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Area Forecast Discussion

081
FXUS62 KTAE 311519
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1119 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Some models are still indicating the potential for some isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the northeast part of our area this
afternoon and early this evening - particularly NMM-core WRF
models. Our local WRF-ARW and the HRRR do not generate much
convection, and most of the larger scale models don`t show much
QPF either. The latest objective RAP analysis shows an area of
weak convergence and a surface dewpoint gradient very near I-75.
Given that there is a focus for some convective development later
this afternoon, we will maintain around a 20% PoP near I-75.
Otherwise, it looks to be another dry and mostly sunny day with
highs in the low-mid 90s. The inherited forecast is generally on
track, so only minor tweaks were made to account for the latest
observational data.

&&

.Prev Discussion [314 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

After a dry Thursday, rain chances will begin to increase in advance
of an amplifying longwave trof. Even though PWATs are forecast to
remain below climatological levels in FL, there will be enough
moisture in our AL and GA counties to yield 30-50% PoPs. For Florida
locations, dry air will take another day to moisten as deep-layer SW
flow does not becoming fully established until Friday afternoon.
Saturday will have rain chances returning to normal area-wide as
moisture will be at seasonal norms. Temperatures for the period
follow closely with PoPs. Most rain free areas will see low to mid
90s on Friday, while AL and GA counties will likely see low 90s
before the onset of convection. On Saturday, low 90s are expected
CWA-wide. Low temperatures will return to a seasonable level.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper
level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the
central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This
will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early
next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2"
(slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would
expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the
low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which also
tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to
Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with
slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90.


.Aviation...
[Through 12z Friday]

Outside of passing CI decks from time to time and possibly a sct
CU field, expect VFR conditions with light winds to continue
through the period. Some of the guidance did indicate a brief
possibility of MVFR conditions at VLD overnight tonight, but did
not believe confidence was high enough to include it at this time.


.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions are forecast with low seas and winds
through the period.


.Fire Weather...

With increasing moisture and rain chances over the next several
days, no fire weather concerns are expected.


.Hydrology...

All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low
flow stage. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average, so
no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  69  94  71  93 /   0   0  20  20  40
Panama City   88  74  88  75  88 /   0   0  20  20  30
Dothan        90  69  92  71  92 /   0  10  40  20  50
Albany        91  69  93  71  92 /  20  20  50  30  50
Valdosta      96  69  95  71  92 /  20  20  30  20  50
Cross City    93  69  92  71  92 /  10  20  20  20  40
Apalachicola  89  70  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN/MOORE






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