National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

197
FXUS62 KTAE 181859
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
259 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The long wave pattern this afternoon features a big upper low off
the Pacific NW coast, a ridge over the Rockies and a trough over
eastern North America. The flow remains broadly cyclonic over the
Southeastern states with some weak impulses of energy moving
through it. A more substantial short wave is noted over eastern TX
and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface analysis shows the
subtropical ridge axis extending westward from the northern Bahamas
across the FL Peninsula and central Gulf of Mexico. A cold front
extends from the central Appalachians southwest across the northern
gulf states to TX. Radars show generally isolated thunderstorms
moving across the region. Overall, the severe weather threat still
looks rather low for the rest of the day into the evening with weak
deep layer flow and mid level lapse rates. SPC has a fairly large
portion of the Southeast in a 5% risk area, which looks reasonable.
PoPs tonight will range from likely (60) northwest to 20 southeast.
Overnight lows will be just a couple of degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Friday]...
Weather will be a bit unsettled for the rest of the week as a slow
moving surface front, extending e-w across the Appalahachians today,
sags swd into the area tomorrow and Thursday. This front will
stall generally e-w across far srn GA/nrn FL and provide a focus
for higher PoPs each afternoon. Have upped PoPs a bit given the
location of the front and the potential for a weak surface wave to
form along it, which will support scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. Overall severe threat will remain low with
little or no shear and weak lapse rates, however an isolated
microburst could not be ruled out Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the lower 90s
and lows around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
Pattern will support seasonal conditions through the early part
of next week with afternoon highs inland in the lower 90s along
with a chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each
day. Overall, rather benign mid and upper level pattern is
expected to become established by the weekend and result in little
day to day change.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 18Z Tuesday]...
The primary concern for the remaining afternoon and evening hours will
be scattered thunderstorms currently moving across our forecast
area. The second concern will be in the early morning hours before
sunrise where IFR CIGs and patchy fog are expected. Forecast
confidence in bringing terminals down to LIFR at this time is low,
so will defer to the evening and/or overnight TAF package. VFR
conditions should prevail shortly after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge of high pressure, which will extend from the
western Atlantic Ocean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will keep
winds light to moderate out of the southwest until Wednesday night,
with the strongest winds over the nearshore legs with the afternoon
Sea Breeze. Then, a cold front approaching from the northwest will
cause a temporary shift in the winds to light offshore, before it
stalls out and weakens in our vicinity on Thursday. Thereafter, a
new ridge of high pressure will build in to our northeast, giving
us lighter winds out of the east and southeast, with a continuation
of the low seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will remain
above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No problems are anticipated in the near future.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  91  72  90  69 / 20  60  40  50  30
Panama City   77  90  73  89  73 / 30  60  40  30  30
Dothan        74  90  71  92  71 / 60  50  30  40  20
Albany        74  90  71  92  71 / 50  50  30  40  20
Valdosta      73  90  70  92  70 / 30  60  40  50  30
Cross City    73  92  71  91  69 / 20  50  30  40  30
Apalachicola  77  90  72  88  71 / 20  50  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM/FIRE WX...Wool
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...Evans
MARINE...Gould
AVIATION...Wool/Navarro