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Area Forecast Discussion

060
FXUS64 KOHX 021515
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1015 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST DICKSON AND
CHEATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT. CORE HAS 59 DBZ ABOVE -20
CELSIUS.

LOOK FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
TRANLATE EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WE GO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AND BEGIN ENDING
FROM THE WEST AFTER 18Z. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S LOOK
GOOD AT THIS TIME.

.CLIMATE...

...5TH DRIEST APRIL IN NASHVILLE...AND THE DRIEST SINCE 1992...

NASHVILLE EXPERIENCED ITS DRIEST APRIL SINCE 1992 AND THE 5TH
DRIEST ON RECORD. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR NASHVILLE DATE BACK TO
1870.

FIVE DRIEST APRIL`S ON RECORD:
1986...0.52
1915...0.72
1992...0.77
1987...1.03
2016...1.12

RAINFALL FOR APRIL 2016 TOTALED 1.12 INCHES WHICH IS 2.88 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL.THE GREATEST RAINFALL IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD WAS 0.68
INCH ON MARCH 31ST AND APRIL 1ST. APRIL 2016 WAS THE DRIEST MONTH
IN NASHVILLE SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014.

THE TEMPERATURE AVERAGED ABOVE 3.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN NASHVILLE
FOR APRIL. THE AVERAGE HIGH WAS 74.6 DEGREES AND THE AVERAGE LOW
WAS 50.2 DEGREES. THERE WERE NO TEMPERATURE RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
IN APRIL. APRIL 2016 WAS THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE APRIL WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN NASHVILLE.

THERE WERE 3 DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN APRIL.

THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED WAS 7.0 MILES AN HOUR. THE FASTEST GUST WAS
49 MILES AN HOUR FROM THE SOUTH ON THE 11TH.

THERE WERE 7 DAYS WITH FOG. NO DAYS WITH DENSE FOG.

NO TORNADOES OCCURRED IN TENNESSEE DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL 2016.
THE LAST TIME THERE WERE NO TORNADOES IN THE MONTH OF APRIL IN
TENNESSEE WAS IN 2005.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE FRONT IS JUST PAST BNA THIS HOUR, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY, NOT
MOVING EAST OF THE PLATEAU UNTIL AFTER 00Z. SOME CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AROUND THE MID STATE TODAY, THE HEAVIEST OF WHICH WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, BUT A FEW POST-FRONTAL CELLS
WILL OCCUR, TOO. DESPITE NEAR-SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT, WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING
DENSE. BUT LOOK FOR IFR CIGS AT CSV BY 06Z.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........01/BOYD
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD



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