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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 010008

808 PM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A mid level cut off low lays over Indiana. This low has an
associated strong +PV anomaly that is aiding in some mid-level cloud
cover and even a few stray showers in our Alabama and Georgia
counties. At the lower levels, this anomaly is also enhancing a
lower level jet and pushing in a dry cold front at the surface. This
dry cold front lies to our northwest stretching across northern
Alabama, Mississippi, and into the Arklatex. As we head into the
evening, these showers in Alabama and Georgia will continue to
dissipate, while winds will begin to increase and temperatures will
begin to drop noticeably. Lows tonight will range from the mid to
upper 30s to the low 40s, with the coolest temperatures in southeast
Alabama and the warmest temperatures along the immediate coast and
in the Florida Big Bend.


[Through 00Z Sunday] VFR conditions will prevail this TAF period.
Winds will begin to increase out of the NW overnight and continue
through the end of the TAF period. Gusts of 25KT are possible
especially at ABY and DHN.


.Prev Discussion [455 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
A high-amplitude, but progressive long wave pattern will continue
across the country through this period. The upper trough axis will
be over the area Saturday morning and then shift east with the
upstream ridge axis over the Mississippi Valley by Sunday night. A
reinforcing shot of colder air will arrive with the passage of
another cold front overnight. This air mass will make it feel like
mid winter with daytime highs on Saturday only reaching the upper
50s and lower 60s. That`s 15 to 20 degrees below normal. It will
also be quite breezy adding an apparent chill to the area.

This will set the stage for the coldest night of the season thus far
on Saturday night. Much of the guidance is calling for a light
freeze across our mainly our northern zones. However, the high
position over Kentucky is not ideal for realizing these temps so
early in the season. Typically, we want the high centered much
closer to the Gulf Coast. We have also noted that the MOS tends to
have a cold bias with the first couple of arctic outbreaks in the
fall. For this reason, we are keeping temps just above freezing.
Winds should stay up across most of the forecast area. However,
eastern areas may decouple for a few hours and this would allow for
some possible frost formation. We have included areas of frost over
our South Central GA and inland eastern FL Big Bend zones.

As heights rise, temps will moderate a a few degrees on Sunday. More
of the area will see winds decouple on Sunday night with fairly
uniform mid 30s for lows. We will include a mention of frost for
several inland areas.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The upper ridge will be over the area early next week with a warming
trend being the result. By Wednesday afternoon, temps will be back
to seasonal levels in the upper 70s to near 80. There is still a lot
of uncertainty in the evolution of the pattern and its impacts on
our weather for the latter part of next week. It appears that an
upper low will cut off from the main flow either over northern
Mexico or the Southwest U.S. by Wednesday. This low will then move
eastward. The GFS is much faster than the ECMWF in bringing this low
to the Gulf Coast, even going so far as to develop a surface low
over the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and moving that low
eastward across the central Gulf. At this time, we favor the slower
solution and will keep PoPs minimal for the end of the week.

A cold front will sweep across the Northeast Gulf overnight with
strong gusty winds arriving in its wake. While sustained gales are
not likely, frequent gust to 35-40 knots justify the gale warning
that is in effect. Winds will peak around sunrise Saturday with
offshore seas occasionally reaching as high as 15-17 ft. High
pressure will start to build southeastward toward the waters later
in the weekend with conditions dropping below headline criteria by
mid morning Sunday. As high pressure moves east off the Southeast
U.S. coast, winds over the Gulf of Mexico will veer to the east by
Sunday night. This pattern will persist into Wednesday with winds
surging to cautionary levels each night through the period.

.Fire Weather...
The fire weather watch for Saturday has been updated based on the
latest forecast ERC values. The watch has been expanded to include
Walton, Holmes, Gadsden, Liberty, Franklin, Jefferson, Madison,
and Taylor counties, as well as the original four counties, Washington,
Bay, Leon, and Wakulla. Relative humidity values will dip to
around 26-27% in these counties and coincide with 20 ft winds
around 18 MPH with ERC values ranging from 27 to 40. These
conditions will occur due to a dry cold front moving into the area
overnight tonight.

Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no
impacts expected along area rivers and streams.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   41  60  35  65  36 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   43  61  40  65  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        36  58  34  63  38 /  20   0   0   0   0
Albany        38  59  33  64  36 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      40  59  34  63  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    43  60  34  66  35 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  43  61  39  65  45 /  10   0   0   0   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for Central Walton-Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM EDT Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT Saturday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal
     waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to
     60 NM.




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