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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 311925

325 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Although it will be significantly cooler and drier across the region
today with highs limited to the lower to middle 70s under plenty of
sunshine, (which is 3-5 degrees below climo for this time of year)
the real blast of cold air is still on the way for the upcoming
weekend. This unseasonably cold air mass will be preceded by a dry
cold front which will approach the region from the NW this evening.
Some cloud cover will build in overnight as the front approaches but
will clear out quickly before sunrise. Cold dry air behind the front
means a very chilly morning with lows in the upper 30s for most of
the region and low 40s for the southeast and coastal locations.
Winds will pick up overnight after frontal passage. Wind chill
values will be in the 30s in the early morning hours before sunrise.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
A high-amplitude, but progressive long wave pattern will continue
across the country through this period. The upper trough axis will
be over the area Saturday morning and then shift east with the
upstream ridge axis over the Mississippi Valley by Sunday night. A
reinforcing shot of colder air will arrive with the passage of
another cold front overnight. This air mass will make it feel like
mid winter with daytime highs on Saturday only reaching the upper
50s and lower 60s. That`s 15 to 20 degrees below normal. It will
also be quite breezy adding an apparent chill to the area.

This will set the stage for the coldest night of the season thus far
on Saturday night. Much of the guidance is calling for a light
freeze across our mainly our northern zones. However, the high
position over Kentucky is not ideal for realizing these temps so
early in the season. Typically, we want the high centered much
closer to the Gulf Coast. We have also noted that the MOS tends to
have a cold bias with the first couple of arctic outbreaks in the
fall. For this reason, we are keeping temps just above freezing.
Winds should stay up across most of the forecast area. However,
eastern areas may decouple for a few hours and this would allow for
some possible frost formation. We have included areas of frost over
our South Central GA and inland eastern FL Big Bend zones.

As heights rise, temps will moderate a a few degrees on Sunday. More
of the area will see winds decouple on Sunday night with fairly
uniform mid 30s for lows. We will include a mention of frost for
several inland areas.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The upper ridge will be over the area early next week with a warming
trend being the result. By Wednesday afternoon, temps will be back
to seasonal levels in the upper 70s to near 80. There is still a lot
of uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern and its impacts on
our weather for the latter part of next week. It appears that an
upper low will cut off from the main flow either over northern
Mexico or the Southwest U.S. by Wednesday. This low will then move
eastward. The GFS is much faster than the ECMWF in bringing this low
to the Gulf Coast, even going so far as to develop a surface low
over the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and moving that low
eastward across the central Gulf. At this time, we favor the slower
solution and will keep PoPs minimal for the end of the week.


[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period.
Winds will begin to increase out of the NW this afternoon and will
increase further overnight and continue through the end of the TAF
period. Gusts of 25KT are possible especially at ABY and DHN.


A cold front will sweep across the Northeast Gulf overnight with
strong gusty winds arriving in its wake. While sustained gales are
not likely, frequent gust to 35-40 knots justify the gale warning
that is in effect. Winds will peak around sunrise Saturday with
offshore seas occasionally reaching as high as 15-17 ft. High
pressure will start to build southeastward toward the waters later
in the weekend with conditions dropping below headline criteria by
mid morning Sunday. As high pressure moves east off the Southeast
U.S. coast, winds over the Gulf of Mexico will veer to the east by
Sunday night. This pattern will persist into Wednesday with winds
surging to cautionary levels each night through the period.


.Fire Weather...
A secondary dry cold front will push into the area tonight bringing
increased wind speeds and drier air. The colder temperatures will
keep relative humidity values above critical levels for much of the
area, especially as we move into the cool season criteria for
Alabama. In Washington, Bay, Leon, and Wakulla counties in Florida
however, where ERC values are highest, we will meet red flag
conditions with relative humidity around 26% and 20 ft winds around
18 MPH on Saturday. A red flag watch has been issued for these
counties for Saturday afternoon.


Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no
impacts expected along area rivers and streams.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   41  60  35  65  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   43  61  40  65  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        36  58  34  63  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        38  59  33  64  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      40  59  34  63  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    43  60  34  66  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  43  61  39  65  45 /  10   0   0   0   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon-Washington.



GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM EDT Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Saturday for
     Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.




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