Drought Information

 

Winter Outlook Favors Above Normal Precipitation for Texas

 Winter Precipitation Outlook

 

El Niño conditions are expected to persist throughout the upcoming winter, which will enhance the chances for greater than normal precipitation.

 


With the drought now in its 5th year, rainfall during the upcoming cold season
will be crucial for the region's reservoirs.

 

The passage of Tropical Storm Hermine (September 7-8, 2010) marked the unofficial beginning of our current drought, which is now over 4 years in duration.

Although the agricultural drought has seen occasional reprieves, the hydrologic drought has steadily worsened across much of the region.  At 29 feet below conservation, Hubbard Creek Reservoir is less than 15% full.  Also in the Brazos basin is Lake Palo Pinto, which is at only 12% of its conservation volume.  Lake Nocona and Lake Ray Hubbard both fell to all-time record low levels, but October rainfall halted their declines.  Some reservoirs have benefited from recent rainfall, but the vast majority have lost water in recent months.

The worst drought conditions are impacting the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex and areas to the west.  Conditions range from abnormally dry (D0) in Central and East Texas to exceptional drought (D4) from the Metroplex westward to the Possum Kingdom area.  On September 24, Possum Kingdom Lake bottomed out at 983.74 feet above sea level, its lowest level since 1971.

The equatorial Pacific warmed rapidly during late spring and early summer, but this warming suddenly lost its momentum during July.  Sea surface temperatures have begun warming again in recent weeks, and El Niño conditions are expected to take hold during the coming months.  As a result, long range outlooks for late 2014 and early 2015 favor above normal precipitation, which could ease drought conditions across the region.

  


Current Drought Conditions

  

U.S. Drought Monitor

U.S. Drought Monitor - Texas

U.S. Drought Monitor - North and Central Texas

 


Fire Danger

  

In many areas, warm season rainfall was been beneficial at times.  While this has reduced fire weather concerns, it has also resulted in growth that could serve as fuel for wildfires during the upcoming cold season.  Where warm season rainfall was insufficient, vegetation remains stressed and could be conducive to fire initiation and spread throughout autumn, particularly on days with strong winds and low humidity.

Climatologically, fall is a wet season between the drier summer and winter.  The vegetative growth that typically results from autumn rainfall helps to maintain minimal fire weather concerns well beyond a rain event.  The primary fire season for North and Central Texas generally does not begin until after the first killing freeze.  Freezing temperatures send warm season vegetation into dormancy.  As this vegetation dries out, it can serve as fuel for wildfires throughout the cold season.

Even though significant fire weather concerns are not anticipated this fall, it is still important to be vigilant about fire usage even if a formal burn ban is not in effect for your area.  Many outdoor activities (such as grilling) involve a risk of starting wildfires.  The National Fire Protection Association estimates that 4200 outdoor fires and another 1500 structure fires result from charcoal grills, causing $30 million in property damage annually.  Avoid open flames near dry vegetation, and assure all coals and embers are fully extinguished.

 

Texas Outdoor Burn Bans

Keetch-Byram Drought Index

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index is a drought statistic specifically designed to assess fire danger.

 


Agricultural Impacts

 

Texas Crop Condition and Progress Report
audio clip of report

U.S. Agriculture in Drought

 


Precipitation Deficits

 

September rainfall totals exceeded 5 inches along a portion of the Texas/Oklahoma border and in parts of Central Texas.  But for many areas in and near the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, monthly totals were well below normal.  September was the driest on record for Dallas/Fort Worth, with only 0.06" recorded at DFW Airport.

 

Estimated Precipitation Totals for September 2014

Estimated Precipitation Totals for September 2014

 

Throughout much of the region, year-to-date precipitation totals are below normal.  For some locations, 2014 is among the driest years on record (through the end of September).  Deficits over the last 4 years vary widely but exceed 40 inches in many areas.

 

Year-to-Date Departures from Normal Precipitation

Departure from Normal Precipitation (January 1 - September 30, 2014)

 

 

Airport Sites

  September 2014 Year-to-Date
(January - September 2014)
October 2010 - September 2014
  observed
amount
departure
from normal
departure
from normal
percent
of normal
departure
from normal
percent
of normal
DFW Airport 0.06 -2.49 -10.69 60 -37.34 74
Waco 1.28 -1.78 -3.36 87 -16.23 88
Dallas Love Field 0.11 -2.73 -11.66 57 -36.17 76
Fort Worth Meacham 0.91 -1.31 -14.00 47 -44.09 69
Dallas Executive 0.81 -2.05 -14.35 52 -48.78 70
Fort Worth Alliance 0.07 -2.89 -12.35 56 -43.61 71
Arlington 0.20 -3.56 -15.47 45 -43.27 72
Denton 0.22 -2.61 -10.26 64 -46.34 70
McKinney 0.27 -2.85 -13.36 54 -50.91 68
Terrell 0.66 -2.25 -13.25 55 -46.64 72
Corsicana 0.36 -2.27 -6.58 77 -27.96 83
Mineral Wells 0.04 -2.78 -8.61 65 -36.45 72

 

Cooperative Observers

  September 2014 Year-to-Date
(January - September 2014)
October 2010 - September 2014
  observed
amount
departure
from normal
departure
from normal
percent
of normal
departure
from normal
percent
of normal
Alvarado 0.30 -2.95 -10.29 63 -40.49 73
Alvord 0.68 -2.74 -9.56 66 -41.84 72
Aquilla 2.75 -0.20 -6.32 77 -22.26 85
Arlington 1.76 -1.41 -13.52 54 not available
Athens 0.14 -2.42 -9.69 68 -29.33 83
Bardwell Dam 0.73 -2.40 -6.85 76 -30.38 80
Benbrook Dam 1.05 -2.21 -12.14 54 -41.43 71
Bonham 4.07 +0.66 -9.95 71 not available
Bonita 2.96 -0.61 -7.49 73 -35.52 76
Breckenridge 0.05 -2.15 -14.29 38 -35.71 70
Bridgeport 1.29 -1.77 -5.70 79 -36.38 74
Burleson 0.11 -3.11 -9.29 66 -42.05 72
Centerville 4.12 +1.33 -0.11 100 -27.50 84
Cleburne 0.05 -3.10 -7.99 71 -43.97 71
Comanche 0.65 -2.24 -10.87 56 -23.83 81
Cooper 1.00 -1.92 -5.25 84 -29.61 83
Corsicana 0.54 -2.42 -2.51 91 -12.86 92
Cranfills Gap 1.22 -1.58 -9.56 64 -38.46 71
Crawford 1.64 -1.26 -3.28 87 -31.26 78
Cresson 0.93 -2.01 -5.77 78 -30.44 78
  September 2014 Year-to-Date
(January - September 2014)
October 2010 - September 2014
  observed
amount
departure
from normal
departure
from normal
percent
of normal
departure
from normal
percent
of normal
Decatur 1.46 -2.18 -5.55 82 -39.86 75
Denton 0.36 -2.73 -6.46 77 -39.49 74
Ferris 0.91 -1.64 -10.88 62 -44.64 72
Fort Worth NWS 2.23 -0.13 -10.85 60 -47.20 69
Frisco 0.26 -2.56 -10.04 67 -41.15 75
Gainesville 1.32 -2.70 -7.58 76 -34.77 80
Goldthwaite 1.47 -1.13 -6.26 74 -31.76 74
Graham 0.28 -3.09 -11.50 53 -37.93 70
Grapevine Dam 0.13 -3.24 -11.72 59 -35.07 77
Greenville 1.13 -2.21 -5.18 84 -39.95 78
Hillsboro 1.89 -1.14 -10.11 64 -40.94 73
Itasca 1.97 -1.98 -4.56 85 -41.02 75
Jacksboro 0.47 -2.29 -10.01 61 -35.75 73
Joe Pool Lake 0.38 -2.95 -13.59 55 -48.09 71
Justin 0.03 -3.24 -10.96 63 -40.90 74
Lake Bridgeport 0.91 -2.32 -14.36 48 -40.57 72
Lake Tawakoni 0.73 -2.20 -10.00 68 -44.16 75
Lavon Dam 0.29 -2.88 -10.50 64 -40.56 75
Marlin 1.70 -1.07 -6.00 79 -27.50 82
Maypearl 2.32 -0.94 -7.30 75 -38.96 75
  September 2014 Year-to-Date
(January - September 2014)
October 2010 - September 2014
  observed
amount
departure
from normal
departure
from normal
percent
of normal
departure
from normal
percent
of normal
Midlothian 0.26 -3.10 -10.74 64 -64.24 68
Muenster 0.97 -2.89 -8.34 71 -30.25 80
Navarro Mills Dam 1.39 -1.67 -6.23 78 -22.49 86
Palestine 1.44 -1.77 -0.96 97 not available
Paris 4.61 +0.77 -3.83 88 -41.57 78
Proctor Dam 3.74 +0.72 -9.43 63 -31.17 76
Rainbow 0.36 -2.52 -2.42 90 -17.36 86
Roanoke 0.06 -2.94 -10.25 66 -46.31 71
Rosser 3.04 +0.09 -4.35 85 -30.03 81
Sherman 3.36 -0.23 -10.99 65 -41.29 76
Stephenville 0.66 -2.36 -8.58 65 -21.78 83
Stillhouse Hollow 4.00 -0.30 -6.93 75 -37.49 75
Terrell 2.60 -0.26 -5.60 81 -40.89 76
Thorndale 3.10 +0.73 -4.67 71 -29.81 79
Thornton 1.92 -0.64 -7.87 62 -18.41 88
Waco Dam 1.00 -2.17 -5.00 81 -22.85 84
Weatherford 0.42 -2.68 -13.33 49 -41.38 71
Whitney Dam 0.89 -2.39 -3.61 87 -27.02 81
Wills Point 0.90 -2.33 -7.11 77 -32.87 81
  observed
amount
departure
from normal
departure
from normal
percent
of normal
departure
from normal
percent
of normal
  September 2014 Year-to-Date
(January - September 2014)
October 2010 - September 2014

  


Lake Levels

 

Most reservoirs across the region lost water during the warm season, but there were several notable exceptions.

  • The heavy rain events from Denton to Gainesville this summer were in the watersheds of Lake Ray Roberts and Lake Lewisville, both of which gained around 3 feet over the course of the summer.  Despite the gains, both reservoirs remained several feet below conservation.  Since their peaks in early August, both lakes have lost much of their gains. 
  • Lake Grapevine gained a foot during the summer but is now near its lowest level since 2007.
  • Lake Granbury, Lake Pat Cleburne, Lake Whitney, and Aquilla Lake all benefited from the June deluge, but all remain below conservation levels.
  • Lake Bridgeport made some modest gains this summer but is currently over 23 feet below conservation.

Among the reservoirs that are struggling the most, a handful have set record low levels this year.

  • The level at Lake Granbury hit an all-time low on June 22 before a deluge in its watershed raised the level by more than 6 feet in just 2 days.  However, the lake has been in steady decline since the beginning of July and is currently down 5 feet from its post-deluge peak.
  • Lake Nocona (Montague County) and Lake Ray Hubbard (a water supply reservoir for the city of Dallas) recently reached all-time record low levels, but October rainfall has stopped their declines.
  • Possum Kingdom Lake is near its lowest level since 1971.

   

Record Low Lake Levels Set in 2014

 

new record low set this year

record low before the current drought

year dam was completed

Lake Granbury

681.48 on June 22

685.28 in August 1978

1969

Lake Nocona

813.61 on October 10

816.95 in October 2000

1960

Lake Ray Hubbard

425.32 on October 6

429.72 in October 2000

1969

 

For current lake level information (including pool height, departure from conservation pool height, and percent of conservation volume), visit Water Data for Texas.

  

Water Restrictions

 

After five years of quarantine, water from Lake Texoma is available once again, following the completion of a new pipeline.  The North Texas Municipal Water District (NTMWD) recommended that its member cities allow for weekly landscape watering during September and October.  The NTMWD serves 1.6 million customers east and northeast of the city of Dallas.

Earlier this year, the Fort Worth City Council made permanent its twice-per-week limit on landscape watering.  Only hand watering is allowed between 10 am and 6 pm.  Arlington, also within the Tarrant Regional Water District (TRWD) service area, has similar restrictions but is not ready to make them permanent.  Dallas will continue its twice-per-week limit, as well as the daytime restriction on traditional sprinklers, through the end of October.  Since water restrictions vary considerably throughout the Metroplex, residents should keep informed with the current guidelines from their municipality or water utility provider.

Voluntary conservation continues for both Waco and Temple/Killeen.  However, water restrictions remain in effect for some communities within McLennan County and Bell County.

The Brazos River Authority (BRA) is asking customers within the Upper Brazos Basin, as well as areas as far downstream as Whitney, to reduce usage by 10%.

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) maintains a list of water restrictions across the state.

 


Outlooks

  

Precipitation Outlook for November

Precipitation Outlook for November

 

These outlooks present the likelihood of receiving a precipitation total that differs significantly from normal.  Green areas denote parts of the country with an increased chance of being in the wettest tercile, or the wettest third of historical data.  Similarly, brown areas denote parts of the country that are projected to have an elevated chance of being in the driest tercile.  Where neither color is shaded, there is no strong signal to determine an accentuated chance of being in either the driest or wettest tercile.  This does not mean that near normal precipitation is expected, but simply that the period is just as likely to be in the wettest tercile as it is to be in the driest tercile.

The threshold for El Niño conditions was met during June, but sea surface temperatures in portions of the central Pacific returned to normal the following month.  Warming ensued during August, and the El Niño threshold was exceeded again during September.  Although El Niño conditions have been slow to take hold in the equatorial Pacific, an El Niño event is still expected during the upcoming cold season.  An El Niño Watch remains in effect, but the likelihood of a moderate or strong El Niño has diminished considerably.  Nonetheless, long range outlooks still favor above normal precipitation for the Lone Star State the next several months.

 

3-Month Precipitation Outlooks

Long Range Precipitation Outlooks

 

The precipitation outlooks above show enhanced chances for above normal precipitation throughout the upcoming cold season.  This is consistent with El Niño conditions.  As a result, the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook projects some easing of drought conditions across North and Central Texas.

 

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

 


 Drought Links

 

 National Integrated Drought Information System

 National Drought Mitigation Center

  Drought Impact Reporter

  Precipitation Estimates

 

 


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