National Weather Service River Forecast Center

A low pressure system is located over the Central Plains near Kansas City this morning. This low has pushed a cold front through northern and central Texas the past several hours. The front began to interact with deeper moisture over central, southern and extreme southeast Texas, and as a result showers and isolated thunderstorms developed. This cold front is expected to clear most of Texas by Tuesday evening, with the rain continuing over deep south Texas into this evening until the front moves out of the WGRFC area. Due to the speed of this storm system heavy rain is not expected.

Following this system a secondary low pressure system is forecast to move through the midwest Tuesday night through Wednesday. This will push a second cold front through Texas Wednesday night and Thursday morning. But due to the lack of atmospheric moisture this front will pass through the area without producing rainfall. It will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air for Thanksgiving Day.

On Thursday a ridge of high pressure will begin to dominate the WGRFC area. This ridge will continue to keep significant precipitation out of the WGRFC area through Friday.

During the day Friday a weak upper air disturbance will form over southwest Texas and could produce some light showers over that region at that time. Then this disturbance will move across southern Texas Friday night into Saturday. This could produce a few light showers across southern and eastern Texas as it passes through. But a more organized storm system is forecast to develop over Colorado and New Mexico by Saturday night. This storm may produce some light precipitation over portions of New Mexico and Colorado Saturday night into Sunday morning. And, it appears that this storm will produce rain from central into northeast Texas and Louisiana on Sunday just after this five day period, followed by much colder temperatures.

For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast over deep south Texas centered on South Padre Island. Lesser amounts of MAP are forecast from northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana southward through south central and deep south Texas and eastward into southwestern Louisiana.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Light amounts of MAP are forecast to return to the Rio Grande valley of southwest Texas and northern Mexico during this period.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Light amounts of MAP are forecast over northeast Texas southward through south central, southeast and deep south Texas, as well as over the northwest two thirds of New Mexico and much of Colorado.

The rainfall amounts for this forecast period are not expected to impact those areas currently in flood, nor generate any significant runoff which would affect other basins in the WGRFC area.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Lake Tawakoni continues to spill enough water into the Sabine River that when combined with local flows downstream, the Sabine River near Mineola will return to near bankfull conditions later today and then resume a slow fall. At the lower end of the river, minor flooding will persist throughout the forecast period at the Sabine River near Deweyville (DWYT2), primarily due to controlled release from Toledo Bend. No significant runoff is expected from the rainfall forecast for the next five days.

...Lower Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Brazos River at Bryan (BBZT2) remains out of banks this morning, but the river has crested and is now falling quickly. The river in this reach will return within banks later today. Sites downstream of Lake Limestone in the Navasota River system are seeing elevated flows, but the wave in the river will be contained within the stream banks. The rainfall forecast for the period will not produce runoff sufficient to cause additional or new rises.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Trinity River at Trinidad (TDDT2) crested last evening slightly out of banks, but fell back within banks overnight. Controlled releases from reservoirs in the Basin continue, but none are increasing and many have been reduced. Reductions in release from Livingston have caused the river at Liberty to return within banks last night and at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) tomorrow. Rainfall forecast for the period will not produce runoff sufficient to generate new rises.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
All sites on the Lavaca and Navidad Rivers are receding within banks this morning and will be near base flow condition over the next day or so. Little increase is expected from the rainfall forecast for the period.

...San Antonio Basin...
The Flood Wave that moved through the San Antonio River system over the past few days has reached the lower reaches below Goliad (GLIT2) and all forecast points are within banks and will soon be at baseflow conditions. Rainfall forecast for the period will not produce new rises out of banks.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other rivers in the WGRFC area are at base flow. No rises are expected during the next few days, with only light precipitation forecast for the period.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcfop

National Precipitation Analysis: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

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