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Area Forecast Discussion

937
FXUS62 KFFC 040658
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
258 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

..ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PERIOD IS MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF SHORT
TERM AS SFC FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST /CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA
TO ATHENS/...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL ALLOW
FOR STORM POTENTIAL. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
ISOLATE SEVERE CONVECTION GIVEN THE 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND NEAR 40
KTS OF BULK 0-6KM SHEAR. GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE LINE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
THREATS /GIVEN DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY LOW FREEZING
LEVEL/. RATHER FAST STORM MOTION GIVEN THE 40-45 KTS OF MEAN WIND
FIELD.

POPS SHOULD DIMINISH IN SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING THEN SHOULD BE
RATHER BREEZY WITH ENHANCED NW FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. IMPRESSIVE COLD
CORE ALOFT FOR EARLY MAY FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY QUICKLY
WITH THE CLOSED TROUGH. A SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD IS
STILL FCST TO SLING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT THUNDER
MENTION GIVEN STRONG FORCING WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.

FOR TEMPS...IN POST FRONTAL REGIME WE SHOULD REACH LOWER MINS
TONIGHT BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE A TAD CHILLIER GIVEN STRONGER WINDS AND ROBUST NW FLOW
KICKING IN. EXPECT UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR NORTHERN MAJORITY AND
EVEN UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN THE NE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

BAKER

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A DRY... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP BY THURSDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE.
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES COMING BY MID NEXT
WEEK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SOMETIME NEXT
ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW... WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA
ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 39

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SWATH OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND SOME LOW CAPE WITH THIS FRONT.
COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THIS COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD
BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSISTING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
POPS RETURN LATE MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST GA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR MID WEEK WITH A
MODERATING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

41

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING CLOUDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH GA /AND THE NORTHERN TAF SITES/ BY
18Z...GENERALLY 4-6KFT. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD STAY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...WITH CHANCES ACROSS THE ATL METRO SITES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME /THOUGH HIGHEST CHANCES WOULD BE
00-03Z IF A PROB30 WERE TO BE INCLUDED AT A LATER POINT/. NW
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH 10-14KT WITH GUSTS TO
20-22KT BY 20Z. GUSTS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF IN THE EVENING...WITH
SUSTAINED 8-12KT PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  51  67  48 /  10  20  10   5
ATLANTA         71  52  65  50 /  20  20  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     66  45  58  45 /  40  50  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    71  49  65  46 /  30  30  10   5
COLUMBUS        75  56  69  50 /   5  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     70  50  63  49 /  20  20  10   5
MACON           76  53  70  48 /   5  10   5   5
ROME            72  48  66  46 /  40  40  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  72  50  67  46 /  10  20   5   5
VIDALIA         78  57  71  51 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31



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