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Area Forecast Discussion

311
FXUS62 KFFC 260531
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
131 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATED...
/ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/
HAVE INCREASED POPS SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO MACON AREA BASED ON RADAR.
POPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

41

.PREVIOUS...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST OF HE AREA AND TOWARD THE COAST...WITH
UPPER RIDGING SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE AREA. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
WEAKER AND LESS DEFINED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND SO WITH THE
STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BASICALLY JUST WASH OUT BECOMING MORE OF A DEWPOINT/CAPE
GRADIENT THAN ANYTHING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION IS PRETTY
MUCH LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH WE ARE SEEING SOME
PINPRICK CONVECTION RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL GRADIENT. WHAT WEAK
CONVECTION REMAINS THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z. FOR
TONIGHT...LOWER DEWPOINTS IN NORTH GEORGIA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP DOWN COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT
CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL STILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOIST AND MUGGY /AND
THUS COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE/.

WITH THE WASHING OUT FRONT AND THICKNESSES INCREASING IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE...TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO SOME OF
THE HIGHEST WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER. AS AN INTERESTING NOTE...THE
HIGHEST ATL HAS SEEN IN THE PAST 21 DAYS IS 90 DEGREES AND TOMORROW
WE ARE FORECASTING 91 FOR A HIGH. THE WASHING OUT FRONT WILL STILL
BE LINGERING IN CENTRAL GEORGIA TOMORROW SO HAVE KEPT POPS GENERALLY
FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO MILLEDGEVILLE AND AREAS SOUTH...AND ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT. SURFACE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TONIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR THE
EXTENDED.

TDP

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BEGINS LOOSING ITS FOOTHOLD SUNDAY AS
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS
THE STATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKE STATES. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NW GA BY 12Z MON AND SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE. THE
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW THIS FRONT PUSHING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
FL BY 12Z TUE. AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS GA INSTABILITIES INCREASE
WITH CAPES EXPECTED AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LIS RANGING FROM -3
TO -6. SHEAR VALUES DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT THEY DO INCREASE
A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY SPC HAS THE DAY 3 SLIGHT
RISK AREA COMING SOUTH OUT OF TN RIGHT TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER BUT I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THAT EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL
DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LOWER DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA WITH
MOISTURE CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
GA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEGINNING TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOW 80S
ELSEWHERE...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE A DRIER NW TO WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD... WITH POSSIBLY SOME SPOTTY MVFR VSBY AROUND BETWEEN 09-14Z
THIS MORNING... THEN SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING DAYTIME HEATING.
CURRENT LIGHT WNW WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 7-9KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN LIGHT SW WINDS TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  93  73  93 /   5   5   5  10
ATLANTA         71  91  74  89 /  10   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     59  87  65  87 /  10  10  10  30
CARTERSVILLE    66  92  71  90 /   5   5  10  10
COLUMBUS        73  94  75  92 /  20  20   5  20
GAINESVILLE     69  91  74  91 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           71  93  74  92 /  30  20   5  20
ROME            66  92  71  90 /   5   5  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  91  71  91 /  10   5   5  10
VIDALIA         73  94  75  95 /  30  20   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39














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