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Area Forecast Discussion

265
FXUS62 KTAE 221729
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
129 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

SCT TSRA continues to develop along the sea-breeze and will spread
inland this afternoon, with southern sites (TLH and ECP) seeing
the best chances. ISO to SCT TSRA remains possible further inland
at DHN and VLD later this afternoon and this evening. Heavy rain
and gusty winds will be possible in and around any storms prior
to them diminishing this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1036 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Basic upper level pattern continues with upper ridge to the west
centered over the Plains with a trough to the east over the
Atlantic. Upper level flow that was north to northwest yesterday
becomes northeast today. While typically being on the periphery of
the upper ridge is conducive for active weather with shortwaves
embedded in the flow, models are not clearly showing a shortwave in
the flow for today across the CWA, like the NAM was yesterday.
Despite this, it should still be an active day across the CWA (but
not as active as yesterday) with the seabreeze kicking off
convection across Florida and then scattered storms developing
across southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. A few storms today
could be strong to severe, producing damaging wind gusts.

Temperatures will once again be in the mid 90s for highs, resulting
in heat indices of 101-105 this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Convection from Friday afternoon should diminish a little quicker
this evening and with coverage expected to be a little less than
Thursday evening, have evening PoPs in the 30 percent range.

For Saturday, it looks like the ridge will be the dominant feature
in our weather pattern for another day. The GFS pulls in some
drier mid level air from the NE and this combined with the
influence of the ridge suggests rain chances should be below
normal on Saturday, in the 20 to 30 percent range. With less
convection, expect afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper
90s.

By Sunday, model guidance shows a weak upper level low initially
off the coast of NE Florida will drift back westward across the
region. This feature will be the focus for afternoon shower and
thunderstorm activity, especially across the eastern half of the
region, where PoPs will be in the 40 percent range.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The weak upper low will slowly move westward across the Northern
Gulf and keep rain chances at or slightly above normal through at
least Wednesday. Thereafter, with the upper low further to the
west and the subtropical ridge building westward into NE Florida,
rain chances should drop off back below normal with afternoon rain
chances in the 20-30 percent range.


.MARINE...
High pressure will remain over the northern Gulf coast. This will
cause light winds of 10 knots or less and seas to be 2 feet or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...
With RH values above critical thresholds, hazardous fire
weather conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rainfall on Thursday resulted in a few spots of
flooding due to the slow moving thunderstorms. The heaviest rains
of 4-5 inches in just over an hour across Jackson/Houston
Counties will result in some modest rises (staying below action
stage) on the Chipola River at Marianna in the next couple of
days.

With scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon,
localized flooding is possible with the strongest storms. However,
there are no widespread flood concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  97  75  96  75 /  30  30  10  40  20
Panama City   78  91  79  90  79 /  20  30  10  30  20
Dothan        74  96  74  97  74 /  30  20  10  30  20
Albany        74  98  74  98  74 /  20  20  10  40  20
Valdosta      73  97  73  96  73 /  20  30  10  40  20
Cross City    73  96  74  95  74 /  40  30  20  40  20
Apalachicola  77  92  77  91  77 /  20  20  10  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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