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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 270743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
343 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Low and mid-level ridging will prevail through today, with dry air
aloft resulting in unseasonably low PWAT values. This means another
afternoon of low rain chances, with highs near or just slightly
above normal. The best chance for rain will be across the southeast
Big Bend and near the immediate Panhandle coast. With the bulk of
the moisture below 850mb, expect mostly shallow showers where it
does rain.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

We will see little change in the overall pattern with the deep
easterly flow continuing as east to west oriented ridging remains
north of the local region. Atmospheric moisture will gradually
increase especially on Monday as moisture associated with a tropical
disturbance begins to surge northward up the Florida peninsula and
eastern gulf. There still remains a lot of uncertainty with the
possible development and track of this feature but additional impact
on our weather, if any, will be beyond the short term period. The
highest PoPs through the period (30-50%) will mainly be across the
Florida zones and local coastal waters. High temperatures will be
in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The extended forecast is complicated because there hasn`t been
any run to run consistency between the models in handling the
evolution (strength and position) of the tropical disturbance
which is forecast to be in the eastern gulf at the beginning of
the period. The 00z GFS tracks a weak system slowly to the
northwest and then inland over LA on Thursday. The latest ECMWF
tracks a very weak system westward into the central gulf on
Wednesday before dissipating this feature in the western gulf on
Thursday. Due to the uncertainty, we will not make any significant
changes to the current extended forecast at this time. Regardless
of development, people in our forecast area, especially at the
coast, should at least prepare for the possibility of heavy rain
and hazardous boating and beach conditions next week.


.AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF with the possibility of
a few showers at ECP and VLD late in the afternoon.



With a surface ridge to our north, winds will continue from the east
at moderate levels during the overnight and early morning hours, but
become lighter (especially at the coast) during the afternoon and
early evening hours. By early next week the conditions will depend
greatly on the development and track of a disturbance disturbance
currently approaching south Florida.



Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.



No organized heavy rain is expected through Monday. By Tuesday the
threat for heavy rain may begin to increase, though the global
models have the heaviest rain totals over the Gulf of Mexico and
across central FL.



Tallahassee   93  75  93  74  92 /  20  10  30  10  30
Panama City   90  77  89  77  90 /  30  20  30  10  30
Dothan        93  73  92  73  92 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        94  73  94  73  94 /  20   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      94  74  93  73  92 /  20   0  30  10  30
Cross City    92  75  92  74  90 /  30  10  30  10  50
Apalachicola  89  78  89  77  89 /  20  20  30  20  40






NEAR TERM...Harrigan

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