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Area Forecast Discussion

333
FXUS64 KOHX 221140
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
640 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A FEW MVFR CLOUD HAVE ADVECTED ONTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THIS
MORNING WHICH IS GIVING KCSV SOME MVFR CIGS. THESE SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF CYCLE. QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...EVERYONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE FROST. THIS MIGHT NEGATE THE
FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL CARRY SOME IFR FOG FOR NOW AT KCKV AS
TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR FOG INSTEAD OF FROST.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL EXIT THE CONUS TODAY ALLOWING FOR SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ABOUT 5
DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR LOW TEMPS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS SOME MID 30 TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
SHELTERED AREAS EAST OF I-65 AND ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS NEAREST
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MIDDLE TN FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER DRY UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA THEN. THEREAFTER UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE SW STATES WILL STRENGTHEN AND PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR HIGHS SAT AND SUN...AND
EVEN NEARING 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY. COULD BE SIMILAR TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY ALSO...AS BOTH DAYS SHOW AN INCREASED SWRLY FLOW. AT THE
VERY LEAST MON-TUE WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 80 WITH GUSTY SW WINDS
AND WITH THAT GREAT OF WARM AIR-ADVECTION...WENT SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE MEXMOS SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE UNDERPLAYING THE WARMUP.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW TROUGHING
OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL PUSH EAST AND BREAK DOWN OUR HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN EITHER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP. BUT WITH THE
SFC LOW PUSHING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
SQUEAK OUT MUCH MOISTURE. LEFT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY THAT
FAR OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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