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Area Forecast Discussion

328
FXUS62 KTAE 310028
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
828 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A REGION OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A COLD FRONT HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GA AND AL. ISOLATED REMNANT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. EARLIER STORMS DID PRODUCE
SOME MAINLY SMALL HAIL WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE
MIX. POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WE ARE EXPECTING LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
08Z OR SO WHEN MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP. THESE SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND ANY OF THESE COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEY PASS OVER A TERMINAL DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [400 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER FORECAST SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. SPC
HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FOR TOMORROW, WITH WIND AND
HAIL BEING THE GREATEST CONCERNS. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST INLAND AREAS WILL
CARRY OVER INTO WEDNESDAY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE
LOW 60S AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. BY FRIDAY, A
STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION ON SATURDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SUGGESTING ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. THEREAFTER, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL PROVIDE FOR
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON, WARMER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.


.MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN WINDS SHIFTING TO OFFSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT.


.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS. AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.


.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   56  81  62  83  59 /  10  30  20  30  10
PANAMA CITY   62  74  65  75  62 /  20  10  10  20  10
DOTHAN        56  79  60  80  60 /  10  40  30  40  20
ALBANY        52  79  60  81  59 /  10  40  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      53  79  60  80  59 /  10  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    55  80  60  82  59 /  10  20  30  30  20
APALACHICOLA  63  75  66  78  61 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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