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000 AGUS74 KFWR 251701 HMDFWR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX 1101 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009 VALID NOVEMBER 25 THROUGH NOVEMBER 30 ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... A low pressure system has moved into the Great Lake states this morning. This low pushed a cold front through southern Texas the past 24 hours and produced rainfall over that region as it passed. This cold front cleared Texas last evening and the rainfall moved out over the Gulf. Following this system a secondary low pressure system is forecast to move through the midwest tonight through Thursday. This will push a second cold front through Texas later tonight and Thursday morning. But due to the lack of atmospheric moisture this front will pass through the area without producing rainfall. It will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air for Thanksgiving Day. On Thursday a ridge of high pressure will begin to dominate the WGRFC area. This ridge will continue to keep significant precipitation out of the WGRFC area through Friday. During the day Friday a weak upper air disturbance will form over southwest Texas and could produce some light showers over that region at that time. Then this disturbance will move across southern Texas Saturday. This could produce a few light showers across southern Texas as it passes through. A more organized storm system is forecast to develop over southern California by Saturday night. This storm may produce some light precipitation over portions of New Mexico and Colorado Saturday night into Sunday morning. And, this storm will progress slowly eastward and will produce rain across Texas and Louisiana on Sunday into Monday morning. The heaviest rain is forecast to occur over east Texas and western Louisiana where the atmospheric moisture will be deepest. The rain should end by Monday afternoon, followed by much colder temperatures. ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST... For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Light amounts of MAP are forecast to return to the Rio Grande valley of southwest Texas and northern Mexico during this period. For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area. Light amounts of MAP are forecast over parts of southwest Texas into deep south Texas and northeast Mexico during this period. For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast over most of the WGRFC area (except for deep south Texas). The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over extreme east and northeast Texas and western Louisiana. Lesser amounts of MAP are forecast over the remainder of the WGRFC area except for far south Texas. The rainfall amounts for this forecast period may generate minor amounts of runoff into the rivers over east Texas and western Louisiana. However, runoff which would cause significant flooding is not expected in the WGRFC area. ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION... ...Guadalupe Basin... ...Moderate Flooding... The Guadalupe River at Victoria (VICT2) began to recede yesterday afternoon and quickly dropped out of moderate flood level, and minor flooding is ending this morning. The river will return within banks by Thursday morning. The Guadalupe River near Bloomington (DUPT2) is at crest today near major flood level and will show little change over the next couple of days. The recession will become more pronounced going into the weekend and moderate flooding will end Saturday or so. Rainfall forecast for the period is not expected to produce significantly rises in this system. ...Sabine Basin... ...Minor Flooding... Minor flooding will persist throughout the forecast period at the Sabine River near Deweyville (DWYT2), primarily due to controlled release from Toledo Bend. Moderate rainfall is expected over the Basin at the end of the period, but only isolated out of bank to minor flooding is expected to result. ...Lavaca-Navidad Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... Rainfall in parts of the Mustang creek drainage caused rises at Ganado (GNDT2) and Louise (LMCT2), but only Ganado exceeded bankfull; the stream will drop within banks this afternoon. Only minor rises are expected to result from rainfall forecast for the late period. ...Trinity Basin... ...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts... The Trinity River has about returned to base flows. Moss Bluff (MBFT2) on the lower Trinity has receded and should be within banks today and will continue to fall. Controlled releases from reservoirs in the Basin continue, but none are increasing and many have been reduced. Rainfall forecast for the period will not produce runoff sufficient to generate new rises. ...Lower Brazos Basin... The Brazos River at Bryan (BBZT2) as receded and is now within banks. Future rainfall is not expected to generate new rises or forecasts. ...Remainder of WGRFC Basins... All other rivers in the WGRFC area are at or near base flow. No significant rises are expected during the next few days, with only moderate precipitation forecast for the period. ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION... The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service, NOAA, and private sector entities. For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcfop National Precipitation Analysis: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcqpfpage The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml STORY $$
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