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Area Forecast Discussion

522
FXUS62 KTAE 261935
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
335 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

With a frontal boundary stalling NW to SE across out Georgia zones
tonight, scattered convection is expected to linger into the late
evening. Went with chance PoPs (30-40%) for most of the Tri-state
area until around midnight. Otherwise, becoming mostly clear with
lows in the lower 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Upper level ridging across the Southeast will dampen through the
period as a trough amplifies as it moves from the north-central
tier of the country through the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, a frontal boundary will gradually move into the
Southeast, nearing the Tri-State region by Tuesday. Convection
will primarily be seabreeze driven on Monday, and confined mostly
to north Florida in the light northeasterly flow regime. Expect
the highest PoPs south of interstate 10. Storms on Tuesday will
likely be forced by a more active (SW flow) seabreeze regime, as
well as convection dropping into the region from the northwest as
it moves away from the aforementioned front. Isolated severe
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon in a favorable
thermodynamic environment. In addition to PoP coverage, high
temperatures will likely still run above average on Monday, before
the ridge really starts to break down by Tuesday. Expect upper 90s
on Monday, with lower 90s more common on Tuesday.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The previously mentioned front will linger across the Southeast,
with broad troughing aloft through the period. This will result in
above average rain chances through next weekend, with highs near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms should at least
briefly impact most or all terminals through the evening hours.
During storms, visibilities and ceilings may drop, but will likely
stay in the MVFR-VFR range. A brief period of MVFR vsbys is also
possible due to patchy fog development overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail through the week.
Each afternoon winds may increase near the coast to 10 to 15
knots, with a light to moderate chop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms are likely near the coast on Monday. No
fire weather concerns except for lightning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The next week or so will feature above normal rain chances,
however widespread heavy rain is not expected. Each day, scattered
storms could produce an inch or so of rain, though the likelihood
of one location getting an inch or so of rain each day is low. In
general, river or urban/rural flooding is not expected through the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  96  75  93  76 /  40  30  20  60  40
Panama City   77  89  80  89  78 /  20  50  20  30  40
Dothan        73  96  75  92  74 /  40  20  20  70  40
Albany        73  95  75  93  75 /  40  20  20  50  40
Valdosta      72  96  74  95  75 /  30  30  10  50  50
Cross City    73  94  74  91  76 /  30  50  20  50  20
Apalachicola  77  89  78  88  78 /  20  40  20  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...McDermott
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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