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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 160640

240 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

With plenty of deep, tropical moisture already in place across the
region (with widespread PWATs between 2" and 2.2") sct to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop and
move E-NE over the CWA with the heaviest rainfall expected near the
coast over the FL Panhandle and across much of the FL Big Bend. This
development will be caused by a steepening upper level trof to our
NW which will finally push the stationary Sfc frontal boundary off
to our SE as a cold front later tonight and Wednesday, finally
putting an end to our stagnant pattern of unseasonably wet and humid
conditions. Before that takes place, however, average rainfall
amounts today are expected to range from 0.25" to 0.50" over the
northern 1/4 of the CWA, to between 0.50" and 1" across the
remainder of our AL, GA, and NW FL Panhandle zones, with fairly
widespread 1" to 2" totals expected elsewhere. In fact, some
portions of the southeastern Big Bend as well as coastal areas of
Franklin and Gulf counties could see isolated storm totals of 2" to
4" or even 3" to 5", which could cause some minor flooding of low
lying and poor drainage areas.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The upper level pattern will continue to amplify with the trough
digging down the eastern seaboard. This will bring much drier air
to the region as the deep layer moisture gets shunted southward. At
the surface, the cold front will have pushed well to the south of
our area by Thursday. PoPs will be tapered lower end chance
northwest zones to good chance for the southeast Big Bend tonight.
Then will keep slight to chance PoPs mainly over the southeast Big
Bend for Wednesday with no mention of PoPs on Thursday. Despite
the passage of a cold front, max temps will near to just above
seasonal levels each day. Min temps will drop into the mid to upper
60s most inland areas Wednesday night.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Drier air in the wake of the upper level trough will dominate the
first half of the period. Highs are expected to range from the mid
80s to near 90 with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Late in the
period, another front may move in from the northwest with a
slight increase in PoPs, but nothing significant is currently



[Through 12Z Wednesday] Through the remainder of the overnight
hours, VFR conditions are expected to hold at TLH, DHN, and ECP,
with MVFR to possible IFR Cigs at ABY and VLD. However, ECP will be
very near the showers and storms that are already plentiful over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, and they may need amending before 12Z
today. Thereafter, sct to nmrs showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop at all of the terminals from south to north
today, with heavy rainfall likely reducing Vis and Cigs to MVFR and
even IFR levels at ECP, TLH, and VLD, with MVFR reductions expected
at DHN and ABY. This rainfall is expected to linger well into the
evening hours at the southern and eastern terminals, with all areas
expected to be free from convection by 06Z Wed. as the cold front
pushes through.



Slightly elevated seas today will subside into the 1 to 2 foot range
tonight. Winds and seas will remain low through the remainder of
the work week. Friday night into the weekend, a strong ridge of
high pressure will build northeast of the area creating a pattern
favorable for an increase in easterly winds and seas.


.Fire Weather...

After one more very wet day across the region today, much drier air
will push into the area from northwest to southeast on Wednesday and
Thursday. However, this air mass will still not be dry enough to
cause any fire weather concerns.



Some locally heavy rain is possible tonight into Tuesday,
especially near the coast with a stalled front in the area that
will begin to move on Tuesday. General amounts of 1-3" are
expected with isolated higher amounts expected. While this may
cause some rises on our area rivers and streams, it is unlikely to
bring any of them to flood stage, especially with the highest
rainfall amounts expected closer to the coast. There is a
possibility of some localized flash flooding through Tuesday if
the heavier amounts fall over an urban area such as Panama City,
but confidence is not quite high enough in this happening to put
up a watch at this time. However, we will be monitoring trends
closely for that possibility.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   88  70  92  68  91 /  70  50  20  10   0
Panama City   87  74  91  73  91 /  70  40  10  10   0
Dothan        90  68  91  65  90 /  50  30  10   0   0
Albany        89  70  92  65  90 /  50  30  10  10   0
Valdosta      87  69  91  65  90 /  70  50  20  10   0
Cross City    85  70  89  68  91 /  80  60  40  10   0
Apalachicola  85  74  89  72  90 /  70  50  20  10   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...





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