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Area Forecast Discussion

107
FXUS62 KFFC 230150 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
BULK OF PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH JUST A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS LEFT ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN PRECIP
BUT ALSO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE CWA. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR DATA THAT
SHOW SCT TO BKN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 304 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/
COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AT AFD TIME...AND CAN BE
SEEN FAIRLY WELL ON RADAR WITH THE CHANGE IN DENSITY OF THE AIRMASS.
QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHEAST. CAPE VALUES ARE
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT OF THE STORMS CURRENTLY ARE LOCATED. VERY STRONG AND
SHARP SHORTWAVE WITH IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX DIGGING AND SWINGING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH 500MB TEMPS PRETTY COOL
/-14C/ SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND OF COURSE POSSIBILITY
OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MIDLEVEL LOW IS PROGGED
TO CUT OFF OVERNIGHT OVER THE CAROLINAS WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THOSE EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT...SO
HAVE A SLOW IMPROVING TREND OVERNIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHERWISE A NICE AND MUCH COOLER NIGHT IN STORE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DEEP-LAYER CAA IN PLACE AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE
SHORT TERM. CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS AND LOW
POPS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY UPPER 70S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTH TOMORROW AND MOST EVERYWHERE IN THE
50S TOMORROW NIGHT EXCEPT AGAIN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.

TDP

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 304 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...AND THEN BEGIN SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WILL HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING NORTHWARD BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...HELPING
TO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE GFS REMAINING DRY THE LONGEST.
TYPICALLY...MODELS ARE TOO SLOW WITH PRODUCING PRECIP WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO WILL TREND TOWARDS THE MODELS WITH THE HIGHER
POPS.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 750 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014/
BOUNDARY THAT WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE ATL SITES HAS SLOWED AND IS
WEAKENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL MAKE IT THERE SO
THAT APPEARS TO NO LONGER BE A FACTOR IN THE WINDS. DESPITE
THAT...WINDS SHOULD STILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING. OVERALL THINK IT WILL BE IN THE
03-06Z TIME PERIOD. MAY SEE LOW CIGS LINGER AROUND OVERNIGHT IN
THE MCN AREA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          56  78  54  75 /   5   0   0   5
ATLANTA         57  78  55  76 /   5   0   0   5
BLAIRSVILLE     49  75  49  75 /   5   0   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   5
COLUMBUS        60  81  59  78 /   5   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     56  77  54  74 /   5   0   0   5
MACON           60  80  56  77 /  10   5   0  20
ROME            51  79  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  53  78  53  77 /   5   0   0   0
VIDALIA         65  80  61  79 /  60  20  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11





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