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Area Forecast Discussion

807
FXUS64 KOHX 060910
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
310 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MON)

SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM WILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH AS THE AXIS WORKS ACROSS
THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME ADDED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TONIGHT...SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS STRONG NVA PREVAILS. ON SUNDAY...SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NT. BY THEN...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN PLACE AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME
LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FROPA. FURTHERMORE...AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY WITH NUMEROUS IMPULSES UPSTREAM. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. AS WE
MOVE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DOWN TO
BELOW 700 FT AGL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A
GENERAL CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND THEN TO ALL
SNOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH IS RATHER BROAD SO THE
IMPULSES WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. BUT...WE COULD SEE A HALF INCH
OR SO OF SNOW ACCUM ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AS FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPS...WILL SEE A SLOW WARMING TREND JUST
PRIOR TO THE FROPA ON SUNDAY NT. HIGHS WILL REACH 50 FOR MANY AREAS
TODAY AND THEN WELL INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...WILL UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE AS ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT CLOUDS WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND
FALLING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -8C TO -10C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD TO THE CHILL BUT NOT LOOKING TOO TERRIBLY
HIGH...AND WILL GO WITH A WEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH OR SO. HIGH
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL HOLD IN THE 30S...WINDCHILLS OF 25 TO 30 SO
NOT TOO HORRIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MID TN WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS GOING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLATEAU. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LASTING INTO
TUESDAY WOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
LATE WEEK WILL BRING MAINLY DRY WX WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OR SO
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL COVER THE
AREA TOMORROW...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      51  31  54  34  38 /  10   0   0  50  50
CLARKSVILLE    51  30  56  33  37 /  10   0  10  50  50
CROSSVILLE     47  29  51  32  34 /  10   0   0  50  50
COLUMBIA       50  30  54  34  39 /  10   0   0  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   50  29  53  35  39 /  10   0   0  30  40
WAVERLY        51  30  55  34  37 /  10   0  10  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........21
LONG TERM..................13



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