO ISOLATED WILDFIRES SO CAMPERS...
HUNTERS AND OTHER OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD BE CAREFUL WITH CAMP
FIRES AND FIREARMS. WELDERS SHOULD ALSO EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE
PERFORMING THEIR DUTIES.FINALLY...MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DISCARD
LIGHTED CIGARETTES FROM THEIR VEHICLES.

OUTLOOK...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BUT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. IF LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CORRECT...MUCH OF THE REGION COULD
REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH OCTOBER 21ST...AND PERHAPS A BIT
LONGER. THE LONG RANGE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED ON
OCTOBER 7TH AND THIS CHART SHOWED DROUGHT CONDITIONS INTENSIFYING
OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...GENERALLY EAST OF A MADISONVILLE TO
HOUSTON TO GALVESTON LINE.

$$

CR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.