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Area Forecast Discussion

788
FXUS62 KTAE 011530
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1130 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Low-level moisture remains trapped under an inversion around 850mb
this morning, with overcast skies still in place. Morning visible
imagery shows the cloud deck beginning to erode, which should
allow for some much awaited sunshine by early afternoon. With the
sun, temperatures should be able to get near the forecast highs in
the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise, a mostly dry day is expected
outside of a few showers over the far southeastern Big Bend this
afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] All terminals are VFR this morning with
cigs above 4kft. This cloud deck should scatter out during the
afternoon, with VFR conditions forecast to prevail through the
remainder of the forecast.

&&

.Prev Discussion [230 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
At upper levels, relatively zonal flow at the start of the period
will give way to a period of short-wave ridging on Thursday as a
strong short wave pivots across the Central and Southern Plains.
Most of that energy will be quickly shunted northeast and eventually
absorbed by the long wave trough that will deepen into the
Mississippi Valley on Friday. Tonight and Thursday will be warmer
than normal with temps possibly reaching 90 in a few spots Thursday
afternoon. PoPs will be relatively low as a front lifts north across
the region. The upper trough will help to drive a cold front
into the Southeast. The front should be crossing Alabama by 00Z
Saturday with rain chances increasing substantially on Friday.
Most of the area will see likely PoPs for Friday with somewhat
lower rain chances across the eastern FL Big Bend. The increasing
clouds and rain chances will shave a couple of degrees off max
temps. However, with dew points in the lower 70s, it will feel
quite muggy, especially for October.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
An approaching cold front is now fcst to push rapidly through the
CWA on Friday night, with any remaining showers and storms coming
to an end by Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the
best forcing out ahead of this front will remain well to our
north, so no strong or severe storms are expected at this time.
However, this will be a strong cold front in terms of changing air
masses, as our first real taste of fall weather is ushered in
behind it. High temps will generally be in the upper 70s on both
Sat. and Sun. with much drier air, before a gradual moderating
trend returns them back into the lower to middle 80s for Mon. and
Tue. The greatest impact behind the front will be low
temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in the upper 40s to
the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.


.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will dominate the marine area through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of our next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind the front Friday night and Saturday.
With a fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong
cold front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.


.Fire Weather...
Relative humidities will dip into the upper 20s and low 30s this
weekend in the wake of a cold front passage, however at this time it
appears the 20 foot winds will likely be too low to produce red flag
conditions.


.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals with the next frontal passage Friday are expected to
generally be an inch or less, which will not cause significant rises
on our area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   89  69  90  71  88 /  10  10  20  20  60
Panama City   87  73  87  74  86 /  10  10  30  30  50
Dothan        88  66  89  70  86 /  10  10  20  30  60
Albany        88  66  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  30  60
Valdosta      87  66  89  68  88 /  10  10  20  20  50
Cross City    88  68  89  68  88 /  20  20  30  20  40
Apalachicola  85  72  85  74  85 /  10  10  20  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...GOULD/WOOL







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