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Area Forecast Discussion

543
FXUS62 KTAE 272336
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
736 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions with a light S/SW flow will prevail at all TAF sites.
However, from 10Z-13Z, DHN may experience MVFR conditions due to
light fog. Going into tomorrow, isolated afternoon storms could
develop in the vicinity of the TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [339 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop along
the North Florida sea breeze. With surface and upper ridging
continuing to build over the area, most locations will remain dry
through this evening as subsidence and drier air aloft will limit
storm development. Activity will diminish after sunset with the loss
of instability.

Typical summertime evening in store across the area, with light
south to southwest winds and low temperatures in the mid 70s inland,
upper 70s to near 80 in coastal zones and skies clearing overnight.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will be in place through the short term period,
yielding below average shower and thunderstorm chances and above
average afternoon high temperatures. The latest operational guidance
remains in good agreement in a push of drier air moving into the
region late Thursday and Friday around the southern periphery of the
high. Any convection that does manage to develop in this time-frame
will tend to remain isolated across the region. The main story
will be rising temperatures, as highs will soar into the mid to
upper 90s. Heat indices will range from 103 to 107 F.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The long term period will see subtropical ridging flatten as a broad
shortwave trough traverses the Ohio Valley this weekend. This
feature will help pull moisture associated with a stagnant, weak
low pressure system eastward across much of the Southeast. This,
along with southerly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico will yield an
increase in PWATS to near 2" across much of the region, resulting
in near average POPS for this time of year (30-40%). Seasonal
temperatures are expected, with highs generally ranging in the
lower to mid 90s and heat indicies generally ranging from 100 to
105F.


.MARINE...

Winds will remain generally below 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or
less through the period as high pressure dominates the overall
weather pattern.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

No flooding concerns for the area as a drier pattern is forecast
through the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  98  75  96  76 /  10  20   0  20  10
Panama City   79  93  80  89  80 /  10  10   0  10  10
Dothan        74  98  74  94  75 /  10  10   0  20  10
Albany        74  98  74  96  75 /  10  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      73  98  73  97  74 /  10  20   0  10   0
Cross City    74  97  74  95  75 /  10  20   0  20   0
Apalachicola  77  93  78  91  79 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore/Bennett
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Harrigan/Chaney
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Pullin



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