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Area Forecast Discussion

833
FXUS62 KTAE 281025
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
625 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...

Scattered LIFR visibilities over parts of the FL Panhandle this
morning, though not at any sites in the CWA. This afternoon,
scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across
the area, mainly between 18-22Z, and dissipating in the evening
hours around 00-03Z. Outside of thunderstorms, expect VFR
conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [310 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Upper level ridging has retreated westward, now focused over the
southwestern states and northwestern Mexico. Meanwhile, an upper
level +PV anomaly will push into the Great Lakes this morning and
slowly swing eastward through the day, amplifying the upper level
pattern as it does so. At the surface, a weak cold front is evident
across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and mid-Mississippi Valley.
This front will push southeastward today, increasing afternoon
chances for showers and thunderstorms beyond what we`d normally see
from just the sea-breeze. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Shortwave trough will move across southern Canada tonight and
Wednesday which will effectively deepen the eastern CONUS longwave
trough and support a weakening cold front or surface trough axis
across the tri state region Wednesday into Thursday. A wind shift
to the northwest will provide the needed low level convergence to
spark showers and storms across our AL/GA counties while the
seabreeze front will spark storms across FL on Wednesday. The
surface feature will lose its identity Thursday as it sags towards
the coast and slightly drier air works into AL/GA. Shifted better
POPs towards FL and our extreme southern SW GA counties. Needless
to say, we will have above average POPs in the short term with
high temperatures running around average.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

The east CONUS trough weakens to more zonal flow across the
southeast states beginning this weekend as the Bermuda High
reasserts itself across the Gulf of Mexico into Texas. Drier air
in the column and decreasing PWATs will lead to decreasing POPs
chances Sun-Tue, especially with the mid level high center moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As you would expect, high
temperatures will return to slightly above normal levels and heat
index values will be in the low to mid 100s by the start of the
next work week.


.MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore flow and low seas will prevail through
the weekend. This will produce a light to moderate chop across the
waters and isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated
into this weekend as well.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Humidity and soil moisture will remain too high to cause dangerous
fire weather conditions for the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over the next
several days, becoming more isolated towards late weekend and
early next week. Isolated areas of up to 2 inches of rainfall will
be possible over the coming days. No widespread flood concerns are
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   95  74  92  74  91 /  40  30  50  20  40
Panama City   89  77  86  77  86 /  30  20  40  20  40
Dothan        92  73  90  73  91 /  40  50  30  20  30
Albany        94  72  91  73  93 /  50  50  40  20  30
Valdosta      95  72  90  72  91 /  40  40  50  30  40
Cross City    93  74  92  74  91 /  30  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  91  77  88  77  87 /  20  10  30  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Scholl



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