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Area Forecast Discussion

258
FXUS62 KTAE 120837
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front from central GA through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a broad long wave trough over the eastern CONUS, with a
short wave trough diving through the TN Valley. While there may be
some ascent associated with the short wave trough today, deep layer
moisture will be limited, and our PoPs are less than 20%. High
temperatures will be above average, in the lower to mid 70s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region this evening
bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the region for the weekend.
High pressure will build down from the Great Lakes into the
Central Appalachians by Sunday morning. Dry weather is expected
through the short term period.

On Saturday high temperatures will struggle to reach the mid to
upper 50s across the region. Northerly winds will keep drier and
cooler air moving into the region throughout the day.

By Saturday night, another light freeze is possible across the
region. The best chance for freezing temperatures looks to be
along and north of a line to Dothan to Valdosta as the core of the
high pressure area should remain well to the north of the forecast
area.

On Sunday, as the high pressure area moves into the Western
Atlantic the airmass will begin to moist and warm slightly.
Temperatures will return to the low to mid 60s across the region.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
At the start of the long term system, a potent storm system will
be approaching the region from the west. The 12/00z guidance suite
has come into better agreement with the Euro looking much more
like the GFS, showing an energetic shortwave moving through the
Southeast on Monday afternoon/evening. Even though the surface low
should remain north of the region, the airmass is unlikely to
destabilize enough ahead of this system, so severe weather is not
anticipated. Overall event QPF is only in the 1-1.5 inch range,
given that this system will be fast moving.

By Tuesday, the storm system should be moving out into the
Atlantic and drier and slightly cooler weather will be moving in.
Model guidance is in good agreement that the pattern across the
Eastern CONUS will be shifting from a trough early in the week to
a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico by late week. As a result,
expect dry conditions Tue-Fri with temperatures warming a couple
of degrees each day, initially in the mid 60s Tuesday and in the
mid 70s by Friday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Saturday] Low clouds (600-1500 ft AGL) have been
rapidly developing late this evening across south GA & AL and
portions of the FL Panhandle, just south of a quasi-stationary
front. The greatest probability of IFR cigs and/or Vis is at KDHN,
KABY, and KVLD. Cigs/Vis will improve there by late morning. W-SW
winds of 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT will develop by late
morning or early afternoon, then gradually subside during the
evening.

&&

.Marine...
Moderate westerly winds at cautionary levels are expected to
persist through the afternoon across the western waters today.
Winds will shift to offshore and approach advisory levels
overnight. High pressure will build near the marine area by
Saturday evening, resulting in lighter winds. Another increase in
winds is expected by Monday ahead of the next storm system.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Daytime dispersion values may exceed 75 at some sites today. A very
dry airmass will likely send RH values below critical thresholds
Saturday afternoon. However, other parameters (fuel moisture, ERC,
and wind speed) are not expected to meet the local Red Flag
criteria.

&&

.Hydrology...
Outside of the Suwannee River Basin, rivers continue to drop.
Expect the lower portion of the Choctawhatchee River to drop below
flood stage late tonight.

Releases from Woodruff continue to decrease as inflows to Lake
Seminole decrease as well. Releases this morning are dropping
below 45kcfs and projected to level off around 35kcfs by Saturday.
At this rate, the Apalachicola River at Blountstown should
continue dropping and fall below flood stage late Saturday or
early Sunday.

Only the US-84 crossing on the Withlacoochee River remains above
flood stage in that river system. The river should drop below
flood stage there late tonight.

In the Middle and Lower Suwannee, rises will continue as
contributions from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha River reach
Ellaville over the next 36 hours. Peak flow looks to be around
20kcfs or less, so expect all forecast points to stay below action
stage downstream of there over the next week, with the exception
of the US-19 crossing near Fanning Springs, which could reach
action stage around 2/18.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  43  59  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  46  57  37  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        69  38  54  29  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        68  38  54  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  42  57  32  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    72  45  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  48  59  38  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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