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Area Forecast Discussion

874
FXUS62 KTAE 311457
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1057 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Fog and low clouds are hanging in still northeast of a line from
Enterprise, AL down to Carrabelle, FL, but should burn off over
the next hour or so. Local radar imagery shows some scattered
thunderstorms offshore in the northeastern Gulf associated with
the remnants of Erika. Convection is still expected to develop
northward through the day as the trough slowly drifts north-
northeast. In our forecast area, this will mean the storms
focusing rain over the southeast Big Bend and coastal waters. Over
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia, more isolated convection
will be possible as a weak upper level shortwave trough passes
through northern Alabama and Georgia.

&&

.Prev Discussion [601 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A variety of 00Z model runs show a MCV, resulting from convection
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, drifting slowly north into the
Florida Big Bend region by Tuesday. There wasn`t much evidence of
a circulation aloft yet in the TBW or KEY soundings from yesterday
evening, or in the GOES derived wind fields. However, this MCV is
expected to emanate from convective activity in the next 12-18
hours. There is some difference on the precise trajectory, with
some models showing the circulation situated just east of our
forecast area on Tuesday, with others showing it close to
Tallahassee. This would obviously have big implications on the
forecast, as the MCV will likely be situated near a precipitable
water gradient. Most of the rain will likely occur along and east
of the track of that low. Given these uncertainties, PoPs were not
bumped too high yet in the eastern Big Bend counties, but the
highest rain chances were placed along a line from Apalachicola,
to Tallahassee, to Valdosta and areas southeast of that. That
configuration of PoPs was maintained from Tuesday into Wednesday.

More confidence in the distribution of PoPs should be gained today
as the convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico evolves. It`s
quite possible that PoPs and sky cover will need to be further
increased in the southeast part of our forecast area, with a
reduction in the diurnal temperature range as well. Elsewhere in
the area, some isolated showers and storms will be possible with
generally mostly to partly sunny skies.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Although there are definitely some differences in the details of
how the various global models unfold the upper level flow pattern
in the extended, but they generally show an area of lower heights
in the vicinity of our region. This should maintain some chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the
forecast, with temperatures generally near normal.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]...

A solid deck of LIFR ceilings is spreading southwest this morning
across the region. Expect LIFR to prevail at all but ECP for a
couple hours after sunrise. Then, VFR will prevail for the
remainder of the TAF. Have included VCSH at DHN and ABY later this
afternoon, with no other sites expected to receive rain.


.Marine...

Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast
period, other than in or near thunderstorm activity.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in the Florida Big Bend or
south-central Georgia over the next few days, particularly on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread flooding or flooding on the
primary rivers is not expected, but some flooding of low-lying or
urbanized areas will be possible.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  75  92 /  10  10  40  20  40
Panama City   89  76  88  76  88 /  10  10  30  20  30
Dothan        90  72  93  73  92 /  20   0  20  10  20
Albany        89  73  91  74  91 /  10   0  20  10  30
Valdosta      90  72  90  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  50
Cross City    89  75  89  75  90 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  88  76  89  77  89 /  20  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS



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