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Area Forecast Discussion

988
FXUS62 KTAE 300748
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
348 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND
NORTH TEXAS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SPC HAS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE IN A MARGINAL RISK TODAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE UPPER 70S...DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THEY WILL REACH THE LOW 60S. WITH THE
LACK OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ECPECT STORMS TO BE ISOLATED
RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD. SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS
SHOW STORMS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z AND ENDING BY 00Z.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

WE EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL ROUGHLY EAST TO
WEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A MINOR SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER OUR REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING WITH IT A SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30
PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH LIKE WE EXPECT THIS
AFTERNOON...MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL BE UNUSUALLY
STEEP...WHICH COULD HELP PROMOTE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL GROWTH.
THE FORECAST 0-6 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KT...WHICH IS ON THE LOW
SIDE BUT NOT PROHIBITVE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THUS WE CAN NOT
RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.

AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN (20-30 PERCENT). A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NOTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY... WITH LOWS NEAR 60 AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

FAST ZONAL (AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT) FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH A FEW FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR REGION. THE
MOST PRONOUNCED OF THESE WILL BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THOSE APRIL FRONTS
THAT LIMPS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE LEFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH NOT
EXCEPTIONALLY SO...WITH LOWS AROUND 60 AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
LOWS AROUND 60 SATURDAY...THEN LOW TO MID 50S (BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT) SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR AT DHN THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILINGS
AND VISBILITY IN THESE STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE LEVELS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE HIGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO
HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS. THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS MORNING...AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO THIS WEEK AS WE ARE NOT FORECASTING ENOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THEIR STAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   79  57  80  60  82 /  30  20  20  10  30
PANAMA CITY   74  63  74  65  75 /  30  20  20  10  20
DOTHAN        78  55  79  61  79 /  50  20  30  20  30
ALBANY        76  52  79  59  79 /  50  10  20  30  30
VALDOSTA      78  54  79  59  80 /  30  20  20  20  30
CROSS CITY    76  57  79  60  81 /   0  20  10  10  20
APALACHICOLA  75  64  75  65  77 /  20  20  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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