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Area Forecast Discussion

501
FXUS64 KOHX 230433 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1133 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVAITION DISCUSSION.
WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 24/06Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS
EXPECTED. AS PREVIOUSLY EXPLAINED...CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED
THRU THIS PORTION OF FORECAST PERIOD...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION
COULD STILL POSSIBLY PER USUAL LOCAL AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THESE CHANCES TO BE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FM/TEMPO
GROUP AT THIS TIME. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AFTER 24/00Z...BUT WITH MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS
EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE WITH SKC THRU 24/06Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 649 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 23/24Z WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED.
WITH CKV/CSV DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU PERIOD...
BELIEVE FOG FORMATION COULD STILL POSSIBLY OCCUR PER USUAL LOCAL
AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT BELIEVE OVERALL CHANCES LESS THAN AT
22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME...DOES NOT JUSTIFY A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS
TIME...AND REMOVED MENTION IN 23/00Z TAF FORECAST ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 518 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION MID 30S IN MAINLY
LOW LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS LATE IN THE NIGHT ACROSS ALL COUNTIES
TO MATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORY. HIGHLIGHTED THIS ESPECIALLY
IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 158 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE...ALLOWING FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL NIGHT. BEST FROST
AREAS WILL BE VALLEYS...LOW LYING AND AREAS THAT ARE SHELTERED.
THIS MAY NOT BE A WIDESPREAD FROST EVENT BUT I THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH AROUND TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS TO
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT SMALL UPPER RIDGE TO WORK ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EAT INTO UPPER
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT NO RAIN. A
MUCH STRONGER AND BROADER SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
THIS WAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE 70S
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 80 POSSIBLE IN NASHVILLE BY MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL
PLAINS UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THIS WAY. EURO IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN GFS.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&
$$
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