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Area Forecast Discussion

238
FXUS62 KTAE 031949
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
249 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Except along the immediate coast where onshore winds have combined
with low clouds and fog to hold afternoon temperatures back into the
upper 60s to the lower 70s, rapid clearing which occurred elsewhere
across the CWA during the mid to late morning hours allowed temps to
soar into the lower to middle 80s across much of the interior. These
temps are starting to peak out with a fairly robust CU field
developing, and an isolated light shower or 2 still cannot be
entirely ruled out. Tonight should be very mild and humid with low
temps well above climo values, with a fcst low of 56 in Tallahassee
compared to a "normal" low of 45. Fog and low clouds are expected
once again overnight, with more of an advection or combination
advection/radiation fog event. Therefore, expect the best chances
for dense fog or the potential for longer periods of dense fog to be
at the southern Taf sites of ECP, TLH, and VLD.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will continue on Wednesday with above average
afternoon highs. There will be only a slight chance for rain
across the Florida panhandle late in the day as weak isentropic
ascent commences over a shallow cool layer across the Panhandle
shelf waters.

Wednesday night through Thursday will feature a breakdown of the
ridging pattern as a strengthening shortwave (a product of
superposition) moves east out of the Central Plains, amplifying
the northern stream trough. This will gradually move a cold front
through the region primarily on Thursday. The best rain chances
will be along and west of a line from Albany to Apalachicola as
the shortwave will move through the Midwest and Northeast, well
north of our area. Thus, forcing for showers will weaken as the
front moves east.

Temperatures on Wednesday night will be quite mild as advection
fog is expected to spread across the entire Tri-State region. On
Thursday, the front will result in a sharp temperature gradient,
with highs remaining in the low 80s across the Suwannee Valley and
as low as the middle 60s in southeast Alabama. CAA will spread
cooler air through the region on Thursday night, with lows falling
to the middles 30s across southeast Alabama and into the middle
50s near Cross City.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

There continues to be a great deal of disagreement between the GFS
and ECMWF throughout the entire extended period. The GFS is a bit
wetter than the Euro to start as it never fully closes off a low
over the Southwest, and instead brings a wave over the Southeast
late in the weekend. The early handling of the cutoff or more
progressive shortwave feeds back into the remainder of the period.
This results in the Euro bringing another frontal system through
the Southeast early next week (where the GFS does not), and then
some disagreement regarding the timing of another frontal system
mid to late week next week. At this time, expect an unsettled
pattern through the extended with a chance for a couple rounds of
rain.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

As mentioned above, fog and low cloud development are expected
once again tonight, but with light SE low level flow off of the
Gulf of Mexico, expect the best chances for dense fog or the
potential for longer periods of dense fog to be at the southern
Taf sites of ECP, TLH, and VLD. DHN and ABY will still likely see
a period of IFR to LIFR conditions, but these may improve to MVFR
levels or better sooner during the day on Wednesday.

&&

.Marine...

Fog will remain the primary concern across the northeast Gulf
through Thursday. Although some clearing has taken place today,
expect Apalachee Bay and adjacent offshore waters to fill back in
with fog some time tomorrow. Fog may linger west of Apalachicola
until a cold front scours it out on Thursday. Behind the cold
front an increase in winds to advisory levels is expected. The
headline conditions could last into Friday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

The only river point remaining in flood stage is the Ochlockonee
River at Havana which will crest at 25.2 feet tonight before it
starts to fall. Rain totals this week should not be high enough to
cause significant rises on area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  82  64  76  44 /  10  10  10  50  30
Panama City   57  70  63  68  42 /  10  20  20  60  20
Dothan        57  76  65  65  36 /  10  10  30  60  10
Albany        57  81  64  71  39 /  10  10  20  60  30
Valdosta      59  84  62  80  46 /  10  10  10  50  30
Cross City    60  81  61  80  54 /  10  10  10  30  30
Apalachicola  58  69  63  71  47 /  10  20  20  50  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for waters from
     Destin to Apalachicola out to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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