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Surrounding: BMX MRX FFC CAE TAE Current Version Previous Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Area Forecast Discussion499 FXUS62 KTAE 030146 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 946 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2013 .NEAR TERM [Rest of Tonight]... Showers that were located in the very west of the area earlier in the afternoon have dissipated leaving only an isolated shower over the coastal waters. Besides slightly lowering PoPs, the overall forecast remains unchanged with lows tonight ranging from the mid 60s towards the SW panhandle to low 60s in the NE GA counties. && .SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]... High pressure will remain across the Carolinas through Thursday with our region in between a drier airmass across Southern Georgia and a more moist airmass across the Florida Panhandle. Showers are anticipated over the coastal waters on Thursday and possibly onshore into the Florida Panhandle, but elsewhere it should be too dry for any precipitation. By Friday, the pattern will begin to transition as more moisture builds in from the south with the approaching tropical system. Whether this ends up being an organized system or not is still uncertain, but do expect the increasing moisture to lead to gradually increasing rain chances, especially by Friday evening across the Florida Panhandle and adjacent marine area. Temperatures throughout the short term period will be near normal values, with the exception being across South Central Georgia where some cooler values in the lower 60s are possible. && .LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]... It seems like this has been one of the more challenging and difficult long term periods for some time. The models still continue to have issue resolving the tropical contribution to the weather pattern across the Southeast as well as the upper trough moving into the plains on Friday evening and Saturday. Timing differences abound as well as do intensity issues with the tropical system. The GFS has obviously been on the more intense side with this system for several runs, while the Euro has had difficulty maintaining even a closed low for very long. While the GFS solution may be too strong, the Euro solution also seems a bit suspicious as it keeps the system much weaker, with the weak surface and upper level features ultimately becoming separated long before any interaction with the approaching upper trough. Ultimately, a solution between the GFS and Euro, at least with respect to development may be the eventual result. The environment isn`t prohibitive and NHC has assigned a 70 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours. The track of the resulting system will likely be dependent on how quickly the system moves northward. A slower progression of this system would likely lead to more of an eastward track in the longer term as the approaching upper trough would have more time to catch up with the tropical disturbance and force it more to the northeast. At the start of the long range period, whatever form the tropical system is in, its moisture will be streaming northward into the region with rain chances increasing through Saturday afternoon. Unsettled conditions will prevail through the weekend as tropical moisture lingers over the area. Clearing will likely be delayed into the first of the upcoming week as the southern end of the approaching upper trough will be slow to move out of the region. && .AVIATION [Through 00 UTC Friday]... VFR conditions through the period with mainly mid and high level cloudiness. Winds will be easterly under 10 knots. && .MARINE... Easterly flow to cautionary levels offshore is expected tonight. After a decrease in winds on Thursday, expect winds to be on the increase out of the southeast as a tropical disturbance moves into the Central Gulf of Mexico. Winds will likely reach advisory criteria by Friday afternoon across the western waters and remain high into the weekend. High winds and seas do not appear to subside across the marine area until Sunday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag conditions are unlikely through at least this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... River flows remain above base levels for early October with area soils still quite moist from the summer rains. The incoming system this weekend will need to be closely monitored. A more organized tropical system could easily produce enough rainfall to result in a fair amount of areal and riverine flooding into next week. However, if the storm system is more disorganized as indicated in some of the latest guidance, then flooding would be less of a threat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 65 88 69 87 67 / 0 10 10 20 30 Panama City 72 86 73 84 73 / 10 20 20 50 40 Dothan 64 88 67 88 67 / 0 10 10 10 20 Albany 61 88 63 88 64 / 0 0 10 10 20 Valdosta 61 87 64 87 65 / 0 10 10 10 20 Cross City 64 88 67 88 66 / 0 10 10 20 20 Apalachicola 73 84 74 83 73 / 10 20 20 50 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Heller/Gould SHORT TERM...Godsey LONG TERM...Godsey AVIATION...Barry MARINE...Gould/Godsey FIRE WEATHER...Barry HYDROLOGY...Godsey |