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Area Forecast Discussion

533
FXUS62 KFFC 041453
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1053 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN ON TRACK. NO MORNING UPDATE
IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADED FOR A
WARM...AND MOSTLY DRY DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 308 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS WEAKENING TODAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL
AFFECT THE CWA NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. WITH THE DRIER
AIR IN PLACE...CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW WHAT WE SEE
NORMALLY IN THE SUMMERTIME. DESPITE THIS STILL ENOUGH OF A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST TODAY BUT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY...MAY SEE MORE SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA
AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BASED ON THIS...HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY COMPARED
TO TODAY...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY IS ALSO A BIT
HIGHER THIS DAY WITH MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG...STILL NOT
IMPRESSIVE FOR SUMMER. SO WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY ONLY A FEW DEGREES FROM THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT A FEW SITES. THE FORECAST IS ONLY ONE DEGREE BELOW
THE RECORD AT CSG TODAY...HOWEVER THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MCN TO CSG AREA HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE HIGH SIDE.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 308 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS AS A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD WITH LARGELY
ZONAL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY BECOMING A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DIFFERENCES BEGINNING TO EMERGE WRT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE WITH GFS NOW SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE WITH
THE TROUGH THAN ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART. REGARDLESS...BOTH APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THE AREA AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES SHOULD
RESULT IN REALLY GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS.

SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT
ORGANIZATION ALONG ACTUAL SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS LIKELY AND WOULD
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR TYPE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
LIKELY POPS AND INCREASED COVERAGE TO INCLUDE THE ATLANTA METRO
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE AFTER 00Z ON FRIDAY.

SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVELS
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO NW FLOW ALOFT REGIME. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
POTENT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND WOULD EXPECT GOOD
COVERAGE OF STORM AGAIN ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS
TO DRY OUT ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
SHORTWAVES CLIPPING THE NE CORRIDOR.

RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO
MID TO UPPER 90S. LATEST MEX IS ACTUALLY MUCH WARMER WITH 100S FOR
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER RUN
BEFORE COMMITTING TO THESE VALUES.

DEESE

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
CALM WINDS AT ATL THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME NW AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT TOO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION OF
THE TAFS. THE FOG ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD IMPROVE IN
THE 12-13Z TIME FRAME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          97  72  97  72 /  20  10  20  20
ATLANTA         96  75  94  74 /  20  10  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     92  65  88  66 /  20  10  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    97  70  95  71 /  20  10  30  30
COLUMBUS        97  76  95  74 /  20  20  30  30
GAINESVILLE     94  74  94  72 /  20  10  30  20
MACON           97  73  96  73 /  20  20  30  30
ROME            98  70  95  71 /  20  10  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  97  69  94  72 /  20  10  30  30
VIDALIA         96  75  95  74 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....ATWELL
AVIATION...20



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