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Area Forecast Discussion

013
FXUS62 KTAE 310719
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WE ARE AGAIN UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC. A
SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL INTERACT WITH A
FRONT STALLED ACROSS MIDDLE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. WHILE THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS, THE FORCING
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE. MODELS SHOW STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND ABOUT 1700 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. AGAIN, THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TO 20 NEAR THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 80.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...ORIENTED SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL GA...MAY STILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE APPEARS WEAKER THAN WHAT OBSERVED
ON MONDAY...THE PERSISTENT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (THAT ORIGINATED
IN THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU) WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AT LEAST
SOME THREAT FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY...BUT WEAK FORCING AND POOR THERMODYNAMICS (INCLUDING
MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE MID-LAYER LAPSE RATES) WILL LIMIT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINING SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. BOTH THE
00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THIS FRONT TO LOSE MUCH OF ITS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...SO RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO COOL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTY ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] THIS MORNING ALL TERMINALS WILL
HAVE IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSBILE AT DHN, ABY,
TLH AND VLD THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 18 AND 23Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR
TREND IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE QUITE
AS MUCH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. ON WEDNESDAY
DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE HIGH IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND. NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   82  62  82  60  82 /  30  20  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   75  65  75  62  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
DOTHAN        81  61  80  59  81 /  30  20  30  20  20
ALBANY        80  60  81  59  80 /  40  40  30  20  20
VALDOSTA      81  61  81  59  80 /  30  30  30  20  30
CROSS CITY    81  62  81  59  82 /  20  10  20  10  30
APALACHICOLA  76  65  77  62  76 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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