National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

820
FXUS62 KTAE 230137
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
937 PM EDT Wed May 22 2013


.NEAR TERM [Until 7 AM Thursday Morning]...
An upper level trough centered over Western Iowa continues to
send shortwave impulses around its base, ejecting them into our
local area. This will lead to a generally cloudy night and a
chance for isolated thunderstorms, mainly north of I-10. Expect
lows temperatures tonight to be in the mid 60s throughout the CWA.
Pathcy fog should develop around 10Z and last til right after
sunrise. There is the possibility that some areas see locally
dense fog with reduced visibilites.

&&

.SHORT TERM [7 AM Thursday Morning Through Saturday]...
Models continue the trend of less chance of showers and
thunderstorms as a low amplitude trough and associated surface cold
front move across the region tomorrow. With the slightly drier low
levels and limited vertical motion this far south, have dropped
PoPs to 10% or less through the end of the week. Highs Thursday
will once again range in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland. In
the wake of this weak system, seasonably cool and dry air will
settle over the area Friday night and into the weekend with
overnight lows in the 50s and highs on Saturday in the mid to
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
Upper ridging will build over the area through Memorial Day and
into the middle of next week. This will leave somewhat tranquil
conditions in place with a seasonably cool start to the period and
a gradual warm up into the early part of the week, with little or
no rain outside of possible isolated showers along the sea breeze.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 18Z Thursday]...
Other than brief period of early morning IFR cigs/vsby, VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail through the forecast period.
Isolated showers are possible this afternoon, especially near
KECP. However, coverage is expected to be to slim to include in
the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Fairly low winds and seas will persist into Friday, when offshore
winds will increase in the wake of a surface cold front late
Friday night into Saturday. Seas will eventually build as well in
the offshore legs.  Cautionary wind speeds can be expected Friday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Humidity values will remain well above critical levels for one more
day. On Friday, a much drier airmass will move into the region on
gusty northerly winds. This may lead to Red Flag conditions for
inland portions of the Florida Panhandle during the afternoon. A
Fire Weather Watch will be necessary for this region for Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No issues are forecast along area rivers for the foreseeable future.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  91  66  90  54 / 20  10  10  10  10
Panama City   70  87  70  89  63 / 20  10  10  10  10
Dothan        67  92  66  88  55 / 30  10  10  10  10
Albany        67  91  65  86  54 / 30  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      65  90  64  88  53 / 30  10  10  10  10
Cross City    65  89  66  89  57 / 20  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  69  84  68  89  62 / 10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday
     evening for Calhoun-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Walton-Jackson-
     Liberty-Washington.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Navarro/Wool
SHORT TERM...Evans
LONG TERM...Evans
AVIATION...Lahr/Godsey
MARINE...Navarro/Wool/Evans
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Evans