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Area Forecast Discussion

106
FXUS62 KTAE 270823
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
323 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

We continue to see a highly amplified pattern across North America
this Thanksgiving morning with a trough over the east and a ridge
out west. The good news is that the trough is finally beginning to
lift out. At the surface, another cold front (a dry one this time)
will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to the region. Daytime
highs, despite full sunshine, will only range from the mid 50s for
areas north of a ABY-DHN line to the lower 60s across the southern
FL Big Bend. This is 10-12 degrees below normal. These cool temps
will be made to feel even more brisk with the addition of some gusty
northwest winds.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will move
east over the western Atlantic with deep layer ridging gradually
building in over the local region. The position of the surface high
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley by daybreak Friday.
Overnight winds will be light from the north but we still should
see a light freeze across most inland areas. Highs will remain below
average Friday (mid to upper 50s). Another light freeze is possible
Friday night, mainly along and east of the river. With rising
heights as the upper ridge builds in, temps will be warmer on
Saturday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The deep layer ridge will hold through Sunday then move east with
the upper flow becoming nearly zonal through the remainder of the
period. The next cold front will approach late Thursday but any rain
with this system should hod off until Thursday night or Friday.
Highs will be seasonal in the lower 70s with lows in the gradually
moderating from the lower to mid 40s Saturday night to the lower
50s by Wednesday night.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail
through the period. The only impact to aviation weather will be
gusty northwest winds during the daylight hours. Gusts will be up
around 20 mph.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level conditions will continue across the marine area
through late morning with cautionary conditions this afternoon.
Winds and seas are expected to increase to advisory levels once
again after midnight diminishing below headline criteria Friday
afternoon. Low winds and seas are forecast for this weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air has finally arrived
today and will remain in place for several days. The driest day will
be Friday. However, winds will not be high enough to achieve red
flag criteria on that day. Additionally, fuel moisture is high after
several days of rain. High dispersion indices are expected once
again today with values around 75 across parts of Southeast AL and
inland portions of the central and eastern FL Big Bend.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  32  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   60  39  56  41  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        56  32  55  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        57  30  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      58  31  56  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    62  32  58  31  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  63  39  57  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




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