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Area Forecast Discussion

299
FXUS62 KTAE 281328
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND ADJACENT SECTION OF SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE STILL EXISTS. DRIER AIR OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THERE.
THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SHOWS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6.4C/KM...SO AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. STORMS MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AGAIN...SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREAS WHERE STORMS DEVELOP.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY] SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KECP
AND KDHN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [652 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST. SOME LOW (20-30%) POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER
THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT OTHERWISE A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS THE DRY
AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODIFY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION, DEEP BUT WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD
LEAD TO INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS RAIN CHANCES. WE DID NOT
INTRODUCE ANY LIKELY (60+ PERCENT) POPS INTO THE FORECAST YET, BUT
THE RAIN CHANCES WERE BUMPED UP TO 50 PERCENT ALONG TYPICALLY
FAVORED SEA BREEZE ZONES DURING WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIMES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


.MARINE...

THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS WITH BOTH SUBSIDING AFTER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ONE MORE DAY OF HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
TODAY OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. SOME ISOLATED URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING CAN`T BE
RULED OUT, BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LEADING TO
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LOWER AVERAGE RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   88  68  92  68  92 /  20  10  10  10  20
PANAMA CITY   83  72  84  71  85 /  60  10  20  10  20
DOTHAN        85  67  89  67  89 /  70  20  20  10  20
ALBANY        89  66  90  66  90 /  20  10  10  10  20
VALDOSTA      91  64  91  66  91 /  10   0  10  10  30
CROSS CITY    90  63  91  67  91 /  10  10  10  10  30
APALACHICOLA  82  72  86  72  85 /  50  10  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS



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