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Area Forecast Discussion

487
FXUS62 KTAE 261910
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
310 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The upper level low centered in the northeast Gulf continues to
provide weak synoptic-scale ascent across the Tri-State region this
afternoon. The finer details as to where the convection is
initiating seem to be along mesoscale boundaries from yesterday`s
convection, the seabreeze, and convergent easterly flow in the
Suwannee Basin. As storms continue through the afternoon, new storms
will initiate along outflow from previous storms, resulting in a
rather high coverage of rain across the region. Showers and
thunderstorms should come to an end within a couple hours after
sunset.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

As a stacked low pressure system drops southward from the Great
Lakes into the Ohio Valley, a cold front will approach from the
northwest and push through the region by Wednesday night. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. PoPs will be
around 30% on Tuesday, then 10% for our far northwest zones and
20-40% elsewhere on Wednesday. Noticeably cooler and drier air
will filter in behind the front. Dew points will dip into the 50s
mainly north and west of Tallahassee with minimum temperatures in the
lower to mid 60s for all but the SE Big Bend by daybreak Thursday.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The cold front will press further to the south and east through
the remainder of the week with the cooler and drier airmass
overspreading the entire region as surface high pressure builds
in from the north. The coolest temperatures will be from Thursday
night through Friday night with lows in the 50s for all but the
coastal areas and highs on Friday in the lower to mid 80s. A
slow moderating trend in temperatures along with increasing low
level moisture and slight rain chances is expected over the
weekend and into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...

VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms for the remainder of the
afternoon and this evening. Overnight, another round of IFR vis/cig
is expected to impact ABY and VLD. Restrictions will be slow to
scatter through the morning, and may end up spreading as far west as
TLH.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas through Wednesday will become more moderate
as a cold front moves through the local waters. Offshore flow can
be expected for the latter half of the week with seas increasing
in response to the slightly higher winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns are anticipated through Tuesday.  On
Wednesday afternoon and early evening, high dispersion values are
possible, mainly across SW Georgia and SE Alabama. No widespread
fire weather issues are anticipated with light winds and RH values
above critical thresholds on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rain is expected for the next few days, but significant rainfall
amounts and not expected and thus flooding is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  90  71  88  62 /  20  30  20  30  10
Panama City   74  87  72  85  67 /  30  30  30  30  10
Dothan        69  89  67  87  61 /  30  30  30  20  10
Albany        69  89  68  88  61 /  20  30  30  20  10
Valdosta      69  89  70  88  64 /  30  30  20  20  20
Cross City    70  89  70  87  69 /  30  30  20  30  30
Apalachicola  74  87  75  86  70 /  20  20  30  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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