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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 251329

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
929 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Another hot day with highs in the upper 90s and heat indices
expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along a weak surface front/trough that
extends east to west across central Georgia. The mean 1000-700mb
flow is light from the northwest so a few storms may reach our
forecast area by late afternoon or early evening. The best chance
for seeing any convection (30%) will be our northeast Georgia
zones and an isolated strong to briefly severe storm is possible.
Additionally, an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out generally along and south of I-10 as the sea breeze develops
and struggles to advance inland against the opposing flow. No
changes were made to the current forecast package.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Increased moisture will result in a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday than during the
previous several days, with PWAT values rising well above 1.5"
across our area. As usual during the summer, precipitation chances
will be maximized during peak heating hours of the afternoon and
early evening. With a fairly late start to convective initiation
expected on Sunday, however, high temperatures could still reach
the mid-upper 90s inland, along with heat indices topping out in
the 100-105 range. The heat will persist through Monday, although
it should be a couple degrees cooler with highs in the low-mid
90s. Lows during this period will generally be in the mid-70s
inland and in the upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue each
day through this period as a typical humid summertime airmass
settles over our area, and the diurnal sea breeze pattern enhances
convection over land each afternoon/early evening. Upper level
forcing may also play a role in aiding thunderstorm development
during the second half of this period, as a trough is projected to
dip into the southeastern CONUS from Thursday through Saturday.
While widespread severe storms are not expected throughout this
period, the best chance at seeing a couple strong/severe storms
would be during this time, when shear would be slightly enhanced
over our area. Highs in the lower 90s will prevail over our inland
locations with upper 80s near the coast each day. Lows will be in
the low-mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the coast.

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
in parts of south Georgia and the Florida Peninsula. For our TAF
sites, the most likely to be affected site is ABY, although there is
a small chance (around 20%) near DHN and VLD as well. Outside of
thunderstorms, conditions are expected to remain VFR through the
period with light winds generally from the southwest that will calm
overnight. Some of the guidance suggests there may be some fog
tomorrow morning in north FL, but confidence was too low to include
in the TAF package at this time.


Light winds generally between 5-10 knots will lead to seas of 1-2
feet or less for the next several days.


Relative humidity and rain chances will increase this weekend as we
return to a more normal summertime pattern. No red flag conditions
are expected for the next week.


River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.



Tallahassee   98  74  97  74  93 /  10  10  40  40  30
Panama City   88  77  88  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30
Dothan        97  74  96  74  94 /  10  10  40  30  30
Albany        98  75  97  74  95 /  20  20  50  30  30
Valdosta      98  74  95  73  92 /  20  10  60  40  30
Cross City    95  74  94  73  91 /  10  10  50  30  50
Apalachicola  90  76  89  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30







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