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Area Forecast Discussion

808
FXUS62 KTAE 271059
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
659 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...
VFR conditions to prevail with only a slight chance of any impacts
from afternoon thunderstorms. Winds will be light out of the south
or southwest.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [233 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Sfc/upper trough which was over the central Gulf Coast on Tuesday,
is progged to lift northward today into Arkansas. Coincident
with this, the subtropical ridge is forecast to build westward
from the Atlantic. This will result in less low/mid-level moisture
today, which should limit afternoon convection. Overall PoPs will
be less than Tuesday, with isolated storms expected over the east,
and low-end scattered PoPs over the west. With lower coverage of
convection, expected high temperatures to be a few degrees above
Tuesday`s values.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature through the
short term with below average rain chances as it builds across
the area. Given the below average convective coverage, afternoon
high temperatures are expected to be slightly above average with
mid to upper 90s for highs. For the most part, max heat index
values are expected to remain below the 108 degree level needed
for a heat advisory, although some areas will be in the 104-107
range on Thursday and Friday.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Upper ridging is expected to weaken slightly as a weak upper
trough moves through the Ohio Valley this weekend. Afternoon
thunderstorm chances are expected to be close to average for this
time of year at 30-40% across most of the area through the period.
By the end of the period, the 00z GFS forecasts PWAT values over
2 inches across most of the area, so convective chances may
increase some by the middle of next week. Seasonably hot
temperatures are expected with mid 90s for highs, mid 70s for
lows, and max heat index values in the 100-105 range.


.MARINE...

Winds and seas are expected to decrease back to typical low
summertime levels today as high pressure builds across the area
with winds less than 10 knots and seas 2 feet or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersion values will be possible away from the coast the
next two afternoons. Otherwise, there are no other fire weather
concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

With a drier pattern expected for the next few days, there are no
flooding concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   95  75  96  75  95 /  20  10  20  10  30
Panama City   89  79  89  79  88 /  20  10  20  10  30
Dothan        93  74  94  73  93 /  30  10  20  10  20
Albany        95  74  97  74  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
Valdosta      95  73  96  72  95 /  20  10  20   0  30
Cross City    95  74  95  74  94 /  20  10  20  10  30
Apalachicola  91  77  91  77  90 /  10  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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