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Area Forecast Discussion

110
FXUS62 KFFC 011138
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
ATL AREA SITES IMPACTED THIS MORNING BY HIGH-IFR/LOW-MVFR CIGS.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT BY MID MORNING. VFR GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF TS
BETWEEN 19-00Z. W-WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...PARTICULARLY IN/NEAR CONVECTION. STORMS LOOK TO PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...AND
AWAY FROM TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  60  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...31



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