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Area Forecast Discussion

020
FXUS64 KOHX 291610
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1110 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST WAS MAINLY ON TRACK...BUT DID INCREASE POPS
A LITTLE FOR AREAS EAST OF I 65 AND SOUTH OF I 40...WHERE SHRA
ALREADY DEVELOPING...AND GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE.

SATELLITE SHOWS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAMING UP AHEAD
OF A GULF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOISTURE WAS ALSO
INCREASING FROM THE WEST WITH APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE FROM THE MS
VALLEY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVELS WINDS WERE MAKING CONDITIONS
INCREASINGLY HUMID ACROSS MID TN TODAY...WITH DEW POINTS AROUND
70. POPS WILL BE AROUND 40 PERCENT FOR OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY 30 ELSEWHERE. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED
TODAY...JUST SOME TYPICAL SHOWERS OR STORMS...MOVING NNE AROUND
20 MPH.

OTHERWISE..SKIES WILL BE INCREASINGLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 07Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. IR SATELLITE SHOWING THE
PROMISED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST, SO WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND THE
UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH, LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND A FEW STORMS) DEVELOPING BY
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
SETTING UP IN TODAY`S ENVIRONMENT, BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS, SO COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH DRY WEATHER
LASTING AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID STATE MAY
SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM TS ERIKA REMNANTS, SO WILL INCLUDE LOW
POP`S TOWARD THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE
GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW STARKLY DIFFERENCE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM, WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE NEXT WEEKEND, AND THE ECMWF KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER THE
EAST COAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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