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Area Forecast Discussion

212
FXUS62 KTAE 211955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MOST OF OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES.
FAIRLY ABUNDANT DRY AIR, EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN NEAR 40 PERCENT FOR FLORIDA ZONES WEST AND
SOUTH OF BLOUNTSTOWN, AND NEAR 10 PERCENT IN GA, AL, AND EAST OF
TALLAHASSEE. MOST STORMS WILL BE FORMING ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS
EVENING, BUT WITH THE ABSENCE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING, AND DRIER AIR
ALOFT, MOST STORMS WILL NOT INITIATE UNTIL AFTER 3 OR 4 PM EDT. NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COULD CONTAIN FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AND VERY SMALL HAIL.

AWAY FROM THE SEABREEZE, AND ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND IN THE LOWER 90S. FOR
TONIGHT, SOME DRY AIR BEHIND A DIFFUSE FRONT WILL ALLOW N AND NW
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TO COOL TO AROUND 60. FLORIDA ZONES AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN GA AND AL COUNTIES WILL SEE MID-UPPER 60S.

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING, OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A TRANSITION FROM
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUNDAY MORNING AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR BEHIND A
FRONTAL SYSTEM, WILL EFFECTIVELY SQUASH ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW RAIN CHANCES, AND DRIER AIR, WILL ALLOWS
TEMPERATURES TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH MID-UPPER 60S AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING BREAKING
DOWN AS A SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL PROVIDE AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH STACKED HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE ONLY FORCING
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WITH POPS IN THE
SLIGHT TO CHANCE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. CONVECTION MAY INCREASE AS
WE MOVE IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY]

ALL TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE TAFS, ASIDE FROM STRONG AND SOMETIMES
GUSTY NW AND WNW WINDS, WOULD BE AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AT ECP AND
ASSOCIATED TSRA. THESE SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VIS AROUND 19-23Z AT ECP.

&&

.MARINE...

THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR
LESS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS AND REMAIN ELEVATED
AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ASIDE FROM HIGH DISPERSION VALUES THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS, HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

OUR AREA RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY AT NORMAL FLOW LEVELS AND WITH NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FORECAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK, NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   66  90  66  92  69 /  20  10   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   69  84  71  85  72 /  20  10   0  20  10
DOTHAN        60  86  63  90  66 /  10  10   0  10  10
ALBANY        60  87  62  91  65 /  10  10   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      62  88  62  90  63 /  10  10   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    67  91  66  92  65 /  20  10   0  20  10
APALACHICOLA  71  85  72  86  73 /  20  10   0  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY/DOBBS
SHORT TERM...BARRY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...GODSEY/DOBBS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS/BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



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