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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 282328

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
728 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...

VFR conds will prevail into the overnight hours. Much like last
night, there is possibility of MVFR ceilings at the TAF sites from
10-14Z. VFR will prevail after that. Low end probability of
SHRA/TSRA after 18Z for VLD/TLH/ECP. Possible MVFR conds
associated with convection. Left out of TAFs for now based on low



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer ridging is still in place this afternoon with scattered
weak showers developing in the deep easterly flow. This activity
should diminish quickly after sunset, with convection shifting

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Deep layer moisture will gradually increase through the short term
as an area of disturbed weather moves into the Gulf. However,
any significant impacts from this feature are unlikely to occur
until the long term period. On Monday, rain chances will generally
be in the 20-30% range across the area. On Tuesday, chances of
rain are expected to increase into the 40-50% range across the
southeast half of the area as moisture gradually increases. Highs
will generally be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

At first, it seemed like today`s 12z guidance was coming into
pretty good agreement with the area of disturbed weather in the
southeast Gulf. Tracks on the 12z GFS, Canadian, and UKMET were
somewhere in between Destin and Cedar Key. Intensities still
varied quite a bit, but each of those three models showed a well
defined system. Then the 12z ECMWF came in and flipped-flopped
tremendously again, now barely showing any system at all. The
ECMWF`s performance with this system has been very inconsistent,
which is atypical of this model. Its performance was also poor for
the last heavy rainfall event locally. Perhaps its upgrade to 9
km resolution is causing problems with the convective
parameterization in the model, although that`s just a speculation.
At any rate, the official forecast trended towards a wetter
scenario with the potential for the area of disturbed weather to
affect our forecast area by the middle to end of the week,
particularly across the southeast big bend. We continue to want
people to follow this system closely this week as the forecast
continues to be refined.


Easterly winds will continue through early this week with a ridge
of high pressure north of the area. Conditions for the middle
and end of the week will depend heavily on the area of disturbed
weather entering the southeast Gulf of Mexico. The current
thinking is that this system will move in our general direction
during the middle to end of the week with an increase in winds and
seas, but there is still a lot of uncertainty with this system.


Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


There are no flooding concerns through early part of the week. For
the middle to end of the week, the forecast will depend heavily
on the evolution of the area of disturbed weather entering the
southeast Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rain is a possibility across
portions of the area depending on the movement of this system. At
this time the greatest threat of heavy rainfall appears to be
across the southeast big bend, although confidence in the location
and timing remain low.



Tallahassee   76  94  76  93  76 /  20  20  10  50  30
Panama City   77  89  78  89  77 /  30  20  30  40  30
Dothan        73  92  74  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        74  93  74  93  74 /  10  30  10  40  10
Valdosta      73  92  74  92  73 /  10  30  10  50  10
Cross City    74  91  76  90  74 /  10  40  20  50  40
Apalachicola  77  89  78  89  77 /  30  20  20  50  50







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