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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 311409

1009 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.Near Term [Rest of Today]...

The morning band of lingering convection over northern sections of
south central GA has weakened and come to an end, so tweaked this
morning`s PoPs back down to 20% across the board. PoPs for this
aftn looked generally good as is, with 50% rain chances dominating
the CWA. Prevailing winds in the Sea Breeze layer (1000-700 mb)
are very light, so expect the convection to evolve like a Type 1
Sea Breeze day, with some influence from the Upper levels. Given
the light steering flow and PWATs still near 2 inches, some of
the storms that develop could be very heavy rain producers once
again, so we will be monitoring any storms or band of storms for
potential localized flooding.


.Prev Discussion [406 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Very little will change in terms of the overall synoptic setup
from this weekend into the first couple days of the new work week.
This has led us to a forecast weighted more toward persistence,
although the latest model guidance also reflects similar scenarios
to what has been observed this weekend. Essentially, an upper
level ridge will continue to influence area weather with weak flow
through the troposphere and warmer-than-normal temperatures. The
forecast calls for a continuation of scattered thunderstorms, with
coverage peaking in the afternoon to early evening, and highs in
the mid-90s away from the coast. We may see a continuation of
locally heavy rainfall as well given slow storm motions and PWATs
around seasonal normals (1.8 to 1.9 inches).

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The period will begin with a weak ridge in place across the
Southeast with near zonal flow across the northern stream. Early
in the period, near normal storm coverage is anticipated with the
lack of any large scale forcing. By Thursday, a tropical wave will
near the Florida east coast bringing an increase in moisture to
the region and weaken the ridge aloft. Thus in the latter part of
the period, rain chances will be on the increase. Temperatures
throughout the long term period will generally be a couple of
degrees above climatology through Thursday and then near normal
late in the period due to increased convective activity.


[Through 12z Monday] Convection is still active at this early hour
around VLD and not too far from TLH. Expect this convection to
diminish by sunrise with mainly VFR conditions prevailing after
sunrise. However, another afternoon of scattered convection is
expected across the area today.


Wave periods will continue to be a little higher than normal (6-7
seconds) with a broad area of breezy southeast winds over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. This should maintain seas around 3 feet
offshore and to the west of Apalachicola. The winds and seas
should diminish closer to normal summertime levels around Monday
Night or Tuesday. Some 2 foot surf is likely again today, with 3
foot sets likely in Walton County and perhaps western Bay County.
Active rip currents will be possible - particularly from Panama
City Beach and points further west.

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days with no fire weather concerns.


River levels will remain at their below normal levels into next
week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  73  96  74  95 /  50  40  30  30  30
Panama City   92  77  91  77  91 /  50  20  30  10  30
Dothan        95  73  96  74  96 /  50  40  30  20  30
Albany        96  73  97  74  96 /  50  50  30  20  30
Valdosta      95  72  96  73  95 /  50  50  40  30  30
Cross City    94  73  94  72  94 /  50  40  30  30  30
Apalachicola  91  76  91  77  91 /  40  10  30  10  30


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...





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