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Area Forecast Discussion

003
FXUS62 KTAE 270538
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
138 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [952 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An isolated shower of thunderstorm is possible through this evening.
Otherwise, dry conditions with lows in the lower to mid 60s inland
and around 70 along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Expecting a dry and seasonably warm end to the work week, as the
region remains under the influence of a broad upper level ridge.
Although moisture will be limited, cannot rule out a stray afternoon
thunderstorm along the seabreeze, particularly in the western part
of the forecast area near Panama City. Afternoon high temperatures
near 90 inland, with lows in the mid 60s.

Global models remain in general agreement with keeping low pressure
currently north of the Bahamas well to the east of our forecast
area. As a result, not expecting much in terms of impacts locally.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The upper level trough associated with the tropical wave off the
northeast coast of Florida will remain over and just east of the
Florida peninsula with ridging on either side of it-over the Gulf of
Mexico and the Atlantic ocean. This trough will lift northward
slowly through the period up to the mid-Atlantic coastline. The
National Hurricane Center shows the tropical disturbance has a 70%
chance of formation over the next 5 days, however the most direct
impacts from this system will most likely be felt well to our east-
over the coastlines of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states.
Local chances for rain will remain low, in the 20-30% range through
the long term period. Warm temperatures will prevail with highs in
the low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to around 70.


.MARINE...

High pressure will remain in place over the northern Gulf through
the weekend with easterly surges in winds over our eastern waters
during the overnight periods and onshore winds  along the coast in
the afternoon periods. Starting early next week, winds from the west
will prevail. Seas will remain 3 feet or less for the next several
days.


.FIRE WEATHER...

It will continue to be very warm with a dry air mass from Friday
into Saturday. However, relative humidity will remain above 30
percent and red flag conditions are not expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

With prevailing dry conditions, local rivers will remain below
action stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  66  91  69  92 /   0   0  10  10  10
Panama City   81  70  83  71  85 /   0   0  10  10  10
Dothan        88  65  88  66  91 /   0   0  10   0  10
Albany        89  64  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10  10
Valdosta      87  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10  20
Cross City    89  64  90  67  90 /   0   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  82  70  83  70  85 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Moore/Bennett
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Lamers
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Lamers



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