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Area Forecast Discussion

798
FXUS64 KOHX 281642
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1142 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE MID
STATE, WITH NO ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. A
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS UP, SO
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT THROUGH THE MIDDLE TN TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT
FOG MAY AFFECT THE CSV TERMINAL THROUGH ROUGHLY 14Z BUT SHOULD
CLEAR UP THEREAFTER AS NW WINDS START TO MIX DOWN. SCT-BKN CU ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. A FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TAF
SITES TODAY AS WELL.

TONIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN...WE COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT CSV. LEFT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID STATE.
THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS
INCLUDES 59F AT CKV AND 70 AT BNA...LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
DEWPOINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST
AREAS WHILE HIGH TEMPS TODAY REACH ONLY THE LOWER 80S.

IN THE DAYS TO COME...UPPER TROUGHING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY WED MORNING. FOR THAT REASON...LOWS IN THE 50S WILL BE
COMMONPLACE. THIS WILL BE RATHER CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE.
THE RECORD OF 58F AT BNA WILL BE IN JEOPARDY...AS WELL AS THE 53F AT
CSV.

OTW...TROUGHING THROUGH FRIDAY IS SOMEWHAT BROAD AND ANY APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT EXPECTED. LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY
THIS WEEK BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE EXT FCST...TROUGH TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE WEEKEND
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDED CURVATURE AND SHEAR UPSTREAM ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. MOISTURE RETURN WILL THEN BE STRONGEST EAST OF TN BUT WE
COULD BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE PRECIP AREA. THEREFORE WILL
INCLUDE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ADDED CLOUD COVER...THE ADVERTISED MEX HIGHS LOOK TOO HIGH.
CLIMO IS 89 AND THE MEX IS 88-89 FOR BNA FOR THU THROUGH SUN. HPC
NUMBERS ARE COOLER SO WILL LEAN THAT WAY AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOK REASONABLE. WE WILL GO FROM LOWER 60S...DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...TO THE UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WHEN WE HAVE
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




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