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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 301932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
332 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Upper level ridge axis shifts eastward tonight over the Atlantic and
northeast CONUS while a cold front across the plains this afternoon
slowly shifts eastward into the MS valley. This afternoon, showers
and thunderstorms have developed over the eastern portion of the CWA
where dew points have climbed into the 70s. Hi-res models have
pegged this area with the higher PoPs and with this forecast package
have increased and expanded the PoPs for this afternoon slightly.

A much broader area of showers and thunderstorms was located across
Louisiana this afternoon. As these storms move eastward, guidance is
consistent with the storms weakening as they reach the western CWA
border. Although storms will be on a weakening trend, some of these
decaying storms have the chance to reach the far western area so
have also increased PoPs across that area for tonight.

Another warm night is expected with above normal low temperatures
for Sunday morning, around 10-15 degrees above normal.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A rather flat upper-level ridge will continue over much of the
Southeast through Monday. Heights will begin to lower Monday night
with an approaching trough and surface cold front. The ensemble of
CAMs, which has performed extremely well thus far in this summerlike
synoptic pattern, has similar PoPs for Sunday and Monday afternoons.
It has the highest PoPs (around 40%) across portions of south AL and
south central GA, where the thermodynamic profiles are more
favorable for deep moist convection. Although there may be some weak
Q-G forcing, most of the forcing will be diurnally driven, coming from
the sea breeze fronts. Unusually warm and humid conditions will

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The global models are in good agreement in developing an upper-level
long wave trough over the eastern CONUS. A surface cold front will
move through the forecast area on Wednesday, bringing an end to the
rain from west to east during the day. Fair weather is expected for
the remainder of the week as our region becomes situated beneath
dry, sinking, northwest flow on the west flank of the quasi-
stationary upper trough. Cooler temperatures, that is, a return to
average, will begin on Thursday, with lows in the 50s and highs in
the lower 80s. The humidity will also be significantly reduced.


.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Scattered clouds around 4kft are building across the area this
afternoon and in addition, the high clouds will increase throughout
the day. Isolated TSRA is possible this afternoon with the greatest
chance at VLD. Storms west of the area that push eastward tonight
should diminish as they get to the western sites and thus no mention
of TSRA at ECP or DHN in the 18z TAFs. Fog is expected again
tomorrow morning.



A high pressure system will remain centered over the western
Atlantic, providing relatively light onshore winds across the
coastal waters through Monday. Despite the rather light winds,
seas will be in the 2 to 4 feet range as longer-period swells
develop in the long southerly fetch.



No concerns.



Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level later tonight or Sunday. Rainfall
amounts for the upcoming week are not expected to be particularly
heavy or widespread.



Tallahassee   69  88  66  88  68 /  10  10   0  20  20
Panama City   71  81  70  80  70 /  10  10  10  20  20
Dothan        68  87  66  85  66 /  20  30  20  30  30
Albany        68  88  67  87  66 /  30  30  20  30  40
Valdosta      68  88  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  40  30
Cross City    68  87  67  87  68 /  10  10   0  20  10
Apalachicola  71  81  69  81  70 /  10   0   0  10  20



FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for South




SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier

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