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Area Forecast Discussion

820
FXUS62 KTAE 261740
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions will continue through this period. Easterly winds
around 10 knots with a few higher gusts will occur this afternoon
and early evening, decreasing to around 5 knots overnight through
Saturday morning. Only a few mid-high level clouds are expected
across our area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1137 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

No significant changes were made to today`s forecast; generally dry
conditions are still expected inland, while isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur offshore. A surge
of increased moisture will move into the eastern Big Bend region
this afternoon, and some hi-res models develop scattered
convection as a result (mainly across Dixie County), so added low
chance PoPs in this area during the afternoon and early evening.
Highs will be in the mid 90s inland, with lower 90s expected along
the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Low/mid level ridging will prevail through Saturday while an upper
level +PV anomaly (currently over north-central Florida) rotates
north out of the Southeast. Another area of elongated +PV over the
west-central Atlantic will consolidate in the northeasterly flow
on the eastern periphery of the ridge, and move southwest to the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast on Sunday. A slightly more moist and
unstable airmass with this wave will allow for its effects to
start breaking down at least the mid-level ridging along the
Eastern Seaboard.

Below seasonal moisture levels will continue through Saturday,
limiting PoPs to the southeast Big Bend, and even there below
climatological normals. With more typical moisture expected on
Sunday, expect slightly more coverage of storms. The strong
easterly flow will place the highest PoPs on Sunday across north
Florida and extreme south-central Georgia, especially across the
Suwannee basin. Highs each afternoon will likely be in the lower
to middle 90s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The long term forecast remains complicated by a tropical wave that
is currently between the Bahamas and Cuba. Models once again are
having more run to run inconsistencies and continue to differ
between each other as well. There is fair agreement that the wave
will move through the Straits of Florida this weekend, and into
the Gulf by early next week. The main differences this morning
between the GFS and the ECMWF have to do with just how strong and
how far west the aforementioned consolidating upper-level +PV
anomaly moves. It appears as though because the ECMWF is stronger
and further west with this feature, it is able to loosely link up
with the developing tropical wave and pull it northeast across the
FL peninsula after entering the Gulf on Monday. Conversely, the
GFS keeps these two features separate, allowing for the wave to
continue drifting into the Gulf. The finer details regarding the
timing, track, intensity, and subsequent impacts remain incredibly
uncertain and varied. Folks along the entire Gulf coast should
continue to pay close attention to the forecasts, remaining
prepared for possible tropical cyclone development over the next
several days.


.MARINE...

Overnight surges in easterly winds to at least cautionary levels
will continue for the next several days. The best chance for
showers and storms will also be overnight, moving from east to
west. Mariners are urged to pay close attention to the forecasts
for early next week as the potential exists for tropical cyclone
development in the northeast Gulf.


.FIRE WEATHER...

High dispersion values are possible today across inland portions of
the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Otherwise, no fire weather
concerns, as RH values will stay well above critical thresholds.


.HYDROLOGY...

Flooding will not be a concern through Monday, with only scattered
storms expected starting this weekend. Thereafter, rainfall
amounts and subsequent flooding concerns will be completely
dependent on the eventual evolution of the previously mentioned
tropical wave. The potential certainly exists for heavy rainfall
across the entire area, possibly for several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  93  75  93  75 /  10  20  10  30  20
Panama City   77  89  77  89  77 /  10  20  10  30  20
Dothan        70  92  73  92  73 /   0  10   0  10  10
Albany        70  94  73  94  73 /   0  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      71  93  74  93  73 /   0  20   0  30   0
Cross City    74  93  75  92  74 /  20  30  10  40  10
Apalachicola  79  88  78  89  77 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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