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Area Forecast Discussion

632
FXUS62 KTAE 290633
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer southerly flow is expected to develop today, which will
enable moisture advection in our area through much of the depth
of the troposphere. The end result will be a return to a more
humid air mass, and increased rain chances - particularly in our
Florida counties. There is some evidence of a weak surface warm
front in the 05Z observations and objective MSAS analysis with a
pressure trough, surface wind shift, and thetae gradient existing
about 120 miles south of Apalachicola. Most available model
guidance suggests this will lift north with the surge of low-level
moisture this morning, and could be a focus for convection. In
fact, a cluster of cooling cloud tops was noted on IR satellite,
along with lightning, in the general vicinity of this front (also
around 05Z). The timing on the models is fairly consistent, and
suggests a marked increase in rain chances in the late morning to
around midday (15-17Z) near the Florida Panhandle coast. The
convection would then slowly spread inland and into parts of the
Big Bend during the course of the afternoon, eventually
diminishing around 00Z. We placed 60-70% PoPs in the Florida
Panhandle west of the Ochlockonee River for this afternoon, with
30-50% PoPs in most other locations. Far northern parts of our
area in the Albany to Tifton corridor and to the north may
actually remain dry today. High temperatures were adjusted
according to greatest rain chances and sky cover, and we leaned
toward the consensus of the convection-allowing models (CAM) which
indicated mid-90s in the northern parts of our area that should
remain relatively cloud free, and upper 80s to around 90 south of
Interstate 10 in Florida. Convection will diminish in the evening,
setting up a fairly typical late summer night with dry weather and
lows in the lower 70s.

Despite the fact that the 00Z Tallahassee sounding from yesterday
evening only showed 1.09" precipitable water (PWAT) values, there
should be a substantial surge of moisture today, and models
consistently show 2"+ PWATs by late afternoon over the southern
half of our area. Combined with storm motions under 10 knots,
this could lead to a threat of localized heavy rainfall, and some
of our local CAM ensemble members are showing small areas of 4-6"
of rain. We have added heavy rain wording to the forecast, mainly
in Florida.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday]...
Although the tropical wave across the Gulf will have lifted north
of the area by Saturday, deep moisture will remain in place with
PWAT values near 2 inches. This will support diurnal convection
with 50-60% PoPs across the area for Saturday and 40-50% for
Sunday. Although locally heavy rainfall rates are possible with
the deep moisture in place, widespread heavy rainfall does not
appear likely with the lack significant upper level dynamics or a
low level jet. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with
lows in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Medium range guidance is all in good agreement that deep layer
ridging will dominate over the southeastern states through much
of next week. Without a source of deep moisture in place, PoPs
will remain below climo, with temperatures continuing to run above
normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] In general, conditions are expected to
remain in the VFR range through the period. However, increasing
showers and thunderstorms are expected by late morning and into
the afternoon. IFR VIS will be possible in the heavier rain
showers or storms, but those should be brief reductions in VIS.
The best chance of TSRA will be at ECP, and slightly lower at TLH.
Chances will diminish much more to the north and east at DHN, ABY,
and VLD. The most likely time for TSRA will be starting around 16Z
near the Florida Panhandle coast, to around 23Z further inland.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will be southerly today as a weak tropical wave moves
northward across the Gulf of Mexico. The onshore flow, which
should remain near or below 15 knots, will continue into early
next week.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Increasing moisture today will lead to higher afternoon RH values,
and no threat of red flag conditions across the area. There is the
potential for some wetting rains in the Florida Panhandle this
afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...
A decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected today
across the southern portions of the area, spreading north to
include most of the area on Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall
amounts are possible, but widespread heavy rain does not look
likely. There are no flooding concerns at this time since river
levels are already very low due to a drier than average summer.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  94  74  94 /  50  30  50  30  50
Panama City   87  79  91  77  92 /  70  40  50  30  40
Dothan        95  73  94  73  95 /  30  20  60  30  40
Albany        96  74  96  74  94 /  20  10  60  40  50
Valdosta      95  73  93  72  94 /  30  20  50  30  50
Cross City    90  74  93  72  93 /  50  30  50  30  40
Apalachicola  86  77  91  76  91 /  60  40  40  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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