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Area Forecast Discussion

344
FXUS62 KTAE 270030
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
832 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

At 00z aside from a few cirrus, skies were clear and drier air
continues to filter in on light northerly winds. Dew points have
dropped into the mid to upper 50s for all but our easternmost GA
zones and the SE Big Bend. As winds become calm overnight, temps
will drop into the lower to mid 60s except the SE Big Bend and the
immediate coastal areas which will see upper 60s to lower 70s. Some
locations will experience their lowest temps since early to mid May.
Unfortunately, this will be short lived as the low level moisture
and warmer overnight temperatures begin to return Thursday and
Thursday night.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

In the upper levels, a trough will be over the Southeast U.S. on
Thursday and weak ridging will be in place on Friday. At the sfc,
a weak low over Georgia will be in place with a stationary
boundary near eastern portions of the region. On Thursday, POPs
around 30 to 40 percent are expected for the eastern Big Bend and
eastern Georgia counties. Elsewhere, rain chances are very slim.
With northerly flow in place, dry air will bring some relief to
the heat with much lower humidity for most of the region. Highs on
Thursday will be in the low 90s with heat indices in the low to
mid 90s.

On Friday, moisture begins to creep back into the region
increasing rain chances (30 to 55 percent POPs southeast of a line
from Panama City to Albany). Highs on Friday will be in the low 90s
with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Upper level features are forecast to be weak in the extended
period. At the sfc, features will be weak until Tuesday morning
when Erika may be affecting central Florida. There is still a
great deal of uncertainty with Erika`s track. If Erika tracks
farther east it will not impact the region. If Erika tracks
farther west into the Gulf it could strengthen into a weak
hurricane. The official NHC forecast has Erika, moving through
central Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a slight
increase in rain chances here. This weekend scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon/evening hours as low
level moisture increases. Expect highs in the low 90s with heat
indices around 100 degrees at times.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday]

Unusually quiet aviation weather is expected through the period,
with VFR conditions and light winds.

&&

.Marine...

Light winds and low seas are expected through the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Minimum relative humidities will gradually increase along with
rain chances for the remainder of the week into the weekend.
There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

The next couple of days will be dry for most locations, before
transitioning back to a wet pattern this weekend. Regardless, the
5-day QPF outlook has widespread average amounts between a half of
an inch to an inch. No impacts to area rivers are expected through
the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  93  71  91  74 /   0  10  10  50  30
Panama City   69  88  74  88  77 /   0   0  10  30  30
Dothan        63  91  68  91  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        64  93  71  91  73 /   0  10  10  30  20
Valdosta      66  93  72  92  74 /   0  30  20  50  20
Cross City    72  90  73  90  74 /  10  40  20  50  30
Apalachicola  69  88  74  88  77 /   0   0  10  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...BARRY/FOURNIER
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN



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