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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 221745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
145 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
this afternoon and may bring temporary MVFR cigs and vsbys, but will
dissipate shortly after sunset. After that, we expect VFR conditions
to prevail through 18Z Tuesday.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

12Z surface analysis shows a decaying cold front sagging just north
of our forecast area with a ridge of high pressure over the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys. The 12Z TAE sounding today showed a 1.90 inch PW,
which is on the higher end of our normal range this time of year
(within the 75th percentile). Satellite estimates show similar PW
values over the region, with values in the 1.5-2 inch range across
the northern Gulf coast. Instability is also abundant this morning,
with the SPC mesoanalysis page showing 2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE across
the southeast. Local radar imagery shows shower and thunderstorm
activity is currently most active over our coastal waters this
morning, but convection is expected to begin to develop along the
coast over the next few hours and then become widespread across the
forecast area this afternoon. The consensus of our local hi-res
guidance is that the highest activity today will be seen across
north Florida and in southeast Alabama, though there is at least a
40% chance for storms across all of southwest Georgia as well. Highs
today will peak in the low to mid 90s, but with a very moist air
mass in place, it will feel more like 100-105.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

On Tuesday, a weakening cold front will continue to push southward
towards the I-10 corridor. As high pressure builds off the Mid-
Atlantic coast, winds will turn northeasterly behind the front.
Convection on Tuesday will likely be aided by the weak front and a
strong east coast seabreeze interacting with plentiful deep
layer moisture. The best chance for convection on Tuesday will
likely be across the eastern half of the area with the added
influence of the east coast seabreeze. PoPs are currently forecast
in the likely category across the east, around 60%. A few strong
or severe storms with gusty winds could also occur given that CAPE
is forecast to be above 3000 j/kg with WMSI values over 80, mainly
across the eastern half.

On Wednesday, some drier air at the surface will start to advect
into the area with northeast flow. The focus for convection will
likely shift to the western parts of the area with less coverage
compared to Tuesday.

High temperatures both day will mainly be in the low to mid 90s
with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

A much drier airmass still looks on track for Thursday with PWAT
values dropping to around 1.2-1.5 inches. Thunderstorms chances
will be much lower on Thursday as well with a noticeable
decrease in dewpoints. This drier airmass is expected to linger
into the weekend with below average chances for convection. Deep
moisture is expected to start to increase again by early next
week. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal, but with lower
dewpoints than we`ve seen in a while, the heat index values will
not be quite as high.


Fairly seasonal conditions are expected this week with no major
systems. Winds are expected to become easterly by the middle of
the week and increase to around 15 knots at times. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected.


The weather pattern will continue to be wet until mid-week. No fire
weather concerns.


Scattered showers and storms are expected each afternoon through
Wednesday, becoming more isolated in nature Thursday through
Sunday. At this time, no widespread flooding concerns are
expected. However, brief heavy rainfall is possible with the
slower moving storms through midweek.



Tallahassee   75  96  76  93  74 /  20  40  30  20  10
Panama City   78  90  78  89  76 /  10  30  20  20  10
Dothan        73  94  74  92  72 /  10  30  20  20  10
Albany        74  96  74  93  71 /  10  50  30  10   0
Valdosta      75  94  74  91  71 /  20  60  20  20  10
Cross City    76  95  75  92  73 /  10  60  30  20  10
Apalachicola  76  91  78  89  77 /  10  30  30  20  10







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