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Area Forecast Discussion

514
FXUS62 KTAE 250252
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
952 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Southwesterly flow aloft in the right entrance region of a strong
upper level jet continues to help generate showers and isolated
thunderstorms ahead of a slow-moving cold front this evening.
Currently, the main focus has shifted to the southeastern Big
Bend. However, as the night wears on, expect activity to build
westward as the upper trough amplifies and upper divergence
increases. The surface front, currently just entering the
northwestern corner of the forecast area, will slowly move
southeastward through the night, ushering in a cooler low-level
airmass.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday] Improvement in cigs this evening at some
terminals likely to be short-lived as low clouds and rain are
forecast to return to all terminals by sunrise or shortly
therafter. IFR cigs are likely to persist through much of the day
on Tuesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [328 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The front will stall today as mentioned in the near term discussion
and will shift very little through Tuesday evening, finally pushing
eastward late Tuesday night. Since deep layer steering flow will be
from the southwest, a rich moisture plume from the Gulf will
continue to move over the eastern third of our area. Storm total
precipitation will be around 1.75-2.5" in the Florida Big Bend and
in south-central Georgia, 0.5-1.5" in SE Alabama, SW Georgia, and
the Florida Panhandle Tuesday through Tuesday night, with isolated
higher totals possible. With another rainy day on tap Tuesday,
temperatures are expected to stay fairly cool during the day and
relatively warm at night, with highs in the mid to upper 50s, low
60s in the eastern Big Bend, and lows in the 40s, upper 30s in SE
Alabama where colder air will begin to move in overnight behind the
front.

By Wednesday, higher pressure will begin to build eastward and a
cooler, drier airmass will begin to move in, with only slight
chances for rain in our easternmost zones Wednesday morning. Highs
Wednesday will be around 60 and lows Wednesday night will be in the
upper 30s, low 40s along the immediate coastline.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern
states through the long term period. There are no significant
chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and
moisture will begin to increase again early next week ahead of the
next developing cold front. The airmass will be cool and dry
Thursday through Friday, with highs in the upper 50s to around 60
and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the weekend, the airmass will
begin to modify and we will warm up a bit with highs will be in the
mid 60s to around 70 and lows in the 40s.


.Marine...
Winds will ramp up over the western waters tonight, reaching small
craft advisory conditions by early Tuesday morning and affecting
most of our coastal waters by Tuesday afternoon. Overnight Tuesday
night, we may even briefly see gusts to gale force before winds
begin to decrease Wednesday morning. Once winds fall Wednesday, they
are expected to remain below headline criteria for the remainder of
the period.


.Fire Weather...
Very wet conditions will continue through Tuesday night before a
cold front ushers in a drier airmass. Even with the drier airmass,
humidity levels are forecast tor remain well above critical levels.


.Hydrology...
Recent rains are causing rises on most area rivers. A band of
showers and thunderstorms will move east of the area this evening
resulting in a lull in precipitation. However, by midnight steady
rain will begin to move back into the area, becoming moderate at
times late tonight through Wednesday morning. The highest amounts
will be south and east of a Valdosta to Tallahassee to Apalachicola
line, including the Suwanee River basin. Expect amounts of 2 to 3
inches with locally higher totals possible. North and west of that
line total amounts should be much lighter, in the

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   57  57  45  59  39 / 100  80  80  20   0
Panama City   57  57  44  61  47 /  90  70  80  10   0
Dothan        50  56  39  59  39 /  30  50  70  10   0
Albany        51  56  42  59  37 /  70  60  80  20   0
Valdosta      59  59  46  59  37 /  80  80  80  30  10
Cross City    63  67  50  60  39 /  70  80  90  30   0
Apalachicola  58  59  45  61  45 / 100  80  80  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH







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