National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

499
FXUS62 KTAE 030146
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
946 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2013

.NEAR TERM [Rest of Tonight]...
Showers that were located in the very west of the area earlier in
the afternoon have dissipated leaving only an isolated shower over
the coastal waters.  Besides slightly lowering PoPs, the overall
forecast remains unchanged with lows tonight ranging from the mid
60s towards the SW panhandle to low 60s in the NE GA counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
High pressure will remain across the Carolinas through Thursday
with our region in between a drier airmass across Southern Georgia
and a more moist airmass across the Florida Panhandle. Showers are
anticipated over the coastal waters on Thursday and possibly
onshore into the Florida Panhandle, but elsewhere it should be too
dry for any precipitation.

By Friday, the pattern will begin to transition as more moisture
builds in from the south with the approaching tropical system.
Whether this ends up being an organized system or not is still
uncertain, but do expect the increasing moisture to lead to
gradually increasing rain chances, especially by Friday evening
across the Florida Panhandle and adjacent marine area.

Temperatures throughout the short term period will be near normal
values, with the exception being across South Central Georgia
where some cooler values in the lower 60s are possible.

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...
It seems like this has been one of the more challenging and
difficult long term periods for some time. The models still
continue to have issue resolving the tropical contribution to the
weather pattern across the Southeast as well as the upper trough
moving into the plains on Friday evening and Saturday. Timing
differences abound as well as do intensity issues with the
tropical system. The GFS has obviously been on the more intense
side with this system for several runs, while the Euro has had
difficulty maintaining even a closed low for very long. While the
GFS solution may be too strong, the Euro solution also seems a bit
suspicious as it keeps the system much weaker, with the weak
surface and upper level features ultimately becoming separated
long before any interaction with the approaching upper trough.
Ultimately, a solution between the GFS and Euro, at least with
respect to development may be the eventual result. The environment
isn`t prohibitive and NHC has assigned a 70 percent chance of
development in the next 48 hours. The track of the resulting
system will likely be dependent on how quickly the system moves
northward. A slower progression of this system would likely lead
to more of an eastward track in the longer term as the approaching
upper trough would have more time to catch up with the tropical
disturbance and force it more to the northeast.

At the start of the long range period, whatever form the tropical
system is in, its moisture will be streaming northward into the
region with rain chances increasing through Saturday afternoon.
Unsettled conditions will prevail through the weekend as tropical
moisture lingers over the area. Clearing will likely be delayed
into the first of the upcoming week as the southern end of the
approaching upper trough will be slow to move out of the region.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 00 UTC Friday]...
VFR conditions through the period with mainly mid and high level
cloudiness. Winds will be easterly under 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly flow to cautionary levels offshore is expected tonight.
After a decrease in winds on Thursday, expect winds to be on the
increase out of the southeast as a tropical disturbance moves into
the Central Gulf of Mexico. Winds will likely reach advisory
criteria by Friday afternoon across the western waters and remain
high into the weekend. High winds and seas do not appear to
subside across the marine area until Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely through at least this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River flows remain above base levels for early October with area
soils still quite moist from the summer rains. The incoming system
this weekend will need to be closely monitored. A more organized
tropical system could easily produce enough rainfall to result in
a fair amount of areal and riverine flooding into next week.
However, if the storm system is more disorganized as indicated in
some of the latest guidance, then flooding would be less of a
threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  88  69  87  67 /  0  10  10  20  30
Panama City   72  86  73  84  73 / 10  20  20  50  40
Dothan        64  88  67  88  67 /  0  10  10  10  20
Albany        61  88  63  88  64 /  0   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      61  87  64  87  65 /  0  10  10  10  20
Cross City    64  88  67  88  66 /  0  10  10  20  20
Apalachicola  73  84  74  83  73 / 10  20  20  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Heller/Gould
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Gould/Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey