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Area Forecast Discussion

821
FXUS62 KTAE 031401
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1001 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE
MADE. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING IS QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A PWAT VALUE DOWN TO 1.37 INCHES. THIS WILL
ACT TO REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO RECENTLY.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE BASE OF A BROAD EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE WESTERN NOSE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
REGION. SATELLITE DERIVED PWATS DEPICT A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
GULF COAST. THIS WAS INITIALIZED WELL BY THE MODELS THIS MORNING,
AND COUPLED WITH OUR DRIEST SEABREEZE REGIME, SHOULD YIELD A MUCH
QUIETER AFTERNOON WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION. WE`LL PLACE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BY THE
EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [644 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

A BROAD, WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AT 500 MB WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST, AS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH (CURRENTLY
OVER IOWA) ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS STRONGER THAN WHAT WAS FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO, WHICH HELPS
ACCOUNT FOR OUR WETTER JULY 4TH FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL REMAIN WHERE IT`S BEEN ALL WEEK, ACROSS CENTRAL
FL. INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW,
COUPLED WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT, WILL LEAD TO ABOVE- CLIMO
POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUR POP FORECAST IS GENERALLY AROUND
50 PERCENT, WHICH IS ACTUALLY LOWER THAN THE NORMALLY RELIABLE
ECAM GUIDANCE, BUT HIGHER THAN MOS CONSENSUS. THIS WETTER SCENARIO
MAY BE DISAPPOINTING FOR PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ON SATURDAY,
BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END BY FIREWORKS TIME. WE DON`T EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY. THE LARGE
SCALE KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS, BUT THEY ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S SATURDAY, AND AROUND 90
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A WEAK CUTOFF LOW AT 500 MB WILL MEANDER OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THEN GRADUALLY FILL MID TO LATE WEEK AS A RATHER NARROW RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO TEXAS. THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FL. AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SLOWLY DECREASES, THE POPS WILL GO FROM NEAR AVERAGE (40-50
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS) AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK, TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE (30 PERCENT) LATER NEXT WEEK.
CONVERSELY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE (NEAR 90), AND END UP IN THE MID 90S.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF. MENTIONED
VCTS AT DHN AND ABY WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST, BUT RELATIVELY
HIGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES A PREVAILING TSRA. A MIXTURE OF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DHN AND ABY LATE
TONIGHT.


.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL FL. AS THIS RIDGE
SHIFTS NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN, AND WE
EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH SOME MARGINALLY HIGH DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.


.HYDROLOGY...

RIVER STAGES REMAINED BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION LEVELS, AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   95  74  93  74  90 /  20   0  50  20  40
PANAMA CITY   89  79  88  77  86 /  10  10  40  20  40
DOTHAN        94  74  91  73  88 /  30  10  50  30  40
ALBANY        94  73  90  73  88 /  30  10  50  30  40
VALDOSTA      95  73  95  73  91 /  20  10  50  20  40
CROSS CITY    93  75  92  75  90 /  20  10  40  30  40
APALACHICOLA  90  77  89  76  87 /  10   0  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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