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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KOHX 222309

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
609 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016




It`s been a very hot and steamy afternoon across Middle Tennessee
with exception of some lucky isolated locations mainly along the
Tennessee River that are getting some rain. Stewart County seems
to be the big winner today by benefiting from an early afternoon
thunderstorm which has kept temperatures in the upper 70s and
lower 80s for much of the afternoon. Otherwise...most of Middle
Tennessee is well into the 90s with heat indices over 100F

These isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through
this evening. A few strong storms will be possible with small hail
and gusty winds, but think most storms will stay below severe
criteria. For tonight, it`ll be another warm and humid evening as
thunderstorms dissipate. We could have some pockets of locally
dense fog tonight especially over areas that experienced rainfall

For the weekend...continued the Heat Advisory through Saturday at
8pm, although it will likely need to be extended through Sunday
evening especially across locations along and west of Interstate
65. But for now...Saturday looks to be the most worrisome day as
far as heat index...with most locations (excluding the plateau)
experiencing "feel like" temperatures between 105F-109F. Since it
is the weekend, we really cannot stress enough to take it easy! I
know it`s getting to be one of the last weekends before school
starts so you may want to squeeze that last summertime outdoor
adventure in, but just remember, that this will likely be one of
the hottest weekends this summer. So play it cool, take plenty of
breaks, drink lots of water, and keep it safe in the shade.

Now the weekend could have a wrench thrown into the forecast as
short range models have been quite abysmal with forecasting convection
development all week...especially today. With that said, it looks
like only isolated thunderstorms can be expected so a few
locations could escape the extreme heat and humidity, but
pinpointing those lucky places is way too difficult at this time.

Monday - Wednesday...the upper ridge finally begins to break down
bringing in more chances for convection across the area. This
will likely be a welcome sight as high temperatures will be 2-5
degrees cooler along with heat indices. But with convection...more
chances for strong to possibly a few severe thunderstorms each
afternoon and evening can be expected.

Thursday - Friday...what is that in the extended long range
models? Is that actually some much needed relief in the heat on
the horizon??? Well, yes. Yes it is. Or at least we`re all hoping
so as the upper ridge shifts well off to the west and somewhat
westerly zonal flow develops. Good news...with this active pattern
setting up, the region can expect much better chances for showers
and thunderstorms Thursday through next weekend as an upper
trough approaches the area. So let`s get through the heat and
humidity of this weekend and look forward to a little relief in
the way of showers and thunderstorms by next week`s end.



BNA/CKV/CSV...Afternoon storms are becoming more isolated as we
start to lose our daytime heating. Meanwhile, a weak ridge of
high pressure is situated across Middle Tennessee this evening,
with light/calm winds overnight and radiation fog likely.
Visibilities should remain MVFR or better, but IFR conditions are
possible at CKV based on METAR`s there early this morning.
Scattered convection is again possible tomorrow, and will handle
this for now with VC remarks after 18Z.


Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-




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