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Area Forecast Discussion

187
FXUS62 KTAE 050809
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
409 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE AGAIN TODAY. LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL TRANSPORT
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AM DISCOUNTING THE GFS WHICH
BRINGS SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS LOCALLY
WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE
LOCALLY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR LOWS...EXCEPT MID 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN
THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE PATTERN MAY START TO BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE AGAIN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED.
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
POPS STILL APPEAR TO BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 10 TO 12 KNOTS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
BE ONE OR TWO AIRPORTS THAT EXPERIENCE BRIEF IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT FOG
LATE TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

EASTERLY WINDS RANGING FROM CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVELS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL
EASTERLY WIND SURGE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY LOWER WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DEEP MIXING AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE DISPERSION VALUES TO
BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL DECLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  63  88  62  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
PANAMA CITY   81  64  83  64  82 /   0  10   0   0  10
DOTHAN        83  60  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALBANY        83  60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      85  61  87  61  86 /  10   0  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    83  61  88  61  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  82  65  83  66  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...TD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...TD
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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