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Area Forecast Discussion

347
FXUS62 KTAE 270710
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
310 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

In general, the Tri-State region will remain under a channel of high
pressure aloft, between areas of low pressure over the Central
Plains and the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure will
prevail as well, yielding east/southeasterly low-level flow. Deep
layer dry air will prevent convection from forming along the
afternoon seabreeze fronts, with only a stray shower possible very
late in the day in the Suwannee Valley. Seasonable highs are
expected once again, climbing to the upper 80s to near 90 inland,
with low 80s expected along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Upper level ridging will remain over the east coast through the short
term. Rain chances will be less than 20%, however an isolated
thunderstorm is possible with the sea breeze. The area of low
pressure near the Bahamas will stay well to the east of the local
area. Lows will be in the mid 60s with highs in the upper 80s on
Friday and lower 90s on Saturday.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Ridging will begin to weaken as the tropical wave moves up the
east coast of Florida. The National Hurricane Center has an 80%
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.
However, most of the impacts will stay well to the northeast
along the coast of the Carolinas. Moisture will extend to the
local area and PoPs will be in the 20-30% range. Highs will be in
the lower 90s with lows near 70.


&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

With high pressure in place winds will be southeasterly 10 to 15
knots for the next several days. Early next week winds will become
westerly around 10 knots. Seas will be 3 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

With rivers below action stage and no significant rain the in the
forecast, there are no hydrology concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  66  91  69  91 /   0   0  10  10  10
Panama City   81  70  83  71  85 /   0   0  10  10  10
Dothan        88  65  88  66  90 /   0   0  10   0  10
Albany        89  64  89  67  90 /   0   0  10  10  10
Valdosta      87  63  89  67  89 /   0   0  10  10  20
Cross City    89  64  90  67  90 /   0   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  82  70  83  70  85 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston



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