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Area Forecast Discussion

681
FXUS62 KTAE 250553
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
153 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the period. VLD
and TLH continue to have a slight chance for a brief period of
reduced vsby and CIGS around sunrise. Otherwise, expect another
day of isolated SHRA and TSRA across mainly the Big Bend region.
Confidence is currently low in any activity directly affecting TAF
sites. Brief vsby reductions and gusty winds will be the main
impacts from this activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [857 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 8 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a broad area of higher
pressure across much of the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a strong ridge from the central Gulf Coast to the upper
Midwest, but there was a weak minimum in the height/temperature
fields centered over Tallahassee. The latest RAP analysis did not
show any Q-G forcing associated with this low. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms have been developing early this afternoon, but most
have been dissipating quickly once they grow into the dry zone
aloft. We expect isolated storms to continue through the afternoon,
mainly near the coast. It`s interesting to note that a few of the
storms today have had a tremendous amount of lightning. Any
remaining storms from this afternoon will dissipate by evening,
though isolated storms will develop offshore toward dawn. Overnight
lows will be in the lower 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level low positioned across the western part of the CWA is
expected to move slightly west on Sunday, and then shift eastward on
Monday. The movement of this low will begin to sink a cold front
into the southeast. Ahead of this cold front, winds will shift east
on Sunday and there will be an increase in moisture. A slightly more
active day in terms of coverage can also be expected on Monday, with
PoPs around 30-50%. High temperatures will remain above normal
through the period, with highs in the low 90s inland and upper 80s
along the coast.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

An upper level trough will amplify over the eastern CONUS Tuesday
and move off the Atlantic seaboard on Thursday. The associated weak
cold front will sweep across the CWA Tuesday/Tuesday night with
surface high pressure and drier airmass filtering in Wednesday
through the beginning of next weekend. Dew points are forecast to
drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s across all but the coastal areas
and southeast Big Bend. Pops will be highest on Tuesday (albeit
only 30%). Highs will be in the upper 80s.


.MARINE...

Winds are expected to be light (less than 10 knots) and variable
through the middle of the week, with seas around one foot.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No problems.


.HYDROLOGY...

While rain is expected over the next few days, significant
rainfall amounts are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  72  90  72  90 /  30  20  40  20  30
Panama City   88  74  86  74  86 /  40  20  30  20  30
Dothan        92  69  90  68  90 /  30  20  20  20  30
Albany        92  70  90  70  90 /  20  10  30  20  30
Valdosta      90  70  88  69  89 /  20  20  50  20  30
Cross City    90  72  88  70  88 /  20  20  30  20  20
Apalachicola  87  74  85  74  86 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Barry/King
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Barry/King
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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