« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » TAE Area Forecast Discussion

Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 090712

312 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

An upper level +PV anomaly over the southern Plains can be seen in
the IR and water vapor imagery. This impulse will swing
southeastward today toward the ArkLaTex and begin to push a surface
cold front towards the southeastern states. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms may develop this afternoon out ahead of it as low
level flow becomes more southeasterly and begins to return Gulf
moisture to the area. These storms are most likely to occur in north
Florida and south-central Georgia, where moisture will be highest.
Highs will peak in the low to mid 80s once again today.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Models are generally in good agreement regarding the evolution of
the synoptic pattern through the weekend. The shortwave trough
over the Plains this morning will pass through the Southeast,
cutting off over the western Atlantic on Sunday. At the surface,
the result will be the passage of a cold front on Saturday. Expect
a northeast to southwest PoP gradient, with the highest PoPs
(~40-50%) north and east of a line from Blakely through Cross

Highs on Saturday will range from the low 80s (NE) to the mid 80s
further south across Florida. Lows will likely fall to the upper
50s to low 60s behind the front on Saturday night. On Sunday,
highs will be slower to rebound as a fair amount of cloud cover is
expected across parts of south Georgia and southeast Alabama as
northeast flow pumps moisture into the region. Across Florida,
expect highs around 80 degrees on Sunday.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Expect the aforementioned cutoff low to be absorbed into the
northern stream flow by mid-week as another shortwave trough
moves through the Southeast. In its wake, a broad northern stream
trough will cover much of the CONUS. At the surface, dry weather
will continue with only a slight chance of rain with the front
on Tues/Wed. Temperatures will generally be around seasonal
averages, possibly a degree or so cooler on both ends.


[Through 06Z Saturday]

With mostly clear skies, light winds, and returning moisture to
the area, MVFR-IFR conditions will be possible at most terminals
this morning. Conditions should improve to VFR by around 14Z at
all sites, except possibly VLD. Showers are expected this
afternoon-evening at TLH and VLD. Overnight, ceilings and
visibilities may lower once again, but timing is likely just
outside the period of this TAF package, so left it out for now.



A weak easterly surge will keep winds around cautionary levels
this morning (primarily east of Apalachicola), before weakening
early this afternoon. Thereafter, winds and seas will be
relatively low. Expect winds below 15 kts and seas below 2 feet
over the next several days.


.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain above red flag criteria through
the period. Dispersions will be low today with very light transport
winds. Patchy fog and low ceilings are expected Friday and Saturday



Rivers remain well below action stages and with minimal rainfall
expected over the next few days, there are no flooding concerns
across the region.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   86  67  84  61  81 /  30  30  30  10   0
Panama City   82  69  82  62  78 /  30  10  20  10   0
Dothan        85  64  81  57  77 /  10  20  20   0   0
Albany        84  66  81  58  76 /  10  20  40  10   0
Valdosta      85  68  82  61  78 /  30  30  40  20  10
Cross City    87  69  82  61  81 /  30  30  30  20  10
Apalachicola  81  70  81  64  78 /  20  10  20  10   0





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.