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Area Forecast Discussion

379
FXUS62 KTAE 280120
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
920 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...

Not much in the way of changes to the near term grids tonight. Did
expand slight chance POPS to cover our northeastern Georgia
counties for the next several hours, as the latest radar imagery
shows a few showers and thunderstorms developing in this area.
Otherwise, the forecast looks to be in good shape for tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [725 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Mid and upper level dry air advecting into the area from the
northeast has kept convective coverage much less than yesterday so
far this afternoon. This is expected to continue through the
remainder of the afternoon with only isolated to scattered
convection expected with the best chance along the Florida
panhandle seabreeze. Overnight lows are generally expected to be
in the low to mid 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The upper-level ridge responsible for our recent stretch of hot
weather will be just about flattened out on Tuesday as troughing
overspreads the eastern half of the country. At the surface, a
decaying frontal boundary will be slowly moving into the Southeast
on Tuesday, and will likely linger as a weak front or trough
through at least the end of the week. Whether the front reaches
the Tri-State region or not, convection moving off the front will
likely reach our GA counties late each afternoon or evening. In
addition, the Gulf coast seabreeze fronts will result in
scattered storms across north Florida each day. All in all, PoPs
will remain above average through the short range period, with
high temperatures falling to near normal (low 90s). An isolated
strong storm or two will be possible each day.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

As mentioned above, a frontal boundary will be lingering in the
Southeast, through at least Friday, resulting in higher than
typical PoPs. Thereafter, zonal flow aloft and surface ridging
will favor the more seasonal seabreeze PoPs. High temperatures
will remain near normal through the end of the week, but may creep
up a little above normal by the end of the weekend.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

VFR conditions expected to prevail. Hi-res guidance continues to
indicate a chance of fog tonight. However, given the lack of
rainfall across the area today, any fog is anticipated to be
patchy with vsbys mainly staying AOA 6 SM. However, vsby trends
should be monitored into the overnight hours.


.MARINE...

In general, light winds and low seas will prevail. The main
exception will be enhancements in winds and chop near the coast
each afternoon in the seabreeze zone.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

On average, about 2" of rain is expected regionwide over the next
5 to 7 days. That essentially means that there will be enough
storms around each day that just about everywhere will see one or
two storms that could produce an inch or two of rain by the time
the week is up. Isolated higher amount are certainly possible in
areas getting more than a couple storms, though flooding is not a
concern at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  95  75  90  75 /  20  50  30  50  30
Panama City   78  87  78  86  77 /  20  20  30  40  30
Dothan        74  91  74  91  73 /  20  50  50  40  20
Albany        74  93  74  91  74 /  20  50  60  40  30
Valdosta      72  94  74  90  73 /  20  40  50  50  30
Cross City    73  93  75  91  75 /  20  40  20  30  20
Apalachicola  76  89  78  86  78 /  10  30  20  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pullin
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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