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Area Forecast Discussion

023
FXUS64 KOHX 231941
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
241 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Will let heat advisory over far northwest Middle Tennessee go
through 7 pm cdt this evening. Heat indices in the Nashville area
will top out around 102 to 103 this afternoon.

700 mbar temps this afternoon at +11 degrees so believe for the
most part my cwa is capped off keeping convection currently at a
minimum. Am seeing surface dewpoints pooling along and just south
of frontal boundary that is draped to our north across southern
Missouri...southern Illinois into central Indiana. Believe 4
kilometer NAM has best handle on this feature and storms that will
fire off during the afternoon and through the evening and
overnight. Expect to see storms become more numerous by 22z just
north of the Ohio River and sink southward down through Kentucky
as we go through the evening. Just before midnight the line of
storms should be along Tennessee...Kentucky border and continue to
sink southward through the overnight. There could be a few strong
to possibly severe storms with the best chance of severe storms
over northeast Middle Tennessee and in the upper Cumberland but am
not impressed with severe threat in my cwa as surface based CAPE`s
and MUCAPE`s fall apart as we go further into the evening and
storms sink farther southward and lose daytime heating. Front
gets down across southern Middle Tennessee during the day Friday
so best chance of showers and storms will be down across our
southern areas. Heat indices will be highest across the southwest
half of Middle Tennessee on Friday with 100 to 104 degrees
possible. Basically have shower and thunderstorms in the forecast
each day right on through the weekend and into next week as upper
ridge dominates our area keeping temps above climatology. relief
to the hot weather is on the way and by the middle of next week a
cool front will move down through the area knocking highs down in
the middle 80`s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A cold front will drop southward into southern Kentucky this
evening and produce the the likelihood for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms, especially over northern parts of the Mid-State.
Have introduced a VCTS for area terminals for the evening hours
(generally between 00Z and 04Z). Outside of thunderstorm areas,
expect VFR conditions to prevail through 10Z. Localized MVFR, and
possible IFR conditions will occur underneath thunderstorms, and
MVFR conditions are also expected between 10z and 13z due to BR
and HZ. VFR conditions should return after 13z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  94  74  92  75 /  50  20  20  30  10
Clarksville    75  94  72  92  74 /  50  20  20  30  10
Crossville     70  89  68  87  69 /  40  30  10  20  10
Columbia       74  94  73  93  73 /  40  30  20  30  10
Lawrenceburg   73  95  73  93  73 /  40  30  20  30  10
Waverly        75  93  73  91  75 /  50  30  20  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Dickson-Houston-
Humphreys-Montgomery-Stewart.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........19



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