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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 251128

628 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015

[Through 12Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions across the TAF sites to begin this morning. Clouds
will increase today with MVFR cigs expected for Thursday morning.
Wind gusts up to 18kts are expected late this morning into the


.Prev Discussion [355 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Upper ridging will build across the CWA today while high pressure
remains in place down the east coast. Easterly winds will help to
increase the moisture off the Atlantic which will result in more low
level clouds. While precipitation is not expected across the land
areas, both the GFS and ECMWF are pointing to shower development
over the marine area today. The SREF and NAM only show a hint of
this. For the forecast, have included chance PoPs, but they are
limited to the marine area.

High temperatures will increase today compared to yesterday and this
will put highs more near normal for today.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The synoptic pattern will remain largely unchanged through the short
term period with upper level ridging along the northern Gulf coast
and low level high pressure along the Atlantic coastline. This will
keep low level flow from the east-northeast and upper level flow
from the north-northwest through the period. The remainder of the
week should be dry and relatively warm with highs will be in the 70s
and lows in the 50s to around 60.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

A strong +PV anomaly over the southwestern states will lift
northeastward toward the northern Plains this weekend. As it does
so, a weak frontal system will develop across the Plains and move
eastward. There is some slight model disagreement about the speed of
this system, but most guidance is showing the southern edge of this
system decaying as it approaches the southeast, with only slight
(20%) chances for rain Sunday night through Tuesday. Highs will stay
in the 70s and lows will stay in the 50s to around 60.


Winds will remain east-northeasterly through the period, with small
craft advisory conditions through at least Friday morning, possibly
lingering into Friday afternoon before falling. Seas will peak
around 9-10 feet over our western offshore waters tonight.

.Fire Weather...

High pressure will dominate today. Red Flag conditions are not
forecast through tomorrow as RH values will remain around 50
percent or above.


With no significant rains expected for the next several days,
there are no immediate flood concerns. The lower Choctawhatchee
River will remain at action stage below Caryville for the next
several days.

On the Apalachicola River, releases from Woodruff will continue to
decrease through the week, so expect the Blountstown point to drop
below action stage early this weekend.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  56  76  61  78 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   71  57  72  61  73 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        68  53  73  56  73 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        69  51  73  54  74 /   0  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      71  54  75  58  76 /  10  10  10   0   0
Cross City    75  59  77  59  78 /  10  10  10  10   0
Apalachicola  72  59  75  61  74 /  10  10   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday FOR Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.




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