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Area Forecast Discussion

558
FXUS62 KTAE 290743
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

...Dangerous Heat Expected Again This Afternoon...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Today will likely be an active day for convection across the
area. The overnight analysis shows upper ridging with light
northerly flow aloft over the local area. The remnants of an MCS
is moving southward through northern Alabama. As we head into this
afternoon, higher PWAT values will actually be advecting into the
area from the north, and the remains of the MCS may help increase
surface convergence across the area and spawn a new MCS. The
environment is expected to be favorable for wet microbursts with
SBCAPE values around 3000 j/kg and decent delta thetae values
pushing the WMSI (Wet Microburst Severity Index) to near 80 this
afternoon. The latest run of the ECAM (Ensemble of Convection
Allowing Models) focuses the highest PoPs in the 21z-00z time
frame with PoPs starting to ramp up quickly after 18z. The
official forecast follows this general idea with at least likely
PoPs across most of the area, which is above the gridded MOS
guidance. Given the expected favorable environment and high PWAT
values, some enhanced wording for gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rain was used for the point and click forecast. A few
severe storms are possible this afternoon.

The other issue for today will be high heat index values. Although
convection is expected to be plentiful, the later start after 18z is
still expected to allow temperatures to reach the mid to upper 90s
across most of the area this afternoon. Given the deeper moisture
expected today, dewpoints aren`t expected to mix out as much either,
and this combination will lead to heat index values slightly higher
than yesterday. This tips the scale in favor of a heat advisory
across most of the area this afternoon with the exception of the
far east for heat index values in the 107-112 degree range.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
With the later start to afternoon convection expected today,
activity will likely continue into the evening before mostly
fading away around midnight. For Thursday, modest (15 to 20
knots) northwest flow will continue across the forecast area,
between high pressure to the northwest and an upper trough to the
southeast. With deep layer moisture remaining plentiful, expect
another active day of convection, with a few severe storms
possible given the mid-level flow. Temperatures should be several
degrees cooler than Wednesday, with the mid-level ridge retreating
to the northwest.

Further weakening of the upper ridge is expected by Friday, with a
weak surface trough remaining in place along the northern Gulf
Coast. This surface trough, coupled with precipitable water
values above 2 inches and the weaker upper ridging will generate
numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area for Friday.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
An upper trough axis will gradually extend its reach further south
towards the Gulf Coast through the weekend into early next week,
as the east- west oriented ridge axis retreats to the west. At the
surface, a weak trough is forecast to remain roughly stationary
along the Gulf Coast. This will keep rain chances elevated, with
high temperatures retreating into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday] Scattered to numerous TSRA are expected
this afternoon across the area, some of which will likely contain
gusty winds. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.Marine...
A weak trough of low pressure will remain in place along the
northern Gulf Coast into the weekend. This will keep light to
moderate west to southwest winds in place over the coastal
waters.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will not occur for the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rain chances increase today through the rest of the week. Five
day rain totals as high as 3 to 4 inches will be possible along
the coast, especially in the southeastern Big Bend. Elsewhere, 1
to 2 inches is likely. Area rivers are still below action stage.
With the heaviest rainfall expected near the coast, river flooding
is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   99  77  92  76  90 /  70  40  50  30  60
Panama City   90  80  88  79  87 /  70  40  50  30  50
Dothan        97  75  92  76  92 /  60  50  50  30  50
Albany        97  76  93  76  92 /  60  50  50  30  50
Valdosta      94  76  92  75  91 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    94  77  89  76  89 /  70  40  50  30  60
Apalachicola  95  79  88  79  88 /  60  40  50  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM EDT /Noon CDT/ this afternoon to 6 PM
     EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
     Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South
     Walton-Washington.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT this evening
     FOR Baker-Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 5 PM CDT this afternoon FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP/MCDERMOTT



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