National Weather Service River Forecast Center

An upper level trough of low pressure over West Texas has helped scattered showers and thunderstorms spread from Deep South Texas to the Texas/Louisiana border. This feature will gradually move east over the next few days, forcing the focus for precipitation east. The movement will be slow, thus significant changes in the WGRFC weather pattern will be slow to unfold.

By Tuesday, most of the area will be in a northerly flow, leaving clearing skies and no precipitation. The airmass over the Central Plains is very mild for this time of year, and cooler air is not expected in this pattern.

All in all, a mild weather pattern for the forecast period.

For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the Middle and Upper Texas Coast. Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the remainder of southern third of Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for the Middle and Upper Texas Coast.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Some minor runoff is expected through Monday over Southeast Texas due to the wet soil moisture conditions and forecast rainfall. Based on current rainfall forecasts, significant runoff is not expected. Elsewhere over the region, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.

...Trinity Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Releases are currently being made from flood control reservoirs located across the Trinity River Basin. These reservoirs include Benbrook, Joe Pool, Ray Roberts, Lewisville, Grapevine, Lavon, Bardwell, and Navarro Mills. Releases are also being made from non-flood control reservoirs. These reservoirs include Ray Hubbard, Cedar creek, Richland Chambers, and Livingston. Releases from these projects are impacting parts of the Trinity River and its tributaries. For the upper Trinity, higher than normal flow levels are occurring at Carrollton on the Elm Fork Trinity tributary which is currently above action stage. For the middle Trinity, forecasts have been issued for Trinidad, Long Lake, and Crockett. Trinidad is above action stage, Long Lake is at minor flood conditions, and Crockett is at higher than normal levels. For the lower Trinity, higher than normal flows are occurring at Romayor; moderate flood conditions are impacting Liberty; and minor flood levels are occurring at Moss Bluff.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues along the upper Neches/Angelina River systems including Attoyac Bayou. Minor flooding will persist for the Neches River from Neches (NCST2) to Diboll (DIBT2). Attoyac Bayou (ATBT2) will continue a slow fall throughout the week and drop below flood stage overnight. The Neches near Town Bluff (TBFT2) below Steinhagen Lake will stay near minor flood stage of 64 feet based on current lake release information. Higher flows will continue for the reach along the Neches River downstream from Steinhagen Reservoir. The Neches River at Beaumont will peak out near minor flood stage over the next few days with during tidal fluctuations.

...Lower Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Minor flooding continues on the Lower Brazos River. Higher than normal flows will continue at the locations of Bryan (BBZT2), Hempstead (HPDT2) and Richmond (RMOT2). Hempstead will drop below forecast criteria levels this afternoon, and Richmond should drop below by the end of the week. Bryan is expected to remain with higher flows through the period.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers not mentioned above have returned to base flow. No rainfall is expected over the next 5 days that would create additional rises.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS pages from the local NWS offices at: http://www.weather.gov/rivers_tab.php

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcfop

National Precipitation Analysis: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml

WALLER

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