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Area Forecast Discussion

714
FXUS62 KFFC 201946
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
246 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NO FCST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER OH
VALLEY TO SLIDE EAST OVER MIDATLANTIC BY 00Z SAT. AS SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS...CLASSIC WEDGE WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS.
SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE FRI NIGHT. BASED ON
12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL PROGS...PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

12Z RAW MODEL..MOS AND BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND DOING A GOOD JOB WITH
TEMPS AND SEEMS TO CAPTURE WEDGE INFLUENCE OF SAT MAX TEMPS WELL.
BUMPED MIXING HEIGHTS DOWN AS WELL ON SAT. SHOULD BE A PERFECTLY
DREARY DAY. ENJOY FRIDAY.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 250 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE.

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CREATES AN OVERRUNNING FLOW OVER GA...
COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL(80+ PERCENT) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MOVES OVER THE AREA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE PWS IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2
INCHES OR MORE EARLIER IN THE WEEK OR IN URBAN AREAS DUE TO
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLING LEAVES.

THE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS THINGS UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THEN JUST SHOWER CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. ANY PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
THE FAR N COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER THE FAR
N.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU 00Z SAT. NO CLOUDS OR PRECIP
EXPECTED.NW WINDS WILL VEER TO NE FRI MORNING BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN 3-6KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          33  58  32  54 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         37  58  38  55 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     28  54  30  53 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    30  57  33  55 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        39  63  40  62 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     35  56  36  50 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           33  63  36  61 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            31  56  33  57 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  34  59  35  57 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         37  63  40  65 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON



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