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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 011422

1022 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
An area of low pressure has developed on a stalled front near the
northeast Gulf Coast and this will help to funnel very moist
tropical air into the southeastern portion of the forecast area
today. The 12Z KTAE sounding showed an impressive PW of 2.28
inches. According to NESDIS, GPS PW values as high as 2.55 inches
exist over Perry. We expect to see a continuation of tropical
rains funneling into this region to the south of the low. Cross
City has already measured 4.4 inches of rain since midnight and
could easily see another 6 inches though Sunday with locally
higher amounts. The latest set of ECAM runs show a mean QPF of 10
inches across western Dixie and southern Taylor Counties! A flash
flood watch remains in effect. Flood potential for the counties
along the northwestern edge of the watch area is far less certain,
but we plan no changes to the watch this morning.


[Through 12Z Sunday] IFR ceilings at ABY and VLD should lift by
midday. Thereafter, numerous showers and thunderstorms will
occasionally reduce cigs/vsby back down to MVFR or IFR. Overnight,
another round of IFR ceilings could develop at ABY, VLD and
possibly TLH. Look for an update in that direction with the 18Z
TAF set.


An area of low pressure that has developed on a stalled front has
increased the pressure gradient across the northeast Gulf of
Mexico resulting is unseasonably strong winds. Small craft
advisory conditions have been observed over the southeastern
portion of the forecast area with seas as high as 8 feet. We did
increase the seas forecast over what the wave model was giving us
to match buoy observations. The elevated winds should continue
through Sunday. After the system exits early next week, winds and
seas will quickly return to normal levels.


.Prev Discussion [342 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
A frontal zone stalled across the region will continue to be a
focus for shower and thunderstorm development through at least
Sunday. The air mass south of this boundary is quite moist, with
precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches. Hi-res guidance
continues to indicate the potential for very heavy rainfall
tonight into Sunday across the Florida Big Bend, particularly to
the east of the Aucilla River. The mean of the ECAM guidance is
above 5 inches from tonight through Sunday morning, with
individual members suggesting significantly heavier totals are
possible. Will continue the flash flood watch through tonight, and
then evaluate in future forecasts whether an extension into the
daytime hours on Sunday is needed based on Saturday`s rainfall

Drier air on the north side of the boundary will make a little
further progress southward by Monday, resulting in a fairly tight
PoP gradient across the region at the end of the short term
period. Moreover, the boundary becomes less defined by Monday, so
expect rain chances, even in the Florida Big Bend to be a little
lower than over the weekend.

Convection on Sunday will keep temperatures generally in the upper
80s to lower 90s in the Florida Big Bend, but with more isolated
coverage across Srn AL and SW GA, expect highs in the mid to upper
90s. Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected across the
entire region on Monday afternoon, with heat indices in the mid

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The subtropical ridge will become more established across the
Florida Peninsula and Eastern Gulf by Tuesday, signaling a return
to a typical summertime pattern of scattered afternoon and evening
storms. By Thursday, model guidance has a storm system moving
through the Southern Appalachians. It`s expected that this system
will enhance afternoon/evening convection by the weekend across
the region, with rain chances moving back to near 50 percent. High
temperatures throughout the period will continue to be warm,
generally in the mid 90s inland and lower 90s at the coast.

.Fire Weather...
There are no fire weather concerns through early next week.

Rainfall amounts on Friday were locally heavy across the
Southeastern Florida Big Bend and across portions of Southwestern
Georgia. With the very moist air mass still in place across far
Southern Georgia and into the Florida Big Bend, a flash flood
watch remains in effect through Saturday night. Model guidance
indicates the heaviest rain amounts will be across the
Southeastern Florida Big Bend, where 3 to 4 inches of rain should
be common over the next couple of days.

With the bulk of the heavy rainfall expected to fall across the
Southern portion of the area, and the lower part of the river
basins, the potential for river flooding in the days ahead is low.
Only the Steinhatchee River is anticipated to reach flood stage at
this time based on the latest QPF forecasts.

With the flash flood watch in effect, the primary concern will be
flooding in slow drainage areas, as rainfall rates should easily
exceed 3-4 in/hr with many of the storms on Saturday/Saturday


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   90  76  92  75  95 /  80  60  50  40  30
Panama City   88  76  90  75  90 /  70  50  40  30  30
Dothan        91  73  95  73  96 /  50  40  30  10  20
Albany        91  74  95  74  96 /  60  40  30  10  20
Valdosta      88  75  92  74  94 /  80  60  50  40  30
Cross City    85  76  86  75  88 / 100  80  80  50  50
Apalachicola  87  77  87  77  88 /  70  60  60  40  40


FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR Calhoun-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday morning FOR Berrien-Brooks-

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT Sunday FOR Coastal waters
     from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.




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