National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

315
FXUS64 KOHX 220746
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
246 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SETUP...UPPER TROUGH TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE MID-
LEVELS BASED ON LATEST RUC WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT REMAINING
BACK OVER CENTRAL PLAINS NOSING DOWN INTO ARKANSAS. A 35 TO 40
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WAS CONTINUING TO FEED MOIST PLUME INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. WIND FIELD LOOKS TO BE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SPEED SHEAR IN
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. UPPER LEVEL JET JUST RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH
FROM ABOUT TEXARKANA NORTHWARD INTO IOWA WITH A 65 KNOT MID LEVEL
JET CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ON-GOING CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE AND DOWN THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI...BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AS CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM.

WITH THE CURRENT SETUP LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY DURING THE DAY...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. EVEN THOUGH
THE WIND FIELDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL THE SWEAT INDEX CLIMBS TO 362
AT 18Z AND 413 BY 00Z WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE DURING THE
MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY A SHORT WAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP DOWN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST HALF DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINING ALONG THE PLATEAU
THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING. GFS HAS WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WOULD KEEP MID STATE
BASICALLY WARM AND DRY. THE EURO HAS WARM FRONT DRAPED THROUGH
WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND KEEPS SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE MID STATE JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

HAVE BACKED OFF A TAD FROM MAV MOS ON HIGHS TODAY AND WENT CLOSER
TO THE MET DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. STAYED
CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST.

BOYD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      79  61  78  52 /  60  30  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    76  58  76  49 /  60  20  20  10
CROSSVILLE     76  59  73  51 /  70  50  30  20
COLUMBIA       79  61  80  54 /  60  30  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   78  60  80  55 /  60  30  20  10
WAVERLY        77  59  77  50 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
BOYD
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