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Area Forecast Discussion

338
FXUS62 KTAE 241434
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ALREADY THIS MORNING THERE`S
BEEN A MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD CU FIELD ESTABLISHED, PARTICULARLY IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 90, EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS POTENTIAL IS GREATEST IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. FURTHER EAST, DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL
LIKELY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [647 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...
WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COLORADO WILL FILL TODAY, THE MEAN
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
IT. THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY WITH THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOVING OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND REMAINING THERE INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO
THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER
TO THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING. WESTERN AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME
ENHANCED LIFT FROM DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS WEST VS EAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ALL SEASON. METEOROLOGICAL
SPRING 2015 (MAR-MAY) IS SETTING UP TO BE THE WARMEST ON RECORD
AT TLH WITH JUST ONE MORE WEEK TO GO IN THE SEASON.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...
A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST LEAVING A WEAK PATTERN IN PLACE
ALOFT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK MAINTAINING A
MOIST ESE FLOW INTO THE REGION. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED, SLIGHTLY HIGHER WEST THAN EAST WITH A
SLIGHT DRYING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY AND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
CLIMO AT NIGHT.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY]... DHN WILL HAVE MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL 15Z,
AFTER WHICH ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS.


.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ALL
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURGES OF WIND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY HIGHEST AT NIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING. SPEEDS WILL REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS DURING THESE
PERIODS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL START A MOISTENING TREND AFTER A DRY COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINIMUM RH WILL STAY ABOVE 40 THROUGH THE PERIOD. DISPERSION
INDICES WILL BE ABOVE 75 FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND IN A FEW
SPOTS ON MONDAY DUE TO HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS.


.HYDROLOGY...
WITH AREA RIVERS AT NORMAL FLOW LEVELS AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK, FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   90  73  90  72  90 /  20  30  30  30  40
PANAMA CITY   87  74  85  74  84 /  40  20  40  30  50
DOTHAN        89  70  89  70  86 /  30  20  50  30  50
ALBANY        90  70  89  69  89 /  20  20  50  30  40
VALDOSTA      89  69  91  69  89 /  20  20  40  20  30
CROSS CITY    91  69  92  70  91 /  30  30  30  30  30
APALACHICOLA  86  76  86  76  86 /  30  20  30  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL FRANKLIN-
     SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL



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