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Area Forecast Discussion

585
FXUS62 KTAE 181913
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
313 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The period begins with mid/upper trough over NE Gulf region
providing some lift. At surface...low south of FL panhandle this
afternoon with diffuse warm front ewd across Nrn Gulf of Mex. Satellite
currently shows a mid level dry slot advancing across Panhandle
but ample rain shield elsewhere with several bands of moderate
rain across SE AL and the Ern Big Bend and adjacent GA. As of 2 PM
EDT...24 rainfall totals ranged from 3 to 4 inches over Wrn
portions of SE AL and adjacent Walton County and generally 2 to 2
1/2 inches elsewhere.

Before midnight, surface low will strengthen as it moves ENE along
frontal boundary. During the overnight hours...weakened H5 low moves
to FL Panhandle by 06z while surface low gradually lifts to NE FL by
06z and SE GA by 12Z. This will focus rain thru sunrise across NE
third of CWA along and north of low/front. Most High-Res guidance
continue to show modest wrap around moisture behind low moving
onshore after midnight. So rain will continue, however intensity will
begin to taper off thru sunrise from locally heavy to moderate to
light from SW-NE. This reflected in model soundings which show
that lower level flow has shifted to NW by sunrise but PWATs remain
around 1 inch. Will go with 40-80% SW-NE POP gradient 00z-06z then
20-70% 06z-12z. Grounds will remain saturated across the CWA and
will be monitored for any localized flooding. With nearly stacked
low...cant discount a slight chance of tstms south of there...mainly
SE Big Bend in eve. Expect lows from upper 40s SE AL/Panhandle to
mid-upper 50s SE Big Bend and adjacent GA counties.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Mid/upper level shortwave trough remains quite progressive and
will be exiting the area through the day tomorrow. Expect low
clouds and chance of light showers will linger into the morning
with clearing spreading from sw-ne across the region through the
day with ern/central GA counties the last to clear. In the wake of this
system, seasonably cool temperatures and gusty north winds will
invade the region. Tricky max T forecast for Saturday with much
depending on when and how much clearing develops. Have opted for
a blend with highs holding in the lower to mid 60s over central
GA and around 70 into parts of sern AL and the FL panhandle/ern
Big Bend. Otherwise, expect weather to improve significantly
during the holiday weekend with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures topping out in the mid 70s inland and lower 70s along
the beaches Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights
should range in the lower 50s.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through
Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds
in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and
lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is
a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went
with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be
seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]...IFR ceilings will plague the region until
mid-morning tomorrow. The rain will end later tonight as the Gulf
low moves northeast out of the region. Winds will shift to the
northwest late this evening.

&&

.Marine...
Surface low will move across the Apalachee Bay tonight with gusty
north winds overspreading the area in its wake through tomorrow.
Although much of the clouds and rain will be exiting the area from
west to east Saturday, winds and seas will remain up into Sunday.
A small craft advisory will remain in effect from tonight through
the day Saturday. Conditions will improve by Sunday morning into early
next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues
(i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...
Many locations in the region are reporting 2+ inches of rain already
and the rain will last until late evening or even longer for the
northern portion of the region. Many of the area rivers are in minor
flood stage and a few are in moderate flood stage. The
Choctawhatchee River is rising quickly and is expected to reach
major flood stage near Bruce around midnight. The Flint River and
the Ochlockonee River are rising steadily and will begin to fall
early next week. The Suwannee River is rising steadily and will do
so until at least mid next week. Many locations will get another 1-2
inches of rain today.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  66  51  75  53 /  70  20  10   0   0
Panama City   51  70  54  75  59 /  50  10   0   0   0
Dothan        48  68  49  74  53 /  70  30  10   0   0
Albany        50  65  49  74  51 /  80  40  20   0   0
Valdosta      55  65  50  74  52 /  80  40  20   0   0
Cross City    59  70  51  76  53 /  60  20  10   0  10
Apalachicola  56  69  54  72  58 /  50  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-
     Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...EVANS
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...EVANS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT






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