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Area Forecast Discussion

436
FXUS62 KTAE 242329
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
729 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 2 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a a broad area of
high pressure across much of the Gulf of Mexico, and a weak trough
from southeast AL through central GA. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a high height max over LA, with ample warm, dry air
aloft along the Gulf Coast. We expect fair weather to continue
overnight, as once again our local radar network remains
remarkably quiet for this time of year. Lows will be in the lower
to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Sunday]...

The consensus of NWP guidance and MOS indicate very little potential
for fog and/or low cigs overnight. SW winds 5 to 10 KT this
evening will become 5 KT or less and gradually veer to the W or NW
by dawn. A S-SW sea breeze around 10 KT will develop at KECP and
KTLH by mid afternoon Saturday. Scattered TSRA will develop across
central GA and AL mid to late afternoon, and some of these storms
could reach KABY and KDHN late. However, confidence in this
scenario is low at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [315 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will cover the Southeast on Saturday, with
heights and lower-tropospheric temperatures running about 2
standard deviations above normal. This will result in afternoon
highs nearing the century mark away from the coast, with apparent
temperatures around 105. Slightly below average PWAT`s will just
be exiting the region to the southwest, so the likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms remains quite low. On Sunday, however,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as a
shortwave currently moving through the Northern Plains moves
around the ridge and drops south into the region. Though showers
and thunderstorms are expected, they`ll likely start a bit later
in the afternoon, and with the anomalous ridge still in place
another afternoon of upper 90s should be expected.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Ridging will continue through the start of the week, though won`t
be quite anomalous as in the short term period. Through Tuesday,
PoPs will be governed by the varying afternoon seabreeze regimes,
with near normal coverage. Wednesday through Friday, a trough will
drop into the Southeast, introducing a frontal boundary that will
linger through the remainder of the period. Expect PoPs to be
higher than usual and forced along a combination of the seabreeze
and synoptic fronts. Monday will still features slightly above
normal highs, with afternoon highs settling back into the lower to
middle 90s for the remainder of the week.


.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected for the next
several days. The only exception will be near the coast each
afternoon in the seabreeze zone. Here, expect winds to peak around
10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  98  73  97  74 /   0  10   0  40  40
Panama City   75  88  77  89  77 /   0   0   0  20  10
Dothan        72  98  74  97  74 /   0  10  10  40  30
Albany        73  99  75  98  74 /   0  10  20  50  40
Valdosta      72  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  60  40
Cross City    72  95  72  94  73 /   0  10  10  50  30
Apalachicola  75  90  76  90  77 /   0  10   0  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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