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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 310205

905 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure dominates the Southern Appalachians tonight. Light
winds and clear skies will allow temps to drop at or just below
the freezing mark over our northernmost zones and the normally
colder locations. Otherwise, mins will be in the lower to mid 30s
except near 40 along the coast.


[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast cycle.


.Prev Discussion [347 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
After a short period of northerly winds behind today`s cold
front, winds will quickly begin veering in approach of our next
system. This frontal system will come from a shortwave currently
entering the Western CONUS near Washington. As this shortwave gets
advected southeast into a subtle Eastern CONUS trough, it will
begin to amplify the parent trough. As the trough amplifies,
surface cyclogenesis will initiate late Saturday night over the
Central Plains and high pressure, currently over us today/tonight,
will move eastwards. What this means for our area is moderating
temperatures (highs into the mid-upper 60s by Sunday), and
increasing cloudiness as winds turn to the south by Sunday

As the system is passing well to our north, dynamics are not very
impressive for severe weather. In addition, the fast moving
system will provide little time for abundant moisture/temperature
return from the Central Gulf. So for this system we do not expect
severe weather. The GFS, and the Euro, are in fairly good
agreement on this setup. Most of the rain with this system should
hold off Sunday afternoon or evening, but there is a chance we
could see some showers as early as Sunday morning over the western

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Cold front will exit the area early on Monday, with some
lingering showers over the eastern Big Bend to begin the day. A
cooler airmass will move in behind the front. However, with the
upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant cool down is not
anticipated. The next system will bring rain to the area by
Wednesday into Thursday as a cut-off low over the southwestern
states ejects into the Western Gulf. At the moment, most of the
guidance keeps the associated surface low just offshore, which
will limit any severe threat. However, a good soaking rain does
appear to be in the cards. Another shot of cooler air will follow
this system for the end of the week.

Winds are forecast to remain below headline criteria through early
Sunday. Southeasterly winds will increase on Sunday, possibly
reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria briefly. Winds will shift
to the north on Monday behind a cold front with another brief
period of Small Craft conditions possible. Winds and seas will
begin to diminish by Tuesday.

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week. However,
dispersion will be high for most of the region on Sunday.

River flooding from last week`s heavy rainfall is ending this
morning with all of the river points below flood stage.

The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring
widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These
amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels
but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of
the forecast points.

With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early
next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the
stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday.
While timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain,
the general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event
that will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next
week or weekend.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   35  61  43  66  58 /   0   0   0  30  50
Panama City   40  59  50  66  59 /   0   0  10  50  50
Dothan        34  57  42  63  53 /   0   0  10  60  60
Albany        31  57  39  65  55 /   0   0   0  40  60
Valdosta      34  60  42  68  57 /   0   0   0  20  60
Cross City    34  64  44  71  59 /   0   0   0  10  50
Apalachicola  39  58  51  66  61 /   0   0   0  30  50


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...





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