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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 241944

244 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
With the center of the surface ridge north of the area, easterly
flow will continue overnight with a gradual increase in clouds and
low level moisture. Overnight lows will not be as cold as the
previous two nights, generally in the low to mid 40s, except near 50
across the southeast big bend.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
High pressure will remain centered well to the northeast of the
region through the short term period. Moderate easterly flow will
return Atlantic moisture to the region, resulting in scattered
afternoon cloudiness but also warmer temperatures. Expect high
temperatures to gradually warm a few degrees each day, with highs
on Thursday reaching the mid to upper 70s across the region. Only
the NAM brings a few light showers from the Atlantic late in the
afternoon both Wednesday and Thursday. With the Euro and GFS dry,
will keep rain chances 10 percent or less during the short term

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
High pressure at the surface will weaken as a frontal system
moves into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys on Friday
afternoon, but a rather strong mid and upper level ridge across
the Eastern Gulf of Mexico will slow the southward progress of
this system and actually keep warm and dry weather in place across
the region through early Sunday. Thereafter, the models diverge a
little on whether cool high pressure will surge back into the
region from the NE or the region remains in moist southerly flow
ahead of the next developing storm system across the Plains. For
now, have trended toward a warmer solution, which keeps
temperatures several degrees above normal through the period and
rain chances low. By the tail end of the period, it does appear
like a frontal system will approach the region Tuesday night into


[Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected. Some increase
in cloud cover is expected through the period, but ceilings are
expected to remain VFR.


An extended period of advisory level easterly winds is expected
through at least Thursday night and possibly into Friday before
the large ridge of high pressure will north of the marine area
weakens. By the weekend, lighter winds and seas should return to
the forecast.


.Fire Weather...
There are no fire weather concerns for the next several days.


With no significant rains expected for the next several days,
there are no immediate flood concerns. The lower Choctawhatchee
River will remain at action stage below Caryville for the next
several days.

On the Apalachicola River, releases from Woodruff will continue to
decrease through the week, so expect the Blountstown point to drop
below action stage early this weekend.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  70  55  77  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
Panama City   50  72  56  76  59 /  10  10  10  10  10
Dothan        43  67  52  73  56 /  10  10  10  10  10
Albany        42  68  52  72  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      47  71  55  77  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
Cross City    51  75  57  80  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
Apalachicola  53  71  59  76  60 /  10  10  10  10  10


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday FOR Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.




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