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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 251945

345 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The latest observations and guidance continue to suggest that the
forecast is on track with the best rain chances over the southern
half of the area today. It still seems we will see scattered to
numerous showers and storms over our Florida zones, and isolated to
the north, through the afternoon. The exception will be an organized
line of showers and storms approaching from the east. As of 19Z,
this line extended from about 20 miles north of Valdosta, to Lake
City, to Gainesville. If it maintains its current pace it would
reach Tallahassee around 22-23Z, and Panama City and Apalachicola in
the evening hours. The convective line is relatively thin, so
individual locations may not see rain last for more than an hour or
so.  We maintained likely PoPs over much of our Florida zones in the
afternoon, and in the Apalachicola River region of the eastern
Florida Panhandle in the evening as the aforementioned line
continues to move west and eventually dissipate. Thus far, storm
intensity (and lightning activity) has been fairly limited, but a
few stronger storms later in the afternoon can`t be ruled out.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

The 500 mb high currently centered over the TX Panhandle will
be located over southern MO Monday night. The weak upper level +PV
anomaly off the northeast FL coast will stall across north central FL
Sunday and Monday. A very broad, weak surface low will develop off
the west central FL coast Sunday and Monday. Much of the deep
layer moisture will be shifted just south of our forecast area,
resulting in below-average PoPs for most of our region, except for
Dixie County. Daytime PoPs will generally range from 20% around
Tallahassee to 50% at Cross City, and PoPs of 10% in GA and AL.
Although high temperatures will still be warm (mid 90s), the lower
humidity may make it feel a tad more pleasant than it has been the
past few weeks.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

A strong 500 mb high will persist over the Central Plains through
much of the upcoming week, then begin to retrograde by the
weekend. Our forecast area will be under the eastern periphery of
this ridge until next weekend. The broad surface low expected to
develop near the west FL coast Sunday and Monday will meander
through the remainder of the week, eventually getting absorbed
into a frontal system by next weekend. Initially the airmass over
our region will still be relatively dry, with below- average PoPs
on Tuesday. However, the airmass is expected to moisten
considerably, and PoPs will increase to above-normal later in the
week. In fact, depending on the exact location, structure, and
intensity of the low, the PoPs from this afternoon`s forecast
package may be too low. Temperatures will be near climo levels.



[Through 18Z Sunday] Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon would be most likely to affect ECP, TLH, and VLD. In
addition, a line of showers and thunderstorms should move from east
to west over extreme SW Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This may
reach VLD prior to 20Z, TLH around 22-23Z, and ECP around 02-03Z.
Overall, VFR conditions should generally prevail, but IFR
visibilities and brief gusty winds will be possible in any of the
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.



With a weak, broad low pressure system slowly developing across FL
this weekend, winds will be NE 10 to 15 kt overnight, then light,
onshore during the daytime, through early next week.


.Fire Weather...

Drier air will move into the region through the first part of the
week resulting in lower afternoon and evening rain chances. While
relative humidity levels will drop into the upper 30 percent range
during the afternoon hours through Tuesday...red flag conditions
are not expected.



With drier air coming in from the north, the QPF will be quite low
the next few days, except around Cross City. There is some
potential for heavier rain later next week.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  94  74  96  75 /  40  20  10  20  10
Panama City   77  91  78  91  79 /  60  10  10  10  10
Dothan        74  93  73  95  74 /  10   0   0  10  10
Albany        72  94  72  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      71  93  71  94  72 /  10  20  10  20  10
Cross City    73  91  73  91  73 /  30  50  20  50  20
Apalachicola  76  90  77  91  78 /  60  20  10  20  10


FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf.




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