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Area Forecast Discussion

579
FXUS62 KTAE 111111
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
611 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail initially today with clear skies.
Late tonight, lower clouds are expected to move into the area with
scattered to broken clouds. In addition some fog is possible.
Right now though there is a good bit of spread between the models
on just how low the cigs and vsbys will be. For now have trended
more on the optimistic side, mainly MVFR range.

&&

.Prev Discussion [351 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Another quiet day ahead as high pressure continues to dominate the
area. The high pressure across the area will weaken slightly though
as the center slides southward. While much of the CWA is below
normal with freezing temperatures this morning, high temperatures
will be on the increase for today with temperatures near normal for
this afternoon. High temperatures will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s, more than 10 degrees warmer than what many places
recorded yesterday.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
High pressure south of the forecast area this evening will move
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Western Atlantic on
Friday. A welcome break from the chilly weather will keep
overnight temperatures only in the upper 40s to near 50.

By Friday, a dry cold front will move into the region as the mid
level flow across the Eastern CONUS amplifies as a trough builds
over the Mid Atlantic States. With little moisture to work with,
this front will only bring a brief return of cooler and drier air
for the region by the weekend. The incoming airmass for Saturday
won`t be especially cold, though cool enough to drop temperatures
on Saturday back below climatology.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
After a quick shot of cooler air early in the weekend, the airmass
will begin to warm and moisten ahead of the next storm system due
to arrive on Monday. Model guidance this cycle differs considerably
with the specifics, if not the timing, of the next system. The
11/00z GFS is much more energetic with the system, showing a
strongly amplified shortwave progressing quickly across the Deep
South. The 11/00z Euro is weaker with a dampened wave forcing a
disorganized system through the region on Monday night. So while
the intensity of the system is uncertain, the timing is actually
pretty good - and good enough to result in an increase in rain
chances this cycle to 50-60 percent Monday night.

After the system passes the region on Tuesday, the pattern across
the Eastern CONUS will begin to shift as surface and deep layer
ridging builds across the region. With no influx of arctic air
behind Monday night`s system, expect temperatures Tuesday and
beyond to be warmer than climatology, with highs throughout the
remainder of the week in the mid 70s and lows in the mid to upper
40s.


.Marine...
High pressure across the marine area will shift east of the area
on Friday. Offshore winds will increase on Friday night behind a
dry cold front. Winds are expected to remain below cautionary
behind this front. The next storm system will approach the region
on Monday evening.


.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will remain in place across the area today and
tomorrow, however RH values will be around the mid 30s or above and
thus no Red Flag Warning is needed. By Saturday, drier air is in
place again and RH values will once again drop into the 20 percent
range.


.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later
today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitcka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   68  50  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  57  67  50  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        66  47  68  42  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  45  68  41  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      65  49  73  45  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  49  72  49  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  56  68  51  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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