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Area Forecast Discussion

606
FXUS62 KTAE 300751
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Dry air behind a rare July front will preclude any shower or
thunderstorm development today. Expect afternoon highs near normal
today, around 90 degrees away from the coast. A flat but scattered
CU field will be possible along an east of a line from Albany to
Tallahassee.

&&

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

Late Wednesday, longwave troughing over the Eastern CONUS will begin
to transition to zonal flow but will not last long as by late
Thursday, a developing shortwave begins to carve out another
longwave trough. For our area, this means at least one more dry day
on Thursday before moisture begins to increase with SW flow. The
global models, and our MOS guidance, advertise the best chances of
rain on Friday for northern portions of the forecast area in our SE
Alabama and SW Georgia. Went with a 20%-40% South to North PoP
gradient with the primary forcing expected to be along mesoscale
boundaries. The diurnal temperature swing will be large on Thursday
with dry air in place. Most locations will experience lows in the
mid to upper 60s away from the coast in the morning, and high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s in the late afternoon. Increasing
cloudiness NW of a line from Albany to Dothan will keep max temps
lower Friday, while other locations SW of this line will feel
temperatures similar to Thursday.

&&

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Thursday]...

VFR conditions under light winds and mostly clear skies will prevail
through the TAF.


&&

.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions will yield low seas through Friday. As
we move from Friday into the weekend, increasing southwesterly flow
could raise seas an additional foot over current levels, but these
will still be well away from any headline conditions.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although we`ll be unseasonably dry, relative humidities should
remain just above critical thresholds the next couple of days.
Moisture levels will gradually return to near normal by the end of
the week.


&&

.Hydrology...

All area rivers area currently below action stage, and over the next
few days, any additional rainfall will not cause any concern at this
time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  66  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  10  30
Panama City   90  71  90  75  88 /   0  10   0  10  30
Dothan        89  64  93  70  89 /   0  10   0  10  40
Albany        91  66  93  71  90 /   0  10   0  20  40
Valdosta      96  67  96  70  93 /   0   0  10  10  30
Cross City    94  67  93  69  92 /   0   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  89  70  90  73  88 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GOULD/DOBBS
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GOULD/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GOULD/DOBBS





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