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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 250736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
336 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A weak upper level low continues to slowly drift westward over the
tri-state region tonight, yielding scattered thunderstorms over
Apalachee Bay at this hour. The 00Z TAE sounding showed an overall
increase in moisture throughout the column as overall flow has
shifted to southerly this evening with the westward movement of the
low. The increase in moisture will yield greater instability values
across the region this afternoon, and when coupled with a more
active sea-breeze will yield higher shower and thunderstorm chances.
POPs across the region range from 30 to 50% today, with the most
likely area for activity existing in the sea-breeze convergence
zone. While severe weather is not expected, the strongest storms
will be capable of locally heavy rainfall, small hail and briefly
gusty winds.

Afternoon high temperatures will generally run a few degrees
cooler across the region today, with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

A weak upper level low is situated across the western portion of
the CWA but this will shift eastward during the short term as an
upper level trough approaches. Associated cold front stretched
across the Midwest to southern Plains will move into the southeast
on Monday. This will help to enhance PoPs with a 30-50% chance on
Monday. This enhanced PoP trend will continue into Tuesday as the
front doesn`t push into the CWA until late Tuesday. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Cold front is across stretched across the CWA on Wednesday and
will finally start to see the lower dewpoints (50s) push into the
northwest part of the CWA behind the front. Front moves east of
the CWA Wednesday night with PoPs decreasing and drier air
continuing to push in. PW values will drop to around half inch for
Thursday and Friday. Between this and dewpoints in the 50s, should
see dry and pleasant days behind the front on Thursday and Friday.
High temperatures will be slightly lower for the second half of
the week, with highs in the 80s.


.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the period. VLD
and TLH continue to have a slight chance for a brief period of
reduced vsby and CIGS around sunrise. Otherwise, expect another
day of isolated SHRA and TSRA across mainly the Big Bend region.
Confidence is currently low in any activity directly affecting TAF
sites. Brief vsby reductions and gusty winds will be the main
impacts from this activity.



Winds will be light (less than 10kts) and variable through Tuesday
and then become more northerly for the second half of the week
with a weak frontal passage. Seas will be one foot through mid
week and then increase to two feet or less.



No concerns.



Rain is expected for the next few days, but significant rainfall
amounts and not expected and thus flooding is not expected.



Tallahassee   91  72  90  72  89 /  40  30  40  20  40
Panama City   88  74  86  74  86 /  40  20  40  20  30
Dothan        93  69  90  68  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Albany        92  70  90  70  89 /  30  20  40  20  40
Valdosta      90  70  88  69  89 /  40  20  50  20  30
Cross City    90  72  88  70  88 /  30  30  30  20  40
Apalachicola  88  74  85  74  86 /  20  20  30  10  30






NEAR TERM...Pullin

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