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Area Forecast Discussion

673
FXUS62 KTAE 270528
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
128 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Tuesday]...

LIFR cigs and vsbys have begun to settle in over parts of
SE AL and the N FL Panhandle this morning, with more patchy MVFR
vsbys further to the east in SW GA. Although cigs and vsbys will
bounce up and down through the early morning hours, we currently
expect conditions to remain the worst near DHN (IFR-LIFR), while
conditions near TLH and ABY will be slightly better (MVFR-IFR),
and sites near ECP and VLD may remain unaffected. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible in N FL this afternoon. Current
guidance suggests ECP is the most likely to see storms, though
there is a slight chance near TLH as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [817 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak, quasi-
stationary front from the GA coast through central GA. The
clusters of thunderstorms which developed over our forecast area
this afternoon have weakened into areas of light to moderate
rain, mainly over the FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Farther east,
isolated thunderstorms remain possible for a few more hours, as
there remained sufficient MLCAPE and deep layer moisture. However,
given the CIN in this region from earlier storms, severe storms
are not likely. The rain will end by midnight. With a moist ground
across most of the area, coupled with drying aloft from
Tallahassee eastward, patchy fog will be possible toward dawn.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Upper level ridging across the Southeast will dampen through the
period as a trough amplifies as it moves from the north-central
tier of the country through the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, a frontal boundary will gradually move into the
Southeast, nearing the Tri-State region by Tuesday. Convection
will primarily be seabreeze driven on Monday, and confined mostly
to north Florida in the light northeasterly flow regime. Expect
the highest PoPs south of interstate 10. Storms on Tuesday will
likely be forced by a more active (SW flow) seabreeze regime, as
well as convection dropping into the region from the northwest as
it moves away from the aforementioned front. Isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon in a favorable
thermodynamic environment. In addition to PoP coverage, high
temperatures will likely still run above average on Monday, before
the ridge really starts to break down by Tuesday. Expect upper 90s
on Monday, with lower 90s more common on Tuesday.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The previously mentioned front will linger across the Southeast,
with broad troughing aloft through the period. This will result in
above average rain chances through next weekend, with highs near
normal.


.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail through the week.
Each afternoon winds may increase near the coast to 10 to 15
knots, with a light to moderate chop.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms are likely near the coast on Monday. No
fire weather concerns except for lightning.


.HYDROLOGY...

The next week or so will feature above normal rain chances,
however widespread heavy rain is not expected. Each day, scattered
storms could produce an inch or so of rain, though the likelihood
of one location getting an inch or so of rain each day is low. In
general, river or urban/rural flooding is not expected through the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   96  75  93  76  90 /  30  20  60  40  80
Panama City   89  80  89  78  86 /  50  20  30  40  70
Dothan        96  75  92  74  89 /  20  20  70  40  50
Albany        95  75  93  75  90 /  20  20  50  40  50
Valdosta      96  74  95  75  91 /  30  10  50  50  70
Cross City    94  74  91  76  90 /  50  20  50  20  60
Apalachicola  89  78  88  78  88 /  40  20  30  40  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...McDermott
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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