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Area Forecast Discussion

774
FXUS62 KTAE 231729
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
129 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

ISO TSRA is remaining confined to the coast at this hour and is
struggling to move further inland due to the dry air intrusion
aloft. As a result, removed VCTS from TLH for now. Isolated
passing TSRA remains possible later this afternoon at ECP. VFR
conditions expected otherwise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1033 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Area remains on the eastern side of an upper level ridge, but there
is some weakening across the CWA as an upper low nears the eastern
coast of Florida this evening. The seabreeze will remain the main
driving force behind convection today and given this have confined
the higher PoP chances across Florida and portions of southern
Georgia and Alabama. While convection will likely be ongoing across
the marine area this morning, the better chance of initiation over
land will be after 18z. Overall may see a similar day to yesterday
with potentially slightly less coverage across the eastern area
where PWs indicate a slightly drier airmass (still enough moisture
for convection though).

Maximum temperatures will mainly be in the mid 90s again with
isolated areas of Georgia reaching the upper 90s. Heat indicies will
reach the 100-105 range.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
A weak upper level disturbance east of the Florida Peninsula will
drift westward on Sunday. With this feature approaching and the
mid level ridge weakening, expect better shower and thunderstorm
chances in the afternoon, especially across the Florida Panhandle
and into Southeastern Alabama. By Monday, as the upper level
disturbance drifts further west, expect afternoon thunderstorms to
return to a more typical pattern under light southerly flow, with
the best coverage along and south of I-10.

Afternoon high temperatures won`t be as warm the next couple of
days due in part to all the expected convection as highs are
expected to only be in the low to mid 90s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Model guidance is in fairly good agreement that ridging aloft will
begin to build back over the region by Wednesday. With the ridge
in place, rain chances from Wednesday through the end of the
period should be below normal in the afternoon hours. PoPs only in
the 20 to 30 percent range are in this portion of the forecast.
With the ridge returning and lower rain chances, high
temperatures should be on the increase by the latter portion of
the period, with some locations topping out in the upper 90s.


.MARINE...
Light winds and low seas are expected for the next several days.
An approaching upper level disturbance will increase thunderstorm
chances across the area on Sunday. A more typical summertime
pattern will return by Tuesday with thunderstorms becoming more
isolated.


.FIRE WEATHER...
With RH values above critical thresholds, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...
Another day of lower thunderstorm coverage suggests little or no
flood concerns today. On Sunday, an approaching upper level
disturbance should help increase thunderstorm coverage. With
relatively light steering flow, some localized flooding is
possible with these storms, especially across the Florida
Panhandle. However, there are no widespread flood concerns at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  93  74  94  74 /  10  40  20  30  20
Panama City   78  88  78  89  78 /  20  50  20  40  20
Dothan        74  94  73  93  73 /  10  40  20  50  20
Albany        74  96  74  95  73 /  10  30  20  30  20
Valdosta      73  95  72  95  73 /  20  40  30  30  20
Cross City    74  93  73  95  74 /  20  40  40  30  20
Apalachicola  78  89  77  89  76 /  20  50  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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