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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KOHX 250824

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
324 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016


(Today thru Mon)

Much quieter evening than 24 hrs ago. Upper ridge stretches from the
Arklatex southeastward to Florida. Nam and Gfs solutions both show
rather poor cape to cap ratios across our northeastern cwa this
afternoon. More favorable ratios exist across the southwestern areas.
In fact, hrrr showing late afternoon development across that area.
Will include a 20 percent chance of showers and tstms for the

On Sunday, cap erosion is much more prevalent. However, dynamics are
absent from the precip equation and will only include a 20 pop. By
Sunday night, upper high begins to move and expand westward. Light
westerlies pick up and a surface boundary will be on approach. The
fropa should occur on Monday afternoon. Therefore, will begin to
increase our pops Sunday night, reaching 50 percent for all areas on

As for any strong to severe tstms on Monday, descent pre and main
frontal forcing will be juxtaposed with a high cape and low shear
environment. Looks like a few strong storms will be possible.

As for the near term temps, mid 90s again for today and Sunday.
Dewpoints are looking a degree or two less than on Friday. Thus, no
advisories. Temps will drop 3-5 degrees F by Monday as the clouds
and convection moves in.

(Tue thru Fri)

Temps will finally fall to around seasonal normal values as the work
week progresses, as a sfc front pushes thru the mid state region as
Tuesday progresses also, with slight cold air advection upper
midwest surface high pressure influences building into our region.
After some mainly prefrontal isolated showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday, dry conditions will persist across the mid state thru Wed
night, with the establishment of a dry nwly flow pattern aloft also
anticipated. Addressed best by the latest GFS solution, a weak
upper level distrubance passage in nwly flow aloft across our area
could bring isolated to scattered light to moderate showers and
thunderstorms activity back to the mid state Thursday into Friday.





VFR with MVFR/IFR fog possible. Fog still looks to be more likely
at KCSV, with MVFR fog developing and some models indicating IFR
and even LIFR possible during the early morning hours. Current obs
at KCSV already have dropping visibilities this evening and look to
continue overnight. KCKV and KBNA have mainly MVFR fog possible
overnight and into the early morning. Fog should clear out by 13Z-
14Z with VFR conditions and light winds during the day tomorrow.


Nashville      95  71  94  72  90 /  10  10  20  40  50
Clarksville    94  73  94  72  90 /  10  10  20  30  50
Crossville     89  67  88  69  84 /  10  10  20  40  50
Columbia       96  71  96  72  89 /  20  10  20  20  50
Lawrenceburg   96  71  96  72  90 /  20  10  20  30  50
Waverly        94  72  94  72  90 /  20  10  20  30  50






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