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Area Forecast Discussion

316
FXUS62 KFFC 271952
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
352 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Diurnal convection impacting far northwest Georgia this afternoon,
but expect it to diminish into the evening hours. Weak high
pressure will struggle to control the region as a tropical wave
approaches the state from the Atlantic coast. Have continued with
slight chance to chance pops for the far eastern CWA and across
northwest Georgia (where moist southerly flow could trigger some
diurnal activity) late Saturday morning through the evening.
Expect the remaining CWA to be precip free positioned on the
subsidence side of the low. Have continued with a blend of the
guidance for temperatures keeping mid 80s to near 90 across the
state through the weekend.

31


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
No changes from previous forecast. Previous long term discussion
follows.

17

/Issued 435 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

Fcst period begins with interests focused on coastal tropical low
progged to slowly track NW into South Carolina Saturday night into
Sunday. NHC is carrying an 80 percent chance of Tropical Storm
formation in the next 2 days, though for now any impacts look to
stay east of the CWA and primarily bring slight to low end chance
pops for portions of our east going into Sunday. Positioning of
low may even allow for enhance subsidence in our north and west
fighting diurnal forcing for convective initiation.

From Monday onward guidance begins to diverge in evolution of low
and associated moisture field to our east. The GFS is much less
progressive and stagnates some form of the system centered in SC
even into Wednesday while the ECMWF dampens/shifts east after
Monday. Have decided to carry general chance pops in North and
East with slight elsewhere Monday through Wednesday given
uncertainty. Models do agree on broad SW flow return with ramped
up instability by the second half of the work week, so have raised
to 30-40 pops area-wide Thursday and Friday for a bit greater
storm potential.

Temps overall look to stay slightly warmer (3-5 degrees) than
climo norms through the period.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR expected through the period. Convection is expected to be
limited and generally across north Georgia and away from TAF
sites. East winds at 6-8kt through this evening will diminish
overnight, then increase to 5-7kt by mid morning. FEW-SCT CU
expected to develop late morning/early afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  87  63  86 /  10  10  20  30
Atlanta         66  86  67  86 /  10  10  10  20
Blairsville     61  83  59  82 /  20  10  20  30
Cartersville    64  87  63  88 /  10  10  10  20
Columbus        66  89  66  89 /   5  10  10   5
Gainesville     63  85  64  85 /  10  10  20  20
Macon           61  88  62  87 /   5  10  10  20
Rome            63  87  62  88 /  20  20  10  20
Peachtree City  61  87  60  87 /   5   5  10  20
Vidalia         65  87  66  85 /   5  20  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31



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