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Area Forecast Discussion

351
FXUS62 KTAE 150838
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
438 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The low-mid level flow (1000-500mb) will be from the southeast early
this morning before veering to the south to southwest by this
afternoon. This will bring a surge of moisture on the east side of
tropical wave northward with PWATs increasing into the 2.0" to 2.2"
range. This combined with abundant moisture already in place in the
mid to upper levels along with the presence of a quasi-stationary
front across our CWA will be the focus for widespread convection
today. Thus, PoPs are in the likely category (60-70%) for all zones.
The showers/storms will continue to be slow movers increasing the
threat for locally heavy rain and isolated flooding of low lying and
poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding is not anticipated
either today or throughout the short term period described below, so
while monitored, the threat for flash flooding still appears minimal
at this time. Also, most areas today will see max temps in upper 80s
to around 90 degrees.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

The end of the very stagnant synoptic weather pattern which has
dominated our region for much of the month of September thus far is
finally in sight. This pattern, which has resulted in unseasonably
warm and wet conditions in the absence of any organized tropical
activity, has indeed helped many areas catch up in rainfall from the
record or near record dry conditions this past meteorological
summer. For example, Tallahassee had its driest period of June,
July, and August of all time with with only 8.99 inches of rainfall,
which happens to be the only time on record this period has ever been
below 10 inches. Through Sept. 14, 5.14 inches of rain has already
fallen this month, and if 3.86 inches of additional rain were to
fall during the next 3 days (which is certainly possible), then the
September rainfall would already exceed that of the entire summer.

The defining features of this month so far (which is also averaging
nearly 3 degrees above normal in temperature every day) have been
characterized by a weak Sfc pressure gradient and a stubborn "dirty"
upper level ridge (with plenty of deep layer moisture (PWATs between
1.8" and 2.2") continuing to flow into the CWA from western Atlantic
and Gulf of Mexico. This ample moisture will remain in place across
the region through at least Tuesday night, and with the upper ridge
finally expected to break down and retrograde westward, a steepening
upper level trof will initially help energize the above mentioned
Sfc boundary, increasing the chances for another period of heavy
rainfall on Tuesday, possibly lingering into Tuesday night. While
mean storm total rainfall amounts are generally expected to be in
the 1" to 3" inch range across the entire region, isolated amounts
of 3" to 5" or even 4" to 6" could be possible (especially near the
coast of the FL Panhandle and western Big Bend) before all is said
and done on Wednesday. However, since these higher amounts should be
isolated as well as spread out over 3 days, the threat for any
widespread flooding appears minimal at this time. Additionally,
during each successive run of the Global Models during the past few
days, the trend in both the GFS and ECMWF has been to accelerate the
steepening of the trof which will help push the stalled out boundary
through as a cold front on Wednesday and Wednesday night. This will
put a quick end to the heavy rain chances, and may even bring a slight
taste of fall to the region by the end of the week.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Sunday]...

As the upper level trough deepens and moves south, the stalled
frontal boundary will move off to the southeast bringing in slightly
drier air. With the drier air behind the trof and cold front, PoPs
drop into the 10 to 30% range for the upcoming period. We will see a
taste of cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 80s and lows in
the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Tuesday] Low clouds with restricted visibility can be
expected at DHN, ABY, and VLD in the pre-dawn hours. Cigs could
approach airport minimums around sunrise. Thereafter, VFR conditions
are expected at all terminals through midday when conditions may
fluctuate between VFR and MVFR as numerous showers/Tstms develop
across the area. Winds will be light from the southeast to
southwest.

&&

.Marine...

With a stalled out frontal boundary to the north of the coastal
waters, the surface pressure pattern will remain stubbornly tight
today into Tuesday, allowing for south to southwest winds of 10 to
15 knots and 2 to 4 foot seas. Thereafter, winds and seas will
slowly diminish behind the cold front on Wednesday and Thursday, as
the winds become offshore. Then, by the end of the week and into
next weekend, a strong ridge of high pressure will build in to the
northeast of the marine area, creating a tight pressure gradient
once again, with favorable conditions for easterly surges.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected at least through the end of the
workweek.

&&

.Hydrology...

As mentioned above, a widespread 1 to 3 inches of storm total
rainfall (with isolated higher amounts) is expected to fall across
the HSA during the next few days. While this may cause some rises on
our area rivers and streams, it is unlikely to bring any of them to
flood stage, especially with the highest rainfall amounts expected
closer to the coast.

&&


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   90  72  89  70  91 /  70  40  70  50  30
Panama City   89  76  87  74  88 /  70  50  70  50  20
Dothan        89  71  89  69  90 /  60  40  60  30  20
Albany        92  71  90  69  90 /  60  40  60  30  20
Valdosta      90  71  89  69  90 /  60  40  70  50  30
Cross City    91  71  87  69  88 /  60  30  70  50  40
Apalachicola  87  77  86  76  86 /  70  50  70  50  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD







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