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Area Forecast Discussion

302
FXUS62 KTAE 021447
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1047 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Not much has changed from yesterday`s weather pattern. Weak high
pressure aloft is still in place across the region with a rather
moist environment. Expect the sea breeze fronts to be the primary
driver of afternoon/evening convection. There is some disagreement
with our last couple of WRF runs that vary from sparse convective
activity to widespread storms by late afternoon. Will stay close
to climatology for this light south to southeasterly flow regime
which tends to favor 40 to 50 percent rain chances across the
Florida Big Bend and into portions of Southwestern Georgia. Expect
a warm afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s across the area.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Very little change in thinking from yesterday`s extended fcst, as
weak Upper Level ridging will be the predominant synoptic level
forcer in this fairly stagnant pattern across the SE U.S. It will be
in a weakening and retrograding phase on Friday through the upcoming
weekend, as a trof of low pressure attempts to push southeastward
from the MS Valley region, but this trof will quickly dissipate as
well, with new ridging forming in its place for Monday and Tuesday
of next week. Despite these slight variations in ridging and
trofing, the Sfc pressure pattern should remain weak and plenty of
deep layer moisture will continue to advect into the CWA from the
Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, keeping the sea breeze circulation
quite convectively active. Both PoPs and temps should average at or
above climo levels through the period, with daytime Pops mainly in
the 30-50% range, and highs and lows from the lower to middle 90s
and lower to middle 70s respectively.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon may approach the terminals
after 18z with VCTS groups used into the early evening hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [243 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Upper level high pressure will continue to weaken as a TUTT moves
west from the Bahamas across South FL on Wednesday. This feature
will then weaken on Thursday. Easterly low to mid level flow will
continue to favor evening convection across our eastern zones until
around midnight and the potential for isolated strong storms will
also linger. More uniform convective coverage is expected on
Wednesday with PoPs generally 30-40, or near climo. Similar
conditions are forecast for Thursday. Temps will remain a couple
of degrees above normal overnight with afternoon highs some 2-4
degrees above climo.


.Marine...
A ridge of high pressure will remain north of the waters keeping
winds light and out of the east or southeast most of this week. Of
course, the sea breeze will veer the winds to onshore each afternoon
and evening near the coast.


.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
this week, preventing us from reaching red flag criteria.


.Hydrology...
Rivers in Georgia/Alabama remain very low, with a few points
potentially reaching record low levels in the next couple of weeks
if the unusually dry conditions continue. Rivers are not quite as
low in Florida, although with any heavy rainfall remaining highly
localized this week, river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  73  94  73  94 /  50  40  40  20  30
Panama City   91  77  92  76  91 /  30  30  30  20  30
Dothan        95  73  95  73  95 /  30  30  40  20  30
Albany        95  73  95  73  94 /  30  30  40  20  30
Valdosta      94  72  94  71  93 /  40  40  40  20  30
Cross City    94  72  93  71  93 /  40  40  40  20  30
Apalachicola  90  76  91  75  90 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH




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