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Area Forecast Discussion

784
FXUS62 KTAE 301428
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1028 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low moving steadily
northeast across SE Alabama this morning. A dry slot to the east
of the low is pushing well inland into the Big Bend and SW
Georgia. This drying should help to limit thunderstorm activity
for the western half of the area this afternoon, with the best
chances confined to the eastern third, where deep layer moisture
will remain most plentiful. Current forecast is on track with
temperatures still expected to climb into the lower 90s as skies
clear.

&&

.Prev Discussion [657 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...

IFR ceilings prevail across the region with some MVFR mixed in.
Additionally LIFR visibilities are mainly confined to DHN and ECP.
Expect restrictions to clear within the next couple of hours.
Scattered showers are expected this morning at ABY and VLD, with
thunderstorms more likely at VLD later this afternoon.


.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  50  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS



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