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Area Forecast Discussion

795
FXUS62 KTAE 211055
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
655 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY]...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE
TAF. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WHETHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ANY
TERMINALS, THOUGH ECP APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT A BEING
IMPACTED. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES AND WOULD CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [353 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH ESSENTIALLY NO
UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC FORCING. AT THE SURFACE, A 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTED A COLD FRONT DRAPED WEST TO EAST FROM CENTRAL TX, THROUGH
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS RESULTING IN
CONVECTION LASTING INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO GENERALLY STAY WEST OF US THIS
MORNING, THOUGH OUR FAR WESTERN FLORIDA AND ALABAMA COUNTIES COULD
GET CLIPPED AS THESE STORMS DROP SOUTHEAST NEAR DAWN.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH, REACHING THE TRI-STATE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. A LARGE SWATH OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY, MOST LIKELY JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS MEANS THAT AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
TRI-STATE REGION, THERE LIKELY WON`T BE MUCH OR ANY CONVECTION ALONG
IT. IT WON`T BE UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT
REACHES THE SEABREEZE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THAT CONVECTION COULD
INITIATE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER MARGINAL THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PLENTY ALONG, AND IN THE WAKE OF THE
SEABREEZE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA, AND SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED THIS REGION WITH AS HAVING A "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE MIDWEST. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
WILL SUPPRESS SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

A RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. WITH STACKED HIGH PRESSURE, THE ONLY FORCING FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODELS ARE SHOWING
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING. POPS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.


.MARINE...

THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH DISPERSION INDICES BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

OUR AREA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY AT NORMAL FLOW LEVELS AND WITH NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FORECAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK, NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   93  67  89  66  90 /  20  20  10   0  20
PANAMA CITY   85  70  82  70  86 /  30  20  10   0  20
DOTHAN        89  61  84  63  90 /  10  10  10   0  20
ALBANY        91  62  86  63  89 /  10  10  10   0  20
VALDOSTA      91  63  87  62  88 /  10  10  10   0  20
CROSS CITY    91  68  91  66  90 /  20  20  10  10  30
APALACHICOLA  88  71  85  71  86 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



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