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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 290526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
126 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast period.
Slight chance for thunderstorms to affect terminals during the
afternoon, with highest chances at KECP and KDHN.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

As expected, showers and thunderstorms are remaining isolated in
coverage along the seabreeze thus far this afternoon. With surface
and upper level ridging firmly in place across the region, coverage
is expected to remain isolated due to subsidence aloft. Any shower
and storms that manage to develop will stay on the weaker side due
to a fairly dry airmass in place (PW: 1.40" on the 12Z sounding)
limiting instability across the region. Activity is expected to
diminish after sunset. Overnight lows will dip down into lower to
mid 70s across the region.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will remain in place through the short term
period. As upper forcing remains well removed from the area,
below normal chances for rain in the 20-30 percent range will
continue. Any showers and storms that develop will be primarily
seabreeze driven. High temperatures will be a bit above normal due
to the decreased rain chances, in the mid 90s at all inland sites.
Anyone with outdoor activities on Friday and Saturday should
remember to follow appropriate heat safety guidelines as heat
indices will approach 105 degrees each afternoon. Lows will be in
the mid 70s inland, upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The upper ridge which has consistently been over our area will begin
to flatten out as a broad trough builds over the eastern CONUS. The
subtropical ridge begins to retreat off to the east, and deep layer
southerly flow will increase moisture. PoPs look to return to more
typical values for the middle of summer (30-40%) as opposed to the
20-30% of recently. Guidance indicates above normal rain chances
near the end of the long term with the potential for some tropical
moisture streaming into the area. High temperatures will generally
range in the mid 90s (heat indices approaching 105) and lows in the
mid 70s.


High pressure will continue over the marine zones with winds
generally light and from the south. Waves will be at or below 2


Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days. Rain chances will be lower than usual over the next
couple of days.


All area rivers are below action stage. With below normal rain
chances expected to continue for the next few days, flooding is
not expected.



Tallahassee   97  75  97  76  96 /  20  10  30  20  40
Panama City   89  80  89  79  89 /  20  10  30  20  30
Dothan        94  74  94  74  94 /  30  10  30  20  40
Albany        96  74  97  75  96 /  20  10  30  20  40
Valdosta      96  73  97  73  96 /  20  10  30  20  40
Cross City    96  75  95  75  95 /  20  10  30  20  40
Apalachicola  91  78  92  78  91 /  10  10  30  20  30




NEAR TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Moore/Bennett
FIRE WEATHER...Moore/Bennett

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