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Area Forecast Discussion

717
FXUS62 KFFC 230630
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
230 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO INCLUDE GILMER COUNTY IN THE FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
COVERAGE OF TEMPERATURES IS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH AREAS THAT
MAY SEE SOME FROST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY...TO INCLUDE IT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

20

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE CWA IS UNDER NW
FLOW INITIALLY WITH RIDGING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NW. THESE CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AREA IS MUCH DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY IN
TERMS OF PW VALUES AND THE NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PERSIST...DID
NOT GO AS COLD AS THE LOWER GUIDANCE VALUES OR EVEN A
BLEND...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT BIAS TOWARDS BEING TOO COLD OVERNIGHT.
THIS RESULTED IN VALUES DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR NE
GEORGIA. WITH THE CALM WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...EXPECT
FROST ACROSS THAT AREA AND THUS HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
FIVE COUNTIES ACROSS THE FAR NE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FROST ACROSS OTHER ISOLATED AREAS IN
NORTH GEORGIA.

AS THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY SHIFTS EAST AND THE NW FLOW BEINGS
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES COMPARED
TO TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...LOWS ONLY DIP DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 30S SO AT THIS POINT JUST A TAD TOO WARM FOR FROST
FRIDAY MORNING.

11

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE LONG TERM. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 312 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT TWO COLD
FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT GA DURING THE PERIOD. AN EARLY WEEKEND
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...BUT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
PRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS CURRENTLY HAVE THE COLDEST MIN TEMPS.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...IF TEMPS ARE COLDER THEN
PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE NORTHEAST GA MTNS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR KMCN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOME CIRRUS BUILDING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE NW WINDS 7
KTS OR LESS FOR MOST SITES.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  43  71  47 /   0   0   5   5
ATLANTA         70  48  70  48 /   0   0   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     67  40  67  42 /   0   0   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    68  39  70  46 /   0   0   5   5
COLUMBUS        72  46  74  48 /   0   0   5   5
GAINESVILLE     69  46  70  49 /   0   0   5   5
MACON           72  41  75  45 /   0   0   5   5
ROME            69  41  71  45 /   0   0   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  70  39  72  44 /   0   0   5   5
VIDALIA         72  48  75  50 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11/20
LONG TERM...NLISTEMAA/17
AVIATION...BAKER





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