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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 221102

602 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2014

...Severe Weather and Flooding Possible Across the Region on
Tuesday and Wednesday...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Deep southwesterly flow will cover the Southeast today underneath
the Subtropical jet. The ribbon of +PV responsible for the jet is
clearly visible on water vapor imagery this morning with a large
area of middle/upper level dry air spreading from the western Gulf
through the Southern Mississippi Valley. This dry air will gradually
spread eastward through the day today as the leading edge of a
northern stream shortwave noses the southern stream east. Although
this may sound like a limiting factor for rain across the region
today, it will merely limit the intensity of rain as deep layer
synoptic moisture and ascent is removed. The primary forcing
mechanism for rain today will be rooted in the lower troposphere,
below 700 mb. Strong warm, moist advection in this layer will break
down the high pressure wedge that has plagued our region over the
past couple days and gradually spread broad troughing and an
associated warm front north to the northern Gulf Coast. Isentropic
ascent, primarily along the 295K surface will result in continued
light to moderate rain spreading inland through the day. Again,
without much deep layer forcing to speak of, expect a somewhat
ragged rain shield today with on-and-off breaks and overall low QPF.
High temperatures will most likely be 5 to 10 degrees warmer across
north Florida today, even with the rain and cloud cover. While
temperatures will struggle to climb into the middle 50s closer to
the retrograding wedge across our northern most Georgia counties.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A developing low pressure system off to our west will begin to
amplify across the lower MS Valley region during the next couple of
days and eventually form a potent and moisture laden system over
the SE on Tuesday. This very energetic low is then expected to move
rapidly north-northeast from the Central Gulf coast states into the
eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday night and Thursday, pushing a
strong cold front through our region later on Wednesday. Along with
the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with the
pre-frontal squall line, a band of very heavy rainfall with
potential flooding is quite possible as well, and this has prompted
a Flash Flood Watch across our region from Tuesday morning through
Wednesday evening. Storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches
(with locally higher amounts) are definitely possible during this
time frame, which unfortunately, is centered around Christmas Eve.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

After the passage of the strong cold front on Wednesday night,
conditions will rapidly return to normal on Thursday (Christmas Day)
with fair and seasonably cool weather to return for much of the
extended period.



IFR ceilings will prevail for most of the TAF for all terminals.
There may, however, be a brief period of time in the afternoon where
ceilings lift to MVFR levels, though no scattering is expected.
Visibility restrictions in fog will clear shortly after sunrise, but
MVFR to IFR visibilities could still be possible in rain through the



A developing low pressure system to our west will will continue to
tighten the pressure pattern over the the marine area during the
next few days. This will result in steadily increasing onshore winds
and seas, with Small Craft Advisory Conditions developing on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Boating conditions are expected to become quite
hazardous on Wednesday and Wednesday night with seas peaking at 8 to
10 feet. Conditions across the coastal waters will rapidly improve
on Thursday and Friday as the strong cold front moves much further
away from the marine area.


.Fire Weather...

A stretch of wet weather will preclude any hazardous fire weather
conditions over the next several days.



A developing low pressure system off to our west will continue to
open up plenty of moisture in the Gulf of Mexico through the middle
of this week, with a strong low pressure system expected to develop
and sweep a strong cold front through our region by Wednesday
evening. This system, with its vast onshore flow, will have the
potential to bring heavy rain to much of our region on both Tuesday
and Wednesday. With embedded heavy thunderstorms, some of which
could be severe, the potential for widespread rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches (with locally higher amounts) could cause flash flooding
in certain locations. The most likely areas for flooding will be low
lying and poor drainage areas, but widespread 4 to 6 inch amounts
could cause flooding on some of of our more vulnerable rivers and
streams as well.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  62  72  63  71 /  80  50  80  90  80
Panama City   66  64  71  66  68 /  80  50  90 100  70
Dothan        63  58  71  61  69 /  70  50  90 100  70
Albany        58  57  71  60  67 /  60  50  90 100  80
Valdosta      61  60  73  63  73 /  80  50  80  90  80
Cross City    72  62  73  64  73 /  80  50  60  90  80
Apalachicola  67  63  69  65  69 /  80  50  80  90  80


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-

AL...Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.





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