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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 180330

1030 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure at the sfc and ridging aloft will bring a quiet
weather pattern with clear skies overnight. Lows will be in the upper
30s tonight.


[Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the forecast


.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week as relative
humidity will be too high even during the afternoon hours.


.Prev Discussion [434 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on
Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the
Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface
cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting
wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast.
Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our
area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for
ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be
a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west
on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%)
range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday,
there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area.
Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so
thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time,
the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just
southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis
positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue
until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or
early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of
the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be
into the latter half of the next week.


It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be
likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and
Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker
system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the
next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger
cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.


With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  68  42  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   45  63  49  67  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        40  64  44  63  49 /   0   0  10  40  40
Albany        37  64  41  66  48 /   0   0  10  30  40
Valdosta      37  65  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    38  67  41  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  43  65  49  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  20


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...





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