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Area Forecast Discussion

268
FXUS62 KTAE 241324
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
924 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

No changes needed to current forecast package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [631 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Stacked high pressure will remain in place over the northern Gulf
coast today. Low level flow from the southwest will help advect some
Gulf moisture to the area, but with weak western and northern flow
aloft, model precipitable water values remain in the 1-1.5" range,
which is about 75% of normal for our area for this time of year.
Because of this dry airmass in place over north Florida, we don`t
expect much in our area in terms of thunderstorm coverage, however,
there will be about a 20% chance for thunderstorms just east of our
area over the Florida Peninsula, so there is a very small chance
(less than 10%) that an isolated storm may make it into the
eastern Big Bend in the afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Mainly dry conditions will persist through Saturday night as the
upper level ridge remains in place and relatively low PWAT values
(near 1.5" or less) persist over our area. A few isolated
showers/storms can`t be ruled out across the eastern Big Bend and
parts of SW Georgia on Saturday afternoon, when instability is
maximized. Moisture will increase on Sunday afternoon, with PWAT
values approaching 2". Although no upper level forcing will be
present, the sea breeze along with increased moisture and
instability should be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of our area on Sunday afternoon and
early evening. Saturday looks like the hotter day with highs in
the upper 90s, possibly approaching 100 in some locations, but
increased humidity on Sunday with highs in the mid-90s should
allow the heat index to reach/exceed 100 on both days. Lows in the
low-mid 70s are likely during this period.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible
through this period, with chances highest each afternoon and early
evening due to the diurnal sea breeze circulation and maximized
instability during these times. An upper level ridge will be
present early in the period, along with some relatively drier air
in place on Monday due to light northeasterly flow. As a result,
it looks like precipitation coverage on Monday may be more sparse
than the remainder of the week, when increased moisture will
return to our area. By the middle of the week, an upper level
trough will dip into the southeastern CONUS along with a quasi-
stationary front at the surface stretching across central AL and
GA. These features could slightly enhance coverage of showers and
storms across our area, especially across SE AL and SW GA.
Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist during this
period, with highs in the low-mid 90s and lows/dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]...

Expect VFR conditions through at least 09Z with light (less than 10
knot) west winds. Our local hi-res ensemble is showing a 20% chance
of IFR visibilities developing across the Florida Big Bend in the 09-
12Z time period, but confidence is too low at this time to include
it in this TAF package.


.MARINE...

Light winds generally from 5-10 knots will persist over the
northeastern Gulf for the next several days, resulting in light
seas of 1-2 feet or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected today and Saturday with
more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms returning on
Sunday. Relative humidity values will remain above critical
thresholds through the period.


.HYDROLOGY...

Little rain is expected through the first half of the weekend. After
this, significant rainfall amounts are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   96  73  98  74  96 /   0   0  10  10  50
Panama City   87  76  87  77  88 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dothan        95  72  97  74  96 /   0   0  10  10  40
Albany        97  73  99  75  95 /   0   0  10  20  40
Valdosta      96  72  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  10  50
Cross City    94  73  94  74  93 /  10   0  10  10  50
Apalachicola  89  75  88  76  89 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barry
NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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