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Area Forecast Discussion

406
FXUS62 KTAE 251950 CCA
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
348 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible along the sea breeze
through early this evening along the sea breeze. Otherwise, it will
be dry with lows in the lower to mid 60s.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

Our forecast area will remain underneath the subsidence side of an
upper level trough extending from the Gulf of Mexico to Cape
Hatteras. A surface high pressure system will be centered just off
the coast of the Mid Atlantic. On Friday, a weak low pressure area
will approach the Southeast Atlantic coast. While the typical sea
breeze circulation will be observed, deep layer moisture will remain
limited due to the influence of the ridge pattern, and therefore
only isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected.
Temperatures will be near average for this time of the year, with
highs around 90 and lows in the lower to mid 60s, along with lower
than normal relative humidity.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A weak low pressure area off the northeast coast of Florida will
increase the amount of uncertainty in the long term period. It is
generally expected to trek north-northwest slowly through Wednesday,
with the most likely impacts currently expected to be moderate to
heavy rain in eastern portions of Georgia and South Carolina.
Chances for rain will be lower locally, staying in the 20-30% range.
Maximum temperatures will remain around 90 with lows in the mid-
upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the TAF
cycle.

&&

.MARINE...

Aside from the daily onshore flow in the afternoons due to our
typical sea breeze, winds will generally be from the southeast
through Saturday, when high pressure will move in, making winds
lighter and more variable. Winds will become more westerly by early
next week. Seas will be 3 feet or less through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected to continue through the next several
days. While dispersion values will be elevated Thursday and Friday
afternoons, humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, with Red Flag conditions not expected.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

No significant rainfall is expected for the next several days and
there are no rivers in flood stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   65  91  66  89  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   69  84  70  82  69 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        65  91  67  89  67 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        65  91  66  89  65 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      63  90  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    61  90  61  89  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  69  84  68  82  69 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Moore/King
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Moore



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