« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » FFC Area Forecast Discussion

Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KFFC 270602 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Have largely removed anything but slight chance POPs from the
grids through the overnight period as convection has shut off with
the loss of daytime heating. Short term models still ramping up
convection again between 17-18Z Monday. Overnight winds will be
light and variable and may not fully transition back to the east
before switching to the W-SW Monday morning. Areas of fog may be
an issue overnight and early Monday with the residual low level
moisture from the evening convective activity. Have introduced
patchy fog in the WX grids through 14z. No other revisions to the
forecast are expected at this time.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 742 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Latest surface analysis continues to show a wedge of high pressure
nosing in from the east... resulting in wedge frontal boundary that
stretches from near Savannah to just east of Columbus and then
northward near the AL/GA state line. Regional radars show scattered
to numerous convection across much of north and west central GA that
developed along the wedge boundary earlier... and has propagated
east and south along their own outflow boundaries. This convection
will bring much needed rain to many areas as hires convective models
show this cluster currently spreading across the Atlanta metro area
continuing to propagate south and southeast through late afternoon
and early to mid evening before dissipating with loss of daytime
heating. This convection should push south of the Atlanta metro by
early evening. The main storm threats will be occasional cloud to
ground lightning and locally heavy rain with 1.9+ pws in place with
very slow storm movement. Wind gusts to 40 mph and occasional pea
sized hail are also possible. Although a strong to severe storm
cannot be ruled out... expect the greater strong/severe threat to be
generally west and south of the forecast area... which is west and
south of the wedge front.

Short range models show the wedge front backing up as a warm front
and dissipating early on Monday while a cold front pushes into the
TN valley by late Monday afternoon. This coupled with an active NW
flow aloft should spread scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms into much of north GA Monday afternoon and Monday
evening. SPC shows a Marginal Risk area in eastern TN on Monday...
and this looks reasonable. However... just cannot rule out a few
strong to severe storms pushing into far north GA late Monday
afternoon during max heating... so stay tuned. Scattered convection
should also push into parts of Central GA late Monday and could
persist into Monday night... but nothing severe is expected there at
this time.

Otherwise... stayed with persistence for lows... while increasing
clouds and rain chances may be a bit too late on Monday to help hold
highs out of the 90s Monday afternoon. Went with a mav and met blend
through the period for temps... and increased pops across the north
above guidance numbers.


LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Main forecast challenge in the long term period is again chance
for diurnal convection. Medium range models in fair agreement and
still want to push front into north Georgia Wed/Thur...but mainly
only seeing drier air and little change in sfc temps. Again
concerned that fronts even in this pattern this time of year do
not push as far south as models indicate. Trend from 12z runs this
time yesterday is about the same that said.

With the front somewhere in the vicinity of cwa through the long
term period...should see scattered diurnal convection each day
with higher coverage and stronger intensity over middle Georgia.
Vertical wind shear in this region somewhat weak compared to north
Georgia and TN Valley.


/Issued 408 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016/...The long term begins with
the upper ridge dominating the southeast...but gradually being
pushed to the south and west as a broad trough deepens into the OH
Valley. This should push a surface front into central GA through
the middle of the week. Looks like best pops should be in the
vicinity of the front Tuesday and have included likely for a
portion of central GA during the afternoon. GFS and ECMWF show
some drying into north GA Wednesday through Thursday...so have
removed pops for a portion of the northwest for that time.
Moisture should increase back across the forecast area through the
weekend as the surface front becomes more diffuse...so chance or
slight chance looks reasonable for the Friday and Saturday.



06Z Update...

In general...VFR conditions are expected to predominate through the
majority of this forecast period. Will see localized to scattered
areas of MVFR or lower visibilities developing and persisting
through 14Z. TAF sites where this is forecast are KAHN...KMCN...KRYY
and KFTY. Scattered convection is expected to develop once again...
mainly between 16Z and 04Z. Airmass nature of these storms leaves a
wide window for possible impacts at the TAF sites...however the best
chances appear to be in the 19Z-00Z time frame. Winds have become
light and variable...06kts or less...but will increase into the 6-
10kt range and become generally southwesterly between 12Z and 15Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...




Athens          73  92  72  87 /  20  50  50  50
Atlanta         73  91  73  88 /  30  50  40  50
Blairsville     69  86  67  84 /  30  60  60  40
Cartersville    72  91  70  86 /  30  60  50  40
Columbus        72  94  75  90 /  60  40  40  60
Gainesville     72  90  72  84 /  30  50  50  50
Macon           72  94  73  92 /  40  30  30  70
Rome            71  91  72  88 /  30  70  50  30
Peachtree City  71  92  72  88 /  40  50  40  50
Vidalia         73  94  74  93 /  30  20  20  50




LONG TERM....NListemaa

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.