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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 051430

1030 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

There is a cut-off low in the upper levels east of Jacksonville.
This low is vertically stacked with a weak low at the sfc. This
feature will slowly move east today. However, low level moisture
will be high again today.

Drizzle will continue until around noon for the Georgia counties and
the Florida Big Bend area. This afternoon, there is a slight chance
of rain showers for the eastern half off the region. Skies will be
mostly cloudy today. Highs will be mostly in the low 70s.


.Prev Discussion [620 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Upper level low that has been sitting over the Southeast for a few
days will be situated over the Atlantic east of Florida at the start
of the short term. Although moisture isn`t impressive there is still
a slight chance that the far northeastern part of the CWA could see
a rain shower. GFS and NAM Bufr soundings show layer of low level
moisture indicating the low clouds will continue to be in place
Monday night. Also could see some areas of drizzle again similar to
what we have seen recently, but confidence isn`t there to mention
that in the forecast grids yet.

Moisture will begin to decrease more on Tuesday as the upper low
lifts northward over the Atlantic and weak upper ridging builds in
on Wednesday. This results in a decrease in cloud coverage for the
rest of the short term with the chance of precipitation less than 15

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Weak ridging is in place at the beginning of the long term and the
dry trend across the CWA will continue through at least Thursday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with a cold front
pushing into the Southeast at the end of the week. This sinks into
the tri-state region over the weekend and may help to provide a
little more emphasis for precipitation but overall models are
still on the drier side with the front.


[Through 12Z Tuesday] Although there was some variability, the
overall trend so far this morning was for IFR cigs with periods of
MVFR Vis in -DZ. The areas of -DZ will gradually taper off from
west to east this morning, followed by slowly-improving cigs to
MVFR levels by afternoon. GFS MOS takes cigs down to IFR levels
tonight, while the NAM MOS and dynamical guidance show a modest
improving trend. The GFS low-layer isentropic fields forecast
ascent to end later this morning, but maintains ample moisture in
the boundary layer, so it`s unclear where such a clearing trend
would come from. We will blend the two solutions and forecast
low-end MVFR cigs for the overnight period. Fog is unlikely due
to above- normal nocturnal wind speeds, and drizzle seems unlikely
given the net downward vertical motion.


Northerly winds will continue today and become more northeast
mid-week. Wind speeds will remain at cautionary levels today but
will weaken for tomorrow onward.

.Fire Weather...

Red Flag Warning conditions are not expected for the next several


The Choctawhatchee River is nearly steady at Bruce and will begin
to decrease Monday night. The crest is about a foot and a half
above action stage.

Elsewhere rivers remain well below action stages and with little or
no rainfall expected over the next few days, there are no flooding
concerns across the region.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  62  83  60  84 /  20  10  10  10   0
Panama City   73  63  81  64  83 /  10  10   0  10   0
Dothan        71  61  80  59  83 /  10  10   0  10   0
Albany        70  62  80  57  83 /  30  10   0  10   0
Valdosta      71  62  82  58  84 /  30  10  10  10   0
Cross City    78  63  82  61  85 /  20  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  74  64  80  64  81 /  20  10  10  10   0





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