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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 261403

903 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Upper
level ridging currently dominates the southeast states with
surface ridging off the east coast providing easterly flow to
the area. High temperatures are expected to be in the 70s this
afternoon across the area.


.Prev Discussion [636 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Upper level ridging will remain in place over the northern Gulf
coast with lower level high pressure over the southeast and mid-
Atlantic seaboard. Winds will stay generally east-northeasterly
through the period and temperatures will warm to the mid-upper 70s
during the day under partly cloudy skies, dipping into the mid-upper
50s overnight.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

An upper level +PV anomaly will swing from the southwestern states
northeastward toward the Great Lakes early next week, developing a
surface cold front out ahead of it. Since most of the energy driving
this system will be well to our north, chances for rain will remain
low, around 20%, early in the week. Highs will be in the low-mid 70s
through Monday. Colder temperatures will start to make their way
into the area again on Tuesday, with lows dipping into the 60s in
our northwestern zones. Lows will stay mostly in the 50s.

[Through 12Z Friday]...

Low clouds have been slow in pushing across the area from eastern
Florida. It does appear though that the low clouds should edge
into VLD over the next hour. As they have been approaching TLH,
the clouds have been dissipating but with a more defined area to
the east, the low clouds may still make it to TLH by mid-morning.
While the low clouds should not make it to the other TAF sites,
low clouds will be possible again Friday morning.


A tightened pressure gradient will remain in place through Friday
morning, keeping easterly winds around 20 knots. Winds will lower to
cautionary levels Friday, falling below headline criteria Saturday.
Winds will remain east-northeasterly through the period.

.Fire Weather...

RH values are expected to remain above 50 percent today and
tomorrow and thus there are no fire weather concerns at this


The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce has crested and will start to
fall over the next few days. However, the river will remain above
action stage through at least the end of the month.

With no significant rains anticipated for the next several days,
there are no flood concerns.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  59  78  58  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   75  60  74  59  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        72  55  73  54  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        73  55  74  52  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  58  76  56  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    79  60  78  59  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  76  61  75  59  74 /   0   0   0   0   0


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday FOR Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.




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