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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 200243

1043 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Yet another very active day across the Tri-State area with
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Many of these storms produced
some of the most numerous cloud to ground strikes of the season
thus far (causing plenty of power outages), along with very heavy
rainfall and minor flooding in a few low lying and poor drainage
areas. Some of the storms were also severe with damaging wind
gusts that have been compiled in a summary LSR (Local Storm
Report). Most of this convection has come to an end except for
some lingering showers over SE AL and the western FL Panhandle.
Used 3 hr PoP groups until 06 UTC to handle this, with silent 10s
still anticipated after 06 UTC overnight. Areas of fog and
especially low clouds will possible late tonight, but confidence
was not high enough to introduce into the grids at this time.



[Through 00Z Thursday] Evening convection is diminishing and should
end by 03z. Overnight as skies clear expect vsby/cig restrictions to
develop at most sites. Potential exists for IFR/LIFR conditions at
VLD/TLH around sunrise. After daybreak, restrictions should end
quickly with VFR by 13z. TSRA coverage expected to be much less on
Wednesday. Seabreeze storms primarily will affect TLH in the
afternoon where a VCTS group was used.


.Prev Discussion [146 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday Night]...
As a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf coast moves inland, we
will quickly start to see drier, hotter weather. With the sea-breeze
still coming into play, we will still likely see scattered coverage
of afternoon thunderstorms, staying mostly in north Florida, but the
chances are lower than they normally are for this time of year.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s across the area Wednesday,
mostly upper 90s on Thursday. Although the airmass in place will be
relatively dry, we`ll still be humid enough to make the heat feel
even more uncomfortable- heat index values will rise to the 100-105
degree range Wednesday, 104-108 Thursday. Lows will only be in the
mid 70s.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
Conditions are expected to stay hot and relatively dry through early
next week as a strong ridging of high pressure builds inland and
stays in place until it begins to weaken late this weekend. A long
stretch of hot days is on tap with highs expected to reach the upper
90s Thursday through Sunday, decreasing only slightly to the mid 90s
Monday and Tuesday when rain chances increase again after the ridge
begins to weaken.

With high pressure over the northern Gulf, winds will generally be
from the west-southwest at 10 knots or less, with surges along the
coastline to about 15 knots in the evenings. Waves are expected to
remain around 2 feet or less through the period.

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

Rainfall totals through the week are expected to be less than an
inch with localized higher amounts possible. With all area rivers
below action stage, no flooding is expected.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  96  75  98  76 /  40  30  20  30  20
Panama City   81  92  78  94  78 /  20  20  10  20  20
Dothan        70  96  75  98  75 /  40  20  20  20  20
Albany        70  97  75  99  75 /  30  20  20  20  10
Valdosta      71  96  74  98  74 /  50  20  20  30  20
Cross City    76  94  75  96  74 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  80  92  76  93  78 /  10  20  10  20  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...





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