An upper level disturbance caused heavy rainfall to occur overnight last night along the Rio Grande near Boquillas and the Dry Devils which caused minor rises.

A persistant mid level low pressure system remained over northern Mexico today bringing scattered precipitation to western Texas, northern Mexico, and southern New Mexico. Abundant moisture in place over the region is resulting in localized heavy rainfall in the stronger thunderstorms that develop over western portions of the WGRFC region.

This weekend, the Mexican low pressure system is forecast to drift northward around the western periphery of a high pressure system forecast to strengthen over the eastern United States. As a result, heavier rainfall will spread northward across far western Texas and much of New Mexico this weekend and into the first of next week.

Tropical Storm Gustav was currently located near the western coast of Jamaica late this morning. Gustav is forecast to strengthen into a major Hurricane as it moves across the northwest Caribbean this weekend. By the first of next week, Gustav is forecast to turn more northward and move into the central Gulf of Mexico. There remain divergent solutions in computer models as to the eventual track and strength of Gustav, and WGRFC will monitor the situation closely for potential impacts along the Texas coast.

For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 1.00 inch to less than 1.50 inches are forecast for west Texas near the Big Bend region. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch to less than 1.00 inch surrounding this area expected to extend south along the Rio Grande to near Brownsvile.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch to less than 0.50 inch are forecast from southern New Mexico to near Abiliene, and along the lower Rio Grand from Presidio to Brownsville.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch to 0.50 inch are forecast for the western New Mexico.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 inch to 3.00 inches are forecast for southeast Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch to less than 1.00 inch are forecast from the DFW metroplex to south to College Station. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch to less than 0.50 inch are forecast for southern Colorado, New Mexico, and west Texas.

The rainfall forecast over the next five days has the potential for generating runoff along the Mexican tributaries of the Rio Grande. The probability of the runoff being sufficient enough to produce significant river flooding is low, however, minor river rises are likely over the next several days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Locally heavy rainfall earlier in August resulted in above baseflow conditions across most of the WGRFC area. However, all rivers, with the exception of the Rio Grande, are trending toward baseflow conditions. Rainfall forecast early next week could impact Southeast Texas and generate river flooding. We will continue this area and will update as needed. Otherwise, forecast rainfall does not pose significant river threats for the remainder of the WGRFC region.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/fop/wgrfcfop.html

MPE Precipitation Estimates: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/precip/html/mpe_estimates.shtml

National Precipitation Analysis: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/hydromet/qpf/qpfpage.html

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

ORR

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