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Area Forecast Discussion

993
FXUS62 KFFC 301933
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
333 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015



.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND MAIN LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES. THE MODELS
ALSO SHOW THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE OVER N GA AND THE CAROLINAS
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO END THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH GA BUT THATS IT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BUILDING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD MONDAY AND THE
MOISTURE REMAINS OF ERIKA REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MONDAY BUT IT
WILL BE A LOT LESS THAN TODAY. GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA MONDAY. INSTABILITIES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO ONLY GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER MONDAY AS WELL. THIS FITS WELL WITH SPC AS THEY CURRENTLY
HAVE US IN JUST A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR MONDAY. TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR LOWS...AND MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS
WITH SOME 70S IN THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS.

01


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL COME IN TWO FORMS FOR THE EXTENDED...AN
UPPER LOW THAT PRETTY MUCH STAYS PARKED ACROSS THE GULF
STATES/NORTHERN GOMEX AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHIFTING THE DEEPEST TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKAS REMNANTS EASTWARD. SO...THE HIGHEST
QPF SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. AS FAR AS THE UPPER
LOW GOES...THE FEATURE COULD HELP KEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIP MORE
SCT/ISOLD IN THE WEST. EITHER FEATURE WILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

ANOTHER BY-PRODUCT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA


&&
.AVIATION...

18Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD CONDITIONS ARE RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA BUT
THE MOST SITES ARE IN THE MVFR RANGE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN LIFT TO VFR AROUND 00Z. LOWER
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT. THE PRECIP SHOULD
END AROUND 090Z ALSO. OTHER THAN IN AND AROUND STRONG CONVECTION
NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST
AND EXPECTED TOP STAY THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE IN THE 10-14KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON SUBSIDING TO 10KT OR LESS
AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  84  69  88 /  70  30  20  30
ATLANTA         69  85  70  88 /  50  30  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  81  63  83 /  50  30  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    67  85  67  88 /  50  30  20  20
COLUMBUS        70  89  71  90 /  50  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     67  82  69  86 /  70  30  20  30
MACON           70  87  70  89 /  50  30  20  20
ROME            67  85  67  89 /  50  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  67  85  68  88 /  50  30  20  20
VIDALIA         72  86  73  89 /  70  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01



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