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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 021319

919 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As the remnants of Erika move through southern Georgia today, a
plume of tropical moisture will remain in place over the eastern
half of the area. A sharp gradient in PoPs will occur again today,
ranging from just 20% across the western portions of the area to
around 70% across the east. Daytime highs will be warmer across the
west with less cloud cover compared to the east.


.Prev Discussion [325 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

Most of the tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Erika
will have moved to our east by Thursday. PoPs will be highest (40%)
mainly over our Florida zones due to the sea breeze. On Friday,
instability will increase as an upper trough digs down into the Tri-
state region. Will show uniform PoPs at 40% which is around climo
for early September. Temps will also be above seasonal levels with
highs in the lower to mid 90s both days.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The 00z GFS and latest ECMWF continue to show a broad area of lower
500 mb heights over our region through Monday before higher pressure
and a drier airmass build in by Wednesday. PoPs will be around to
slightly above average (40-50%) through Tuesday with below seasonal
Pops on Wednesday (30%). Temps will be near average, with lows in
the 70s and highs near 90.


[Through 12z Thursday]  VFR conditions will prevail with the
exception of a few hours of MVFR due to fog at VLD this morning.
Greatest chance of rain will be at VLD, TLH and ABY today.


The weak low center that was once associated with Erika is moving
inland along the Wakulla County coast early this Wednesday morning
and winds and seas have diminished below headline criteria across
Apalachee Bay. Winds and seas will be quite low through the
remainder of the week and the upcoming holiday weekend.

.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns for the next several days.


The heaviest and most organized rain is expected across portions of
the FL Big Bend from this evening through Wednesday. Rain amounts
will be around an inch east and south of Tallahassee, and less than
a quarter of an inch elsewhere. Isolated rain amounts up to 4 inches
are possible, which could cause localized flooding if it occurs in
the wrong place (i.e. urban areas, small streams, etc.). Our rivers
were all below their local action stages, and the latest hydrologic
ensembles forecast this to continue for the next several days.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   90  74  94  73  94 /  50  30  40  30  40
Panama City   87  77  89  75  89 /  30  10  40  20  40
Dothan        93  73  93  71  93 /  20  10  40  20  40
Albany        90  74  94  72  94 /  40  10  30  20  40
Valdosta      88  73  93  72  94 /  70  30  40  30  40
Cross City    90  74  92  73  92 /  40  30  40  30  40
Apalachicola  89  77  91  76  90 /  30  20  40  30  40





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