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Area Forecast Discussion

799
FXUS62 KTAE 251955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF
CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.


.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  89  71  89  70 /  20  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   75  84  73  84  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  40  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  40  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  40  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



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