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Area Forecast Discussion

270
FXUS62 KTAE 240654
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
254 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Stacked high pressure will remain in place over the northern Gulf
coast today. Low level flow from the southwest will help advect some
Gulf moisture to the area, but with weak western and northern flow
aloft, model precipitable water values remain in the 1-1.5" range,
which is about 75% of normal for our area for this time of year.
Because of this dry airmass in place over north Florida, we don`t
expect much in our area in terms of thunderstorm coverage, however,
there will be about a 20% chance for thunderstorms just east of our
area over the Florida Peninsula, so there is a very small chance
(less than 10%) that an isolated storm may make it into the
eastern Big Bend in the afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Mainly dry conditions will persist through Saturday night as the
upper level ridge remains in place and relatively low PWAT values
(near 1.5" or less) persist over our area. A few isolated
showers/storms can`t be ruled out across the eastern Big Bend and
parts of SW Georgia on Saturday afternoon, when instability is
maximized. Moisture will increase on Sunday afternoon, with PWAT
values approaching 2". Although no upper level forcing will be
present, the sea breeze along with increased moisture and
instability should be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of our area on Sunday afternoon and
early evening. Saturday looks like the hotter day with highs in
the upper 90s, possibly approaching 100 in some locations, but
increased humidity on Sunday with highs in the mid-90s should
allow the heat index to reach/exceed 100 on both days. Lows in the
low-mid 70s are likely during this period.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible
through this period, with chances highest each afternoon and early
evening due to the diurnal sea breeze circulation and maximized
instability during these times. An upper level ridge will be
present early in the period, along with some relatively drier air
in place on Monday due to light northeasterly flow. As a result,
it looks like precipitation coverage on Monday may be more sparse
than the remainder of the week, when increased moisture will
return to our area. By the middle of the week, an upper level
trough will dip into the southeastern CONUS along with a quasi-
stationary front at the surface stretching across central AL and
GA. These features could slightly enhance coverage of showers and
storms across our area, especially across SE AL and SW GA.
Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist during this
period, with highs in the low-mid 90s and lows/dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...

Local hi-res guidance continues to show a 30-40% chance for IFR
visibilities this morning in the interior FL Panhandle between KTLH,
KDHN, and KECP for the hours between 06 and 12Z. Guidance for all of
our individual TAF sites, however, remains VFR through the period.
Light and variable winds tonight will be southwesterly during the
daytime hours. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected to be focused
over the FL Peninsula, though an isolated shower near KTLH or KVLD
will be possible.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds generally from 5-10 knots will persist over the
northeastern Gulf for the next several days, resulting in light
seas of 1-2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected today and Saturday with
more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms returning on
Sunday. Relative humidity values will remain above critical
thresholds through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Little rain is expected through the first half of the weekend. After
this, significant rainfall amounts are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  97  74  96  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   75  88  76  89  77 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        73  98  75  96  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        74  99  75  96  74 /   0   0   0  20  20
Valdosta      72  97  74  95  74 /   0   0   0  20  20
Cross City    72  94  74  93  74 /   0  20   0  20  20
Apalachicola  74  89  75  90  76 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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