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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 240017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
817 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016


Afternoon convection is diminishing this evening with no big changes
to the previous forecast.



[Through 00z Monday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Storm
coverage on Sunday is expected to be highest near ECP and DHN
(40-50% chance), so a VCTS was included for those locations in
the afternoon.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Shallow convection continues to develop and remain confined to the
seabreeze thus far this afternoon. Given the drier airmass in place
today, expect coverage to remain isolated overall with the best
chances across western portions of the Florida Panhandle. A few
isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible through late
afternoon further inland across eastern portions of the Big Bend and
eastern portions of our Georgia counties. Like the convection so far
today, this activity will remain isolated in coverage and generally
weak. Expect convection to wane after sunset, with lingering showers
and storms offshore. Overnight lows will dip into the mid 70s across
the region tonight.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

On Sunday, a weak Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) will
gradually move westward from the NE Florida coast. While models
disagree slightly as to the speed and direction that this
disturbance will take, it will enhance our local rainfall chances.
Instability will be higher on Sunday (CAPE near 1600 J/kg), while
PWATS are forecast to remain around 1.6 inches. By Monday, this
feature will be off to the west, and our area will see a return to
more typical seabreeze driven afternoon showers and thunderstorms,
confined mainly along and south of Interstate 10. With the increased
cloud cover and rain, high temperatures will remain in the lower
90s. Low temperatures will be in the mid 70s, warmer near the coast.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Surface and upper level ridging begins to build back over the
Southeast on Wednesday. With the ridging in place, rain chances will
trend to below normal through the end of the period, generally at or
below 30 percent. Any showers and storms that develop will be
primarily seabreeze driven, with light southerly steering flow in
place. The ridging and reduced rain chances will result in
increasing temperatures for the latter part of the period,
approaching the mid to upper 90s. Low temperatures generally in the
mid 70s, warmer near the coast.


Light winds and low seas are expected for the next several days.
An approaching upper level disturbance will increase thunderstorm
chances across the area on Sunday. A more typical summertime pattern
will return by Tuesday with thunderstorms becoming more isolated.


With RH values above critical thresholds, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected for the next several days.


Another day of lower thunderstorm coverage suggests little or
no flood concerns today. On Sunday, an approaching upper level
disturbance should help increase thunderstorm coverage. With
relatively light steering flow, some localized flooding is
possible with these storms, especially across the Florida
Panhandle. However, there are no widespread flood concerns at
this time.



Tallahassee   75  93  74  94  75 /  10  40  20  30  20
Panama City   78  88  78  88  78 /  10  50  20  30  20
Dothan        74  93  73  93  73 /  20  50  10  30  20
Albany        74  95  74  94  74 /  10  30  20  30  10
Valdosta      73  94  72  94  74 /  20  40  20  30  20
Cross City    74  93  73  93  74 /  20  40  20  30  20
Apalachicola  78  89  77  89  77 /  10  40  20  30  20






NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Moore/Bennett
LONG TERM...Moore/Bennett

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