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Area Forecast Discussion

204
FXUS64 KOHX 040439
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FLIGHT RULES TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF CIGS AND
VIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AND MORE SATURATED. SOME SHOWERS ARE
AROUND MAINLY SOUTH OF ALL THREE TERMINALS. IT IS POSSIBLE BNA AND
CSV SEE A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ACKNOWLEDGEMENT IN THE TAFS. TOMORROW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN BUT LOOK TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE BACK SOME ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WINDS OVER THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE OUT OF THE SW/WSW AOB 5 KTS.

REAGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

UPDATE...ALL MODELS, INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT HRRR, SHOW
CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF OUR BORDER WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND
REMAINING MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FA. MEANWHILE, NEW CONVECTION NOW
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWESTERN TN IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MIDDLE TN BY 09Z, AND THEN WORK
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD, ONTO THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AFTER
09Z. THUS, BELIEVE CURRENT POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT LOOK IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE, WITH THE LEAST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN
OUR NWRN COUNTIES.

DON`T SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST RIGHT
NOW. SO, WILL LET THINGS HUM ALONG AS IS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  81  67  85 /  60  50  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    67  82  66  84 /  50  30  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  75  63  78 /  80  60  60  60
COLUMBIA       67  80  66  84 /  80  50  50  40
LAWRENCEBURG   67  79  66  83 /  80  60  50  50
WAVERLY        67  80  67  84 /  60  40  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.

&&

$$

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