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Area Forecast Discussion

707
FXUS62 KTAE 240124
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
925 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
STEADY EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ARE
BELOW NORMAL, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND NO RAIN CHANCES.
HOWEVER, ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST BIG BEND COUNTIES, MOISTURE LEVELS
ARE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE
REACHES THE GULF COAST. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER LAND
AREAS TONIGHT, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF.

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...
UPPER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND A BUILDING RIDGE
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG (1030MB) HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, KEEPING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE.

FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SURGE OF EASTERLIES PUSHING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST. EXPECT TO SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES (VERSUS TODAY) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EASTERLY
SURGE. WITH ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO INITIATE UNTIL MID/LATE
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S.

FOR MONDAY, UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE ADDITION OF SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL HELP TO BOOST POPS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE EASTERN HALF WILL
SEE MUCH LESS COVERAGE GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE.

BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
DEAMPLIFY WITH WEAK FLOW AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO A RETURN TO MOSTLY SEABREEZE DRIVEN AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION AND WARM MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST, MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT SURGES WILL
PUSH CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS BY MID-WEEK, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE RH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE MINIMUM CRITERIA...DISPERSION
INDICES WILL BE WELL OVER 75 ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGH
TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH AREA RIVERS AT NORMAL FLOW LEVELS AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
NOT EXPECTED, FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  90  72  89  71 /   0  20  20  30  30
PANAMA CITY   72  87  73  86  74 /  10  20  30  30  30
DOTHAN        66  89  70  88  71 /   0  20  20  50  30
ALBANY        65  89  69  90  70 /   0  20  20  40  30
VALDOSTA      66  90  69  91  70 /   0  30  20  30  20
CROSS CITY    69  92  70  91  70 /  10  40  20  20  20
APALACHICOLA  75  88  76  86  75 /  10  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...CAMP



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