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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 211749

149 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

With deep layer ridging across much of the Southeast and dry,
sinking air aloft, we expect just isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The PoP is 20% through this evening, which is
a blend of our Ensemble of Convection Allowing Models (ECAM) and
various MOS. With temperatures peaking near 100 deg this afternoon,
it may take until sunset for some inland sites to finally drop below
90 deg. Lows will be in the mid 70s, except upper 70s at the beaches
and in cities. The cumulative effect of this heat can take its toll
on those without good ventilation/air conditioning.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Deep layer ridging will suppress shower and thunderstorm activity
the next few days as dry mid-level air overspreads the Tri-State
region. Expect only isolated storms on the seabreeze each
afternoon. The more impactful weather element will be the above
average temperatures forecast each afternoon. Widespread maximum
temperatures around 100 degrees will, by nature, yield apparent
temperatures nearing heat advisory criteria (~108 degrees). This
will be especially true nearer to the coast where dewpoints will
be highest along and behind of the seabreeze front. In coastal
locations heat indices will likely reach 110 degrees each day.
Will maintain the current heat advisory for the aforementioned

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

Northwesterly low-layer flow will veer to a more easterly
direction increasing boundary layer moisture, while deep layer
ridging persists. This increase in moisture will result in near
normal PoPs to start the period. By early next week there is
consensus that a front will slip into the region from the
northeast returning us to a drier than normal pattern to finish
the week. Temperature will remain closer to seasonal normals for
the entire extended range.


[Through 18Z Friday]

Other than isolated TSRA this afternoon and evening, generally
unlimited cigs and unrestricted vis are expected through the
period. Some of the numerical guidance suggests the possibility of
brief light fog around dawn Friday, but we chose not to include
that in this forecast package without more certainty. Except for
an onshore sea breeze near 10 KT this afternoon at KECP, winds
will be light and rather variable.



Light west to northwest winds will continue through the weekend
and then swing around to the east and increase to just below
cautionary levels early next week. Seas will generally be 2 feet
or less.


.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least this weekend.



Very little rainfall is expected over the next few days and river
levels will remain well below action stage. In fact, the
Apalachicola River is forecast to remain in low flow levels into
next week.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  99  75 100  77 /  10  30  20  30  20
Panama City   79  94  80  95  81 /  10  30  20  30  10
Dothan        75 100  75 101  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        75 101  75 101  77 /  20  10  10  20  20
Valdosta      73 100  74  99  75 /  20  20  20  30  20
Cross City    74  98  75  97  76 /  10  20  20  30  20
Apalachicola  78  94  79  94  80 /  10  20  20  30  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-





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