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Area Forecast Discussion

671
FXUS62 KTAE 270118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PASSING UP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A HUMID NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT EAST OR VARIABLE BREEZE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

ONCE AREA CONVECTION DIES OUT THROUGH 02-03Z...QUIET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER MORE SATURATED GROUNDS...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND A WEAK WIND FIELD...SHORT-LIVED NEAR SUNRISE
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR DECKS. HIREZ MODELING FOCUSES EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST CLOSER TO DHN AND ECP AND THEN PROGRESSES
SCATTERED TSRA EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN VICINITY CONVECTION...IFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN PERIODS +TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  88  69  89  66 /  70  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   74  85  71  84  70 /  50  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        69  87  67  89  65 /  70  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    71  90  66  90  64 /  60  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



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