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Area Forecast Discussion

738
FXUS62 KTAE 252334
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
734 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...

SHRA/TSRA will diminish this evening, followed by VFR conditions.
The consensus of NWP guidance forecasts IFR (or worse) Vis and/or
cigs developing between 09Z and 12Z east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, affecting KTLH, KVLD, and KABY.
Of these, we are most confident in LIFR cigs/IFR Vis at KVLD.
Conditions will improve by mid morning, followed by numerous TSRA
in FL, affecting KECP, KTLH, and KVLD in the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [328 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered storms are developing as expected along the seabreeze
fronts this afternoon. Slightly more than expected activity is seen
across GA and AL in the broad synoptic ascent region of the upper
low centered over the Florida panhandle. Gusty winds will still be
possible in isolated storms associated with the seabreeze fronts,
though further inland strong storms are less likely. Convection over
land should come to an end by 10 PM or so tonight. Storms will shift
to the coastal front over the water later tonight.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

An upper low just north of the Great Lakes will drop slowly
southward deepening the east coast trough through the period. At the
surface, a weak cold front will approach from the northwest pushing
into our area late Tuesday/Tuesday night. This will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day with PoPs in the 30-50% range.
By 12z Wed, the front will roughly be on a line from Albany, GA
to Panama City with the noticeably drier airmass still north and
west of our CWA. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The east coast trough will continue to deepen Wednesday through the
remainder of the work week as the upper low drops southeastward to
the mid-Atlantic states. The trough begins to de-amplify as the low
lifts northward into New England over the next weekend. The
surface front will move to our south and east by Wednesday with a
drier airmass overspreading the region along with cooler nighttime
temps in its wake. Dew points and min temps are forecast to drop
into the 50s throughout the area Thursday night. Some low level
moisture will return over the weekend but little if any rain is
expected at this time.


.MARINE...

Winds will be light (less than 10kts) and variable through Tuesday
and then become more northerly for the second half of the week
with a weak frontal passage. Seas will be one foot through
Wednesday and then increase to two to three feet by the end of
the week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Light winds will keep daytime dispersion values unusually low
through Tuesday across much of the region.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rain is expected for the next few days, but significant rainfall
amounts and not expected and thus flooding is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  90  71  89  70 /  40  40  20  40  30
Panama City   75  86  73  86  72 /  40  40  20  30  30
Dothan        70  90  67  89  66 /  20  40  30  40  20
Albany        71  90  68  89  67 /  10  40  20  40  20
Valdosta      70  88  68  89  69 /  30  50  10  40  20
Cross City    71  88  69  88  71 /  20  30  10  40  30
Apalachicola  75  85  73  86  74 /  40  30  20  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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