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Area Forecast Discussion

489
FXUS62 KTAE 290115
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
915 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Convection is gradually weakening this evening after a fairly busy
afternoon. However, given the upper trough west of the area, a
few showers and thunderstorms may linger across the area through
the night. An increase in convection is expected around dawn near
the coast with an early start to convection on Saturday spreading
northward. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s are expected.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00z Sunday] VFR conditions should prevail outside of
thunderstorms. Storms will be dying down late this evening, but
will likely get an early start tomorrow in the late morning
hours. Expect scattered thunderstorms at all terminals on
Saturday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [424 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

In the upper levels, there will be weak troughing to the west and
weak ridging to the east. In the low levels, southerly/easterly
flow will bring increased moisture. Therefore, rain chances will
be relatively high this weekend with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. POPs around 60 percent are expected for the entire
region on Saturday, particularly in the afternoon/evening hours.
Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 80s with heat indices in
the low to mid 90s.

On Sunday, low level moisture will decrease in the western part of
the region. POPs will be around 30 percent in the west and 50
percent in the central and eastern parts of the region. Highs on
Sunday will be around 90 with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

Upper level features are forecast to be weak in the extended
period. In the lower levels, TS Erika could begin to affect the
region as early as Tuesday morning. The official NHC forecast for
Erika has the entire Florida Peninsula, the eastern Gulf and the
open waters of the Atlantic east of Florida in the error cone.
There is still a great deal of uncertainty with Erika`s track. If
Erika tracks farther east and remains over open Atlantic waters,
it will not impact the region. If Erika tracks farther west into
the Gulf it could become more of a threat to the Florida
Panhandle. If Erika tracks through the center of the cone, it may
move up the Florida Peninsula as a weak TS. If Erika moves up the
Florida Peninsula, Big Bend Florida and most of the Georgia
counties will see increased rain chances and possibly heavy rain.
If Erika moves into the region from the Gulf, the whole area will
see increased rain chances with heavy rain likely, especially on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Due to the uncertainty of Erika`s track,
the extended forecast also has a great deal of uncertainty. Expect
highs around 90 with heat indices around 100 degrees at times.


.Marine...

Light winds and low seas are expected through the weekend. After
that, it will depend on Erika`s track. No matter the track, at
least a slight increase in winds and possibly seas should be
expected starting next week.


.Fire Weather...

An increase in low level moisture and rain chances for the next
few days will preclude any fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...

With a transition to a wetter pattern beginning today, expect
average rainfall amounts on the order of 1-1.5" over the next
three days. This will have little impact on area rivers. Next
week, the potential for some very heavy rain exists depending on
Erika`s track. At this time, models suggest the possibility for
5-7" over a 48 hour period with Erika. Should the track shift
west, these amounts could spread into the southeast Big Bend and
south-central Georgia. Interests along the Suwannee River are
urged to pay close attention to rainfall forecasts over the next
few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  88  72  90  73 /  40  60  30  50  30
Panama City   75  86  74  88  75 /  40  60  30  30  20
Dothan        71  85  69  90  70 /  40  60  20  30  20
Albany        73  87  71  89  71 /  40  60  30  40  20
Valdosta      73  88  72  90  72 /  40  60  30  50  30
Cross City    74  90  72  90  73 /  40  60  30  50  30
Apalachicola  76  86  75  87  76 /  60  60  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN



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