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Area Forecast Discussion

585
FXUS64 KOHX 301614
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1114 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT`S COLD FROPA, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
A DRY NW SURFACE WIND. GIVEN THE DROP IN DEW POINTS, DO NOT EXPECT
RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS A WARM FRONT, BUT ANY
TS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO EXPECT VFR WX
THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE FROM THE WEST, WITH A COOLER, DRIER NW SURFACE WIND
AND CLEAR SKIES RAPIDLY FILLING IN. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE
PUBLIC FORECAST TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG WE HAD EARLIER. THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY`S FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW,
SO NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...
PER SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMATION
OCCURRING...HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION
THIS FORMATION THRU 9 AM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 514 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z.
OTW...LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. THEN...WINDS WILL
DECREASE AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES IN. PARTIAL HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL
RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...INCLUSION OF AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING
PERIOD...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TUE THRU WED NIGHT...TEMPS.

WILL BE MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS
FOR FINAL DECISION VERY CLOSE TO PRESS TIME CONCERNING INTRODUCING
AN EARLY MORNING ZONE GROUPING CONCERNING SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS S
MOVING ACROSS MID STATE...AS SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING THAT
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE E OF MID STATE AFTER 12Z.

OTHERWISE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES HERE AND THERE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON`S FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT THE OVERALL THEME FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY THRU WED NIGHT GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...SKIES WILL CLR...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES..AS PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT ALONG PASSING NEAR SW COUNTIES BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDINESS TO THIS PORTION OF THE MID STATE...AS ABOVE MENTIONED
COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS MOVEMENT NWD APPROACHING THIS PORTION OF THE
MID STATE AS A WARM FRONT ALSO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES ALSO. ENTIRE WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE CLOSER TO THE MID
STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON TUE...WITH A WARM GULF MOISTURE FETCH
DEVELOPING ALONG AND S OF THIS FRONT...AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AT
LEAST THE SRN HALF OF THE MID STATE DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HRS ON
TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING DIURNAL HEATING INSTABILITY AND LIFT MORE
INTO PLAY RESULTING IN ISO SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
SOME STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE ALSO. HIGHS WILL SORE TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE UPPER 60S
PLATEAU TO MID 70S TN RIVER VALLEY REGION. LOOK FOR THIS WARM FRONT
TO BEGIN PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE AS THE NIGHTTIME HRS PROGRESS
TUE NIGHT...WITH LOWS SPANNING THE MID 40S UPPER CUMBERLAND TO
LOWER 50S SW WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE POTENTIAL PRESIDES. ISO
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HRS PER DIURNAL
DIMINISHING INFLUENCES...WITH ISO SHWRS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOK FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF THE MID STATE ON
WED...PROVIDING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS
MUSH OF THE ERN U.S AS WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PUSHES INTO THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SFC BOUNDARY DEVELOPS FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12 THU. ISO/SCT SHWRS NEAR
TN/AL BORDER POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING HRS ON WED WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDED ISO TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AS DIURNAL
HEATING INFLUENCES KICK IN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ENHANCED ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLAND RIM AND UPPER CUMBERLAND DURING THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BEING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
RANGING AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S PLATEAU TO LOW TO MID 70S TN RIVER
VALLEY REGION. EXPECT SCT SHWRS AND ISO TSTMS TO CONTINUE THRU WED
NIGHT AS MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE EXPECTED APPROACHING 12 THU. WITH
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL WAA SCENARIO...LOWS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10
TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S PLATEAU TO UPPER 50S TN RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

LONG TERM(THU THRU SUN)...
ON THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGING
WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TN LOOK WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE 10C
TO 15C RANGE. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID STATE LOOKS UNSTABLE AS SFC
CAPES RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOWALTER VALUES THROUGHOUT THE
LOWEST LAYERS ARE BELOW ZERO.

STRONG WESTERLY SOUTHERN JET WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT A SLOW CLIP. BEST 850 MB DYNAMICS AND
THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL COME INTO PLAY BY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK RATHER
COPIOUS AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE FRONT.
OVERALL...EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FROPA. DGEX
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.

AS FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY
OUTLOOKED. HOWEVER...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.

AS FOR THE EXT TEMPS...QUITE WARM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN WE
ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MERCURY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S.
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...COOLER AND SEASONAL AIR WILL
RETURN...BUT NO FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




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