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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KTAE 282006

306 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Our forecast area will continue to be influenced by a deep layer
ridge over the Southeast. This correlates well with fair weather
and warm temperatures, which were already well into the 70s this
early afternoon. A few dissipating showers may reach eastern
portions of Lafayette and Dixie Counties this afternoon, but the
probability of 0.01 inches of rain is 20% or less. Lows tonight
will be in the lower to mid 50s under mostly clear skies.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Low amplitude upper ridge will remain in control along the
northeastern Gulf Coast through early Tuesday. This will keep the
main band of westerlies (along with the surface front) confined
north of the forecast area. Along with dry conditions,
temperatures will remain above normal, with highs reaching the mid
to upper 70s Sunday and Monday afternoons.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Guidance is in good agreement that a cold front will push across
the forecast area on Wednesday. Expect to see scattered showers
with the front, but heavy rain and significant thunderstorms are
not expected attm. Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday,
with the GFS developing a wave along the front over the eastern
Gulf as a shortwave digs into the base of the broad trough. This
generates a large area of rain across the local area for Thursday
into Friday. The ECMWF is much less agressive with this evolution,
keeping the forecast dry behind the initial front. Until model
agreement improves, will keep low end PoPs in place for Thursday
and Friday. Regardless, temperatures will be cooler post-front,
with highs generally in the 60s by Thursday and Friday.


[Through 18Z Sunday] Unlimited cigs/unrestricted Vis will
continue through tonight. While some of the NWP guidance shows
some potential for fog around dawn, the consensus of the guidance
is for VFR conditions through Sunday morning. It appears that the
highest probability of fog and/or low cigs will be southeast of
KTLH. Surface winds will be light and rather variable.


Generally light east to northeast winds will continue through
early in the week. A cold front will cross the waters on Wednesday
with winds becoming northerly and increasing.


.Fire Weather...
No concerns.


With no significant rain anticipated through early next week,
there are no flood concerns at this time.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  79  55  79  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  73  58  75  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        54  76  55  76  58 /   0   0  10   0   0
Albany        52  76  54  77  57 /   0   0  10  10   0
Valdosta      54  78  54  79  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  79  56  80  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  60  73  58  75  61 /   0   0   0   0   0


FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CST this evening FOR South




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