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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 260740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
340 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

While high pressure will be in control at the surface today, deep
layer ridging will build in from the southwest behind a weak
shortwave. Dry conditions are expected, with highs similar to the
past few days. Expect around 90 degrees away from the coast, with
low 80s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Our forecast area will be situated between two upper level ridges,
one over the Gulf of Mexico and the other extending from the western
Atlantic into southeast Canada. A deep layer low pressure system,
with its surface minimum currently centered several hundred miles
east of south FL, will be steered through this split in the ridge
and toward the Southeast coast on Saturday. The consensus of
global models shows a 1012 mb low centered offshore the GA/SC
coasts Saturday evening. The FSU Cyclone phase website does
indicate this system could become marginally warm core, and the
NHC gives it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical
cyclone over the next 5 days, though only 30% through Friday

Given the fairly good agreement among the latest global models,
we`re fairly confident that this system will remain well to our east
and have no direct impacts on our weather. It`s likely that the
large envelope of dry, sinking air preceding this system will
suppress deep moist convection in our region, and our PoPs are
less than 20% each day. Temperatures will remain close to normal
for this time of year with lows in the mid 60s and highs around
90. However, the humidity will continue to be on the low side (at
least compared to early summer values), which will make it feel
relatively comfortable in the shade.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The upper level pattern over the Southeast will change little from
that described above, allowing the aforementioned low pressure
system to move slowly inland along the SC coast during the first
part of the week. Our forecast area will remain on the subsidence
side of the weakness between the Mid Atlantic and Gulf ridges.
Gradually increasing moisture across our region will increase,
becoming more supportive of afternoon & evening deep moist
convection triggered by the sea breeze fonts. Temperatures will
generally be a few degrees above normal.


.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

LIFR Visibilities and ceilings will plague ECP this morning,
clearing shortly after sunrise. Thereafter, VFR is expected at all
terminals for the remainder of the TAF.



The weather pattern will remain steady through Saturday as a surface
ridge remains centered northeast of the marine area. Moderate east
winds will prevail during the overnight and early morning period,
with light onshore winds near the coast during the afternoon and
early evening hours.



Outside of marginally high dispersion indices, hazardous fire
weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.



The local rivers will remain below action stage.



Tallahassee   90  66  90  65  90 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   81  70  82  69  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        88  66  88  66  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        89  66  89  64  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      88  63  88  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    89  61  89  63  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  81  69  82  69  83 /   0   0   0   0   0






NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier

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