National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

591
FXUS62 KTAE 032021
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
321 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2013

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... High pressure will build into the
region tonight resulting in near calm winds. With the clear skies
and dry conditions, expect temperatures to drop quickly tonight.
While some of the guidance has trended colder this cycle, it doesn`t
appear as though it will get cold enough to support a hard freeze
warning, though there is a possibility a few spots in the Southeast
Florida Big Bend approaching the mid 20s. However, a light freeze
inland looks like a sure bet.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... After a rather cold
start across the region with a Light Freeze expected overnight,
afternoon temperatures should finally moderate back up into the
middle 60s across most areas on Monday afternoon under plenty of
sunshine. Monday night should be quite a bit milder as well as
surface winds begin to veer around to the south. Low temps are
expected to range from the mid to upper 30s in a small area near the
Suwannee Valley to the upper 40s to lower 50s to the west of the
Apalachicola River. On Tuesday and Tuesday night, the next (and last
for quite some time) Low Pressure system and associated Cold Front
will approach the region from the west and swing rapidly through the
CWA overnight Tuesday night. While scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected with this system, we are only
anticipating a low QPF event (with Storm Total Precip between .05"
and .15"), so this additional rainfall will have almost no impact on
our ongoing River Flooding. Also, it should be noted that High Temps
will finally break back into the lower to middle 70s before any
showers or storms reach the area.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
After the next Low Pressure System and associated Cold Front
Sweep through our CWA on Tuesday Night, a very benign Synoptic
Pattern appears in store for the region throughout the extended
period. Since this initial Cold Front does not appear to be a
significant QPF producer (due to lack of return flow moisture and
its very progressive movement), and with no additional rainfall
expected after this system, conditions will be ideal for our area
rivers, many which are still in Flood Stage, to continue to
subside. As for temperatures, we do expect a shot of cooler and
drier air behind the front from Wed-Fri (though not nearly as cold
as this last air mass), with conditions returning to back towards
or even a bit milder than climatology for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period.

&&

.MARINE... With the Northwesterly winds a bit slower to subside over
the offshore legs, will continue the Cautionary headline into this
evening. Winds and seas will continue to diminish over the Marine
Area during the overnight and morning hours on Monday, as the wind
direction gradually swings around from offshore to onshore by Monday
afternoon. Then, winds and seas will begin to approach Cautionary
levels once again on Monday night and Tuesday, as the next Cold
Front approaches the Coastal Waters from the west. Behind this Cold
Front, a strong Small Craft Advisory is expected Tuesday night into
Wednesday night with gusty Northwesterly Winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected tomorrow, but ERCs and
wind speeds will be too low for red flag warnings. A chance of rain
is back in the forecast for Tuesday with drier conditions returning
by Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Slow improvement continues to be noted along many
of the rivers in our area, although many of the lower portions of
the rivers are still in flood stage. Flows are on the decrease on
the Chipola, Ochlockonee, Choctawhatchee, and Flint Rivers.

The Withlacoochee at Pinetta is in the process of cresting, though
it will likely remain at or near its crest height of 84.3 feet for
the next 18 to 24 hours before beginning a slow decrease. There
still is a lot of water to drain down the Withlacoochee toward the
Suwannee River, so flooding along the eastern portion of Madison
County, particularly south of the Pinetta gage, will be slow to
subside.

The primary focus for river flooding will shift to the Suwannee
River by Tuesday. Unusually high inflows from the Withlacoochee and
Alapaha Rivers will help drive the Suwannee River at Ellaville to
flood stage by Tuesday. Interestingly, the Alapaha River at
Statenville has not crested yet and is only now beginning to show a
slower rate of rise. Because we continue to see Top 4 or better
flows on the Alapaha and Withlacoochee Rivers, we feel increasingly
confident that moderate flood stages will be reached along the
Suwannee River at Ellaville and likely further downriver to Dowling
Park by the weekend.

As the flood wave continues down river, we expect at least minor
flooding from Luraville through Branford, though there is potential
of reaching moderate flood stage at Branford. However, this has less
confidence than upriver at Dowling Park. Further down the Suwannee
River, much depends on how backwater flow up the Santa Fe River
influences the Suwannee River crestwave. Moreover, attenuation of
the flow downstream is possible given the drier soil conditions in
place across Southern Lafayette and Dixie Counties. Thus, it is
still a little too early to make a firm prediction on whether
flood stages will be met on the lower Suwannee River (Rock Bluff and
beyond).

---Points still to crest or cresting now---

Withlacoochee at Pinetta - Moderate flood stage
Aucilla River at Lamont - Minor flood stage

---Points that have crested but are still in flood stage---

Choctawhatchee River at Caryville - Minor flood stage
Choctawhatchee River at Bruce - Major flood stage
Chipola River at Altha - Moderate flood stage
Flint River at Bainbridge - Minor flood stage
Ochlockonee River near Concord - Minor flood stage
Ochlockonee River near Havana - Moderate flood stage
Apalachicola River at Blountstown - Minor flood stage
Withlacoochee River above Valdosta - Minor flood stage.

---Flood Outlook for the Suwannee River---

Forecast confidence is now very high for at least minor flood stages
being met at Ellaville and Dowling Park. There is increasing
confidence that these sites will eventually reach low end moderate
flood stage by the weekend.

Further downriver, there is more uncertainly but still a good chance
of reaching minor flood stage at Branford.

Updated predicted crest ranges and crest times as of 230 pm Sunday

At Ellaville - 60 to 62.5 feet (March 9th)

At Dowling Park - 51.5 to 53.5 feet (March 10th)

At Luraville - 44.5 to 47.5 feet (March 11th)

At Branford - 31.5 to 34 feet (March 12th)

For specific crest levels and initial timing of flood stage and
crests, please consult our AHPS page by clicking on Rivers and
Lakes on our website. This can be found at the following web
address.

water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   28  65  42  74  45 /  0   0   0  20  30
Panama City   37  62  53  72  47 /  0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        30  64  48  71  40 /  0   0  10  30  30
Albany        28  64  43  72  41 /  0   0   0  30  40
Valdosta      28  64  39  72  44 /  0   0   0  10  30
Cross City    28  65  37  73  48 /  0   0   0   0  30
Apalachicola  35  59  51  70  48 /  0   0   0  20  30


&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 9 AM
     EST /8 AM CST/ Monday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie
     -Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison
     -Washington.

GA...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Monday for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Gould
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Godsey