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Area Forecast Discussion

258
FXUS64 KOHX 240249
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
949 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.EVENING UPDATE...

CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDDLE TN LATE
THIS EVENING AS A COOL FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. AS OF 930PM...THE FRONT WAS THROUGH OUR NWRN
THIRD BUT THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL LAGS QUITE A BIT. COULD
STILL SEE A FEW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS SO KEPT POPS IN OVERNIGHT
EVERYWHERE. TAILORED THE LIKELY POPS TO WHERE ITS CURRENTLY
RAINING AND POINTS EASTWARD.

NO OTHER LARGE CHANGES MADE. RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO AS CLOUDS AND MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO
MUCH...AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS. WE
COULD HAVE FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT THINK IT WILL BE MORE OF A
STRATUS BUILDDOWN THAN TRUE FOG. LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

FORECAST UPDATE SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IS STRETCHING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS KY AT ISSUANCE. IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND THE AREA WILL HELP TO SPARK TS ACTIVITY
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FLIGHT CATEGORIES REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE
THIS ACTIVITY...BUT SHOULD FALL TO IFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD IF ANY
TERMINAL IS DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY TS.

BY 05Z...TS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WANING...IF NOT OVER...FOR OUR
TERMINALS. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO FOCUS ON THE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
TRAILING LOW CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 14-15Z THURSDAY MORNING. IFR TO
MVFR VIS AND CIG WILL LIKELY PLAGUE ALL 3 TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
TIME...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR BY 18Z THURSDAY.

WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY WEST TO NW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. A 10KT NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL BE
COMMON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





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