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Area Forecast Discussion

147
FXUS62 KTAE 021232
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
832 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES WERE NECESSARY THIS MORNING, SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS
BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [243 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
THROUGH MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. A
COUPLE OF MODELS SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SUPPORT FOR THIS SEEMS LOW
GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY SHOWS 10
PERCENT CHANCES AT THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
A QUIET WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
EASTERLY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] UNLIMITED CIGS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE.


.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT...EASTERLY NOCTURNAL SURGES IN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THESE SURGES...CAUTIONARY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BRIEF ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.


.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE REGION.
HOWEVER, RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
AND SUFFICIENT FUEL MOISTURE.


.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THESE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW TIME FOR OUR AREA RIVERS TO RECEDE BACK TO NORMAL FLOW
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   83  53  85  59  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
PANAMA CITY   77  58  80  62  80 /   0   0  10  10  10
DOTHAN        82  55  83  59  82 /   0   0  10   0  10
ALBANY        81  54  83  57  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      83  54  85  57  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
CROSS CITY    83  53  84  56  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  76  58  79  63  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



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