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Area Forecast Discussion

972
FXUS62 KTAE 040829
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

With moist southerly low-level flow in place, fog is expected to
be widespread this morning, with areas of dense fog mainly west
of the river. The bulk of the fog will burn off by midday (outside
of some sea fog lingering right along the coast) with temperatures
warming into the 80s, thanks to a building ridge aloft. Forecast
high for Tallahassee is 82 degrees, just one degree short of the
daily record (83 degrees) set in 1992. A shower or two cannot be
ruled out over the western portion of the forecast area (closer to
the western edge of the ridge). However, the bulk of the rainfall
will remain north and west of the forecast area, closer to a
southward moving cold front.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

For tonight, we expect some combination of low stratus and fog
across the area as northward moisture flux continues in advance of
the approaching cold front. The fog could be dense in spots. The
front will arrive on Thursday, and should be accompanied by some
light-moderate showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Although
we have some low rain chances in the western part of our area
tonight, we expect most of the rain to arrive after 15Z Thursday
with the best chances focused between then and 00Z Friday. Likely
PoPs (~60%) are indicated, but an all-day washout is not expected.
Rain at any specific location may only last an hour or two. Models
still indicate falling temperatures behind the front, so the
trends may not be typical of what we usually see in the daytime
hours, primarily in the western half of the area where the front
will be more likely to arrive by midday. CAA will continue on
Thursday Night with a cool day in store on Friday with high
temperatures far below normal levels. This will be due to
lingering cloud cover, in addition to the CAA, behind the surface
cold front. For March 6th the normal high at TLH is 72 and our
forecast high is 54.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Through the extended period, models maintain west-southwesterly
flow aloft with occasional rain chances as a variety of waves
eject east. However, individual models differ on the timing with
dry periods indicated at times as well. As a compromise, we have
continued to forecast low rain chances through the period with
below normal high temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Thursday] Fog and low CIGS will impact all terminals
overnight, with KECP, KDHN, and KTLH occasionally reaching
airport minimums. Conditions will slowly improve during the
morning hours with MVFR/VFR conditions expected during the
afternoon. However, the low CIGS and vsby will likely return
shortly after sunset.

&&

.Marine...

The latest satellite imagery suggests that the low stratus and fog
has consolidated closer to the coast. Therefore, the Marine Dense
Fog Advisory has been reconfigured to be valid for the nearshore
legs until 16Z. The advisory may need to be extended further and
reconfigured again depending on trends today. Either way, we do
expect periods of fog across the coastal waters until the front
arrives - or through Thursday morning. Over that same time period,
winds should be around 10 knots. Behind the front on Thursday
afternoon, winds will veer to the north and increase to advisory
levels across at least part of the waters.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

The only river point remaining in flood stage is the Ochlockonee
River at Havana which will crest at 25.2 feet tonight before it
starts to fall. Rain totals this week should not be high enough to
cause significant rises on area rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   82  62  75  46  55 /  10  10  60  30  30
Panama City   73  63  67  43  54 /  20  20  50  20  30
Dothan        79  64  64  37  51 /  20  40  60  20  20
Albany        82  63  71  40  50 /  10  20  60  20  30
Valdosta      85  62  80  47  51 /  10  10  60  30  30
Cross City    82  61  79  56  60 /   0  10  20  30  30
Apalachicola  71  63  69  48  56 /  20  10  50  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ this morning for
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Leon-Liberty.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Baker-Calhoun-
     Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.

AL...None.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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