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Area Forecast Discussion

374
FXUS64 KOHX 292242
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
542 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Broke out a late afternoon zone grouping in the suite of forecast
products to deal with isolated convection, which as of 20Z seems
to be mainly across southern portions of the TN River Valley and
just into the Upper Cumberland Region. Even though not the most
idea instability elsewhere across the mid state region, broad
brushed the rest of the mid state with isolated convection possible
thru the remainder of the afternoon hours.

Otherwise, all in all, with only a few periods having a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms, the forecast as the work week
progresses and into the Labor Day Weekend will be mainly dry.
Expect a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly from
Wed afternoon thru Thursday morning, as a surface front
approaches from the Ohio River Valley and eventually pushes south
of the mid state as Thursday progresses, and upper level ridging
influences move wwd and weaken across the southern plains,
allowing more of a nwly flow pattern aloft to become established
across the region, thus supporting weak upper level disturbance
passages Wed into Wed night, aiding in possible convective
development. Until then, after convection dissipates by the late
afternoon hours today, the somewhat disorganized, centered
southern Quebec/northeast U.S. surface high pressure will
persist, with upper level ridging dynamics becoming more enhanced
tonight through much of Tuesday. So no real ending in site in the
short term for muggy seasonal warm lows tonight thru Wednesday
night, with the warmest day of the next seven expected to be on
Tuesday, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s, upper 80s to
around 90 Cumberland Plateau Region. Maybe with a little more
cloud coverage expected by Wednesday afternoon.

After the frontal passage on Thursday, upper level ridging
influences will slowly build across the mid state region Friday
thru the Labor Day Weekend. At the surface, building ridging
influences from another southern Quebec/northeast U.S. based high
pressure system will bring a change to the summer time air mass
that we   are currently experiencing, dropping temperatures to
around, or at least initially on Friday, to a few degrees below
seasonal normal values, to a warm up to seasonal normal values are
expected. Lows temperature values during this time period will
follow this trend also. Do not anticipate any impacts to the mid
state from tropical depression nine at this point, as consensus
forecasts has this tropical disturbance moving into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico by Thursday morning, moving across nrn Florida
peninsula on Thursday, and then moving NEWD into the southern
Atlantic by the later half of the weekend, as that surface front
that goes through us on Thursday will eventually usher this
tropical disturbance out to sea, along with the above mentioned
building upper level ridging dynamics.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Surface high to the north has turned our winds
northeasterly today, as expected, so the advection of slightly
drier air has put a lid on the convection we have seen in past
days. As a result, look for dry weather the next 24 hrs with
generally light wind and only some MVFR fog at CSV during the
early morning. Otherwise, look for VFR wx.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08



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