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Area Forecast Discussion

281
FXUS62 KTAE 041900
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
300 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

In the wake of a cold front, some slight cold air advection has
produced a cooler day today. It looks like highs should range from
the mid 70s in the north, to the lower 80s in the Florida Big Bend.
Northwesterly winds will back to the west overnight and decrease,
with lows generally in the mid-50s under mostly clear skies.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A large upper low will remain over the eastern third of the
country through Friday night. With lower tropospheric heights and
temperatures running 2-4 standard deviations below normal, expect
afternoon highs to be much cooler than average. Thursday will be
the coolest afternoon, with highs in the low 70s across Alabama
and Georgia, and the mid 70s elsewhere. Mid 70s should be common
at most locations on Friday. Overnight lows will also run a few
degrees below normal, with low to mid 50s forecast. No rain is
expected.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Deep ridging will prevail through most of the extended range
forecast. This will yield dry conditions with normal/above normal
highs through the weekend and early next week. Tuesday into
Wednesday, a frontal systems is expected to introduce showers and
thunderstorms back into the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions prevailed at all terminals and this should
continue with gradual clearing through tonight. Northwest winds
will be gusty at times both this afternoon and on Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

An extended period of Cautionary conditions is expected through
Friday as high pressure builds into the region behind low pressure
off the Mid-Atlantic coast. By the weekend light winds and low
seas are expected to prevail once again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will prevail over the next few days with humidity
values dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s Thursday afternoon.
With ERC values in the upper 20s...Dixie County may approach Red
Flag conditions on Thursday. With strong transport winds...very
high dispersion values are expected both Thursday and Friday
afternoons.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

With no rain expected over the next week, there are no hydrology
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   57  75  54  77  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  75  59  76  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        54  72  50  75  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        54  72  50  75  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      55  74  51  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  76  55  76  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  60  75  59  75  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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