« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » TAE Area Forecast Discussion

Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 240315

1015 PM EST MON NOV 23 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

After sunset, temperatures began trending much cooler than the
vast majority of model guidance. This is most likely due to a
large swath of observations across the area reporting calm winds,
allowing for better boundary layer decoupling, and the very dry
air mass with PWAT on the 00Z TAE sounding at 0.21". Both of those
conditions favor efficient radiational cooling processes. That
being said, the models do likely have a good sense of the large
scale environment and we don`t expect that MOS guidance will be
too far off the eventual low temperatures. Therefore, most of the
temperature adjustment to the forecast has been to show a more
rapid cool-down this evening, tapering closer to the inherited
lows in the previous forecast.

However, the low temperatures were nudged down slightly to
account for the recent trends. This yields a light freeze just
before sunrise across the northwest third of the forecast area.
Therefore, a Freeze Warning has been issued for those areas. The
slightly colder trend also warranted a slight expansion of the
Frost Advisory to include coastal zones (except for coastal Dixie
County). This does not mean that frost is expected all the way
down to the coast, but locations a couple miles inland could
potentially see some patchy frost.

Temperatures were a little more tricky in the central and eastern
Florida Panhandle. As is usually the case in these situations,
colder temperatures have been observed in the Apalachicola
National Forest, and as of 03Z were already into the upper 30s.
This may put some of those locations close to Freeze Warning
criteria. At this time we don`t think widespread parts of that
area will see the necessary 2-hour durations of freezing
temperatures to warrant a warning, but a few isolated spots may
reach that threshold.

In Tallahassee, the temperature difference between our office at
FSU and the TLH Airport has been running about 6 degrees right
now. We generally forecasted that to continue, with a 34 degree
low at the airport, and lows around 40 closer to downtown.



[Through 00Z Wednesday] VFR conditions and calm to light northerly
winds are expected to prevail (with generally clear skies).


.Prev Discussion [234 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
High pressure across the Mid Atlantic and into New England will
continue to keep moderate easterly flow in place across the region
through the short term period. The gradient will tighten on
Wednesday, resulting in stronger easterly flow and likely a lower
level cloud deck by the afternoon. With the influence of the
easterly flow, expect temperatures to return to normal or slightly
above normal levels. Tuesday will still be in the low to mid 60s
across the region, but by Wednesday, high temperatures will start
to approach 70 across all but Srn Alabama and SW Georgia.
Overnight lows will be much warmer, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Surface high pressure will begin to weaken by the weekend in
response to an approaching storm system on Saturday. The influence
of a strong mid level ridge will slow the approach of this frontal
system until early next week until the next piece of northern
stream energy drops into the Tennessee River Valley on Monday.

This will result in a period of relatively tranquil and warm
conditions starting on Thanksgiving and continuing into Sunday.
Initially, moderate easterly flow on Thursday may create a breezy
day, but thereafter, weaker flow should lessen the impact of any
low level cloudiness from the Atlantic and allow temperatures to
warm to near 80 on Friday and Saturday across North Florida.
Overnight lows will remain mild, generally in the mid to upper

A tight pressure gradient with our region on the southern end of a
large area of high pressure across the Mid Atlantic will keep an
extended period of moderate to strong easterly winds in place
across the marine area this week. As a result, cautionary
conditions will be common through Friday, with a period of
advisory level winds tonight and once again on Tuesday night into

.Fire Weather...
Although relative humidity values will be fairly low again on
Tuesday afternoon, red flag conditions are not expected. RH values
will increase for the remainder of the week.

A dry stretch of weather for the next 7 days will allow for rivers
to continue to move water from last week`s rains through the
system. Only the lower Choctawhatchee remains at action stage.
While some rises to near 12 feet are expected at Bruce in the next
couple of days, flood stages should not be met, especially given
no additional rainfall is expected.

Elsewhere, there are no concerns as streamflows, though above
normal in many places, remain below action stages.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   34  66  50  70  56 /   0   0  10  10  10
Panama City   40  66  52  71  57 /   0   0  10  10  10
Dothan        32  64  45  65  51 /   0   0  10  10  10
Albany        33  64  44  67  52 /   0   0  10  10  10
Valdosta      33  66  49  68  56 /   0   0  10  10  10
Cross City    36  70  51  75  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  41  68  55  71  59 /   0   0  10  10  10



FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Central Walton-Holmes-
     North Walton.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Tuesday FOR Calhoun-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday FOR Baker-Ben Hill-Calhoun-

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday FOR Berrien-Brooks-

AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Tuesday FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday FOR Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.