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Area Forecast Discussion

293
FXUS62 KTAE 220031
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
831 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
There is not much to discuss for the overnight hours with mostly
clear skies, light winds, and overnight lows ranging from the mid
60s inland to near 70 at the beaches.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Tuesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period. Skies will be mostly clear overnight with
light winds. During the afternoon hours on Monday, some
scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected
along an approaching cold front with the best chances at ABY, DHN,
and ECP.

&&

.Prev Discussion [328 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A PV anomaly on the back side of a mid-upper level trough in the
western Great Lakes will quickly dig southeast - amplifying into a
sharp shortwave trough over the Southeast US by 00Z Tuesday. This
will aid in driving a surface cold front south into our area
tomorrow afternoon. Both 12Z operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF
indicate moderate-strong QG forcing tomorrow afternoon, and the
GFS has trended towards a more amplified wave (similar to
yesterday`s ECMWF solution). With greater deep layer forcing in
both models, they now both indicate greater QPF, and we bumped
PoPs up into the 30-40% range north of Interstate-10. There should
be a narrow ribbon of low-mid level moisture ahead of the
advancing front, so showers and thunderstorms should develop in a
zone relatively close to the boundary. The GFS and NAM both
indicate potential for MLCAPE along the front of 1000-1500 j/kg
with effective deep layer shear close to 30 knots. Thus we can`t
rule out the possibility of some stronger storms along the front.

The front will push through most of the area Monday Night, and
then stall and dissipate near the southern portions of our
forecast area Tuesday. Clearing skies behind the front, and the
arrival of a drier air mass, will lead to cooler lows in the
northwest half of the area Monday Night - some upper 50s will even
be possible in southeast Alabama. Tuesday will see a continuation
of near or slightly below normal temperatures with a small chance
of some lingering showers south of I-10.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

A ridge of surface high pressure is still expected to set up from
the Northeast into parts of the Great Lakes through much of the
extended forecast period. This will set up a long stretch of east
to northeast low-level flow in our forecast area and the entire
region. Slightly below normal temperatures will continue under
that pattern. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday
and Thursday, with increasing rain chances toward the weekend as
an upper level trough is forecast to develop along the Gulf coast,
and deeper moisture advects back into the area.


.Marine...

Much of the period will be dominated by east to northeast flow
with occasional SCEC headline conditions for winds of 15-20 knots.
Under such flow patterns, winds tend to peak from the overnight
hours into the mid-morning hours over the coastal waters.


.Fire Weather...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected for the next
several days with moisture slowly on the increase.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall amounts should be fairly light over the next several
days, with some areas possibly remaining dry. Later in the week
into next weekend, rain chances will be on the increase, but
flooding of mainstem rivers or widespread flash flooding is not
expected at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  92  66  87  66 /   0  20  20  20  20
Panama City   73  90  68  87  69 /   0  20  20  10  20
Dothan        66  88  60  84  63 /   0  30  10  10  10
Albany        66  88  62  85  63 /   0  40  10  10  10
Valdosta      63  91  64  86  65 /   0  30  20  20  20
Cross City    64  90  66  88  67 /   0  20  20  30  30
Apalachicola  69  88  71  85  72 /   0  10  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/GOULD






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