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Area Forecast Discussion

373
FXUS62 KTAE 040823
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
423 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The overnight analysis reveals broad upper level troughing over the
Great Lakes and northeast states with light northwest flow aloft
over the local area. A pocket of drier air is located over central
Alabama with PWAT values only around 1 inch in the driest areas. A
gradient of deep layer moisture exists over the local forecast area
with fairly dry conditions over the western half and greater
moisture over the eastern half.

As we head through the day, it`s first important to note that the
00z GFS has a poor forecast of dewpoints at least in the first 6
hours of its forecast. It initialized with dewpoints a bit too low
in the dry air across central Alabama and is running 5-10 degrees
too low on its forecast as of 06z. This error seems to propagate
through today`s forecast and results in much lower dewpoints and
instability across a larger part of the forecast area compared to
other guidance. The NAM seems a little more realistic in this case
with a better near term forecast. This has implications for
afternoon convective chances with the GFS and its MOS very dry for
today across most of the area. Meanwhile, the ensemble of CAM
guidance shows a narrow strip of higher PoPs running across the
inland portions of the Florida counties and adjacent sections of
southern Georgia. This appears to be related to the afternoon sea
breeze. The official forecast trended in this direction with higher
PoPs in this area and lower PoPs across the north where the airmass
will be drier, just not as dry as the GFS thinks. Afternoon high
temperatures are expected to range from near 90 across the southeast
big bend to the upper 90s across the northwest areas where more
sunshine is likely. With dewpoints expected to remain in the low to
mid 70s across the southern portion of the area, heat index values
are expected to average around 105 there and near 100 elsewhere.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
With the region on the western edge of the subtropical ridge for
the short term period, expect a return to the typical summertime
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance
suggests areas across the Florida Big Bend and into South Central
Georgia will be favored for convection on Wednesday. By Thursday,
the leading edge of the next storm system moves into the Mid
South, and with deep layer moisture on the increase across the
western portion of the region, expect greater rain chances in the
western zones Thursday afternoon.

High temperatures throughout the short term period should be in
the mid 90s.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Primary focus for the long term period will be the approach of a
frontal system on Friday and Saturday. The main energy with this
system will move quickly through the Tennessee Valley on Friday
and reach the Mid Atlantic Coast by Saturday. A frontal boundary
will stall across the region early in the weekend, suggesting a
couple of high PoP days, especially through Sunday. Model guidance
then diverges on whether some drier air will filter in from the
north (GFS) or the region stays stuck in a wet pattern into the
first of next week (Euro). For now will indicate rain chances at
the end of the period slightly above climatology. With a wet
pattern expected for at least the first half of the long term
period, should see afternoon high temperatures in the lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Wednesday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected with a
brief period of MVFR possible near dawn around VLD. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected during the afternoon hours, most
numerous around TLH and VLD.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will return to typical summertime levels through
much of this week as high pressure builds back over the marine
area. A weak frontal system will approach the region by the
weekend and may result in a slight increase in winds.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Warm and humid conditions will continue for the next several days
with scattered convection, mainly in the afternoon and early
evening.

&&

.Hydrology...
The Steinhatchee River has crested and is now starting to slowly
fall. It is expected that the river will remain above flood stage
for at least the next few days, likely dropping below flood stage
on Friday morning.

With mainly scattered afternoon and evening storms the next few
days, do not anticipate any additional river flood concerns,
though areas in the Southeast Florida Big Bend, particularly in
Dixie County, will be especially prone to further areal flooding,
should any storms move over the area during the next couple of
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  76  93  75  92 /  60  20  40  20  40
Panama City   88  78  88  78  88 /  30  20  40  20  40
Dothan        98  75  94  74  93 /  40  10  40  20  50
Albany        96  76  95  74  92 /  30  10  40  20  50
Valdosta      94  76  94  74  92 /  50  20  40  20  40
Cross City    90  76  92  74  91 /  50  20  40  20  40
Apalachicola  90  79  88  77  87 /  30  20  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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