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Area Forecast Discussion

690
FXUS62 KFFC 111121 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
620 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LIGHT FLURRY ACTIVITY WE SAW OVERNIGHT IN THE
FAR NORTH HAS DISSIPATED. ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW FLAKES WILL
FLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH OR A LITTLE PAST DAYBREAK...
BUT I DO NOT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THIS NEW FORECAST PACKAGE.

AFTER ONE LAST BITTER COLD NIGHT...WE WARM UP NICELY UNDER WEAKENING
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
SHOT OF ENERGY SWEEPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THESE FEATURES. FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER A COUPLE OF THE HI-RES MODELS
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY SO THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED. PRECIPITATION GENERATED IS LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES IN
THAT AREA REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO ISSUES WOULD BE ANTICIPATED IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.


20


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE HIGH HAS WEDGED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT
WAVE DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.
HAVE INTRODUCED POPS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ENDING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL HAVE THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING ACROSS GA
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH WEDGE IN PLACE AND THICKNESS VALUES
LOWERING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THIS IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM MOSTLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. FOR NOW
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY SEE ALL SNOW AND THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET. THIS WILL BE MODIFIED AS THE TIME GETS CLOSER.
OTHERWISE...DRY AFTER TUESDAY WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION.


41


&&


AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BUT LIGHT. I EXPECT WESTERLY
WIND DIRECTION TO DOMINATE THROUGH AROUND 00-04Z WHEN LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 06KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION...HIGH ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  31  52  29 /   0  10  10   0
ATLANTA         50  34  53  30 /   0   5  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     43  25  46  22 /   5   5  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    49  29  51  27 /   0   5  10   0
COLUMBUS        60  39  60  36 /   0   5  10   0
GAINESVILLE     46  31  50  28 /   0   5  10   0
MACON           57  37  60  34 /   0  10  10   0
ROME            48  28  51  26 /   0   5  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  53  32  56  30 /   0   5  10   0
VIDALIA         59  43  63  40 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...
PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20



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