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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 252319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
719 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions to persist through the entire period, with FEW to
SCT CIGS. Easterly winds will persist through the period, with
speeds increasing to around 10 KTS by early afternoon, with a few
higher gusts possible at times.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A quiet pattern will persist through the remainder of the day and
through the overnight hours, with northeasterly flow continuing to
advect dry air into our area. PWAT values are below average,
remaining below 1.5" throughout this period, and dewpoints have
dropped into the mid-60s over much of our CWA this afternoon as some
of the dry air has mixed down to the surface. Despite mostly clear
skies, light east-northeast winds overnight may keep the boundary
layer somewhat mixed and lows should not drop much below seasonal
averages. Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 60s
to lower 70s inland, with mid 70s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A deep layer ridge will be centered to our north and will be the
primary synoptic feature for much of the Southeast. Deep layer
moisture will be unusually low on Friday, and we expect a
continuation of below-average PoPs (10% or less). Moisture will
begin to return across southern portions of the forecast area by
Saturday afternoon. With rather strong 1000-700 mb winds from the
east, the greatest low-layer convergence will be near the coasts
of the FL Big Bend and Panhandle, as the sea breeze fronts
develop and attempt to move slowly inland. This is where the
greatest PoPs (20%) will be Saturday afternoon.

It will still be rather hot during the daytime hours with highs in
the mid 90s, but with dewpoints falling through the 60s, heat index
values won`t be as oppressive as they were earlier this week.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The main focus will be on the potential for a tropical wave or
tropical storm to affect our forecast area next week. Tropical
disturbance "99L" was in the southeast Bahamas and appeared weaker
and less organized than it did 24 hours earlier. The consensus of
global models brings 99L across South FL late this weekend. The
operational global models remain in two camps- the ECMWF and CMC
solutions develop this system into a tropical storm in the Gulf of
Mexico, while the GFS keeps it as a tropical wave. (However, the
12 UTC ECMWF solution is considerably weaker than the previous 2
runs, which had developed the system into a hurricane). The
differences may be related to (a) the current poor organization of
the system, and (b) an unusually complex upper level wind pattern
over the next several days. The ECMWF brings the storm into
Apalachee Bay late Tuesday, while the CMC takes it into the
northwest Gulf of Mexico. The GFS takes a tropical wave westward
into the central Gulf, steered by the more shallow easterly winds.

Given these stark differences, and no reason to prefer one model
more than another at this time, we will blend the guidance. This
will result in above-average rain chances for portions of our
forecast area, along with breezy conditions at the coast. We`d
like to say that we`ll know more 24 hours from now, but this
system may not become a tropical cyclone until this weekend, if at
all. Thus we may be dealing with a tropical wave that develops
quickly near or over south FL or the eastern Gulf, with less
watch/warning lead time than we`re accustomed to.


A high pressure ridge will remain north and east of the marine area,
resulting in east winds into early next week. The strongest winds
(around 15 knots) will occur during the overnight and morning hours,
followed by lighter winds (10 knots) during the afternoon hours.
Even if the aforementioned tropical disturbance were not to develop
into a storm, we would still see an increase in winds and seas next
week as the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.


Dry mid-level air continues to filter into the region this
afternoon, yielding dispersion values above 75 across portions of
the region. High dispersion values can be expected across parts of
the tri-state region Friday and Saturday afternoons as well.
Otherwise, no fire weather concerns, as RH values will stay well
above critical thresholds.


No organized heavy rain is expected through Monday. By Tuesday and
Wednesday heavy rain will be possible across portions of our
forecast area, depending of course on the track of tropical
disturbance 99L. The potential for heavy rain should not depend very
much of the system`s intensity, as weak tropical storms can
produce as much torrential rain as stronger systems.



Tallahassee   73  95  73  94  75 /   0  10   0  20  10
Panama City   76  90  76  89  77 /   0  10  10  20  20
Dothan        71  93  70  93  72 /   0   0   0  10   0
Albany        71  95  70  94  72 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      72  94  70  94  73 /   0   0   0  20   0
Cross City    74  93  73  92  74 /   0  20   0  30  10
Apalachicola  76  89  77  89  78 /  10  10  10  20  20






SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier

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