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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 310128

928 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Most of the convection today was east and south of the forecast
area as an upper level low lifting northward brought some drier
mid and upper level air into the area. Expect a similar trend
tonight with mainly dry conditions except for a slight chance of
convection across the eastern fringe. Overnight lows will mainly
range from around 70 to the mid 70s across the region.



[Through 00z Tuesday] Some MVFR to IFR conditions are possible
late tonight with brief low cigs and/or a bit of patchy fog for a
few hours. Most of the convection that develops on Monday is
expected to be east and south of the TAF sites.


.Prev Discussion [344 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A weak trough aloft over the western Gulf and ridge near Bermuda
will keep south-southwesterly deep layer flow, which will
stretch and steer moisture from the remnants of Erika through
Tuesday night. The weak area of low pressure is very disorganized
and, in an unfavorable environment aloft, unlikely to redevelop,
though we will likely see some showers and thunderstorms from it
over the eastern third of our area. Most of this moisture will be
focused over the Florida Peninsula, keeping the highest rainfall
totals to our east. Locally, the highest rainfall is expected in
the southeast Big Bend with totals around 1-2" expected and
isolated totals around 3-5" possible. Since we`ve dried out over
the past few weeks, the area should be able to handle these
totals, although ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage
areas may occur. The western portions of our forecast area will
see more isolated convection and highs rising into the low 90s and
overnight lows in the low 70s. Over the portions of the area more
likely to see effects from the remnants of Erika, temperatures
will struggle to try to reach 90 and lows will dip into the low-
mid 70s.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The weak trough aloft will shift eastward slowly toward the
central Gulf, pushing the upper level ridge eastward as well.
This very slight pattern shift will allow mid-upper layer flow
from the south to continue, keeping the area warm and moist. This
continued presence of moisture will keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the 20-40% range through the long term period,
with the highest chances over the eastern Big Bend and south
central Georgia, where low level flow from the east is expected to
bring some late season east coast sea-breeze storms in over the
late afternoon/evening hours.


Winds will remain 10 knots or less and waves around 2 feet or
less outside of thunderstorms through the weekend.

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


Rainfall totals over the next 5 days may be up around 2-3" in the
southeast Big Bend with isolated areas receiving higher totals.
This is not expected to cause significant rises along our area
rivers, which are currently at normal levels, although it may
cause isolated pockets of flooding, especially low lying areas
with poor drainage.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  92  73  92  75 /  10  30  10  30  20
Panama City   75  88  75  89  76 /  10  20  10  20  20
Dothan        70  91  72  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        72  90  72  91  74 /  10  30  10  20  10
Valdosta      72  89  72  90  73 /  40  40  10  40  20
Cross City    74  89  75  89  75 /  50  60  20  50  20
Apalachicola  75  90  75  90  77 /  20  30  20  30  20


FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal




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