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Area Forecast Discussion

043
FXUS62 KTAE 270757
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Northeast surface flow and a drier than average airmass for this
time of year will persist across the area today with a notable
exception across the southeast big bend. A weak and elongated area
of low pressure will remain across the Florida peninsula. The
southeast big bend will remain close enough to the deep moisture for
showers and thunderstorms to be likely again this afternoon, but
elsewhere a dry day is expected with afternoon high temperatures in
the mid 90s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

The high amplitude upper ridge centered over the Southern Plains
will flatten as a strong shortwave develops over the Northern Plains
and lifts north of the Great Lakes by the end of the period. The
local region will continue to reside under the eastern periphery of
the mid to upper ridge. At the surface, a trough will continue to
extend across central Florida, while a weak broad area of low
pressure persists over the northern portions of the peninsula. While
moisture gradually increases across the Tri-state region by
Wednesday, the deepest moisture will remain to our south. PoPs will
be highest for Dixie County (40%) Tuesday with 20-30% PoPs
elsewhere. Then on Wednesday, went with a blend of MOS guidance
showing 40% across the board. Leaned toward the hotter MAV temps
showing mid to upper 90s most inland areas both days. Apparent
temperatures may reach heat advisory criteria in some locations
Wednesday afternoon.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The upper ridge amplifies once again as it retrogrades to the four
corners region while a weak trough develops along the Atlantic
seaboard. This pattern is forecast to persist at least into early
next week. At the surface, the aforementioned broad area of low
pressure meanders across our region until it gets absorbed by an
approaching cold front from the northwest late Thursday. The front
is forecast to stall north of our CWA over he weekend but we will
see a return of deep layer moisture along with near to above
seasonal chances for convection through the period. Max temps will
generally be around 90 to the lower 90s with lows in the lower to
mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Tuesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the period. Afternoon convection is expected to be mainly south and
east of TLH and VLD.

&&

.Marine...

A broad weak area of low pressure will persist across the region
through most of this week. Winds will be light and seas low with
the weak pressure gradient.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.
Dispersion values will be on the high side across the Florida
panhandle this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of the region will experience low PoPs the next few days,
except around the Cross City area. Higher rain chances, coupled
with seasonably high Precip Water values (around 2 in) will
result in locally heavy rain mid to late week. However, the MMEFS
from the GEFS, NAEFS, and SREF do not have any of our rivers
reaching their local action stage through the week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  74  99  76  99 /  20  10  30  20  40
Panama City   92  77  94  79  94 /  10  10  20  20  40
Dothan        95  74  99  76  99 /  10  10  20  20  40
Albany        95  74  99  75  98 /  10  10  30  20  40
Valdosta      92  74  99  74  99 /  20  10  30  20  40
Cross City    91  75  93  76  96 /  70  30  40  30  40
Apalachicola  92  78  94  80  92 /  20  10  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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