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Area Forecast Discussion

406
FXUS62 KTAE 011722
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
122 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon, with the exception of ECP
with MVFR cigs. The cig heights will continue to improve through
the afternoon though. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible at the northern TAF sites through the evening, mainly DHN
and ABY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1016 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis depicts a large, positively tilted upper level
trough stretching from the southwest states northeastward to the
Great Lakes. Ridging prevails off the southeast coast with light
southerly 1000-700 mb mean winds. This has been providing a moist
boundary layer with relatively high dewpoints for this time of year
and isolated to scattered afternoon convection, which is more
typical of summertime. For today, there is not much change in the
large scale pattern expected with the latest ensemble of CAM
guidance placing isolated to scattered convection (20-30 percent
PoPs) across the northern half of the area this afternoon. Afternoon
high temperatures will generally range from 85 to 90 across the
area, except a couple of degrees cooler right along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

An upper level trough and associated cold front will advance
eastward with the front pushing into and across our FA Monday
night and Tuesday. The deepest moisture will remain to the north
and west of the Tri-state area Monday so kept PoPs mostly in the
chance range (30-40%); highest north. For Tuesday, the ensemble of
CAMS increase PoPs to likely and categorical for a large portion
of our FL and GA zones. While not as robust, MOS PoPs have trended
higher this run. Will show PoPs mostly in the good chance to
likely range (50-60%) with the highest across our FL and southern
GA zones where the front should interact with the seabreeze. High
temps will range from mid 80s west to around 90 east Monday and
around 80 west to mid 80s east on Tuesday. Lows both nights in the
mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The long wave trough over the eastern CONUS will deepen as a
strong upper low dives southeastward from just north of the Great
Lakes Tuesday night to the mid-Atlantic states Thursday. The low
is forecast to become cutoff and spin over or just east of the
Delmarva Peninsula through the next weekend setting up an Omega
Block pattern across the CONUS. As this pattern change evolves,
the aforementioned surface front will push well to our south with
rain ending from west to east on Wednesday. A secondary dry cold
front will push down from the north and through the region
Wednesday night/Thursday. The remainder of the extended period
will be dry with near to just below seasonal temps with deep
northwest flow in place. Highs will range from the upper 70s to
lower 80s through Saturday and then the lower to mid 80s Sunday.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s through Friday night and then mid to
upper 50s Saturday night.


.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue through Monday before shifting
to the west then northwest Tuesday and Tuesday night as a cold
front passes through the local waters. A secondary cold front
will approach and push through the eastern Gulf Wednesday and
Thursday with winds and possibly seas elevating to cautionary
levels.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level later tonight or Sunday. Rainfall
amounts for the upcoming week are not expected to be particularly
heavy or widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  87  69  84  63 /  10  30  20  60  40
Panama City   70  80  71  79  65 /  10  20  20  60  30
Dothan        66  85  67  80  59 /  30  40  30  50  30
Albany        67  87  67  82  60 /  30  40  30  50  30
Valdosta      67  90  68  85  63 /  20  40  30  60  40
Cross City    67  87  69  85  66 /  10  30  20  40  40
Apalachicola  69  81  71  80  66 /  10  20  20  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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