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Area Forecast Discussion

146
FXUS62 KFFC 011936
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
236 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH A
COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVING INTO WESTERN GA. THE ATMOS HAS
MOISTENED UP ENOUGH THAT RAIN HAS BEGUN TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.

MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20...WITH AMOUNTS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. A 40 TO 50 KT JET IS NOTED AT 850MB. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX THESE WINDS
DOWN...POSSIBLY CREATING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN IF THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS VERY SMALL...GUSTY
WINDS WITHIN SHOWERS MAY DOWN TREES WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED.

MODELS HAVE LINGERED THE POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WILL GIVE THE COLD AIR ALOFT A LITTLE
TIME TO CATCH UP TO THE MOISTURE...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN GA. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS MOST LIKELY AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2200 FEET. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND EXPOSED ITEMS SUCH AS
DECKS. AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...IF ROAD TEMPS DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING...SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO
THE SNOW...PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE WHERE MOISTURE LINGERS ON
THE ROADWAYS AND AIR TEMPS DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. ELEVATED ROADWAYS
SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY CULPRITS FOR
BLACK ICE DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE THE LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY BLACK
ICE HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES DURING THE
MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR FAR NORTH GA.

ONE LAST NOTE ABOUT THE SNOW...A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN METRO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. FLURRIES
DO NOT ACCUMULATE...AND THE SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS COULD CAUSE
SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...DOWNED TREES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SOILS ARE
SATURATED.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SHORT LIVED AND BEGINS
MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY...AND
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE CURRENT THINKING OF PUSHING THE POPS BACK
TO WED NIGHT INTO THU. ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FLIP-
FLOP SO HAVE TRIED TO AVOID SIDING WITH ONE MODEL OR THE
OTHER...AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF AN OVERALL BLEND. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
WINTRY PRECIP AS MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE. FOR
NOW...THURSDAY MORNING CHANCES LOOK TO BE ISOLATED TO THE NORTH
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...WHILE FRIDAY MORNING CHANCES EXTEND A WINTRY
MIX INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL VERY HIGH AND EXPECT THIS FORECAST TO CHANGE SOMEWHAT AS MID
WEEK APPROACHES.

31/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR VALUES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE IMPACTED BY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. A FROPA IS ANTICIPATED
TOMORROW WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25KT.
ALSO...A FEW FLURRIES MAY MIX WITH RAINFALL JUST BEFORE CLEARING.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAF YET.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  47  27  51 / 100  80   0   0
ATLANTA         40  43  27  50 / 100  60   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     37  38  22  46 / 100  90   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    39  41  25  49 / 100  60   0   0
COLUMBUS        47  49  29  54 / 100  60   0   0
GAINESVILLE     39  43  27  49 / 100  80   0   0
MACON           51  54  27  53 / 100  70   0   0
ROME            38  40  25  49 / 100  60   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  43  45  26  51 / 100  60   0   0
VIDALIA         55  59  31  54 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...
WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA



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