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Area Forecast Discussion

583
FXUS62 KTAE 051401
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1001 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS MORNING IN A CONVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TODAY IMPACTING OUR SOUTHEAST
BIG BEND COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A BROKEN DECK
OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [409 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS LOCALLY
WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE
LOCALLY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR LOWS...EXCEPT MID 60S FOR LOWS ALONG THE COAST.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST STILL LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN
THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE PATTERN MAY START TO BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE AGAIN WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED.
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
POPS STILL APPEAR TO BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EASTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 10 TO 12 KNOTS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE COULD
BE ONE OR TWO AIRPORTS THAT EXPERIENCE BRIEF IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT FOG
LATE TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY.


.MARINE...

EASTERLY WINDS RANGING FROM CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVELS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL
EASTERLY WIND SURGE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY LOWER WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DEEP MIXING AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE DISPERSION VALUES TO
BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA.


.HYDROLOGY...

WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL DECLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  63  88  62  87 /  10   0   0   0  10
PANAMA CITY   80  64  83  64  82 /   0  10   0   0  10
DOTHAN        82  60  85  61  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALBANY        84  60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      84  61  87  61  86 /  10   0  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    81  61  88  61  87 /  30  10  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  82  65  83  66  82 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...TD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...TD
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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