National Weather Service River Forecast Center

Light rain will continue to fall over much of east Texas for a few more hours. The upper level shortwave trough located over southeastern Texas is expected to slide to the northeast today ending the light rains later this afternoon.

As a weak upper level ridge builds over the southern plains, drier weather will occur throughout the rest of the weekend and into Monday as a dry zonal flow pattern is established.

However, a developing closed low in the midwestern US will begin to establish a flow pattern favorable for drawing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into south and southeastern Texas by Tuesday morning. With the moisture in place, rainshowers will develop in the early afternoon and continue until late evening or early Wednesday morning. This disturbance will then rapidly move into the Gulf with storms exiting south and southeast Texas.

No other significant precipitation events are anticipated in Texas through the remainder of the forecast period.

For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches is expected over the Toledo Bend and southwestern Louisiana areas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 2.50 inches are possible over an area covering the lower Nueces River from Corpus Christi to Falcon Lake in the lower Rio Grande to Brownsville.

Current rainfall has generated some runoff in south Texas, across southeast Texas and the Texas Gulf coast with significant flooding in the lower portions of the coastal watersheds in the area.

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Yesterdays rainfall has caused the Trinity River at Dallas (DALT2) to crest this morning just at flood stage. The river is receding and will drop back within banks later today. In the middle section of the Trinity River, the Flood Wave that moved through Dallas will travel downstream and bring the Trinity River at Trinidad (TDDT2) above its action stage. Both Cedar creek Reservoir (TRNT2) and Richland Chambers (FFLT2) have increased their outflows to pass the additional water entering the lakes due to yesterdays rainfall. Higher than normal flood conditions continue on the lower Trinity River at Liberty (LBYT2). Further downstream, minor flood conditions are occurring at Moss Bluff (MBFT2). The Trinity River is receding at both locations.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding will continue on the Neches River in the Diboll (DIBT2) area for the next few days. Otherwise all other points are within the streambanks.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding has developed in the upper Sabine River basin (GNVT2,QLAT2) due to recent rainfall, however, both sites have crested and should drop below flood stage later today. With Lake Tawakoni (PNTT2) still full from recent runoff, these floodwaters will pass through the system and bring the Sabine River near Mineola (MLAT2) back above flood stage next week. Below Toledo Bend Reservoir, minor flooding will persist throughout the forecast period at the Sabine River near Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Nueces Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall has generated a wave on the Aransas River near Skidmore (SKMT2), which is cresting this morning at flood stage. Other waves have developed on Mission River (REFT2), Copano creek (RCCT2), and also along the mainstem of the Nueces below Lake Corpus Christi.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Locally heavy rainfall over the Lavaca-Navidad basin generated new rises along the river system. Higher criteria, non-flood, flows are expected at Morales (MRAT2) and Strane Park (LSNT2) on the Navidad River. West Mustang creek near Ganado (GNDT2) and the Tres Palacios River at Midfield (MTPT2) continue rising but will both remain below flood stage.

...Lower Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Locally heavy rainfall across the Lower Brazos has produced some rises across the basin and its tributaries. Davidson creek at Lyons (LYNT2) should begin to rise today and crest just above criteria.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The heavy rainfall over the last 48 hours developed a Flood Wave on Cibolo creek near Falls City (FCTT2). The river has crested overnight, has returned to its banks, and continues to fall. Minor waved have bee generated on the mainstem of the San Antonio above Cibolo creek and when combined with the Cibolo creek flow, the mainsteam at Goliad (GLIT2) will crest near flood stage early next week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Small rises are expected along the San Jacinto and San Bernard River basins, but criteria is not expected to be exceeded at this time. For the other rivers not mentioned, the rivers remain at base flow

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcfop

National Precipitation Analysis: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

CAZIER

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