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Area Forecast Discussion

877
FXUS62 KTAE 260528
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
128 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Wednesday]...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight through the early
morning hours. One exception could be ECP due to possible showers
and storms after 09Z. Periods of MVFR cigs and brief MVFR/IFR
visibility restrictions can`t be ruled out. Scattered thunderstorm
potential will spread north and east to all other terminals
through the late morning and afternoon hours, with brief MVFR/IFR
visibility restrictions possible but VFR prevailing. Showers and
storms will dissipate in the evening, with VFR conditions expected
at all terminals during this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [801 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

As of 00z, isolated showers were mainly along the coastal areas of
the Florida Panhandle. Deeper moisture is located just south of
the area in association with a weak trough, and models indicate
that this airmass will move northward overnight. Some increase in
convective coverage is expected before daybreak across the coastal
waters and portions of the panhandle as a result.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Operational model guidance remains consistent with progressing the
TUTT low currently located over the northern Gulf of Mexico westward
tomorrow. This will yield southerly flow across the eastern Gulf
region tomorrow, allowing deep layer moisture to advect northward
across much of the region. PWATs across the tri-state region will
approach the 2" mark tomorrow. This, along with moderate instability
will allow for more widespread coverage of convection across the
region. As a result, the POP grids reflect widespread Chc POPs
across the region with Likely POPs across the western third of the
forecast area.

Wednesday, deep layer ridging will begin to build back into the area
as the Bermuda High backs into the area once again. This will mark a
return to the normal summertime pattern. Though there are some
discrepancies from model to model regarding timing and magnitude,
the general consensus is that drier mid/upper level air will filter
into the region once again which would somewhat limit convective
coverage across the region. As a result, POPs will generally run 20-
30% lower than on Tuesday, with the best chances being confined to
western portions of the forecast area.

Afternoon highs will run in the upper 80s to mid 90s from south to
north across the region, with lows in the mid 70s inland and upper
70s near the coast. Heat indices will range in the upper 90s to
lower 100s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Deep layer high pressure will be in place through the long term
period with a seasonably moist airmass underneath. This will yield
typical summertime thunderstorm chances associated with the sea-
breeze across the tri-state region each afternoon and evening.
Afternoon highs will run just above seasonal normals - in the mid to
upper 90s, with overnight lows in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s
near coastal locales.


.MARINE...

Southerly winds of 15 knots or less will persist through the next
several days, resulting in seas of 2 to 3 feet. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase in coverage across coastal waters
overnight and through Tuesday before becoming more isolated
Wednesday through the end of the week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from high dispersion values across inland portions of the Tri-
state region on Tuesday, there are no other fire weather concerns
for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

No widespread flooding concerns are anticipated through the period.
However, isolated/localized flooding can`t be ruled out through
mid-week (especially Tuesday) with increased coverage of showers
and thunderstorms and weak steering flow in place across the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  75  93  75  95 /  60  10  20   0  20
Panama City   86  80  88  79  89 /  80  40  20   0  20
Dothan        91  74  93  74  93 /  70  20  40  10  20
Albany        95  74  94  74  96 /  50  10  30  10  20
Valdosta      93  73  94  74  95 /  50  10  20   0  20
Cross City    93  74  94  75  94 /  30  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  88  78  89  78  90 /  60  20  20   0  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Pullin



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