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Area Forecast Discussion

358
FXUS62 KTAE 280717
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
317 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A rather sloppy synoptic pattern prevails over the Southeast this
morning. First, a broad area of upper-level low pressure over the
western Atlantic, with several +PV anomalies embedded from the FL/GA
coast to the Bahamas. Over the Central Plains, a strong shortwave is
visible on satellite imagery this morning, with a weaker wave
present over coastal LA/MS. In-between, across most of the Southeast
lies a narrow channel of high pressure. At the surface, ridging
prevails with the notable exception of Tropical Depression Two in
the western Atlantic.

The shortwave over the LA/MS coast will likely result in very
isolated light showers from time-to-time, remaining mostly west of
our Alabama and Florida counties. However, a few showers may drift
into our counties west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers
through the first half of the day. Later in the day, expect a few
seabreeze showers and possibly an isolated storm to develop over the
FL panhandle and mainly west of the aforementioned rivers. Elsewhere
across north Florida a stray shower may be possible late in the
afternoon along the seabreeze, but plenty of dry air aloft should
severely limit coverage and intensity.

Afternoon highs are expected to be near seasonal normals, around 90
degrees inland, and low 80s along the coast.



.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

A broad upper level ridge will stay in place over the east coast
through Sunday before lifting north on Monday. Tropical Depression
Two, currently 350 miles southeast of Charleston, will slowly
approach the South Carolina coast through the weekend. Impacts will
stay well to the northeast of the local area. There will be a slight
chance (20-30%) of sea breeze thunderstorms each afternoon. Highs
will be in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s.



.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Upper level flow will be zonal to start the long term period. By
Wednesday the trough over the central US will begin to deepen. Moisture
will increase on Thursday resulting in a 30% chance of thunderstorms
Thursday and Friday. Highs will be in the low 90s with lows near
70.


&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF, with showers
possible late in the afternoon near TLH, VLD, and possibly a
thunderstorm near ECP.

&&

.MARINE...

Southeasterly winds around 10 knots will become westerly on
Monday. Seas will be 3 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

With rivers below action stage and no significant rain for the
next few days, there are no hydrology concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  68  92  69  93 /  20  10  10   0  20
Panama City   82  71  85  73  87 /  30   0  10  10  20
Dothan        88  67  91  69  92 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        89  67  91  69  92 /   0   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      88  66  91  67  92 /   0  10  10   0  20
Cross City    91  67  90  67  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
Apalachicola  82  71  86  72  87 /  30   0  10   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston



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