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Area Forecast Discussion

758
FXUS64 KOHX 301122
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
622 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today thru Sat Night)

Surface ridging influences across the Ohio River Valley Region
along with more of a quasi zonal upper level flow pattern aloft
across the region in response to a closed low across the Hudson
Bay area, should support some passing clouds here and there, with
mostly clear skies expected. As upper level flow develops more of
a nwly characteristic as tonight progresses, look for some
additional cloudiness to work into the mid state region,
supporting partly cloudy skies. A summertime weak surface cold
front will approach the mid state from the Ohio River Valley/Mid
Mississippi Valley Regions as Friday progresses. Some weak upper
level shortwave passages may be possible in a renewed nwly upper
level flow pattern aloft supporting some isolated mainly light
showers and thunderstorms. Latest EURO solution the most
aggressive with this idea, with the other models leaning toward
dry conditions across most if not all of the mid state region for
Friday. Just not the best dynamics for shower/thunderstorm
development, but it is summer, and with diurnal heating influences
kicking in by the late morning into the afternoon hours, plus
local orographic effects, just can not rule out some pop up
showers and thunderstorms. Believe the best chance of these though
will be across northern and western portions of the area during
the afternoon hours. With diurnal effects the main driver for
convection, limited mention of any showers and thunderstorms on
Friday night to northwest and TN River Valley Locations of west
mid state per proximity to surface front.

Summertime weak surface cold front may move into the mid state on
Saturday, before pushing northward as a warm front back into
central KY late Saturday night. More overall atm moisture should
stream into the mid state region from the central plains as shower
and thunderstorm activity should be prevalent across this area,
with upper level moisture riding around/over upper level ridging
influences across the Central Plains,thus supporting increased
moisture advection into the mid state region Friday night through
Saturday night west to east. With in this upper level flow pattern
that develops zonal characteristics across our area as the time
progresses, some embedded weak upper level disturbance passages
are certainly not out of the question, and factoring in, you
guessed it, those sumertime diurnal heating influences, along
with those local orographic effects, the development of mainly
isolated light showers and thunderstorms on Saturday will be
possible. With weak upper level disturbances in flow continuing
through Saturday night, the development of isolated mainly light
showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility.

As for temperatures, look for temperatures to be around seasonal
normal values for today, as afternoon dewpoint values range from
the upper 50s to lower 60s. Another seasonly cool night in store
for the mid state tonight, but expecting enough warm air advection
across the area by Friday afternoon to support afternoon high
temperatures a few degrees warmer than seasonal norms, back in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region, with
an increase in afternoon humidity levels expected also. Lows
Friday night should be around seasonal normal values. With
additional cloud coverage expect across the region Saturday into
Saturday night, a return to temperatures around seasonal normal
values is expected. However, those humidity levels will continue
to creep up by a few degrees, with muggy conditions again
returning to the mid state region. With this additional cloud
coverage Saturday night, lows Saturday night will be a few degrees
warmer than seasonal normal values.

.LONG TERM...
(Sun thru Wed)

The extended forecast will be very warm and humid with the potential
for scattered thunderstorms throughout the period.

On Sunday, a frontal zone will be draped across Mid Tn. The front
will gradually lift northward as a low pressure system begins to
form over the Mid Ms Valley. Highs will reach the mid 80s to lower
90s Sunday. Increasing moisture and instability will result in
scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
Coverage of storms is expected to be around 40 percent.

For Independence Day, the low pressure from the Mid Ms Valley will
move into the Ohio Valley Region. That is where the greatest
coverage of thunderstorms will be, but there will be a better than
average chance for thunderstorms down into Mid TN as well. Coverage
of storms is expected to be around 50 percent, and possibly higher
over our northern counties, so some July 4th activities may be
impacted. Instability and wind fields will be enhanced with the low
pressure, so a few strong storms could develop by fireworks time,
especially over our northwest counties.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the front north of TN will dissipate
and upper level heights will rise. Hot and humid conditions are
expected for midweek with isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. Dry high pressure will keep skies mainly clear with light NNE
winds.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......31
AVIATION........13



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