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Area Forecast Discussion

371
FXUS62 KTAE 010141
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY ON RADAR WITH THREE ROUNDS OVER SEVERE
WEATHER, THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN. IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO
BEFORE WE CAN COMPILE ALL OF THE DAMAGE REPORTS THAT HAVE AND WILL
COME IN. THANKS TO ALL THAT SENT OR CALLED IN REPORTS. CAMS
INDICATE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, WE
ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF WITH THOSE STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. BOTTOM LINE, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. NO EXPECTING ANY MORE
SEVERE THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS OF 01Z. EXPECT
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT ABY/VLD/TLH BEFORE SUNRISE. GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR ECP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO VCTS
GROUPS WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [414 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA-BREEZE REGIME
TYPE 5 KEEPING THE HIGHEST DAYTIME POPS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WEAKENS. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHETHER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY
MONDAY OR IF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APALACHIANS
(AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS) KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH UNSETTLED. FOR NOW, OPTED FOR A FORECAST CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH FEATURES POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 90S.


.MARINE...
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND REDUCING WINDS AND SEAS TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MINOR RISES TO AREAS RIVERS AND
STREAMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST AREAS WELL BELOW ACTION STAGES, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  93  75  94  76 /  20  40  30  40  20
PANAMA CITY   78  88  80  89  79 /  20  30  20  40  20
DOTHAN        72  92  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  40  20
ALBANY        72  93  74  94  74 /  30  40  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      73  94  75  94  74 /  20  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    75  92  76  92  75 /  20  40  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  79  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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