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Area Forecast Discussion

671
FXUS62 KFFC 261918
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
318 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Current radar loop shows some isolated showers across
N GA this afternoon with a continued drier air mass across south and
portions of central GA. The surface to mid level ridge continues to
dominate the weather pattern across the southeast as it is helping
to keep the showers to a minimum. The precipitation across the area
is expected to diminish quickly after sunset. The high pressure
ridge is expected to drift a bit northeastward allowing the drier
airmass to move a bit further northward as well. The best storm
chances will stay across N GA but they will stay in the low chance
category. Temps are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s Sat
afternoon with night time lows mainly near 70.

01


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Upper ridging aloft over the eastern US that dominated the short
term will nudge slightly east (with center near Delmarva) at the
start of the long-term...with remnants of TS Fiona inching slowly
westward from the western Atlantic toward the coast of the
Carolinas. A weak upper low will be meandering around AL/TN along
with a nearly stationary shortwave parked along the TX Gulf Coast.
Elsewhere...stronger belt of westerlies will lie across northern
US/Canadian border. At the surface...high pressure centered along
New England coast will ridge down the Appalachians...setting up an
easterly flow/wedge-type feature. All factors into play...low cloud
cover possible across mountain counties and SE Ga on Sunday...with
afternoon precip chances confined to mainly north and SE Ga where
better moisture and lift reside. However...with ridging at sfc and
aloft...coverage should not be very widespread.

Early next week...ECMWF and GEFS ensembles indicate a ridge break
across polar latitudes...which may allow for a pattern change by
late next week. It could also play a role in the track of 99L. For
the first part of next week (Mon/Tues)...aforementioned eastern US
upper ridge will retrograde westward into mid-MS valley with Fiona
remants still lingering across the Ga/SC coast. Sfc ridging will
help keep precip chances/coverage low...but continued easterly flow
will likely bring low cloud cover over eastern counties.Highest
precip chances look to be across SE and east-central Ga.

Trouble in the tropics becomes a factor Tues into the remainder of
the long term. Much uncertainty during this time frame in regards of
the track of 99L and associated sensible weather. H5 ridge will
continue to build westward into Southern PlainS/lower MS
valley...with GFS and ECMWF suggesting amplifying long wave
troughing pushing into the Eastern US. This...combined with
Fiona`s remnant circulation over Ga/Sc coast suggests a more
easterly track along the FL coast and eventually the Ga/Carolina
coast. Other possibilities still include it meandering over FL or
continuing slowly west into Gulf. Strong shear is wreaking havoc
on it now...but with above-normal SSTs...Stay tuned and refer to
the NHC`s latest discussions/data.

Potential exists for the approach of next frontal system late next
week as a seasonably strong shortwave dives into Quebec. Fingers
crossed this will push a quick shot of more comfortable air into at
least a portion of the CWA.

Kovacik

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
No major aviation concerns this TAF period. VFR ceilings with no
restrictions to VSBYs expected to continue. Winds are out of the
NE to E and expected to stay there. Wind speeds expected to stay
10kt or less. Seeing some isolated showers over N GA again this
afternoon and the ATL area airports may be affected through 00z.
Put in a TEMPO group between 20z-23z this afternoon. Expecting
another round of afternoon convection Sat but should see less in
the way of coverage. decided to leave any mention of precip out of
the TAF Sat afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  72  91 /  20  10  10  20
Atlanta         74  91  73  89 /  30  10  10  20
Blairsville     68  87  67  85 /  30  30  20  30
Cartersville    71  92  71  90 /  30  20  10  20
Columbus        73  94  72  92 /   5  10  10  20
Gainesville     72  90  72  88 /  30  20  10  20
Macon           70  94  71  92 /   5   5  10  20
Rome            71  92  71  91 /  30  20  10  20
Peachtree City  70  91  71  90 /  20  10  10  20
Vidalia         70  93  73  92 /   5  10  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Kovacik
AVIATION...01



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