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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 241059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
659 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected for today. TSRA is forecast again
today with the better chances across the TLH to ECP area. There
is already SHRA south of the TAF sites and an earlier start (late
morning) of TSRA is possible today.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A closed upper level low is positioned off the eastern coast of
Florida this morning and will slide across the Florida peninsula
today. With this south of the CWA today, the main focus will
continue to be the seabreeze. Hi-res models are consistent with
increased convection across the marine area this morning. Could see
a slightly earlier start to convection across land today, but
overall should be fairly similar to yesterday as it appears the
upper level low will be too far from the CWA to enhance convection
during the day. Have confined the highest PoPs (40-50%) across the
far western portions of the CWA, mainly across Florida with a
secondary max at the far eastern edge accounting for storms moving
in from the east late in the day.

High temperatures this afternoon will range from the low to mid 90s
inland to upper 80s to lower 90s along the immediate coast. This
will lead to heat indicies mainly in the lower 100s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

After mainly dry conditions tonight, an upper low will move over our
region through Monday as it moves northwest through the eastern
Gulf into the northern Gulf coast. This may enhance precipitation
chances west of Tallahassee, so highest PoPs were placed in the
Panhandle and SE Alabama on Monday afternoon/early evening. PWATs
should also be highest in these areas as well, with some mid-
level dry air likely impacting SW Georgia and the FL Big Bend
region, leading to more sparse coverage of scattered showers and
storms in central and eastern parts of our CWA.

The upper low should move west of our region and begin to
dissipate on Tuesday, but PWAT values are likely to increase to
around 2" by Tuesday afternoon. Once the sea breeze moves inland,
there will be a decent chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms
again across much of our area. On both Monday and Tuesday,
temperatures will remain near average, with highs in the low-mid
90s and lows in the 70s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

A typical summer pattern will remain in place over our area, with
deep-layer high pressure entrenched over our region. Coverage of
scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early
evening during this period should be generally less than earlier
in the week, since PWAT values are projected to dip well below 2"
and there will not likely be any significant forcing at upper
levels. A pocket of relatively dry air at mid levels is currently
projected to be centered over northern Florida and SW Georgia on
Thursday and Friday, so only went with slight chance PoPs during
these days. Temperatures will be near to slightly above average
during this period; inland, highs in the mid 90s and lows in the
mid 70s will prevail. Near the coast, expect highs in the upper
80s and lows in the upper 70s.


Generally light winds will persist through next week, resulting in
seas of 2 feet or less. Scattered thunderstorms will be enhanced
by the upper low early next week, with coverage of showers/storms becoming
more isolated through the remainder of the period.


There are no fire weather concerns over the next few days.


No widespread flooding concerns are anticipated throughout the
period. However, isolated/localized flooding can`t be ruled out
through early next week with increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, along with weak
steering flow.



Tallahassee   95  75  93  74  91 /  30  10  30  10  40
Panama City   89  78  88  78  87 /  50  10  50  20  50
Dothan        94  73  93  73  92 /  30  10  40  20  40
Albany        96  74  94  73  94 /  20  10  30  20  30
Valdosta      95  73  94  74  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
Cross City    93  73  93  74  92 /  40  20  30  30  30
Apalachicola  90  78  89  77  88 /  40  20  30  20  40







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