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Area Forecast Discussion

655
FXUS62 KTAE 040059
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
759 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Fog will be the main concern once again tonight. An area of sea
fog south of Panama City is expected to push inland tonight with
additional fog developing across the remainder of the area with
similar conditions present tonight compared to last night.
Overnight lows will generally range from the mid 50s to near 60.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Thursday] Another night of fog and low ceilings is
expected with a moist environment in place and light southerly
flow. An area of sea fog south of Panama City is expected to
spread inland tonight, and additional fog is expected to develop
across the remainder of the area. Conditions will gradually
improve back to VFR during the day on Thursday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [249 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will continue on Wednesday with above average
afternoon highs. There will be only a slight chance for rain
across the Florida panhandle late in the day as weak isentropic
ascent commences over a shallow cool layer across the Panhandle
shelf waters.

Wednesday night through Thursday will feature a breakdown of the
ridging pattern as a strengthening shortwave (a product of
superposition) moves east out of the Central Plains, amplifying
the northern stream trough. This will gradually move a cold front
through the region primarily on Thursday. The best rain chances
will be along and west of a line from Albany to Apalachicola as
the shortwave will move through the Midwest and Northeast, well
north of our area. Thus, forcing for showers will weaken as the
front moves east.

Temperatures on Wednesday night will be quite mild as advection
fog is expected to spread across the entire Tri-State region. On
Thursday, the front will result in a sharp temperature gradient,
with highs remaining in the low 80s across the Suwannee Valley and
as low as the middle 60s in southeast Alabama. CAA will spread
cooler air through the region on Thursday night, with lows falling
to the middles 30s across southeast Alabama and into the middle
50s near Cross City.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

There continues to be a great deal of disagreement between the GFS
and ECMWF throughout the entire extended period. The GFS is a bit
wetter than the Euro to start as it never fully closes off a low
over the Southwest, and instead brings a wave over the Southeast
late in the weekend. The early handling of the cutoff or more
progressive shortwave feeds back into the remainder of the period.
This results in the Euro bringing another frontal system through
the Southeast early next week (where the GFS does not), and then
some disagreement regarding the timing of another frontal system
mid to late week next week. At this time, expect an unsettled
pattern through the extended with a chance for a couple rounds of
rain.


.Marine...

Fog will remain the primary concern across the northeast Gulf
through Thursday. Although some clearing has taken place today,
expect Apalachee Bay and adjacent offshore waters to fill back in
with fog some time tomorrow. Fog may linger west of Apalachicola
until a cold front scours it out on Thursday. Behind the cold
front an increase in winds to advisory levels is expected. The
headline conditions could last into Friday.


.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.Hydrology...

The only river point remaining in flood stage is the Ochlockonee
River at Havana which will crest at 25.2 feet tonight before it
starts to fall. Rain totals this week should not be high enough to
cause significant rises on area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  82  64  76  44 /  10  10  10  50  30
Panama City   57  70  63  68  42 /  10  20  20  60  20
Dothan        57  76  65  65  36 /  10  10  30  60  10
Albany        57  81  64  71  39 /  10  10  20  60  30
Valdosta      59  84  62  80  46 /  10  10  10  50  30
Cross City    60  81  61  80  54 /  10  10  10  30  30
Apalachicola  58  69  63  71  47 /  10  20  20  50  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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