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Area Forecast Discussion

889
FXUS62 KTAE 250751
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
351 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The center of an upper level low has moved off the west coast of
Florida this morning into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Drier air (PW
values just under 1.5 inches) across the CWA will be working against
the upper level low to help limit convection over the land areas.
Late in the day though, PW values begin to increase while both the
GFS and NAM pick up on a small piece of energy moving near/across
the western portion of the CWA. Given this, think convection will be
isolated until late afternoon when it has the potential to become
more scattered mainly across the ECP to DHN areas.

High temperatures will be similar to yesterday with highs ranging
from the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to lower 90s along the
immediate coast. Heat indicies will generally be in the lower 100s
today with only isolated places reaching the mid 100s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

The upper level trough over the eastern Gulf will continue to
move northwestward tonight, and will move west of our region by
early Tuesday morning. This feature will enhance chances of
showers and thunderstorms tonight, especially across our western
Gulf zones and FL Panhandle coast, where moisture will be highest.
Although upper level forcing will decrease when the trough moves
to our west on Tuesday, precipitation chances will likely
increase as southerly flow pushes very moist air inland to the
east of the upper trough. Models are in agreement that PWAT values
should reach or exceed 2" across much of our area on Tuesday
afternoon and early evening. This very moist airmass, along with
moderate instability (generally 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE) will
likely result in good coverage of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across our area.

Coverage of showers/thunderstorms on Wednesday is expected to be
more sparse, with a pocket of mid-level dry air projected to move
into our area from the east. As a result, PoPs on Wednesday are
generally 20-30% lower than Tuesday across most of our CWA, with
highest PoPs and moisture remaining in our western areas across
the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama. High temperatures should
also be a couple degrees higher on Wednesday than on Tuesday due
to the drier air and less cloud cover, with mid 90s prevailing
inland on Wednesday and lower 90s forecast on Tuesday.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

A typical summer pattern of deep layer high pressure will persist
throughout this period across our region. A seasonably moist,
unstable airmass will remain in place, so there will continue to
be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon
and early evening as the sea breeze moves inland. Highs will
generally be in the mid 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast,
with lows in the mid 70s inland and upper 70s at coastal
locations.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Tuesday]...

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period, with the
potential for FEW-BKN025 right along the coast this morning near
ECP. Isolated TSRA is expected this afternoon with scattered TSRA
across the ECP to DHN area. Highest chances for TSRA will be at
ECP.

&&

.MARINE...

Generally light winds out of the south or southwest will persist
throughout the next several days, resulting in seas around 2 feet
or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values will remain above critical thresholds and thus Red Flag
Warning criteria will not be met over the next few days. High
dispersion values are possible this afternoon across parts of
Florida and southeast Alabama and Tuesday across the Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

No widespread flooding concerns are anticipated throughout the
period. However, isolated/localized flooding can`t be ruled out
through early next week with increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, along with weak
steering flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   93  75  91  75  94 /  20  10  60  10  30
Panama City   89  79  87  79  88 /  40  30  50  20  20
Dothan        94  74  91  74  92 /  30  10  50  20  40
Albany        95  74  94  74  95 /  20  10  40  20  20
Valdosta      94  73  92  73  94 /  10  20  50  10  20
Cross City    93  74  92  74  93 /  30  30  40  10  20
Apalachicola  89  79  88  79  90 /  30  30  50  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Lahr



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