« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » TAE Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version     Surrounding:  BMX  MRX  FFC  CAE  TAE  
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

345
FXUS62 KTAE 261937
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AS OF 18Z...WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THAT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOSTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGER AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN...NEAR THE
RESERVOIRS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EXISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA (80-100 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS). A FEW OF THE STORMS IN
THE EASTERN BIG BEND OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AT A
COUPLE OF OBSERVATION SITES IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AROUND
50 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S FROM AROUND
ALBANY, GA NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE
20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INLAND FROM
THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX
OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER LIKELY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BECOMING MVFR TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY AND REMAINING LOW AT LEAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...THE FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MET. RH VALUES OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY. THUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   63  71  39  65  45 /  80  40   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   59  67  46  62  50 /  70  30   0  10  10
DOTHAN        53  64  38  62  42 /  70  20   0  10  10
ALBANY        57  66  35  61  42 /  70  30   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      62  73  39  62  44 /  70  60   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    65  75  42  66  46 /  70  80   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  65  73  46  63  51 /  80  40   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.