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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 042334

634 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

[Through 00Z Saturday]...

High clouds are still stretched across the VLD...ABY...TLH area
but skies will continue to clear overnight. VFR conditions are
forecast through the TAF period. Winds will be from the northwest
to north around 5 to 10kts.


.Prev Discussion [334 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The Noon EST regional surface analysis showed a slow-moving cold
front from just offshore SC through north FL. The radar mosaic
showed an area of light to moderate rain from Tallahassee
eastward, and the back edge of this rain will be east of our
forecast area by evening. Clearing skies and a drying airmass will
allow temperatures to cool into the 30s overnight, but with the
surface high centered over LA, winds are unlikely to be calm. Thus
we leaned a little more toward the warmer guidance, with lows
mostly in the mid 30s. However, a BRIEF light freeze is possible
in the normally colder locations in southeast AL and south GA.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Cool high pressure will settle in over the area on Friday, keeping
highs in the 50s, with low Saturday morning reaching the lower to
mid 30s. A strong (but moisture-starved) shortwave will approach
on Saturday, leading to an increase in high clouds and sparking
cyclogenesis off the east coast of Florida. A shower or two is not
out of the question over the far eastern zones, but rainfall
amounts will be very light. Temperatures will once again reach the
lower to mid 30s Saturday night.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The extended period will be dominated by a deep mean trough over
the eastern half of the country. This will support several shots
of cold air and keep temperatures below normal through most of the
week. The initial shot of cold air will arrive behind a frontal
passage on Monday. Ahead of the front, temperatures should
approach 60 degrees. Behind the front, forecast 850mb
temperatures and the depth of the 500mb trough would suggest
colder temperatures than currently forecast. However, the
associated surface high is not particularly strong (1030mb), which
suggests that the low- level airmass may not be excessively cold.
With this in mind, have kept high temperatures in the upper 40s to
lower 50s from Tuesday forward, with lows in the upper 20s and
lower 30s.

Strong offshore flow will continue overnight before decreasing on
Friday as high pressure builds over the local waters. Winds and
seas will diminish through Saturday before increasing again on
Sunday as low pressure develops off the east coast of Florida. The
strong north to northwest flow will continue through early next

.Fire Weather...
Drier air will move into the area for Friday with RH values
dropping into the mid 20s. Despite this, fuels are wet and thus
Red Flag Warning criteria will not be met. Moisture will begin to
increase for the weekend.

Rainfall has ended over the western half of our forecast area and
will continue to gradually dissipate over eastern portions of our
area through this evening. Within the last 24 hours, the entire
forecast area has received at least 1-2" with large swaths receiving
3-5", causing widespread rises along our area rivers and streams.

At least minor flooding is expected throughout the lower
Choctawhatchee Basin in the coming days, with moderate flooding
possible this weekend at Bruce.

Routed flows down the Chattahoochee River (and anticipated inflows
from the Flint in the next 2-3 days) will result in increased
releases from Woodruff Dam, sustaining the minor flood levels at
Blountstown for the foreseeable future.

Within the Flint basin, steady rises continue in the Kinchafoonee
and Muckalee Creeks. Expect the Kinchafoonee to reach minor flood
stage later today. Upstream rainfall above Lake Blackshear doesn`t
appear to have been significant enough to result in downstream
flooding below Lake Blackshear through Newton. However, near the
bottom of the basin, Bainbridge may near flood stage early next

The 2-4 inch rainfall totals in the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee
River basins may finally result in the Georgia forecast points on
these rivers reaching flood stage for the first time this winter
season by the end of the week. Further downstream into Florida,
flooding is not expected.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  56  34  57  35 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   37  54  38  56  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        32  54  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        32  54  32  55  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      33  54  34  55  36 /  30   0   0  20  20
Cross City    34  57  37  58  37 /  50   0   0  20  20
Apalachicola  37  55  38  57  40 /  10   0   0  10   0


FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Coastal

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
     FOR Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday FOR Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.




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