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Area Forecast Discussion

605
FXUS62 KFFC 051602
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1102 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.LATE MORNING UPDATE...
REGIONAL OBS SHOW THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO THE NW BEING BLOCKED BY A
RIDGELINE THAT RUNS FROM NE ALABAMA INTO EAST CENTRAL TN... WITH
TEMPS WEST OF THE RIDGELINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING... AND TEMPS EAST
ABOVE FREEZING... WITH CHA...DNN... AND RMG STILL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. STILL EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO EVENTUALLY SPILL OVER THE
RIDGELINE AND POSSIBLY GIVE NW GA A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING TEMPS
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO... BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NW GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... A MIX OF SLEET/SNOW IS STILL
POSSIBLE. ALL THIS THREAT SPREADS INTO NE GA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD TEMPS FINALLY SPREAD EAST BEFORE THE RAIN FIELD CAN PUSH
EAST OF NE GA. ALTHOUGH WARM GROUND TEMPS AND HELP FROM DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP HOLD ANY WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO MAYBE
A DUSTING OF SLEET/SNOW OR A BRIEF GLAZE OF ICE AT BEST... WILL HAVE
TO PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO THE ADVISORY HAS POSTED FOR NOW.
SURFACE TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR MOST OF NORTH GA...EVEN SOUTH OF ATLANTA BY EARLY
EVENING... SO THE BLACK ICE THREAT BEGINS EARLY ACROSS NORTH GA AND
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. IF WE DO CLEAR THE ADVISORY AREA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE... WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THIS BLACK ICE THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STAY TUNED. /39


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO THE
NW CORNER OF GEORGIA TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE
SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE SEEN A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN...BUT
THAT WILL CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE NAM
BRINGS IN THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THE
00Z RUN LAST NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE
NW CORNER OF THE CWFA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT DOESN`T
LOOK TO COME IN ACROSS THE NORTH UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE THE /PREDOMINATE/ PTYPES WILL BE RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LINGERING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 00Z...SO HAVE ADDED SOME FRIZZLE (FREEZING DRIZZLE) TO
THE FORECAST.THE HIGHEST SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL CLOCKING IN
AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT MOST LOCALES WILL BE BELOW THIS
VALUE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS ARE POSSIBLE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHILE AMOUNTS FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTH
GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
IN ADDITION...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADWAYS TO TURN INTO PATCHY BLACK ICE. WILL BE EXTENDING THE WW
ADVSY LONGER IN TIME AND FURTHER EAST.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE A SOGGY DAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT WILL EVEN EXTEND INTO THE
METRO AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH GEORGIA...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRASELTON TO LAGRANGE...SO
EVEN IF THE KIDDOS DON`T NEED A JACKET THIS MORNING AT THE BUS
STOP...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ONE BY THE TIME SCHOOL LETS OUT.

SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS
AREA. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT SOME TWENTY OR MORE DEGREES COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS A BIT VAGUE CONCERNING BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. UPPER FLOW IS WEAK AND GENERALLY ZONAL TO
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSTREAM FROM A PERSISTENT BUT WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MID-WEEK THIS FEATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SHIFTING EAST WHICH MAY HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES A BIT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN THE MEANTIME ANY WEAK WAVES
MOVING OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH LIFT THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY ENHANCED LIFT WOULD BE TOO UNCERTAIN
RIGHT NOW. ALL-IN-ALL THIS JUST CONTINUES MY TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS BUILDS IN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN BY EARLY
TO MID-WEEK AND THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NEW ENGLAND. RIDGE
CENTER IS NOT ESPECIALLY STRONG...1030MB...AND SOURCE REGION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVELY COLD SO ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AND BY THURSDAY THE CONFLUENT
UPPER REGION SHIFTS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING THE WEDGE TO
BREAK ANYWAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF-SHORE LATE IN THE
PERIOD RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...BUT LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE OR UPPER-LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRESENT AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 632 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/
12Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NW GA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY AND SHOULD LAST
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. OBS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY IFR VSBYS WITH
THE RAIN...BUT CIGS ARE DROPPING TO IFR. WILL KEEP THE IFR CIGS
UNTIL THE RAIN BEGINS DIMINISHING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST
MUCH OF THE DAY ALSO...AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NW BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  31  48  30 / 100  30   0   0
ATLANTA         58  29  47  31 / 100  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  24  43  26 / 100  20   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    46  25  46  28 / 100  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        66  33  53  33 / 100  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     57  29  46  30 / 100  20   0   0
MACON           68  36  52  31 /  90  40  10   0
ROME            45  24  46  26 / 100  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  60  29  49  28 / 100  10   0   0
VIDALIA         78  39  49  33 /  60  60  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...
FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...MURRAY...PICKENS...WALKER...WHITFIELD.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...
WHITE.

&&

$$



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