« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » TAE Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

246
FXUS62 KTAE 251347
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
947 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EFFECT THE AREA TODAY WITH A ROUND OF
STORMS THIS MORNING, A BRIEF BREAK IN BETWEEN AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHEST IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS ACROSS THE AREA AND MLCAPE
TODAY INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POTENTIAL
THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF OUR INLAND COUNTIES TODAY EXCEPT DIXIE COUNTY. COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FL PANHANDLE WILL SEE THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY]CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS BY AROUND NOON AND REMAIN VFR UNTIL AROUND 00 UTC. AFTER
THAT TIME, LOW CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP AND COULD AFFECT MOST OR ALL OF
THE TERMINALS WITH IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA
WHICH INCLUDES DHN AND ABY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS MAY PERSIST AROUND THE DHN OR ABY
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TODAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [436 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE LINGERING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN STEEP WITH
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND.
THE 00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH FORECAST SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANDHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONG
FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...THUS THE FORECAST
POP IS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SPC OUTLOOK
CALLS FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
WILL EMERGE EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST...GIVING OUR
FORECAST AREA A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
A TRACK TOO FAR SOUTH WOULD LIMIT THE WARM SECTOR AND GIVE US MORE
OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT VS SEVERE STORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF
CUTS THE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP
THE THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND.
THE 00Z GFS MSLP PATTERN LOOKS A BIT STRANGE WITH A LARGE MCS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. THIS MAY BE
FEEDBACK AND COULD BE RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW A BIT TOO FAR
SOUTH INITIALLY. OVERALL...SOMETHING LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS
REASONABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TIMING...PROVIDED THAT THE LARGE MCS DOES NOT DEVELOP LIKE THE GFS
THINKS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.


.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGHER
LEVELS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE GULF COAST STATES WITH INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.


.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SOME WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY. HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AREAWIDE.


.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS PLACING IT IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE
BASINS WITH LESSER IMPACTS AND OTHER MODELS PLACING IT FARTHER
NORTH WITH GREATER IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   87  72  89  70  86 /  30  20  30  20  30
PANAMA CITY   81  73  81  71  78 /  40  20  30  20  30
DOTHAN        84  70  88  65  85 /  70  20  10  10  20
ALBANY        82  70  91  64  83 /  70  30  10  10  10
VALDOSTA      88  71  91  68  85 /  40  30  30  10  20
CROSS CITY    86  73  86  71  82 /  10  30  30  20  30
APALACHICOLA  81  74  83  72  80 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.