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Area Forecast Discussion

132
FXUS62 KTAE 200216
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1016 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Current fcst is well on track, and only minor tweaks were made.
Under clear to mostly clear skies and fairly dry air, low temps
should bottom out in the upper 40s to the lower 50s away from the
coast.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Tuesday] VFR conditions with light winds and sct
cirrus are expected to prevail at the terminals through the
period. There is a slight chance of MVFR Vis at VLD late tonight,
but kept the Vis no lower than 6SM for this package.

&&

.Prev Discussion [238 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday through Tuesday night]...
The mean upper trough east of the area will reamplify during the
short range as a shortwave dives southeast and affects the area on
Monday. The lack of significant moisture return should still allow
for mainly dry conditions, although some of the local CAM runs
indicate a few isolated showers may be possible along the coast.
With such a dry airmass in place right now, the official forecast
will limit PoPs over land to 20 percent right along the coast
around Apalachicola and Saint George Island for Monday. The
airmass will modify slightly with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s
on Monday becoming lower to mid 80s on Tuesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.


.Marine...
A brief easterly surge is possible tonight over the eastern waters.
Thereafter, winds and seas will be minimal through Tuesday, before
northeasterly flow increases again mid-week.


.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will be fairly low over the
next several days, it will not be quite dry enough to cause any
fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  81  56  85  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   59  80  61  82  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
Dothan        50  78  52  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        48  79  52  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      52  81  56  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    55  84  58  85  54 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  60  79  62  81  59 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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