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Area Forecast Discussion

002
FXUS62 KTAE 251936
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
336 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing south of
a surface trough across central Georgia will move southeast into
northern portions of our CWA before dissipating this evening. The
best chance for convection will be north of a line from Dothan to
Valdosta. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear with patchy fog
possible in the pre-dawn hours. Lows will be in the middle 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

In general, the upper level pattern across the Southeast will
consist of a de-amplifying ridge as a northern stream waves moves
into the Upper Mississippi Valley. The only wrinkle will be a weak
shortwave moving south through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
tonight, entering the Southeast tomorrow. At the surface, a
frontal boundary was analyzed across central SC and northern GA
amid high pressure. Convection tomorrow will likely be forced by
both the upper wave and the surface front, and should begin across
our south Georgia counties, moving south-southwest through AL and
FL through the late afternoon. PoPs are forecast well above
normal tomorrow, in the 60-80% range. A consensus of the global
models as well as local and regional hires models would suggest
that the typical summertime severe weather parameters would favor
the potential for scattered strong to severe storms in the form of
damaging winds. While lapse rates are forecast to marginally
steep, the anomalously warm temperatures through the troposphere
will likely limit any severe hail threat. On Monday, the front
will be dissipating if not completely gone and the northeasterly
flow regime combined with near seasonal PWATs would favor a
typical regime 2 seabreeze with highest coverage south of
interstate 10 in Florida. All in all a much more wet couple of
days are expected than has been the case recently. Afternoon highs
are still forecast to be unseasonably high, reaching the upper 90s
area-wide on Sunday, before beginning to return to normal levels
to start the work-week.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The aforementioned northern stream wave, responsible for dampening
the ridge, will move slowly across the eastern half of the country
through next week. This will force a frontal boundary into the
Southeast, increasing rain chances. We`ll likely fall into a
pattern where storm complexes develop upstream along the front and
move into our region late each day, or if the front makes it far
enough south, storms will just form along it each afternoon across
the Tri-State region. Aside from the surface forcing, the presence
of a trough across the Southeast in the summertime, will likely
force at least a scattering of convection each day. In general,
PoPs are forecast to be above average, with high temps near
average each day.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing
ahead of a front in central Georgia will move southeastward through
this evening and may briefly impact the DHN, ABY and VLD terminals.
Overnight, a brief period of MVFR VSBYs is possible at VLD.
Otherwise, VFR conditions and light or calm winds will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected for the next
several days. The only exception will be near the coast each
afternoon in the seabreeze zone. Here, expect winds to peak around
10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  98  74  94  75 /  10  60  50  40  30
Panama City   77  90  78  89  79 /   0  20  30  40  30
Dothan        74  98  74  95  75 /  10  60  30  30  30
Albany        75  97  74  94  75 /  30  70  50  30  30
Valdosta      74  96  73  95  74 /  20  80  50  30  30
Cross City    74  95  74  91  75 /  10  60  50  50  40
Apalachicola  76  90  77  89  78 /   0  10  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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