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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 290823

323 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Deep layer ridging will continue to prevail over the Tri-State
region, though the pattern over the Southeast will become a bit more
messy through the day. The upper ridge will flatten today, while a
weak area of low pressure moves along a front stretching through the
Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The only effects locally
will be increased middle and high level cloudiness across southeast
AL and our northwestern GA counties. Afternoon highs will near 80
degrees for locations away from the coast.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Weak ridging will be in place over the Gulf of Mexico tonight
while the flow across the CWA is nearly zonal. The better moisture
remains just north of the CWA and thus little in terms of
precipitation for the short term. By Tuesday the upper level flow
becomes more SW as a shortwave lifts across the north central U.S.
and pushes a front into the Southeast. Models are in decent
agreement with showing the potential for some showers Tuesday
afternoon and thus have included slight chance Pops for the end of
the short term.

Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s
through the short term, continuing to result in highs above
normal for this time of year.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

While discrepancies continue for the long term between the GFS
and ECMWF, the GFS is now coming more into line with the ECMWF for
Wednesday with the front pushing into the SE. The GFS still
weakens the front and dissipates the precipitation associated with
the front, but now brings some showers into the CWA ahead of the
front. While it is still a slightly different set-up, this helps
to better justify the chance PoPs in the forecast for Wednesday.

A short wave dives into the southern plains late in the weak and
helps to continue to push moisture across the CWA. This would help
to result in our best rain chances for the whole CWA late in the
week. While the upper shortwave is still west of the CWA, the
ECMWF remains quicker with pushing the precipitation east of the
CWA. The GFS is much slower than last night`s 00Z run with
clearing precipitation as it develops a closed upper low across
the SE that is slow moving. Have lingered slight chance PoPs into
the weekend for the eastern portion of the CWA but have kept the
best chances confined to Thu-Fri.


[Through 06Z Monday]

LIFR visibilities are encroaching on ECP early this morning.
Confidence is highest that ECP will be impacted, with a low chance
of some vis restrictions at TLH and VLD for around an hour or so
near sunrise. Otherwise, VFR will prevail through the TAF at all



Weak easterly winds will be in place for today. The flow will
become more southerly Tuesday night and northerly Wednesday with a
front pushing into the Southeast. Overall winds will be light
which will result in variable winds at times. Winds are forecast
to increase to cautionary levels mid to late next week.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days.



With no significant rain anticipated through early this week,
there are no flood concerns at this time.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  55  80  58  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   73  57  76  59  76 /   0  10  10  10  10
Dothan        79  55  78  57  77 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        79  54  78  57  78 /   0   0  10  10  10
Valdosta      80  54  80  57  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    79  56  80  58  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  73  58  76  60  76 /   0   0   0  10  10





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