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Area Forecast Discussion

541
FXUS62 KTAE 251815
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
215 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1000 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Synoptically speaking, high pressure will prevail over the immediate
Tri-State region today. The one mesoscale wrinkle in the forecast
will be the surface trough currently moving through the northeast
Gulf, sourced from daytime heating over the FL peninsula yesterday.
Guidance suggests that a surge of higher dewpoints from a more
southerly wind component on the backside of the trough will spread
over the Panhandle (west of the river) this afternoon. This surge of
moisture will combine with the Gulf Coast seabreeze to warrant an
isolated (20%) chance of a shower. Otherwise, scattered CU and highs
around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast. Mostly clear
skies and highs in the low to mid 80s should be expected along the
immediate coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

Our forecast area will remain situated beneath the subsidence side
of a skinny upper level ridge that will extend from the Gulf of
Mexico to offshore Cape Hatteras. At the surface, a high pressure
system will be centered off the Mid Atlantic coast. A weak low
pressure system will approach the Southeast coast on Friday. As is
typical of summer, any forcing for deep moist convection will have
to come from the mesoscale. While there will be a sea breeze
circulation each day, deep layer moisture will remain quite
limited, so we only expect isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near average for this time of
the year.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The global models are in good agreement in taking a weak, deep
layer low pressure system to the Southeast coast early next week,
then meandering the ill-defined system. Our forecast area will be
in between this system and a ridge to our west, with weak
subsidence aloft through the period. Much of the deep layer
moisture will remain just east of the forecast area, so our PoPs
will remain at 30% or less through the period, with rain more
probably during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will
continue near their climo values.


.MARINE...

With a high pressure system centered off the NC coast through
Saturday, winds across the marine area will mainly be from the
east to southeast during the overnight and morning hours. An
easterly surge, with winds reaching 15 KT or more, is likely each
night, especially over Apalachee Bay. An onshore sea breeze of 10
KT or less will develop near the coast each afternoon.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. Marginally high dispersion indices should be expected
over the next couple of afternoons.


.HYDROLOGY...

Area rivers will remain below action stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  90  65  89  67 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   70  82  69  82  70 /   0  20   0  10  10
Dothan        66  89  66  88  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        66  89  65  88  66 /   0  10   0   0  10
Valdosta      64  89  62  88  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    62  89  62  89  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  69  83  68  82  70 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Donal
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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