National Weather Service River Forecast Center

A weak surface ridge of high pressure moving through the southeastern United States today is keeping Gulf moisture from reaching the WGRFC area. Therefore dry weather is expected to continue through today. A slight change in weather pattern will come to the region later tonight.

A developing closed low in the Central Plains is expected to establish conditions favorable for drawing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into south and possibly eastern Texas starting late tonight continuing into Tuesday. A rapidly moving weak cold front will accompany this low pressure system. With this moisture in place, rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms may develop well after midnight tonight continuing well into Tuesday as the front moves through. This cold front is expected to clear most of Texas except for the deep south by Tuesday evening. Rain may continue over deep south Texas until Wednesday morning and move out of the WGRFC area later Wednesday. Due to the speed of this storm system heavy rain is not expected.

Following this system a ridge of high pressure will begin to dominate the WGRFC area with no other significant precipitation events are anticipated in Texas through the remainder of the forecast period.

For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over deep south Texas centered on South Padre Island. Lesser amounts of MAP are forecast from northeast Texas southward through central and deep south Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over deep south Texas centered on South Padre Island. Lesser amounts of MAP are forecast from northeast Texas southward through central and deep south Texas and eastward into western Louisiana.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Light amounts of MAP are forecast to return to the lower Rio Grande valley and northeast Mexico by Saturday morning.

The rainfall amounts for this forecast period are not expected to impact those areas currently in flood, nor generate any significant runoff which would affect other basins in the WGRFC area.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Lake Tawakoni continues to spill enough water into the Sabine River that when combined with local flows downstream, the Sabine River near Mineola will return to near bankfull conditions later this week. At the lower end of the river, minor flooding will persist throughout the forecast period at the Sabine River near Deweyville (DWYT2). No significant runoff is expected from the rainfall forecast for the next five days.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The San Antonio River at Goliad (GLIT2) has crested in minor flood status and should fall below flood stage by late tonight. All other locations have fallen below criteria levels and are returning to base flow.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All sites on the Lavaca and Navidad Rivers are receding at this time. The Lavaca River near Edna (EDNT2) has fallen below flood stage this morning. The Navidad River at Strane Park will fall below criteria levelthis afternoon. All other sites in the river system will be back at base flow by Wednesday.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
In the middle section of the Trinity River, the Flood Wave that moved through Dallas will bring the Trinity River at Trinidad (TDDT2) above its action stage. Both Cedar creek Reservoir (TRNT2) and Richland Chambers (FFLT2) continue releasing water to pass the water entering the lakes due to recent rainfall. Higher than normal flood conditions continue on the lower Trinity River at Liberty (LBYT2). and at Moss Bluff (MBFT2). The Trinity River is receding at both locations and the recession will accelerate in a few days since Lake Livingston has reduced their releases.

...Lower Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Brazos River at Bryan has risen above its action stage and will remain slightly above that level for a day or two. Most locations that saw slight rises after the rain last week have fallen back to base flow except for sites downstream from Lake Limestone which is currently spilling a small quantity of water. The river sites downstream will remain below criteria, but should remain higher than normal for a few more days.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Mission River at Refugio has fallen below flood criteria and will continue to fall for the next few days. All other sites have returned to baseflow. A slight risk of additional rises over the next few days as rain forms over deep south Texas and could drift as far north as the Coastal Basins between the Rio Grande and the Nueces River.

...Neches Basin...
The Neches River near Diboll (DIBT2) fell within banks this morning and continues to fall. All other points are within the streambanks. No significant runoff is expected from the rainfall forecast for the period.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other rivers in the WGRFC area are at base flow. No rises are expected during the next few days since precipitation forecasted for the next few days is expected to remain light in nature.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcfop

National Precipitation Analysis: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

CAZIER

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