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Area Forecast Discussion

937
FXUS62 KTAE 101418
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...

No significant changes were made to the previous forecast for
today. High pressure will build in at the surface today with WNW
winds aloft. The area will remain dry through the near term. Winds
will be a little gusty at times today but not as windy as the
previous two days. Highs will remain on the cooler side today will
the upper 40s to lower 50s across Georgia and Alabama to the low
to mid 50s across Florida. For Tallahassee, this will be more than
10 degrees below normal.

&&

.Prev Discussion [622 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Another night of clear and chilly conditions are expected across
the region tonight. The big question though is how low
temperatures will go. Forecast dewpoints for Wednesday afternoon
show us dropping into the low teens, and with surface high
pressure nearly overhead by sunset, expect temperatures to plummet
quickly after sunset with the calm winds. Ordinarily, this pattern
would suggest a hard freeze, given the chilly and dry airmass and
calm winds. However, model guidance isn`t going especially cold,
likely due in part to some weak moisture return as the surface
high slides east of the region by sunrise. While it`s possible
that some areas could see low temperatures on Thursday morning
around 25 degrees, confidence in duration or location is not high
enough to justify a hard freeze watch at this time, thus a only a
freeze watch was issued.

The short term warming trend will kick off on Thursday and
continue into Friday as southerly flow becomes more established
ahead of the next dry cold front that will approach the region
late on Friday. High temperatures on Thursday will return to the
mid 60s and even into the lower 70s by Friday.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
After a dry cold front passes through the region late Friday,
drier and somewhat cooler air will return for the weekend as an
area of high pressure becomes established across the Eastern
Carolina coast. Model guidance is in good agreement that dry
conditions through the weekend will give way to increasing rain
chances by Monday afternoon as the next storm system approaches
the region. Both the GFS and Euro show this system being fairly
progressive, so rain chances should be maximized to a 12-24 hour
period from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon, if not even
a little shorter. This system should have only a little cooler
weather behind it, so temperatures will be on the increase on
Wednesday as surface high pressure builds across the Gulf of
Mexico.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. WNW to NW
winds will increase this morning with speeds of 10-15kts and gusts
to 22kts.


.Marine...
Winds will gradually diminish this afternoon as high pressure
moves nearer to the marine area. The small craft advisory
continues through late this afternoon. High pressure will remain
over or near the marine area through Friday before a dry cold
front moves through the waters, resulting in an increase in
offshore winds to near cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag warning criteria across Florida is very borderline for
today. While it will be dry today and RH clearly meets criteria,
winds fall around 1-2 mph short of criteria. A few places are
meeting the ERC criteria, but with the winds falling just short,
will not issue a red flag warning for Florida for today. If winds
trend stronger than expected though, red flag criteria would be
met in some areas.

Fuels are dry across Georgia and Alabama and thus despite the dry
conditions and marginal winds, red flag warning criteria will not
be met.

RH values will increase after today for the rest of the week and
thus no fire weather concerns for Thursday and Friday.


.Hydrology...
Over on the Choctawhatchee, both Caryville and Bruce have crested,
with Caryville likely to drop below flood stage later today. Bruce
will take a little longer to drop, remaining above moderate flood
stage through Friday night.

The Chattahoochee is largely returning to normal flows and with
inflows from the Flint continuing to decrease with the crest there
now below Bainbridge, releases out of Woodruff down the
Apalachicola River continue to decrease, dropping below 55 kcfs
later today. With further reductions expected in releases, the
river at Blountstown will continue to drop through the remainder
of this week. Note that flooding in the lower portion of the
Apalachicola Basin from Wewahitchka through Howard Creek will
continue at minor levels through the weekend.

Over on the Withlacoochee River, crests have occurred through the
US-84 crossing. Pinetta continues to rise and should crest a
couple feet below flood stage this weekend. Increased flows down
the Withlacoochee and Upper Suwannee will result in steady rises
continuing throughout the Middle Suwannee Basin through the
weekend, though this will stay well below action levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  27  65  48  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   53  36  64  55  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        50  28  65  45  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        49  26  62  43  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      52  27  63  46  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    55  27  62  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  54  35  63  55  67 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning FOR
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon FOR Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/FIEUX
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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