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Area Forecast Discussion

117
FXUS62 KTAE 181435
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1035 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Deep layer ridging over the southeastern CONUS will allow the
sea-breeze to be the main driver of our local weather today. The 12Z
TAE sounding showed 1000-700mb flow was from the west at over 10
knots, which is our regime 5 sea-breeze pattern. The PWAT value of
1.85", which is 98% of the normal value. Overall, we`re expecting a
pretty typical regime 5 day, with chances for afternoon
thunderstorms highest over north Florida, but with slightly more
coverage than normal for this pattern over our southeast Alabama
counties to account for storms coming into the area from the west.
Highs today will be in the mid 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]  Showers and thunderstorms today will affect
ECP, TLH, VLD, and DHN and then clear out in the evening. Winds will
generally be from the west at 10 kts or less, with gustier winds
during thunderstorms.

&&

.Prev Discussion [307 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A fairly potent shortwave will pass through northern Georgia on
Tuesday. A spoke of energy extending south of the main shortwave
is forecast to spread into the forecast area by afternoon. This
energy should help to somewhat counter the otherwise less
favorable westerly low-level flow pattern to generate scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Despite the scattered storms, the
westerly low-level flow will support temperatures in the mid 90s
during the afternoon.

Overall precip coverage will likely be lower on Wednesday as the
low-level flow becomes more northwesterly as the mid-level ridge
builds just west of the forecast area. The northwesterly flow will
be warmer as well, with mid to upper 90s expected for afternoon
highs.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Through much of the extended period, high pressure will shift
northward/inland from the Gulf, shifting the winds from westerly
to northwesterly and then variable. This will mean even less
moisture transport, keeping PoPs slightly below climo for this
time of year. Temperatures will be warmer than normal, with highs
reaching the mid to upper 90s and lows only dipping into the mid
70s.


.Marine...
High pressure will remain situated over the central Gulf through
this week, keeping winds out of the west of southwest and
generally below 15 knots outside of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. No headlines are anticipated this week.


.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals through Tuesday are expected to range from

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  76  94  75  97 /  50  10  40  30  40
Panama City   93  79  91  78  92 /  40  20  30  20  20
Dothan        94  74  93  73  96 /  40  20  40  20  20
Albany        95  74  94  75  97 /  40  20  30  20  30
Valdosta      96  73  93  74  96 /  40  20  40  30  30
Cross City    94  75  93  74  94 /  40  10  30  20  20
Apalachicola  90  79  91  77  92 /  40  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN






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